WS4: Risk Estimation & Evaluation

Instruction: For each risk scenario,

determine the risk level and magnitude
Risk Likelihood Consequence Risk Risk
Scenario Level Magnitude
Bidders will not Almost Catastrophic 25 Extreme
participate in
bidding process for Certain
infra projects
(event) due to the
presence of armed
groups in the
barangay (source)
resulting in non-
implementation of
the Barangay
Bridge
(consequence)
 Risk Estimation: Likelihood
Likelihood of Impact
Probability
Likelihood Description Frequency Percentage

Recurring event during the

Almost Occurs more than twice
life-time of an operation / Over 99% probability
Certain per year
project

Event that may occur

frequently during the life- Typically occurs once
Likely >50% probability
time of an operation / or twice per year
project

Event that may occur

Typically occurs in 1-10
Possible during the life-time of an >10% probability
years
operation / project

Event that is unlikely to

Typically occurs in 10-
Unlikely occur during the life-time of >1% probability
100 years
an operation / project

Event that is very unlikely

Greater than 100 year
Rare to occur during the life-time <1% probability
event
of an operation / project
Risk Estimation: Consequence
Consequence Safety
• Low level short term subjective inconvenience
Insignificant or symptoms.
• Typically a first aid and no medical treatment.
• Reversible injuries requiring treatment, but
Minor does not lead to restricted duties.
• Typically a medical treatment
• Reversible injury or moderate irreversible
damage or impairment to one or more
Moderate persons.
• Typically a lost time injury.
• Single fatality and/or severe irreversible
Major damage or severe impairment to one or more
persons
• Multiple fatalities or permanent damage to
Catastrophic multiple people.
 Risk Level & Magnitude
Likelihood Consequence

Insignificant Minor Moderate Catastrophic

Major (4)
(1) (2) (3) (5)

Almost High High Extreme Extreme Extreme

certain (5) (5) (10) (15) (20) (25)

Medium High High Extreme Extreme

Likely (4)
(4) (8) (12) (16) (20)

Low Medium High Extreme Extreme

Possible (3)
(3) (6) (9) (12) (15)

Low Low Medium High Extreme

Unlikely (2)
(2) (4) (6) (8) (10)

Low Low Medium High High

Rare (1)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
 …Risk Criteria
1 2 3
Likelihood Consequence Magnitude
Levels Criteria Levels Criteria Levels Guidelines
for Action
Almost Example: Catastrophic Extreme Example:
Certain Defect Requires
occurs in detailed
10% of all action plan
products before taking
any action
Likely Major Requires High
replacement of
defective products
amounting to at least
P__ per month

Possible Moderate Medium

Unlikely Minor Low
Rare Insignificant
 Risk Evaluation
Comparing results of risk analysis with
the established risk criteria

Low Do nothing further

Treat risks
Medium
Probe to understand risks
High
Maintain existing controls

Extreme Reconsider objectives