Probabilitas dan Statistika

Some Discrete Probability Distributions

Dr. I Wayan Mustika, ST., M.Eng.

Adhistya Erna Permanasari, Ph.D

Departemen Teknik Elektro dan Teknologi Informasi 
FT UGM
 Outline
 Discrete Uniform Distribution
 Binomial and Multinomial Distributions
 Hypergeometric Distribution
 Poisson Distribution and the Poisson Process
 Discrete Uniform Distribution
If the random variable X assume the values x1, x2, …, xk,
with equal probabilities, then the discrete uniform
distribution is given by
 Example 1
• When a light bulb is selected at random from a box that
contains a 40-watt bulb, a 60-watt bulb, a 75-watt bulb,
and a 100-watt bulb, each element of the sample space
S = {40, 60, 75, 100} occurs with probability 1/4.
Therefore, we have a uniform distribution, with

• When a fair die is tossed, each element of the sample

space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} occurs with probability 1/6.
Therefore, we have a uniform distribution, with
 The mean and variance of the discrete uniform
distribution f(x;k) are
 The Binomial Distribution
 An experiment often consists of repeated trials, each
with two possible outcomes that may be labeled
success or failure.
 The most obvious application deals with the testing of
items as they come off an assembly line, where each
test or trial may indicate a defective or a nondefective
item.
 We may choose to define either outcome as a success.
The process is referred to as a Bernoulli process. Each
trial is called a Bernoulli trial.
 Model (or characteristics) of a
Binomial Random Variable
1. The experiment consists of n identical trials
2. There are only 2 possible outcomes on each
trial. We will denote one outcome by S (for
Success) and the other by F (for Failure).
3. The probability of S remains the same from trial
to trial. This probability will be denoted by p,
and the probability of F will be denoted by q ( q
= 1-p).
4. The trials are independent.
5. The binomial random variable x is the number
of S in n trials.
 A Bernoulli trial can result in a success with
probability p and a failure with probability q = 1 −
p. Then the probability distribution of the
binomial random variable X, the number of
successes in n independent trials, is

where
p = probability of a success on a single trial, q = 1−p
n = number of trials, x = number of successes in n trials
 Combination without repetition
• Ketika urutan tidak diperhatikan akan tetapi setiap objek yang ada hanya 
bisa dipilih sekali maka jumlah kombinasi yang ada adalah:

• Di mana n adalah jumlah objek yang bisa dipilih dan r adalah jumlah yang 

harus dipilih.
• Sebagai contoh, kamu mempunyai 5 pensil warna dengan warna yang 
berbeda yaitu; merah, kuning, hijau, biru dan ungu. Kamu ingin 
membawanya ke sekolah. Tapi kamu hanya boleh membawa dua pensil 
warna. Ada berapa banyak cara untuk mengkombinasikan pensil warna 
yang ada? Dengan menggunakan rumus di atas maka ada 5!/(5‐2)!(2)! = 10 
kombinasi.
 Example 1
• The probability that a certain kind of component will
survive a given shock test is 3/4. Find the probability that
exactly 2 of the next 4 components tested survive.

Solution
 The binomial distribution derives its name from the fact
that, the n + 1 terms in the binomial expansion of (q+p)n
correspond to the various values of b(x;n,p) for x= 0, 1,
2,..., n. That is,

Since p + q = 1, we see that

Binomial sum
Binomial Table
 Areas of Application
1. Suppose that 80% of the jobs submitted to a data-processing
center are of a statistical nature. Then selecting a random sample
of 10 submitted jobs would be analogous to tossing an unbalanced
coin 10 times, with the probability of observing a head (drawing a
statistical job) on a single trial equal to 0.80.
2. Test for impurities commonly found in drinking water from private
wells showed that 30% of all wells in a particular country have
impurity A. If 20 wells are selected at random then it would be
analogous to tossing an unbalanced coin 20 times, with the
probability of observing a head (selecting a well with impurity A)
on a single trial equal to 0.30.
3. Public opinion or consumer preference polls that elicit one of two
responses – Yes or No, Approve or Disapprove,... are also
analogous to the unbalanced coin tossing experiment if the size N
of the population is large and the size n of the sample is relatively
small.
 Mean and Variance of the Binomial
Distribution
The mean:

The variance:
 Multinomial Distribution
 k possible outcomes E1, E2, … Ek with probabilities p1, p2,
… pk.

 Multinomial distribution will give the probability the E1

occurs x1 times; E2 occurs x2 times; … ; and E2 occurs x2
times in n independent trial

 This can be done in

ways or combination
If a given trial can result in the k outcomes E1, E2, … Ek
with probabilities p1, p2, … pk, then the probability
distribution of the random variables X1, X2, … Xk,
representing the number of occurrences for E1, E2, … Ek
in n independent trial is

with

and
 Example
 The complexity of arrivals and departures into an airport are such
that computer simulation is often used to model the "ideal"
conditions. For a certain airport containing three runways it is known
that in the ideal setting the following are the: probabilities that the
individual runways are accessed by a randomly arriving commercial
jet:
Runway 1: p1 = 2/9,
Runway 2: p2 = 1/6,
Runway 3: p3= 11/18.
What is the probability that 6 randomly arriving airplanes are
distributed in the following fashion?
Runway 1: 2 airplanes,
Runway 2: 1 airplane,
Runway 3: 3 airplanes.
 Solution
 Hypergeometric Distribution
 Hypergeometric experiment possesses the following
two properties:
• A random sample of size n is selected without replacement
from N items.
• k of the N items may be classified as successes and N —
k are classified as failures.
 The number X of successes of a hypergeometric
experiment is called a hypergeometric random
variable.
 Accordingly, the probability distribution of the
hypergeometric variable is called the hypergeometric
distribution
 The probability distribution of the hypergeometric
random variable X, the number of successes in a
random sample of size n selected from N items of which
k are labeled success and N − k labeled failure, is

 The mean and variance of the hypergeometric

distribution
 Example
• Lots of 40 components each are called unacceptable if
they contain as many as 3 defectives or more. The
procedure for sampling the lot is to select 5 components
at random and to reject the lot if a defective is found.
What is the probability that exactly 1 defective is found in
the sample if there are 3 defectives in the entire lot?
Solution:
Using the hypergeometric distribution with n = 5, N = 40,
k = 3, and x = 1, we find the probability of obtaining one
defective to be
Poisson Distribution and the Poisson Process

Properties of poisson process

1. The number of outcomes occurring in one time interval or
specified region is independent of the number that occurs in
any other disjoint time interval or region of space. In this way
we say that the Poisson process has no memory.
2. The probability that a single outcome will occur during a very
short time interval or in a small region is proportional to the
length of the time interval or the size of the region and does
not depend on the number of outcomes occurring outside
this time interval or region.
3. The probability that more than one outcome will occur in
such a short time interval or fall in such a small region is
negligible.
 The probability distribution of the Poisson
random variable X, representing the number of
outcomes occurring in a given time interval or
specified region denoted by t, is

where λ is the average number of outcomes per unit time,

distance, area, or volume, and e = 2.71828
 Table Poisson probability sum
 Example
• During a laboratory experiment the average number of
radioactive particles passing through a counter in 1
millisecond is 4. What is the probability that 6 particles
enter the counter in a given millisecond?
Solution
Using the Poisson distribution with x = 6 and λt = 4, we find
from Table
 Example
• During a laboratory experiment the average number of
radioactive particles passing through a counter in 1
millisecond is 4. What is the probability that 6 particles
enter the counter in a given millisecond?
Solution
Using the Poisson distribution with x = 6 and λt = 4, we find
from Table
How to Use Poisson Table
 Example
• Ten is the average number of oil tankers arriving each
day at a certain port city. The facilities at the port can
handle at most 15 tankers per day. What is the
probability that on a given day tankers have to be turned
away?
Solution
Let X be the number of tankers arriving each day. Then,
using Table, we have
 Example
• Ten is the average number of oil tankers arriving each
day at a certain port city. The facilities at the port can
handle at most 15 tankers per day. What is the
probability that on a given day tankers have to be turned
away?
Solution
Let X be the number of tankers arriving each day. Then,
using Table, we have
 Assignment
Download the following video link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYC5TZfwitE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70apqdHVP4M

1. Follow the instruction by using Minitab (take a

screenshot of your own process)
2. Write the manual calculation into your paper