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EXERCISE 2
1 The products analyzed are some of the major forest products in the Philippines
• Log- a portion or length of a trunk
• Lumber- product sawn from a log
• Plywood- Assembled product made usually of an odd number of layers of veneers glued together by means of adhesive
Market Channel and
Price Analysis
LOG
LUMBER
Buying and Selling PLYWOOD
Prices
Demand
Analysis
Alfredo’s Wood Craft gets raw materials specifically in their neighboring municipality
and province which is San Pablo and Quezon Province respectively. This is efficient since the
cost of travel is not that much higher since the place is near to them. They get the raw materials
in the form of log and the price of it varies according to wood species, sizes and its availability.
After this, they are the one who manufacture it into a usable products. The only added value that
is considered are the machineries being use and the materials for polishing such as paints etc. but
other than that is nothing more since they do not focus on a more conflict decorative designs.
The price of their products also varies depending on different factors especially when the
customers put an added instruction to the product they want.
Basically, their customers are usually the households since the furniture for home is their
basic products. Aside from that, there have also dealer from Sucat, Manila who transact with
them as the supplier of these wood-made products and according to them, they export it to
different countries.
On the average, they gathered an approximate amount of 100,000 pesos per week
depending on how many the orders are.
Large Scope: Philippines
To be able to analyze the market channels of the selected forest products in the
Philippines, it is first important to know the structure of this channel that is existing in the
present context. This is summarized as:
Table 2. Structure of the Marketing Channel of Forest Products in the Philippines
1) Producers CBFMA (Community-Based Forest Management Agreement)
TLA (Timber Licensed Agreement)
IFMA (Industrial Forest Management Agreement)
SIFMA (Socialized Industrial Forest Management Agreement)
PLTP/SPLTP (Private Land Tree Plantation/ Special Private Land
Tree Plantation)
PFDA (Plantation Forest Development Agreement)
Tree Farmers
2) Primary and Sawmill, Plywood Plant, Venner Plant, Blockboard Plant, Fiberboard
Secondary Processors Plant and Papermill
*using local or imported materials
3) Tertiary Processors Furniture Makers, Sash, Factories, Wood working shops
4) Consumers Retailers, Construction firms, Lumber dealers and Households
Source: FMB-DENR and International Tropical Timber Association (ITTO)
It can be infer to this that these components are interdependent with each other. The lack
of one component will further affects the other succeeding component in the transaction or the
failure of one might provide negative implications to the others. For example, the amount of the
raw materials to be produced by the leading producers affect also the behavior of the processors,
it might be in terms of the number of finished products to be done and its prices. In relation to
this, a healthy and smooth functioning or performance of each components in the transaction is
beneficial and important to all of them.
According to the study2 conducted by FMB-DENR in partnership with the International
Tropical Timber Association (ITTO), tree farmers are the top suppliers of raw materials for the
processors and dealers. Also, note that sometimes the processors, dealers and construction firms
are all obtaining their raw materials to one supplier only. This situation really happens especially
when the sources are open and the supply chain is not strict. The only processors who get their
raw materials to the other producers includes sawmill, veneer/plywood plantation and some
lumber dealers. In terms of the buying and selling aspect in the processors, the most agents who
buy to them are households, walk-in’s, and lumber dealers as well.
2
total of 143 respondents comprising different groups (producers, processors, consumers)
Suppliers
2%
4%
5%
5%
6% 40%
15%
24%
Tree Farmers Lumber Dealers Agent CBFMA IFMA/TLA Sawmill Importer Others
Buyers
3% 12%
4%
34%
5%
8%
14%
20%
Sawmill Plywood/Veneer Plant Lumber dealers Furniture Makers Agent Mini sawmill Contruction Others
LOG
120000
100000
PRODUCTION PRICE
80000
PRODUCTION PROJECTED
60000 EXPORT PRICE
Figure 4. Comparison of log’s production, export and import prices to its projected prices
In terms of log production, the values of the price and the price projected are very close
with each other except in the year 2013 where the values differ by 25.76%. Noticeable in the
export aspects the big difference between the two. In the year 2000 up to 2003, the value
computed to the projected price is negative while in the later year, it exceeded the real price.
Same with the production, the import values of the two are close with one another. However, to
sum this up, the r-squared values for these three aspects namely: production, export and import
show that these are not reliable for interpretation as it show low precision. The r-squared values
are as follow: 0.00066, 0.28541 and 0.299105 respectively.
B. LUMBER
LUMBER
30000
25000 PRODUCTION PRICE
Figure 5. Comparison of lumber’s production, export and import prices to its projected prices
It can be seen that both of the price and the projected one in the import are positively
increasing. This means that there is a high amount that we spent in getting lumber in the other
countries. In comparison with the export values, the country gets a lesser amount in selling our
lumber products in the other country and this is just one manifestations of the export ban in the
Philippines. In terms of the production, there are both low values for the supply of lumber.
The r-squared computed in the production aspect is 0.944572 meaning that the projected
prices are very close to the real prices. It can be a good and reliable considerations in assessing
the future prices of the product. However, the two factor have a weaker reliability.
C. PLYWOOD
PLYWOOD
50000
45000
40000
35000 PRODUCTION PRICE
Figure 6. Comparison of plywood’s production, export and import prices to its projected prices
The production prices as well as its projected prices have close values and it is sufficient
to say that this is reliable because it has an r-squared value of 0.8333 when inputted with an x-
variable of time or year. The export prices changes through time while its projected prices show
a positively increasing line. Lastly, the import price is also varies through time while its
projected price is almost stagnant in the last 15 years.
PROJECTED PRICES
The projected prices of the forest products in the next five years are summarized below in
a table.
Table 3. Projected prices of log, lumber and plywood (2015-2019)
Pulhin, J.M. (2002). Trends in Forest Policy in the Philippines. Retrieved from
aboutphilippines.ph/files/Trends-in-Forest-Policy-Philippines.pdf
Timber and Timber Products Trade Flow Study of the Philippines ITTO PD 133/02 Rev.3 (M).
Retrieved from www.itto.int/files/user/pdf/publications/.../pd138-02%20rev3(M)%20e.pdf
https://www.boundless.com/marketing/textbooks/boundless-marketing-textbook/marketing-
channels-11/marketing-channels-in-the-supply-chain-76/the-significance-of-marketing-channels-
386-7303/
www.fao.org
Appendix
YEAR PRODUCTION EXPORT IMPORT
PRICE PROJECTED PRICE PROJECTED PRICE PROJECTED
-
3435.135 3277.538914 1359.809 4106.857 5622.678543
2000 11432.58685
-
3579.629 3275.106294 1580.774 4135.009 6025.869629
2001 7686.174094
2002 3397.692 3272.673673 2218.955 -3939.76134 4827.098 6429.060716
-
3058.189 3270.241052 2710.165 5043.912 6832.251802
2003 193.3485857
2004 3226.503 3267.808431 1681.197 3553.064169 5656.635 7235.442889
2005 3248.086 3265.37581 4131.413 7299.476923 7970.27 7638.633975
2006 3138.729 3262.943189 3420.953 11045.88968 15541.16 8041.825062
2007 2914.182 3260.510568 3461.13 14792.30243 11865.63 8445.016148
2008 2934.887 3258.077947 2843.458 18538.71519 10633.56 8848.207234
2009 2925.268 3255.645326 2858.232 22285.12794 9479.484 9251.398321
2010 3354.564 3253.212705 1777.322 26031.54069 11832.05 9654.589407
2011 3256.652 3250.780085 2093.467 29777.95345 9302.149 10057.78049
2012 3596.299 3248.347464 76434.13 33524.3662 9630.634 10460.97158
2013 4371.904 3245.914843 104969.5 37270.77896 7791.694 10864.16267
2014 2469.938 3243.482222 10344.08 41017.19171 8859.099 11267.35375
LUMBER
Qty Price Income Qhat
150,000 1695.536054 3580714 211,268.67
197,000 2089.889823 3684340 231,846.89
163,000 1923.616677 3818667 232,535.32
246,000 1896.945296 4008469 241,497.02
339,000 2057.390731 4276941 261,774.77
288,000 2090.008753 4481279 273,775.41
432,000 2227.223343 4716231 291,398.70
362,000 2540.163749 5028288 319,818.79
358,000 2527.092835 5237101 330,302.27
304,000 2542.184322 5297240 334,044.85
377,000 2718.936118 5701539 362,093.44
370,000 2853.411125 5910201 378,228.63
218,000 2841.535645 6305229 398,554.04
450,000 2934.310401 6750079 425,514.63
496,000 3196.473848 7164017 457,346.56
PLYWOOD
Qty Price Income Qhat
286,000 13673.33467 3580714 345,345.45
292,000 13569.16304 3684340 339,515.95
350,000 13983.0152 3818667 336,727.63
351,000 13681.39432 4008469 325,087.57
386,000 13883.07294 4276941 314,081.18
314,000 14583.74568 4481279 310,457.43
317,000 14188.7845 4716231 295,860.88
281,000 14072.12343 5028288 280,017.76
235,000 14888.29636 5237101 277,184.72
253,000 15424.82087 5297240 278,987.66
276,000 14817.1919 5701539 254,495.87
298,000 16532.03132 5910201 259,476.87
297,000 17445.85646 6305229 248,642.79
199,000 17122.56763 6750079 224,694.03
164,000 17514.11673 7164017 208,424.21