Chapter Five and Six

5. Elementary Probability
Probability is
 a measure of chance.
 A numerical measure of uncertainty.
Chance, in this context, means there is a possibility
that some sort of event will occur or will not occur.
For example
 The manager needs to determine the probability that
the manufacturing process of RAM chips will
produce 10 defective chips in a given shift.
 This small example shows that the theory of probability
plays a fundamental role in dealing with problems
where there is any kind of uncertainty. 1
Terminology
Random Experiment
An experiment is called a random experiment if when
conducted repeatedly under essentially homogeneous
conditions, the result is not unique but may be any one of
the various possible outcomes.
Trial and Event
 Performing of a random experiment is called a trial and
 outcome or combination of outcomes are termed as
events.
Event is called simple if it corresponds to a single possible
outcome of the experiment or trial
otherwise it is known as a compound or composite event.
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A few examples of quite familiar repetitive operations are
 rolling a die,
 tossing two coins,
 drawing five screws “at random” from a box of 100 screws,
 dealing 13 cards from a thoroughly shuffled deck of playing
cards,
 filling a 12-oz can with beer by an automatic filling machine,
 drawing a piece of steel rod, and testing it on a machine
until it breaks,
 firing a rifle at a target 100 yards away
An important feature of a repetitive operation is illustrated by
the repetitive operation of firing a rifle at a 100-yard target.
• The shooter either hits the target or misses the target.
• The possible outcomes “hit” or “miss” are referred to as
outcomes of the experiment “firing at a target 100 yards
away.” 3
The sample space of the experiment
• The set of all possible outcomes under specific
conditions if an experiment was performed once and is
denoted by S.
Mutually Exclusive Events or Cases.
• Two or more events are said to be mutually exclusive if
the happening of any one of them excludes the
happening of all others in the same experiment.
Equally Likely Cases.
• The outcomes are said to be equally likely or equally
probable if none of them is expected to occur in
preference to other.
Independent Events.
• Events are said to be independent of each other if
happening of any one of them is not affected by and
does not affect the happening of any one of others. 4
TECHNIQUES OF COUNTING SAMPLE POINTS
• The problem of computing probabilities of events in
finite sample spaces where equal probabilities are
assigned to the elements reduces to the operation
of counting the elements that make up the events
in the given sample space.

• Counting such elements is often greatly simplified

by the use of a tree diagram and the rules for
permutations and combinations.

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Tree Diagram
A tree diagram is a tool that is useful not only in
describing the sample points but also in listing them in a
systematic way.
Example (Constructing a tree diagram)
Consider a random experiment consisting of three trials.
• The first trial is testing a chip taken from the production
line
• The second is randomly selecting a part from the box
containing parts produced by six different
manufacturers, and
• The third is, again, testing a chip off the production
line.
The interest in this experiment is in describing and listing
the sample points in the sample space of the experiment.
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Solution:
• The first trial in this experiment has two possible
outcomes: the chip could be defective (D) or non-
defective (N);
• The second trial has six possible outcomes because
the part could come from manufacturer 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
or 6; and
• The third, again, has two possible outcomes (D, N).

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• The tree diagram associated with this experiment is

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• The sample space S in this example is

S = {D1D, D1N, D2D, D2N, D3D, D3N, D4D, D4N, D5D,

D5N, D6D, D6N, N1D, N1N, N2D, N2N,N3D, N3N,N4D,
N4N,N5D, N5N,N6D, N6N}.

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Permutations
• Suppose that we have n distinct objects O1, O2,
...,On. We can determine how many different
sequences(arrangements) of x objects can be
formed by choosing x objects in succession from the
n objects where 1 ≤ x ≤ n.
• A permutation of n different objects taken r at a
time, denoted by nPr, is an ordered arrangement of
only r objects of the n objects.

In particular, the total number of permutations of n

distinct objects, taken all at a time is given by
𝑛𝑃𝑛 = 𝑛 ! 10
Combination
• A combination of n different objects taken r at a
𝑛
time, denoted by nCr or 𝑟 is a selection of only r
objects out of the n objects, without any regard to
the order of arrangement.
Example :
1. Suppose we have letters A,B,C,D. how many
permutation are there
A. Taking all letters
B. Taking only two letters
2. There are five persons in a factory that can fit the
editorial position.in how many ways can two persons
be chosen out of the five people?
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3. An engineer in technical sales must visit plants in
Vancouver, Toronto, and Winnipeg. How many
different sequences or orders of visiting these
three plants are possible?
4. printed circuit board may be purchased from five
suppliers. In how many ways can three suppliers
be chosen from the five?
5. Five manufacturers produce a certain electronic
device, whose quality varies from manufacturer to
manufacturer. If you were to select three
manufacturers at random, what is the chance that
the selection would be made?
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Measure and rules in probability
A. Classical or Mathematical Approach
• If a random experiment results in N exhaustive, mutually exclusive
and equally likely outcomes; out of which M are favorable to the
happening of an event A, then the probability of occurrence of A,
usually denoted by P (A) is given by:
favorablecases to A
P( A) 
exhaustiveNo. of cases

Example: In a given basket there is 3 yellow, 4 black and 3

white balls. What is the probability of selecting a black ball?
Solution: Let event A = event of selecting black ball.
favorablecases to A
P (A) = exhaustiveNo. of cases

= 4/10 = 0.4

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Axiomatic Approach
Given a sample space of a random experiment, the probability
of the occurrence of any event A is defined as a set function P
(A) satisfying the following axioms:
• P (A) is real and non-negative i.e. 0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1.
• P(S) = 1 where S is the sample space.
• P ( )  0 , for impossible event.
• If A1, A2 … An. . . . is any finite or infinite sequence of disjoint
events of S, then,
 k  k
P U Ai  
i 1 
 P( A )
i 1
i

• If A and B are two independent events then the chance of

occurrence of both events is,
P (A n B) = P (A) * P (B)
• Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if A occurs and B
does not occur and vice versa. i.e. P (A n B) = 0
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6. Random Variables and Probability Distributions
RANDOM VARIABLES
 A random variable (r.v.) we mean a real number X associated with the outcomes of
a random experiment.
You can think of many examples of random variables:
 x = Number of defects on a randomly selected piece of furniture .
 x = test score for a randomly selected college applicant .
 x =Number of telephone calls received by a crisis intervention hotline during a
randomly selected time period.
Example : a random experiment of three tosses of a coin (or three coins tossed
simultaneously).
Then the sample space S as given below : S = {HHH, HTH, THH, TTH, HHT, HTT, THT,
TTT }
Let us consider the variable X, which is the number of heads obtained.
Then, X is a random variable which can take any one of the values 0, 1 or 2.
Outcome : HHH HTH THH TTH HHT HTT THT TTT
Values of X : 3,2,2,1,2,1,1,0
If the sample points in the above order be denoted by w1, w2, w3, …, w8 then to
each outcome w of the random experiment, we can assign a real number
X = X(w). For example, X(w1) = 3, X(w2) = 2, X(w3) = 2, …, X(w8) = 0. 15
Discrete and Continuous Random Variables
 If the random variable X assumes only a finite or countably infinite
set of values it is known as discrete random variable.
For example marks obtained by students in a test, the number of
students in a college, the number of defective mangoes in a basket of
mangoes, number of accidents taking place on a busy road, etc., are all
discrete random variables.
 On the other hand, if the r.v. X can assume infinite and uncountable
set of values, it is said to be a continuous r.v.
For example the age, height or weight of students in a class are all
continuous random variables.
 In case of a continuous random variable we usually talk of the value
in a particular interval and not at a point.
Generally discrete r.v.’s, represent counted data while
continuous r.v.’s represent measured data.
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PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF A DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE

It is usually represented in a tabular form given below :

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Example
A die is tossed twice. Getting ‘an odd number’ is
termed as a success. Find the probability distribution
of the number of successes.

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Common Discrete Probability Distributions: Binomial
and Poisson
A. Binomial distribution
Definition : A discrete random variable X is said to follow
a Binomial distribution with parameters n and p, written
as X ~ Bi(n , p) or X ~ B(n , p), if its distribution is given by
n x n−x
p (1 − p) for x = 0,1,2, … , n
P X=x = x .
0 elsewhere
Where, x = number of successes assumes values
n = number of trails.
p = probability of success; 0 ≤ p ≤ 1.
This important distribution applies in some cases to
repeated trials where there are only two possible
outcomes:
 heads or tails, success or failure, defective item or
good item, or many other possible pairs. 19
The requirements for using the binomial distribution
are as follows:
• The outcome is determined completely by chance.
• There are only two possible outcomes.
• All trials have the same probability for a particular outcome in a single
trial. Let this constant probability for a single trial be p.
• The number of trials, n, must be fixed, regardless of the outcome of
each trial.

let X be a binomially distributed random variable

with parameters p, based on n repetitions of an
experiment.
Then, E(X) = np and Var(X) = npq.
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Example
1. On the basis of past experience, the probability that a certain electrical component will be
satisfactory is 0.98. The components are sampled item by item from continuous production.
In a sample of five components, what are the probabilities of finding
(a) zero,
(b) exactly one,
(c) exactly two,
(d) two or more defectives ?
Solution :
The requirements of the binomial distribution are met.
n = 5, p = 0.98, q = 0.02, where p is taken to be the probability that an item will be satisfactory,
and so q is the probability that an item will be defective.

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B. Poisson Distribution
Definition: A random variable X is said to have a Poisson
distribution with parameter λ >0 if its distribution is given by,
𝐞−𝛌 𝛌𝐱
𝐏 𝐗=𝐱 = 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐱 = 𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, … . .
𝐱!
𝟎𝐞𝐥𝐬𝐞𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞
Where x=count of the number of events that occur in a certain
time interval or spatial area.
We write as 𝐗~𝐏𝐢𝐬(𝛌).
• The Poisson distribution is applicable to events occurring in
some time interval, region, area, space etc.
If X has a Poisson distribution with parameter λ , then
• E(X) = λ and Var(X) = λ .
Examples
of occurrences to which the Poisson distribution often applies
include counts from collisions of cars at a specific intersection
under specific conditions, flaws in a casting, and telephone calls
to a particular telephone or office under particular conditions.
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Example
The average number of collisions occurring in a week during the summer months at a particular
intersection is 2.00.
a) What is the probability of no collisions in any particular week?
b) What is the probability that there will be exactly one collision in a week?
c) What is the probability of exactly two collisions in a week?
d) What is the probability of finding not more than two collisions in a week?
e) What is the probability of finding more than two collisions in a week?
Solution : λ = 2.00/week, so λ = 2.00.

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