Statistics and Probability

By Shafqat Shahzoor
Lecturer, BSRS, MUET Jamshoro

Shafqat Shahzoor 1
 Multiplicative rules of Probability
• Independent Events: Two events are said to be independent
events if the occurrence of one event does not affect the
occurrence of the other event.
• Independent Events:
Note that: A ∩ B means both
• P A∩B =P A .P B A and B.
• Dependent Events:
• P A ∩B =P A .P B|A
• Consider the Diagram on 3rd slide.

Shafqat Shahzoor 2
 Multiplicative rules of Probability
Conditional Probability
• Conditional Probability: When two event follow each other,
then some times the probability of second event is than
influenced by the information that first event has already
occurred. The probability of any event with that reduced
sample space is known as conditional probability.
• Definition: Probability of an event A occurs such that B has
already occurred is denoted by P(A|B) and is defined as:
• P A|B =P A∩B /P B , provided P(B) is not zero.

Note that: 1. Events are said to be dependent.

2. In conditional probability the sample space is reduced to the event
that has already occur, for the event that is to occur.

Shafqat Shahzoor 3
 Multiplicative rules of Probability
Here we are concern with
finding probability of B only.
No extra information.
Diagrams

Note that , Here we are concern

with finding probability of B with
extra information that A has
occurred.

What about this? Shafqat Shahzoor 4

 Multiplicative rules of Probability

Examples:
• Examples: Three of the light bulbs in a box of ten bulbs are
burnt out or otherwise defective. If two bulbs are selected at
random without replacement and tested:
i. What is the probability that exactly one defective bulb is
found?
ii. What is the probability that exactly two defective bulbs
are found? Note: Events are dependent because bulbs are not replaced.
(size of sample space will be reduced hence probability of
• Solution: second is affected).
• Let D1 be the event for first is defective, D2 be event for
second is defective, N1 and N 2 be events for non defectives.
• Corresponding probabilities are;

Shafqat Shahzoor 5
 Multiplicative rules of Probability

Examples:
• i. Probability of exactly one is defective.
1st one is defective or 2nd one is defective

P{( D1  N 2 )U ( N1  D2 )}  P( D1 ).P( N 2 | D1 )  P( N1 ).P( D1 | N1 )

 (3 / 10).(7 / 9)  (7 / 10)(3 / 9)  7 / 30  7 / 30  14 / 30.

• ii. Probability of two are defective.

P( D1  D2 )  P( D1 ).P( D2 | D1 )  (3 / 10).(2 / 9)  1 / 15.

Shafqat Shahzoor 6
 Multiplicative rules of Probability

Examples
• Example: The circuit shown below operates if there is a path
of functional devices from left to right. The probability that
each device functions is shown on the graph. Assume that
devices fail independently, what is the probabilities that the
circuit operates?
0.9 0.95

0.9 0.99

0.9 0.95

Shafqat Shahzoor 7
 Multiplicative rules of Probability

Examples
• Solution: Reliability of a system connected in
series, that is,
R1
R1 R2 R3
R2
• R  R1R2 R3
• Reliability of a system connected R3

in parallel, that is,

R  1  (1  R1 )(1  R2 )(1  R3 )

Shafqat Shahzoor 8
 Multiplicative rules of Probability

Examples
• Solution:
R  [1  {(1  0.9)(1  0.9)(1  0.9)][1  {(1  0.95)(1  0.95)}][0.99]
 (1  0.001)(1  0.0025)(0.99)
 (0.999)(0.9975)(0.99)  0.987.

Shafqat Shahzoor 9
 Multiplicative rules of Probability

Examples
• Example: The probability that a regular scheduled flight departs on
time is 0.83, the probability that it arrives on time is 0.82 and the
probability that it departs and arrives on time is 0.78. Find the
probability that on a given day the regular flight:
• i. Arrives on time given that it departs on time.
• ii. Departs on time given that it arrives on time.
• Solution:
• Let A and D be events for flight arrives and departs on time
respectively, then corresponding probabilities are,
• P(A)=0.83, P(D)=0.82 and P( A  D)  0.78.
i. P( A  D) 0.78 ii. P( A  D) 0.78
P ( A | D)   . P ( A | D)   .
P( D) 0.82 P( D) 0.83

Shafqat Shahzoor 10
 Multiplicative rules of Probability

Examples
• Example: The probability that an ambulance is available when
called is 0.80 and that fire engine is available when needed is
0.90. If both ambulance and fire engine work independently,
What is the probability that:
• i. Both of them are available
when called ?
• ii. Both of them are not available
when called ?
• iii. Ambulance is available but not the fire engine ?
• Iv. Fire engine is available but not the ambulance ?
• Solution: Try Your self…
Shafqat Shahzoor 11
 Multiplicative rules of Probability

Examples
• Example: The following table summarizes the analysis of samples of
galvanized steel for coating weight and surface roughness:
Coating Weight
High Low
Surface High 12 16
Roughness How 88 34

• (a) If the coating weight of a sample is high, what is the probability

that the surface roughness is high?
• (b) If the surface roughness of a sample is high, what is the
probability that the coating weight is high?
• (c) If the surface roughness of a sample is low, what is the
probability that the coating weight is low?
• Solution: Try Your self…
Shafqat Shahzoor 12