BASIC ELEMENTS OF

PROBABILITY
 Goals:
• Define what probability is.
• Describe the classical, frequency, and subjective
approaches to probability.
• Understand the terms: experiment, event, result,
permutations, and combinations.
• Make inferences about a variable in the population from a
sample.
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 BASIC CONCEPTS
• An experiment is a process that leads to one (and only one)
of several possible observations occurring.
• A random experiment is the set of tests performed under the
same conditions and whose results are unpredictable

• When a coin is tossed, there are two

possible outcomes: heads (H) or tails (T)

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 BASIC CONCEPTS
• Sample Space: it is the set of all possible results of a random
experiment. It is denoted by  .
• It is classified in:
• Finite
• Infinite Countable
• Infinity not countable

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4
 BASIC CONCEPTS

• An event or event is a set of one or more results of an

experiment.
• Event or Safe Event is the sample space, it always
occurs. It is denoted by  .
• Event or Impossible Event: it is one that will not
inevitably occur, it is called the empty set  .

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 Mutually exclusive events

• The events are mutually exclusive if the occurrence

of either means that none of the other events can
occur at the same time.
• Example: That 1 and 2 are rolled simultaneously in
the throwing of a dice.
• Events are independent if the occurrence of one
event does not affect the occurrence of another.

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 Definitions

• Probability is a measure of the relative chance that an

event will occur.
• It can assume values ​between zero and one inclusive.
• A value close to zero means that the event is unlikely
to happen. A value close to one means that the event
is highly likely to happen.
• There are three definitions of probability: classical,
frequency, and subjective. 7
Classic or “a priori” probability

• If an event can occur in N ways, which are mutually

exclusive and equally probable, and if m of those
events have a characteristic E, the probability of
occurrence of E is equal to m / N.
m nº de casos favorables
P( E )   P
N nº de casos posibles

To calculate this probability it is not necessary to

perform the experiment.
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Classic or “a priori” probability

• EXERCISE: If a card is randomly selected from a

well-shuffled deck, what is the probability of
drawing a diamond?

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 Frequency, Relative or "a
posteriori" Probability
• If some process is repeated in a large number of
times n, and if some resulting event, with the
characteristic E occurs m times, the relative
frequency of the occurrence of E is:
m nº de casos favorables
P( E )  
n n º de repeciciones

Lim P(E) = P, that is, the relative probability tends to

P when n  .
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 Frequency, Relative or "a
posteriori" Probability
• Example: Successively tossing a balanced coin 10
times. What is the relative frequency of obtaining
heads?

m nº de casos favorables
P( E )  
n n º de repeciciones

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12
 Example 1

• An unloaded die is rolled once.

• The experiment is to roll the dice.
• Possible outcomes are the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
and 6.
• An event is the occurrence of an even number. That
is, the numbers 2, 4 and 6.

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 Example 2
• In Professor Osma's academic department, a total of
56 “A” grades have been assigned out of a total of
82 students. What is the probability that a student in
your section this semester will receive an “A”
grade?
• This is an example of the empirical definition of
probability.
• Find the probability of selecting an “A” grade
student:
P(A) =?
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 Subjective probability

• Examples of subjective probability are:

• Estimate the possibility of Colombia
qualifying for the 2026 World Cup.
• Evaluate the probability that the Coca Cola
company will lose its number 1 place in the
total units sold, compared to Postobon, in a
period of two years.
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 Probability axioms

• Let  and E be any sample space and any event,

respectively. We will call P (E) a probability function
on the sample space  if it satisfies the following
axioms:
• P(E)  0
• P() = 1
• If for events E1, E2, ..., it is true EiEj=  ij 
P(E1  E2..)= P(E1) + P(E2) +...
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 Set theory and
Notions:
notation
•Set
•Unitary set
•Empty or null set
•Universal set
•Subset
•Venn Diagram

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 Set theory and notation

Operations between sets

•Union
•Intersection
•Complement
•Morgan's Laws

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21
 Counting principles

• Multiplication Formula: If there are m ways to do

one thing, and n ways to do another, there will be m
x n ways to do both.
• Example 10
Dr. Velasco has 10 shirts and 8 ties. How many sets
of shirt and tie can he have?
(10)(8) = 80
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23
 Counting principles

• Permutation: An arrangement or arrangement of r

objects selected from a single group of n possible
objects.
• Note: The order of the arrangement is important
in permutations.
n!
n Pr 
(n  r )!

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 Principios de conteo

• A combination is the number of ways to choose r

objects from a group of n objects regardless of the
order:

n!
nC r 
r! (n  r )!

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 Example 11

• There are 12 players on the college basketball

team. The manager must choose 5 players from the
12 on the team to form his starting line. How many
different ways can you do it?

12!
12C 5   792
5! (12  5)!

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 Example 11 (Continued)

• Assuming that in addition to forming groups of

5 players, the coach must respect the order of
them according to their ability.

12!
12 P 5   95,040
(12  5)!

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 Basic rules of probability

If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the

special rule of addition indicates that the
probability of one or the other of the events
occurring is equal to the sum of their probabilities.

P(A o B) = P(A) + P(B)

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 Example 3
• Avianca's flight office has the following information
registered in its flight log between Bogotá and
Bucaramanga.

Arrivals Frequency
Early 100
On time 800
Late 75
cancelled 25
Total 1000
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 Example 3 (Continued)
• If A is the event that the flight arrives early, then:
P(A) = 100/1000 = 0.10
• If B is the event that the flight is late, then:
P (B) = 75/1000 = 0.075
• The probability of the flight arriving early or late
is:
• P(A o B) = P(A) + P(B) = 0.10 + 0.075 = 0.175

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El municipio, ha clasificado tres categorías de SISBEN el año pasado (A, B, C), de los carnés del Sisben, el 70%
ha sido clasificado como A, el 20% como B y el 10% como C. De los clasificados como A, el 50% fue emitido
por la Nación, el 40% por el Departamento y el 10% por el Municipio. De los clasificados como B, el 60% fue
de la nación, el 20% por el departamento y el 20% por el municipio. De los clasificados como C, el 90% fue
emitido por la Nación, el 5% por el Departamento y el 5% por el Municipio. a) Que proporción de carnés de
Sisben han sido emitidos por el Departamento?, b) Si el departamento va ha emitir un nuevo carné. Cuál es
la probabilidad de que recibirá clasificación de A?, c) Que proporción de carnés de Sisben no han sido
emitidos por el municipio?

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Un equipo de baloncesto juega 70 por ciento de sus partidos de noche, y 30 por
ciento de día. El equipo gana el 50 por ciento de los partidos de noche y el 90 por
ciento de sus partidos de día. Según el periódico de hoy, ganaron ayer. ¿Cuál es la
probabilidad de que el partido haya sido jugado de noche?

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Durante las elecciones de la mesa directiva de los representantes de los estudiantes
de una escuela votaron, entre hombres y mujeres, 250 estudiantes por los
candidatos A y B. 85 mujeres votaron por el candidato B y de los 90 votos del
candidato A, 36 eran hombres. Si se escoge aleatoriamente un estudiante,
(a)¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que sea mujer?
(b)Si el estudiante escogido es una mujer, ¿cuál es la probabilidad de que haya
votado por el candidato A?
(c)Si el estudiante escogido votó por el candidato A, ¿cuál es la probabilidad de que
sea hombre?

       

       

       

       

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El municipio, ha clasificado tres categorías de SISBEN el año pasado (A, B, C), de los carnés del Sisben, el
70% ha sido clasificado como A, el 20% como B y el 10% como C. De los clasificados como A, el 50% fue
emitido por la Nación, el 40% por el Departamento y el 10% por el Municipio. De los clasificados como B, el
60% fue de la nación, el 20% por el departamento y el 20% por el municipio. De los clasificados como C, el
90% fue emitido por la Nación, el 5% por el Departamento y el 5% por el Municipio. a) Que proporción de
carnés de Sisben han sido emitidos por el Departamento?, b) Si el departamento va ha emitir un nuevo
carné. ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que recibirá clasificación de A?, c) Que proporción de carnés de Sisben
no han sido emitidos por el municipio?

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En tres regiones del país, se tienen diferentes posibilidades de que ataque un virus contagioso,
estas son: Caribe, 30%, Cafetera 10% y Pacifico 6O%. Además, se sabe que el porcentaje de
personas que se han inmunizado contra el virus, por región es del 20%, 40% y 5%
respectivamente. a) Calcule la probabilidad de que si se selecciona una persona al azar ésta no
sea del Caribe, b) Probabilidad de que se haya inmunizado, c) si se sabe que es del eje cafetero,
¿cuál es la probabilidad que no se haya inmunizado contra el virus?, d) si se sabe que se
inmunizó, ¿cuál es la probabilidad de que sea del Pacifico?

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 The complement rule

• The complement rule is used to determine the

probability that an event occurs, subtracting
from 1 the probability that said event does not
occur.
• If P (A) is the probability of an event A and P
(~ A) is the probability of A's complement,
P(A) + P(~A) = 1 o P(A) = 1 – P(~A)
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 The Complement Rule (Continued)

• A Venn diagram illustrating the complement rule

would look like this:

A ~A

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 Example 4

• Returning to Example 3, use the complement rule

to find the probability of an early event (A) or a
late event (B).
• If C is the event that the flight arrives on time, then
P (C) = 800/1000 = 0.8
• If D is the event that the flight is canceled, then P
(D) = 25/1000 = 0.025

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 Example 4 (Continued)
P(A o B) = 1 - P(C o D)
= 1 - [.8 +.025] =0.175

D
C
.025
.8

~(C o D) = (A o B)
.175

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 The general rule of addition

• If A and B are two events that are not mutually

exclusive, then P (A or B) is given by the following
formula:

• P(A o B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A y B)

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 The General Rule of Addition
(Continued)

• The Venn diagram illustrates this rule:

AyB

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 Example 5

• In a sample of 500 students, 225 claimed to have a

stereo, 175 claimed to have a TV, and 100 claimed
to have both.

TV
75

Ambos
Estéreo 100
125
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 Example 5 (Continued)

• If a student is randomly selected, what is the

probability that the student has only one stereo,
only one TV, and both a stereo and a TV?P(S) =
225/500 = 0.45
• P(T) = 175/500 = 0.35
• P(S y T) = 100/500 = 0.20

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 Example 5 (Continued)

• If a student is selected at random, what is the

probability that they have a stereo or TV in their
room?
• P(S o T) = P(S) + P(T) - P(S yT)
= 0.45 + 0.35 - 0.20 = 0.60

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 Joint probability

• Joint probability: measures the possibility that two

or more events occur simultaneously.
• An example might be the event that a randomly
chosen student has both a stereo and a TV in his
room.

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 Special rule of multiplication

• The special rule of multiplication requires

that two events A and B be independent.
• Two events A and B are independent if the
occurrence of one does not affect the
probability of the other occurring. This rule
is written:
• P(A y B) = P(A)P(B)
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 Example 6

• Cristina has two shares, IBM and GE. The

probability that the IBM stock will increase
in value next year is 0.5, and the probability
that the GE stock will increase in value next
year is 0.7. Assume that the two stocks are
independent events. What is the probability
that both stocks will increase in value next
year?
P(IBM y GE) = (0.5)(0.7) = 0.35
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 Example 6 (Continued)

• What is the probability that at least one of these

stocks will increase in value over the next year?

• P (at least one)= (0.5)(0.3) + (0.5)(0.7) + (0.7)(0.5)

= 0.15 + 0.35 +0.35 = 0.85

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 Conditional probability

• Conditional probability is the probability that a

given event will occur, given that another event has
already occurred.
• The probability of event A occurring given that
event B has occurred is written P (A / B).

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 General rule of multiplication

• The general rule of multiplication is used to

find the joint probability that two events
will occur.
• The rule states that given two events A and
B, the joint probability that both occur is
found by multiplying the probability that A
occurs, by the conditional probability that
event B.
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 General rule of multiplication

• The joint probability P (A and B) is given by the

following formula:

• P(A y B) = P(A)P(B/A)
o
P(A y B) =
P(B)P(A/B)
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 Example 7
• The director of the UDES Faculty of Engineering collected the
following information about undergraduate students at his
school:

specialty Man Woman Total

Industrial 170 110 280
Civil 120 100 220
Environmental 160 70 230
Software 150 120 270
Total 600 400 1000

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 Example 7 (Continued)

• If a student is randomly selected, what is the

probability that the student is a female (F)
Industrial Intern (A)?
P(A y F) = 110/1000
• Given that the student is a woman, what is the
probability that she is an Industrial intern?
P(A/F) = P(A y F)/P(F) =
[110/1000]/[400/1000] = 0.275
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 Tree diagram
• The tree diagram is a useful graphical representation for
organizing calculations that span multiple stages. Each
segment in the tree is a stage of the problem. The
probabilities written near the branches are the conditional
probabilities of the experiment.

• Example 8
In a bag containing 7 red chips and 5 blue chips, you select
two chips one after the other without replacing it. Create a
tree diagram showing this information.

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 Example 8 (Continued)
6/11 Rojo 2
•
7/12 Rojo 1
Azul 2
5/11
7/11 Rojo 2
Azul 1
5/12
Azul 2
4/11

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 Bayes theorem
• Bayes' Theorem is a method that uses revised
probability based on additional information.
• It is calculated using the following formula:

P( A1 ) P ( B / A1 )
P( A1 | B ) 
P( A1 ) P ( B / A1 )  P( A2 ) P( B / A2 )

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 Example 9

• A cola bottling company received several

complaints about the low content of its
bottles. A complaint was received today, but
the production manager cannot identify
which of the two plants in Aguascalientes
(A or B) filled these bottles. What is the
probability that the defective bottles come
from plant A?
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 Example 9 (Continued)

• The following table summarizes the production

experience of said bottler:
% of the total % of bottles
production faulty
A 55 3

B 45 4

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 Example 9 (Continued)

P ( A) P (U / A)
P( A / U ) 
P ( A) P (U / A)  P ( B ) P (U / B )
.55(.03)
  .4783
.55(.03)  .45(.04)

• The probability that the bottles were filled at plant A

decreased from 0.55 to 0.4783

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