STAT 328: Probabilities & Statistics

Lecture-5

Dr.Omar Alrumayh o.alrumayh@qu.edu.sa

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 BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY &
STATISTICS, BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS
(TOPIC-1)

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 Recap!
• Last Lectures we discussed:
• Sample space
• Events
• Counting techniques
• Today, we are going to discuss the following:
• Review on Sample Space, Multiplication, Permutation, and Combination.
• Probability of an event
• Conditional Probability
• Independence, and the product rule
• Bayes’ Rule

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Probability

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Probability

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Probability

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Probability

The number of cards in 52

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Probability

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 Probability

SOLUTION:

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 Probability-Additive Rule
• Often it is easiest to calculate the probability of some event from
known probabilities of other events.
• Event in question can be represented as the union of two other
events or as the complement of some event.

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Probability-Additive Rule

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Probability-Additive Rule

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Probability-Additive Rule

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Probability-Additive Rule: Example

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Probability-Additive Rule: Example

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Probability-Additive Rule: Example

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 Probability-Additive Rule

• Theorem 2.7 and its three corollaries should help the reader gain more insight into probability
and its interpretation.
• Corollaries 2.1 and 2.2 are dealing with the probability of occurrence of at least one of a number
of events, no two of which can occur simultaneously.
• The probability that at least one occurs is the sum of the probabilities of occurrence of the
individual events.
• The third corollary simply states that the highest value of a probability (unity) is assigned to the
entire sample space S.

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Probability-Additive Rule: Example

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Probability-Additive Rule: Example

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 Conditional Probability
• The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that some event A has occurred is called
a conditional probability and is denoted by P(B|A).

P(B|A): the probability of B, given A

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 Conditional Probability
• As an additional illustration, suppose that our sample space S is the population of adults in a small town who have completed
the requirements for a college degree.
• We shall categorize them according to gender and employment status. The data are given in Table 2.1.
• Example:

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Conditional Probability

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 Conditional Probability
• Example : One is given the information that the flight did not depart on time. Armed with this additional information, one can
calculate the more pertinent probability P(A|D!), that is, the probability that it arrives on time, given that it did not depart on
time.
• Answer:

• As a result, the probability of an on-time arrival is diminished severely in the presence of the additional information.

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Conditional Probability

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 Independent Events
• Example : consider an experiment in which 2 cards are drawn in succession from an ordinary deck, with replacement. The
events are defined as:
• A: the first card is an ace,
• B: the second card is a spade.
• Answer:

• In other words, the occurrence of B had no impact on the odds of occurrence of A. Here the occurrence of A is independent of
the occurrence of B.

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 The Product Rule, or the Multiplicative Rule

• The probability that two events will both occur.

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The Product Rule, or the Multiplicative Rule

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The Product Rule, or the Multiplicative Rule

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