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Reliability
Probability Concept
Department of Marine Engineering
FTK ‐ ITS
System Reliability – week II
Maintainability is the probability that a failed
component or system will be restored or repaired to a
specified condition within a period of time when
maintenance is performed in accordance with
prescribed procedures.
• Consider repair time, waiting time, administrative time,
spare part availability etc.
• Consider only inherent repair time of component/system.
Availability
Availability is the probability that a component or
system is performing its required function at a given
point in time when used under stated operating
condition.
• Consider repair time, waiting time, administrative time,
spare part availability etc.
• Consider only inherent repair time of component/system.
Random event
• A failure can be described as random event
• A random event E will occur with the probability of
P(E), where
The collection of all possible event is called as sample
space S.
S A B
In B only
A & B
In A only
Some Basic Relationships of
Probability
• There are some basic probability relationships that
can be used to compute the probability of an event
without knowledge of all the sample point
probabilities.
– Complement of an event
– Union of two events
– Intersection of two events
– Mutually exclusive events
7
Some Basic Relationships of Probability
Complement Union
• Union of events A and B is the event
• Complement of A is containing in event A or B or both
• 1 • Denoted by ∪
• ∪ is the probability that
either A or B occurs
Intersection Mutually exclusive
• Joint (intersection) probability is then can be
expressed as
∩ . 9
Bayes’ Theorem (two‐event case)
10
Random Variables
A random variables is a variable that takes on numerical
values in accordance with some probability
distributions.
Discrete random variable Continuous random variable
• A finite/infinite number • Any numerical value in an
sequence of values, such as interval, for example 0<X<20
0,1,2,3…… • Probability distribution:
• Probability distribution: Probability density function
Probability mass function (PDF)
(PMF) • Exponential distribution,
• Binomial distribution, normal distribution
poisson distribution
Reliability Model
Reliability of component/system can be expressed
using probability function:
• Reliability function
• Cumulative distribution function (CDF)
• Probability density function (PDF)
• Hazard rate function
Failure Distribution
Probability Density Function (PDF) Reliability Function
T continuous random variable of time
to failure
t period of time when component is
probable to operate as its function
Pr
1 Pr
0 0
lim 1
Cumulative Distribution
→ Function (CDF)
0 and 1
Hazard Rate Function
Hazard rate/failure rate is an instantaneous rate of
failure at time t.
Bathtup Failure Rate
Pr ∆ ∆
Conditional probability of failure given that the
∆
system has survived to time t:
∆
Conditional probability/unit time:
.∆
∆
lim . = .
∆ → ∆ DFR = Decreasing Failure rate
IFR = Increasing Failure Rate
CFR = Constant Failure rate
Bath Up Curve
Charac Caused by Reduced by
terized
by
Burn‐In DFR Manufacturing defect: Burn‐in testing
cracks, defective parts, Screening
poor QC, Quality control
contamination, bad Acceptance testing
installation
Useful life CFR Environment random Redundancy
loads, human error Excess strength
Wear ‐ out IFR Fatigue corrosion Derating, Preventive
Aging, Friction, Cyclical maintenance, Parts
loading replacement, Increase
technology
Mean Time To Failure (MTTF)
•
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Pustaka
Reliability Evaluation of Engineering System, R.
Billinton
Penilaian Risiko Pipa Gas Bawah Laut, KBA,
DN, MA, KS
Reliability System Theory, Hoyland
Reliability, maintainability, AKS Jardine
Statistics for Engineers and economics, Anderson