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The Economic Costs of Conflict
The Economic Costs of Conflict
This article investigates the economic effects of con ict, using the terrorist con ict
in the Basque Country as a case study. We nd that, after the outbreak of terrorism
in the late 1960’s, per capita GDP in the Basque Country declined about 10
percentage points relative to a synthetic control region without terrorism. In
addition, we use the 1998–1999 truce as a natural experiment. We nd that stocks
of rms with a signi cant part of their business in the Basque Country showed a
positive relative performance when truce became credible, and a negative relative
performance at the end of the cease- re. (JEL D74, G14, P16)
Political instability is believed to have strong of terrorist and political con ict, the Basque
adverse effects on economic prosperity. How- Country had dropped to the sixth position in per
ever, to date, the evidence on this matter is capita GDP. 1 During that period, terrorist activ-
scarce, probably because it is dif cult to know ity by the Basque terrorist organization ETA
how economies would have evolved in absence resulted in almost 800 deaths. Basque entrepre-
of political con icts. neurs and corporations had been speci c targets
This article investigates the economic impact of violence and extortion (including assassina-
of con ict, using the terrorist con ict in the tions, robberies, and kidnappings-for-ransom).
Basque Country as a case study. The Basque Not surprisingly, the economic downturn suf-
con ict is especially interesting from an eco- fered by the Basque economy during those
nomic perspective. At the outset of terrorist years has been attributed, at least partially, to
activity in the early 1970’s, the Basque Country the effect of terrorism. However, little research
was one of the richest regions in Spain, occu- has been carried out to assess the economic
pying the third position in per capita GDP (out effects of the con ict.2
of 17 regions). In the late 1990’s, after 30 years This type of study is dif cult. On the one
hand, a pure time-series analysis of the severity
of terrorism and the evolution of the Basque
* Abadie: John F. Kennedy School of Government, Har- economy will be contaminated by the economic
vard University, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, downturn which Spain suffered during the sec-
MA 02138 (e-mail: alberto_abadie@harvard.edu); Gardea- ond half of the 1970’s and the rst half of the
zabal: Departamento Fundamentos del Análisis Económico
II, Universidad del Pa‡´s Vasco, Avenida Lehendakari
1980’s, at the peak of terrorist activity. On the
Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain (e-mail: jepgamaj@ other hand, at the outset of terrorism, the
bs.ehu.es). We thank Josh Angrist, Esther Du o, Jim Basque Country differed from other Spanish
Heckman, Miguel Hernán, Miguel Angel Mart‡´nez, Adolfo regions in characteristics that are thought to be
de Motta, Dani Rodrik, Gonzalo Rubio, Emmanuel Saez, related to potential for economic growth. There-
Todd Sandler, Jim Stock, Jaume Ventura, Luis Viceira,
Richard Zeckhauser, and seminar participants at CEMFI, fore, a simple comparison of the evolution of
Chicago, Harvard/MIT, the University of California-Santa the Basque economy and the economy of the
Cruz, and the 2001 Summer School on Polarization and rest of Spain would not only re ect the effect of
Con ict in San Sebastian for helpful comments and discus- terrorism but also the effect of pre-terrorism
sions. Thanks also go to an anonymous referee for helpful
and constructive suggestions. David López-Salido, Mikel
differences in economic growth determinants.
Tapia, and Fernando Tusell helped us obtain the nancial
data. Henry Aray, Francisco Blanch, Sara Piccicuto, and
1
Elena Zoido provided expert research assistance and con- See Fundación BBV (1999).
2
tributed comments. Gardeazabal thanks the Department of Notable exceptions are Walter Enders and Todd
Economics at the University of California-Santa Cruz for its Sandler (1991, 1996), who study the effects of terrorism on
hospitality while part of this work was carried out. tourism and foreign direct investment in Spain.
113
114 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW MARCH 2003
Our analysis rests on two different strategies. variables techniques can be used to correct for
First, we use a combination of other Spanish reverse causation. However, the validity of in-
regions to construct a “synthetic” control region struments in cross-country regressions has often
which resembles relevant economic character- been questioned (see, e.g., N. Gregory Mankiw,
istics of the Basque Country before the outset of 1995). Another potential shortcoming of studies
Basque political terrorism in the late 1960’s. based on country-level data is that political con-
The subsequent economic evolution of this icts in different countries may be radically
“counterfactual” Basque Country without ter- different in nature. Such heterogeneity may cre-
rorism is compared to the actual experience of ate problems when comparing the experiences
the Basque Country. We nd that, after the of different countries and interpreting the results
outbreak of terrorism, per capita GDP in the (Jonathan Temple, 1999, discusses heterogene-
Basque Country declined about 10 percentage ity issues in cross-country regressions).
points relative to the synthetic control region. Case studies, like the one presented in this
Moreover, this gap seemed to widen in response article, look like the natural avenue to validate
to spikes in terrorist activity. The second part of or refute the results given by cross-country stud-
this study uses the unilateral truce declared by ies. Heterogeneity issues are circumvented here
ETA in September 1998 as a natural experiment by focusing on a particular con ict: the terrorist
to estimate the effects of the con ict. If the con ict in the Basque Country. In addition, as
terrorist con ict was perceived to have a nega- explained below, the Basque con ict has no
tive impact on the Basque economy, stocks of direct economic motivation and, in contrast to
rms with a signi cant part of their business in most other violent con icts, it does not take
the Basque Country should have shown a pos- place in a region under particularly harsh eco-
itive relative performance as the truce became nomic conditions. Consequently, temporal vari-
credible, and a negative relative performance at ation in economic prosperity in the Basque
the end of the cease- re. We nd evidence that Country during the period considered in this
is consistent with this conjecture using event study is unlikely to have had a substantial effect
study methods. on the intensity of terrorist activity, mitigating
Most of the empirical literature on the effects endogeneity issues.
of political con ict on economic variables have
used cross sections of country-level data. Using I. A Brief History of ETA’s Terrorist Activity
a cross section of countries, Yiannis P. Venieris
and Dipak K. Gupta (1986) and Alberto Alesina ETA was founded in 1959 to promote the
and Roberto Perotti (1996) concluded that po- establishment of an independent Basque state. 5
litical instability has a negative effect on invest- However, it was not until 1968 that ETA
ment and savings. Also using a cross section of claimed its rst victim. In fact, ETA did not
countries, Robert J. Barro (1991), Paolo Mauro implement large-scale terrorist activity until the
(1995), and Alesina et al. (1996) have argued
that political instability has a negative effect on
economic growth.3 A potential caveat of this however, that rapid economic growth produces social disloca-
literature is that part of the observed association tion and may cause political unrest. While cross-country stud-
between political con ict and economic vari- ies have shown a positive association between poverty and
political con ict (see, e.g., Paul Collier and Anke Hoef er,
ables across countries is thought to be created 2002), Alan B. Krueger and Jitka Maleckova (2002) provide
by reverse causation, since political instability evidence that, within country, disparities in individual socio-
is not only a cause but also an effect of uc- economic characteristics seem to be unrelated to participation
tuations in economic variables.4 Instrumental in politically motivated violence.
5
Basques are spread over the Basque Autonomous Re -
gion and Navarra in Spain, and part of the French Atlantic
Pyrenees Department. The Basque Autonomous Region in
3
See also Douglas A. Hibbs (1973), Gupta (1990), John Spain has been, however, the main scenario of the con ict;
B. Londregan and Keith T. Poole (1990), Jess Benhabib and for the rest of the article, we use the term “the Basque
Aldo Rustichini (1996), and Daron Acemoglu and James A. Country” to refer to this region. The Basque Autonomous
Robinson (2001) on the relationship between political in- region is a small region with an area of 7,234 square
stability and economic variables. kilometers (around 1.5 percent of the total area of Spain)
4
Conventionally, it has been argued that economic growth and 2.1 million inhabitants in 2000 (around 5.2 percent of
promotes political stability. Mancur Olson (1963) has argued, the total population of Spain).
VOL. 93 NO. 1 ABADIE AND GARDEAZABAL: THE ECONOMIC COSTS OF CONFLICT 115
TABLE 1—CHRONOLOGY OF ETA’S TERRORIST ACTIVITY TABLE 2—ETA’S TERRORIST ACTIVITY, 1968–1997
“Synthetic”
Basque Country Spain Basque Country
(1) (2) (3)
Real per capita GDP a 5,285.46 3,633.25 5,270.80
Investment ratio (percentage)b 24.65 21.79 21.58
Population densityc 246.89 66.34 196.28
Sectoral shares (percentage) d
Agriculture, forestry, and shing 6.84 16.34 6.18
Energy and water 4.11 4.32 2.76
Industry 45.08 26.60 37.64
Construction and engineering 6.15 7.25 6.96
Marketable services 33.75 38.53 41.10
Nonmarketable services 4.07 6.97 5.37
Human capital (percentage) e
Illiterates 3.32 11.66 7.65
Primary or without studies 85.97 80.15 82.33
High school 7.46 5.49 6.92
More than high school 3.26 2.70 3.10
Sources: Authors’ computations from Matilde Mas et al. (1998) and Fundación BBV (1999).
a
1986 USD, average for 1960–1969.
b
Gross Total Investment/GDP, average for 1964–1969.
c
Persons per square kilometer, 1969.
d
Percentages over total production, 1961–1969.
e
Percentages over working-age population, 1964–1969.
striking once the gures are expressed in per better educated labor force. As a result, a simple
capita terms to re ect relative exposure to ter- comparison of the economic performance of the
rorism. During the period 1968–1997, ETA’s Basque Country and the rest of Spain during the
activity in the Basque Country, measured as the terrorism years may not only re ect the impact of
number of deaths per inhabitant per year, was terrorism, but also other pre-terrorism differences
37 times as large as in the rest of Spain.7 which affected subsequent economic growth.
We approach this problem by comparing the
II. Using Other Spanish Regions to Construct a economic evolution of the Basque Country dur-
“Synthetic” Basque Country Without Terrorism ing the terrorist era with that of a weighted
combination of other Spanish regions chosen
A. Analytical Methods and Main Results to resemble the characteristics of the Basque
Country before terrorism. We conceptualize
The goal of this section is to assess the impact such a weighted average of other Spanish re-
that terrorism has had on economic growth for the gions as a “synthetic” Basque Country without
Basque Country. Table 3, in columns (1) and (2), terrorism, against which we can compare the
reports values of some variables typically associ- actual Basque Country with terrorism. Let J be
ated with growth potential8 for the Basque Coun- the number of available control regions (the 16
try and Spain for the immediate pre-terrorism Spanish regions other than the Basque Coun-
years. During the 1960’s, relative to the whole try), and W 5 (w 1, ... , w J)9 a ( J 3 1) vector
country, the Basque Country had higher per capita of nonnegative weights which sum to one. The
income, higher investment ratio (investment/pro- scalar w j ( j 5 1, ... , J) represents the weight
duction), was more densely populated, had a of region j in the synthetic Basque Country.
higher percentage of industrial production, and a Each different value for W produces a different
synthetic Basque Country, and therefore the
choice of a valid subset of control regions is
7 embedded in the choice of the weights W.
See also Mark Kurlansky (1999) and CNN (2001) for
additional background information on the Basque con ict. As said above, the weights are chosen so that
8
See, e.g., Barro and Xavier Sala-i-Martin (1995). the synthetic Basque country most closely re-
VOL. 93 NO. 1 ABADIE AND GARDEAZABAL: THE ECONOMIC COSTS OF CONFLICT 117
sembles the actual one before terrorism. Let X1 3 reports growth predictors for the synthetic
be a (K 3 1) vector of pre-terrorism values of Basque Country before terrorism: X*1 5 X0W*.
K economic growth predictors for the Basque These gures give an indication of how well
Country [i.e., those values in Table 3, column the weighted combination of control regions
(1)]. Let X0 be a (K 3 J) matrix which contains reproduces the values of growth predictors for
the values of the same variables for the J pos- Basque Country before terrorism. As expected,
sible control regions. Let V be a diagonal matrix the synthetic Basque Country looks comparable
with nonnegative components. The values of to the actual one, although some growth deter-
the diagonal elements of V re ect the relative minants cannot be perfectly tted. In particular,
importance of the different growth predictors. during the 1960’s, the Basque Country was the
The vector of weights W* is chosen to mini- Spanish region with the highest industrial share
mize (X1 2 X0W)9V(X1 2 X0W) subject to as a percentage of total production. Therefore, a
wj $ 0 (j 5 1, 2, ... , J) and w1 1 ... 1 wJ 5 1. convex combination of other Spanish regions
The vector W* de nes the combination of non- cannot perfectly reproduce the Basque sectoral
terrorism control regions which best resembled shares before terrorism.
the Basque Country in economic growth determi- Let Y1 be a (T 3 1) vector whose elements
nants at the outset of terrorism.9 are the values of real per capita GDP for the
Since W* depends on V there is something to Basque Country during T time periods. Let Y0
be said about the choice of V. Arguably, the be a (T 3 J) matrix which contains the values
choice of V could be subjective, re ecting our of the same variables for the control regions.
previous knowledge about the relative impor- Our goal is to approximate the per capita GDP
tance of each particular growth predictor. Here, path that the Basque Country would have expe-
we adopt a more eclectic method, choosing V rienced in the absence of terrorism. This coun-
such that the real per capita GDP path for the terfactual per capita GDP path is calculated as
Basque Country during the 1960’s is best repro- the per capita GDP of the synthetic Basque
duced by the resulting synthetic Basque Coun- Country, Y*1 5 Y0W*.
try (see Appendix B for details). Figure 1 plots Y1 and Y*1 for the period
The optimal weights, W*, are positive for 1955–1997. The Basque Country and the syn-
two regions, Catalonia and Madrid, with values thetic control behave similarly until 1975. From
0.8508 and 0.1492 respectively, and take value 1975, when ETA’s terrorist activity becomes a
zero for the other potential controls. The selec- large-scale phenomenon, Y1 and Y*1 diverge;
tion of Catalonia and Madrid by our procedure the Basque Country per capita GDP takes val-
as controls for the Basque Country is not unex- ues up to around 12 percent below those of the
pected, since a visual inspection of the data synthetic control. The gap in per capita GDP
reveals that the values of the pre-terrorism char- seems to decrease at the end of the period,
acteristics for these two regions are comparable taking values around 8 or 9 percent in 1995–
to the values of the pre-terrorism characteristics 1997. Overall, Figure 1 suggests a 10-percent
for the Basque Country.10 Column (3) of Table loss in per capita GDP due to terrorism for the
1980’s and 1990’s.
9
Statistical inference on the effect of terrorism
This approach is closely related to statistical matching on the economy can now be carried out by
methods for observational studies (see, e.g., Paul R. Rosen-
baum, 1995). The reason to restrict the weights in W to be
looking at the relationship between the per cap-
nonnegative and sum to one is to prevent extrapolation outside ita GDP gap (synthetic vs. actual Basque Coun-
the support of the growth predictors for the control regions. try) and the intensity of terrorism in the Basque
Without this restriction (and if all the diagonal elements of V Country during the sample period. Since pro-
are positive), X1 would be perfectly tted as long as the rank duction factors are xed in the short run, we
of X0 is equal to K, irrespectively of how distant is X1 from the
elements of X0. When the weights in W are restricted to be
nonnegative and sum to one, X1 cannot be perfectly tted in
general even if the rank of X0 is equal to K. In this case, X1 will In addition, Catalonia and the Basque Country were the two
be perfectly tted only if it lies in the “support” (convex hull) Spanish regions with highest shares of industrial produc-
of the growth predictors for the control regions. tion. As a robustness exercise, we checked that small per-
10
Like the Basque Country, relative to the rest of Spain turbations to V do not alter the results substantively, even
during the 1960’s, Catalonia and Madrid had higher levels when they occasionally produce small positive weights for
of per capita income, population density, and human capital. regions other than Catalonia and Madrid.
118 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW MARCH 2003
expect terrorism to have a lagged negative ef- of deaths caused by terrorist actions (used as a
fect on per capita GDP. In Figure 2, we plotted proxy for overall terrorist activity). As ex-
the per capita GDP gap, Y1 2 Y*1, as a percent- pected, spikes in terrorist activity seem to be
age of Basque per capita GDP, and the number followed by increases in the amplitude of the
VOL. 93 NO. 1 ABADIE AND GARDEAZABAL: THE ECONOMIC COSTS OF CONFLICT 119
Catalonia is the main contributor to the syn- economic effect of terrorism on the Basque
thetic control for the Basque Country, an ab- Country. To the extent that the regions which
normally high level of per capita GDP for form the synthetic control might have been eco-
Catalonia during the 1990’s may arti cially nomically hurt by the con ict, our estimated
widen the GDP gap for the Basque Country in GDP gap would provide a lower bound on the
Figure 1. Therefore, our placebo study suggests economic effect of terrorism on the Basque
that, while per capita GDP for Catalonia can be Country economy. On the other hand, the con-
reasonably well reproduced by our techniques, ict may have diverted investment from the
the catch-up in per capita GDP for the Basque Basque Country to other Spanish regions, arti-
Country during the 1990’s (relative to the syn- cially increasing the magnitude of the gap.
thetic control region) may have been more pro- However, since the size of the synthetic Basque
nounced than what Figure 1 indicates. Country is much larger than the actual Basque
Country, this type of bias is arguably small.12 In
C. Discussion the next section we show evidence that support
the view that the effect of the con ict was small
As noted earlier, the Basque Country has outside the Basque Country.
been the main scenario of the terrorist con ict. A more important criticism of the analysis in
However, ETA has also operated in other Span- this section is that, as long as the synthetic
ish regions. Even though there is no indication control cannot reproduce exactly the character-
that entrepreneurs have abandoned Spain as a istics of the Basque Country before terrorism,
result of the terrorist threat, Basque terrorism the GDP gap may have been created by differ-
might have imposed a negative reputational ex-
ternality on other Spanish regions, and foreign
investment might have chosen alternative des- 12
For the 1964–1975 period, GDP for the synthetic
tinations with no terrorist con icts. If it is in fact region was 2.5 times larger than GDP for the Basque Coun-
try; this gure increased to more than 3 during the terrorism
the case that the Basque terrorist con ict has era. Furthermore, investment diverted to regions other than
had a negative economic effect on other Spanish those in the synthetic Basque Country does not affect the
regions, this effect is arguably weaker than the validity of our analysis.
VOL. 93 NO. 1 ABADIE AND GARDEAZABAL: THE ECONOMIC COSTS OF CONFLICT 121
prospects became more realistic as time passed A challenge with this exercise is that there is no
without terrorist actions and the Spanish gov- obvious way to classify stocks into the Basque/
ernment con rmed contacts with ETA. Three non-Basque categories. A classi cation that relies
months before the end of the truce the situation solely on companies’ registered addresses seems
deteriorated as the Spanish government an- problematic. Registered addresses are sometimes
nounced that the process was paralyzed. chosen for historic, convenience, or tax-related
If nancial markets are ef cient, asset prices reasons and do not necessarily imply that the
should re ect all available information and, company has an important presence in the area.
thus, react only to new information. Therefore, Unfortunately, data on geographical location of
if the terrorist con ict was perceived to have a rms’ activities are rarely available. To solve this
negative impact on the Basque economy, problem we adopted a simple and direct approach.
Basque stocks (stocks of rms with a signi cant Since what is relevant for our event study is which
part of their business in the Basque Country) companies were perceived by the markets as car-
should have shown a positive performance rel- rying a signi cant part of their business in the
ative to non-Basque stocks (stocks of rms Basque Country, we asked a group of market
without a signi cant part of their business in the analysts at a certain Basque nancial institution to
Basque Country) as the truce became credible. produce this classi cation for us. We used this
Similarly, Basque stocks should have per- information to divide stocks into Basque stocks
formed poorly, relative to non-Basque stocks, and non-Basque stocks. Again, the idea is to label
at the end of the truce. In this section, we use rms which have a large part of their business in
the method of event study to explore these the Basque Country as Basque stocks, even if they
questions. are not located in the Basque Country. All other
rms with little exposure in the Basque Country
were labeled as non-Basque stocks. 15
We collected series of daily stock returns
political negotiation (event 1 in Table 4). This declaration
and the subsequent announcement of the truce were inter-
preted by many nonsubscribing parties as maneuvers of
15
Basque nationalist parties to create a united front to pursue The list of Basque and non-Basque stocks used for the
independence. analysis is provided in Appendix B, Table B2.
VOL. 93 NO. 1 ABADIE AND GARDEAZABAL: THE ECONOMIC COSTS OF CONFLICT 123
Non-
Basque Basque All
Number of observations 14 59 73
Registered in the
Basque Country Fraction 0.57 0.00 0.11
Size 1998 Mean 412.28 1,999.37 1,695.00
S.D. 362.84 4,501.26 4,091.61
Min 117.66 17.01 17.01
Max 1,531.68 26,778.68 26,778.68
1999 Mean 478.70 2,948.63 2,474.94
S.D. 348.46 7,105.34 6,453.67
Min 104.56 15.88 15.88
Max 1,244.64 45,347.23 45,347.23
2000 Mean 371.43 3,346.84 2,776.21
S.D. 406.43 11,305.43 10,216.72
Min 56.20 9.12 9.12
Max 1,656.38 81,292.33 81,292.33
Book-to-market 1998 Mean 0.68 0.55 0.58
S.D. 0.43 0.34 0.36
Min 0.20 0.09 0.09
Max 1.65 1.80 1.80
1999 Mean 0.72 0.50 0.54
S.D. 0.55 0.29 0.36
Min 0.14 0.07 0.07
Max 2.28 1.38 2.28
2000 Mean 0.86 0.68 0.71
S.D. 0.46 0.43 0.44
Min 0.30 0.08 0.08
Max 1.70 2.26 2.26
Source: Authors’ computations from Madrid Stock Exchange online data (http://www.bolsa-
madrid.es). Size values in millions of United States dollars. Size and book-to-market gures
are for the beginning of the indicated year (last trading day of the previous year). S.D. means
standard deviation.
for 1998, 1999, and 2000 and constructed two smaller and have a higher book-to-market
buy-and-hold portfolios: one composed of 14 ratio.17
Basque stocks and the other composed of 59 In contrast with more conventional event
non-Basque stocks (see Appendix B for details study settings, where most of the information is
on selection of stocks for our sample and con- revealed during short event windows, the infor-
struction of portfolios). Buy-and-hold portfolios mational content of the truce evolved gradually
represent the portfolio of a passive investor during a 14-month period. Therefore, to study
who constructed a value-weighted Basque or the effect of the truce it is important to con-
non-Basque portfolio at the beginning of our trol for long-run risk factors in stock returns.
sample period.16 Fama and French (1993) have identi ed three
Table 5 contains descriptive statistics for our common risk factors in stock returns, which
sample. Fifty-seven percent of the rms that compose the often-called Fama-French Three-
compose our Basque portfolio have registered Factor Model:
addresses in the Basque Country, while none of
the non-Basque rms are registered in the
Basque Country. On average, Basque rms are
17
Size is the market value of all outstanding shares of a
common stock. The book-to-market ratio is the ratio of the
book value of a stock to its market value. Size and the
16
The strategy of constructing portfolios of rms ex- book-to-market ratio have been shown to explain cross-
posed and not exposed to certain risks is often used in event sectional variation in average stock returns (see, e.g., Eu-
studies. See, for instance, Bong Chan Kho et al. (2000). gene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French, 1992).
124 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW MARCH 2003
Notes: Heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors are in parentheses. The sample period consists of 747 trading sessions for
1998–2000.
s51
D
$1 1 AR js % 2 1.
squares (OLS) to the Basque and non-Basque Figure 6 graphs cumulative abnormal returns
portfolios. The coef cients on R m t , SMB t, and for the Basque and non-Basque portfolios from
the announcement of the truce to the end of
1999 (the dashed vertical line around the end of
18
See the in uential article by Fama and French (1993)
and Appendix B for more information about the de ni-
19
tion and construction of these variables. Fama and French As in Fama and French (1993), we expect that returns
(1993) and John D. Lyon et al. (1999) discuss the use of portfolios constructed from stocks with small market
of the Fama-French Three-Factor Model to calculate long- valuations and high book-to-market ratios (as the Basque
run abnormal returns in event studies. In particular, Fama portfolio) respond positively to SMB t and HML t, whereas
and French (1993) have argued that SMB t and HML t ab- returns of portfolios constructed from stocks with big mar-
sorb the size and book-to-market effects in average stock ket valuations and low book-to-market ratios (as the non-
returns. Basque portfolio) respond negatively to SMB t and HML t.
VOL. 93 NO. 1 ABADIE AND GARDEAZABAL: THE ECONOMIC COSTS OF CONFLICT 125
November of 1999 represents the end of the Minister (event number 11), and ending with
truce). The Basque portfolio outperforms the the announcement of the end of the truce by
non-Basque portfolio for most of the truce pe- ETA (event number 14). Columns (3) and (4)
riod except at the beginning (when the cease- of Table 6 report the regressions including
re had not gained credibility) and at the end the dummy variables Good News t and Bad
(when the cease- re lost credibility). News t. The estimated coef cients on the
To perform a statistical test on the effect of dummy variables represent average daily abnor-
the truce we added two dummy variables to mal returns during the Good News and Bad
equation (1). Good News t takes a value of one News periods for the Basque and non-Basque
for the period between the trading sessions after portfolios. As expected, for the Basque port-
event 5 and event 7 in Table 4, and a value of folio, the coef cient of Good News t is posi-
zero otherwise. Bad News t takes a value of one tive and signi cant while the coef cient of
for the period between the trading sessions after Bad News t is negative and also signi cant. For
event 11 and event 14 in Table 4, and a value of the non-Basque portfolio, the effects are small
zero otherwise. The Good News period com- in magnitude and not statistically different
prises 22 trading sessions and the Bad News from zero, which supports the view that Basque
period 66. During the Good News period, the terrorism has a minor impact on the economy
credibility of the truce gained ground, starting outside the Basque Country. The last column
with the offer of a revision in the policy towards of Table 6 shows the result for the difference
ETA activists in jail, if peace consolidated, by regression. The dependent variable for the
the Spanish Prime Minister (event number 5), difference regression is the difference in ex-
and culminating with the announcement of the cess return between the Basque and the non-
authorization of direct contacts with ETA by the Basque portfolios. The difference regression
Spanish government (event number 7). In con- can be interpreted as the one that corresponds
trast, the Bad News period was characterized to the portfolio of a passive investor who takes
by the collapse of the peace process, starting a long position in Basque stocks and a short
with the acknowledgment that contacts had position in non-Basque stocks. This regression
been interrupted, made by the Spanish Prime re ects a positive abnormal performance of
126 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW MARCH 2003
Basque stocks relative to non-Basque stocks is worth noting that the results in this section do
during the Good News period and a negative not depend on the adoption of this particular
relative performance during the Bad News period. model. Two other models of normal returns, the
The performances of the Basque and the non- Market Model and the Constant-Mean-Return
Basque portfolios during the Good News and Model are perhaps the most common in the
Bad News periods can be easily visualized in event study literature (see John Y. Campbell et
Figure 6. The rst shaded area, around October al., 1997). These two models can be expressed
of 1998, represents the Good News period; the as special cases of the Fama-French Three-
second one, around September to November of Factor Model:
1999, represents the Bad News period. The ab-
normal gains in value for the Basque portfolio
R jt 5 g j 1 l jR mt 1 AR jt ~Market Model!,
during the Good News period and the losses
during the Bad News period are apparent. In
contrast, the non-Basque portfolio experienced R jt 5 m j 1 AR jt ~Constant-Mean-ReturnModel!,
relatively modest abnormal changes in value
during the two periods. where AR jt is again a zero mean abnormal return
for portfolio j and period t. Columns (1)–(6) in
B. Discussion Table 7 report the results of using these two
alternative models of abnormal returns in lieu of
Notice that if most of the new information the Fama-French Three-Factor Model. The
during the Good News and Bad News periods Market Model in columns (1)–(3) produces
was revealed in certain trading sessions, the results very similar to those in Table 6. The
analysis in this section would provide conser- Constant-Mean-Return Model in columns (4)–
vative inference about the effect of terrorism, (6) is less suitable to study long-run returns
because the coef cients on the Good News t because it assumes that expected returns do not
and Bad News t dummies re ect average abnor- vary during the sample period. Using the
mal returns during these periods. Even so, the Constant-Mean-Return Model, the Basque and
coef cients on the Good News t and Bad non-Basque portfolios behave similarly during
News t dummies are statistically signi cant at the Good News period; however, the non-
conventional levels. Basque portfolio outperforms the Basque port-
To better understand the magnitude of the folio during the Bad News period.
effects described in this section it is useful to Although the Fama-French Three-Factor model
compound the daily effects for the Good News is perhaps the most widespread multifactor
and Bad News periods. Compounding the model of portfolio returns, other factors have
0.0044 coef cient on the Good News t dummy been proposed in the nance literature to ex-
over the 22 trading sessions of the Good News plain stock returns. In particular, factors related
period, we obtain a compounded abnormal re- to the term premia and the default risk premia of
turn of 10.14 percent for the Basque portfolio bonds have been proposed for that purpose (see,
relative to the non-Basque portfolio. Analogous e.g., Nai Fu Chen et al., 1986; Fama and French,
calculations yield a 211.21-percent com- 1993). The results in Fama and French (1993)
pounded abnormal return for the Basque port- show that these type of term and risk structure
folio relative to the non-Basque portfolio during factors may have explanatory power beyond
the 66 trading sessions of the Bad News period. that of R m
t , SML t , and HML t in a time-series
These are sizable differences which would be regression of stock returns. Columns (7)–(9) in
dif cult to explain unless they are attributed to Table 7 show the estimated coef cients for the
the differential effect of the truce on Basque and portfolio regressions when two additional fac-
non-Basque stocks. tors, TERM t and DEF t , are included to re ect
the term and default risk premia of bonds, re-
C. Alternative Models spectively.20 The coef cients of the term and
Fama-French Three-Factor
Model plus term and risk
Market Model Constant-Mean-Return Model structure factors
Non- Non- Non-
Basque Basque Difference Basque Basque Difference Basque Basque Difference
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
Constant 20.0004 0.0001 20.0004 20.0003 0.0001 20.0004 20.0006 0.0000 20.0006
(0.0003) (0.0002) (0.0004) (0.0004) (0.0006) (0.0005) (0.0009) (0.0004) (0.0009)
Rm 0.4696 0.9312 20.4617 0.6726 0.8083 20.1356
(0.0322) (0.0150) (0.0375) (0.0362) (0.0187) (0.0345)
SMB 0.3645 20.2272 0.5917
(0.0461) (0.0237) (0.0445)
HML 0.2553 20.1412 0.3964
(0.0398) (0.0208) (0.0382)
TERM 0.0262 0.0247 0.0015
(0.0478) (0.0258) (0.0452)
DEF 20.0341 20.0823 0.0482
(0.1643) (0.0917) (0.1577)
Good News 0.0054 0.0002 0.0052 0.0100 0.0094 0.0006 0.0050 0.0006 0.0044
(0.0023) (0.0010) (0.0026) (0.0033) (0.0039) (0.0028) (0.0022) (0.0009) (0.0022)
Bad News 20.0021 0.0004 20.0025 20.0017 0.0013 20.0030 20.0020 20.0002 20.0018
(0.0008) (0.0005) (0.0009) (0.0010) (0.0015) (0.0012) (0.0011) (0.0006) (0.0011)
R2 0.3939 0.8887 0.3195 0.0257 0.0127 0.0053 0.4969 0.9109 0.5500
Notes: Heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors are in parentheses. The sample period consists of 747 trading sessions for
1998–2000.
risk structure factors are small and not statisti- IV. Summary and Conclusions
cally signi cant. Moreover, the inclusion of the
term and risk structure factors in the regression Much has been said about the pernicious ef-
does not change the coef cients and standard fects of political con ict on the economy. How-
errors of the Good News t and Bad News t in a ever, to date little case study research has been
substantive way relative to columns (3)–(5) in produced on this matter. This article presents
Table 6, although the coef cient of Bad News t evidence of a negative economic impact of the
in the difference regression becomes marginally terrorist con ict in the Basque Country. The
nonsigni cant at conventional levels. Overall, rst part of this study shows a 10-percent aver-
the results of our event study appear to be age gap between Basque per capita GDP and the
remarkably robust to the choice of the model of per capita GDP of a comparable synthetic re-
normal portfolio returns.21 gion without terrorism which emerges over a
period of two decades. Moreover, changes in
the per capita GDP gap are shown to be asso-
ciated with the intensity of terrorist activity. The
Treasury bill rate at t. We constructed DEFt as the differ-
ence between the yields on long-term corporate bonds and
second part of this study uses the 1998 –1999
long-term government bonds at t. cease- re as a natural experiment to measure
21
Nai Fu Chen et al. (1986) and others have suggested to the effect of the con ict on the market value of
use innovations in macroeconomic variables as factors ex- a sample of Basque and non-Basque rms. We
plaining stock returns. As a further robustness check, we show that Basque stocks outperformed non-
extended the Fama-French model including as additional
factors the unexpected components of macroeconomic an- Basque stocks as the truce became credible. At
nouncements. Following Louis K. C. Chan et al. (1998), we the end of the cease- re, Basque stocks showed
proxied the unexpected components of macroeconomic an-
nouncements using one-step-ahead forecast errors from
ARIMA models, which we reestimated for each macroeco-
nomic announcement. Just like the term and risk structure ments were not signi cant and did not change the coef -
factors, the factors related to macroeconomic announce- cients of interest in any meaningful way.
128 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW MARCH 2003
Notes: Estimates of the parameters in equation (B1). Standard errors are in parentheses.
AR(1) disturbances similar to the one proposed tance [see, e.g., Whitney K. Newey and Daniel
by Harvey (1990, p. 268): McFadden (1994)]. The result is reported in
Table B1 column (1). We proceeded by sequen-
(B1) G t 5 m 1 a1 G t 2 1 1 a2 G t 2 2 1 b0 D t tially eliminating nonsigni cant parameters in
columns (2)–(5), which are estimated by least
1 b1 Dt 2 1 1 b2 D t 2 2 1 u t , squares. Our preferred speci cation, which
contains terms in G t 2 1, G t 2 2, and D t 2 1 is
ut 5 rut 2 1 1 «t , reported in column (5). Inverting the autore-
gressive terms, we obtain the impulse-response
where G t and D t are respectively the per capita function:
5
GDP gap and number of death victims in period
t, and « t are serially independent shocks. The 0 if s 5 0
G t 1 s
vector of unknown parameters u 5 (m, a1 , a2 , ds 5 5 b1 if s 5 1
b0 , b1 , b2 , r)9 is to be estimated. Note how- D t
a 1 d s 2 1 1 a 2 d s 2 2 if s $ 2,
ever, that equation (B1) cannot be directly esti-
mated by least squares, since the error term u t is where s runs over nonnegative integers. We
correlated with G t 2 1 and G t 2 2 by construction. report standard errors that are robust to mis-
Expressing u t 2 1 in term of lags of G t and D t we speci cation. Con dence intervalsfor the impulse-
get: responses in Figure 3 were constructed applying
the delta method. Likelihood-based error bands
(B2) as in Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha (1999)
produced similar results.
G t 5 p0 1 p 1 G t 2 1 1 p 2 G t 2 2 1 p3 G t 2 3
Calculation of Portfolio Returns and Risk
1 p4 D t 1 p5 D t 2 1 1 p 6 D t 2 2 Factors.—We collected daily end-of-the-day
stock prices from Madrid’s continuous-trading
1 p7 D t 2 3 1 « t , stock exchange market for the sample period
January 2, 1998–December 29, 2000, for a total
where the vector 5 (p0 , p1 , ... , p7)9 is a of 748 daily observations. We restricted the
nonlinear function of u . We estimated equation analysis to rms with complete data for the
(B2) consistently by least squares for the period sample period. This restriction eliminates all
1955–1997. The parameters in u were recov- rms which entered the market during the sam-
ered from the estimates of by minimum dis- ple period, had their quotation suspended or
130 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW MARCH 2003
merged with another rm in the data le. This ket valuation. The Basque portfolio contains 14
resulted in a sample of 81 rms. During 1998, stocks and the non-Basque portfolio 59 stocks.
stock prices were quoted in Spanish pesetas. Table B2 provides a list of the stocks in the
Starting in January 4, 1999, quotations were in Basque and non-Basque portfolios.
euros, thus requiring adjustment by multiplying The buy-and-hold portfolios constructed at
the euro gures by the 166.386 peseta/euro the beginning of the sample were value
xed exchange rate. Stock prices were also ad- weighted. There is no rebalancing (buying or
justed for splits. Then, daily returns were cal- selling stocks) in the buy-and-hold portfolios,
culated and adjusted for dividends and equity re ecting a passive investment strategy. Let V ji,t
issue (also adjusted for peseta/euro conversion be the market valuation of all shares of stock i
and splits). The return on the market portfolio held in portfolio j in period t. Let V jt be the
was proxied by the rate of change of the general market valuation of portfolio j at time t, that is
index of the Madrid Stock Exchange (IGBM)
OV ,
nj
and the risk-free asset return was taken to be the
return on the one-day public debt repurchase V jt 5 j
i,t
agreements. To construct the size and book-to- i51
j j
small (S) and big (B). Then, we classi ed stocks R i,t V i,t21. Therefore, the return of portfolio j
into three book-to-market groups: the bottom 30 between periods t 2 1 and t is given by
percent (L), middle 40 percent (M), and top 30
percent (H). The size and book-to-market g- V jt 2 V jt 2 1
ures used in 1998, 1999, and 2000 correspond to R jt 5
V jt 2 1
the end of 1997, 1998, and 1999 gures, respec-
O R X VV D
tively. Then, we constructed six portfolios (S/L, nj j
i,t 2 1
S/M, S/H, B/L, B/M, and B/H) and computed 5 j
i,t j
daily value-weighted returns on those portfo- i51 t21
lios. The size portfolio used in the regressions is
the daily difference between the average return
OR v
nj
j j
on the small-size portfolios (S/L, S/M, and S/H) 5 i,t i,t 2 1 ,
and the average return on the big-size portfolios i51
X X DD
(ten-year or more) corporate and the average yield 5 nj
on long-term (ten-year or more) government V ji,t 2 1
1 1 ¥ R ji,t V jt 2 1
bonds. i51 V jt 2 1
We then computed calendar time returns on
buy-and-hold Basque and non-Basque portfo- ~1 1 R ji,t ! v ji,t 2 1
lios. We excluded an additional Basque rm 5 nj .
since its market valuation accounted for 75 per- 1 1 ¥ R ji,t v ji,t 2 1
cent of the value of Basque portfolio total mar- i51
VOL. 93 NO. 1 ABADIE AND GARDEAZABAL: THE ECONOMIC COSTS OF CONFLICT 131
Basque Stocks
ACR Aceralia Corporación Siderúrgica, S.A. FAE Faes Fábrica Esp. Prod. Qu‡´micos y Farma.
ASA Tavex Algodonera, S.A. GUI Banco Guipuzcoano, S.A.
AZK Azkoyen S.A. KOI Koipe, S.A.
BYB Bodegas y Bebidas, S.A. TUB Tubacex, S.A.
CAF Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarril VAS Banco de Vasconia, S.A.
CPL Cementos Portland VID Vidrala, S.A.
EUR Europistas Concesionaria Española, S.A. VIS Viscofan, S.A.
Non-Basque Stocks
ACE Autopistas Concesionaria Española, S.A. GCO Catalana Occidente, S.A.
ACS Actividades de Const. y Servicios S.A. GPP Grupo Picking Pack, S.A.
ACX Acerinox, S.A. IBG Iberpapel Gestión, S.A.
ADZ Adolfo Dom‡´nguez, S.A. MAP Corporación Mapfre, Cia. Int. de Reaseguros
AGS Sdad. General Aguas de Barcelona, S.A. MDF Grupo Duro Felguera, S.A.
ALB Corporación Financiera Alba, S.A. MPV Mapfre Vida, S.A.
ALD Aldeasa, S.A. MVC Metrovacesa, S.A.
ANA Acciona, S.A. NEA Nicolas Correa, S.A.
AND Banco de Andaluc‡´a NMQ Nueva Montaña de Quijano, S.A.
ARA Energ‡´a e Industrias Aragonesas, S.A. PAS Banco Pastor, S.A.
AZC Asturiana del Zinc, S.A. PIN Prima Inmobiliaria, S.A.
BAM Bami, S.A. Inmobiliaria de Construcciones POP Banco Popular Español, S.A.
BKT Bankinter, S.A. PSG Prosegur, S.A., Cia. de Seguridad
BVA Banco de Valencia, S.A. PUL Puleva, S.A.
CAN Hidroeléctrica del Cantábrico, S.A. REP Repsol, S.A.
CAS Banco de Castilla, S.A. RIO Bodegas Riojanas, S.A.
CBL Banco de Crédito Balear, S.A. SED Seda de Barcelona, S.A. (LA)
CEP Cia. Española de Petroleos, S.A. SOL Sol Meliá, S.A.
CPF Campofrio Alimentación, S.A. TEF Telefónica, S.A.
CRI Cristaleria Española, S.A. UBS Urbanizaciones y Transportes, S.A.
CTF Corte el, S.A. UNF Unión Eléctrica-Fenosa, S.A.
CTG Gas Natural SDG, S.A. (Catalana Gas) UPL Unipapel, S.A.
DIN Dinamia Capital Privado, S.A. URA Uralita, S.A.
DRC Grupo Dragados, S.A. URB Inmobiliaria Urbis, S.A.
ECR Ercros S.A. VAL Vallehermoso, S.A.
ELE Endesa, S.A. VDR Portland Valderrivas, S.A.
ENC Grupo Empresarial Ence, S.A. ZNC Española del Zinc, S.A.
FCC Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A. ZOT Zardoya Otis, S.A.
FIL Filo, S.A. ZRG Banco Zaragozano, S.A.
GAL Banco de Galicia, S.A.
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