Understanding the IPCC’s RCP

Scenarios

What is an RCP scenario?

The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) used to be the
most popular emission scenarios. However, these were recently replaced
by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. The
RCPs were introduced in the 2014 Fifth Assessment Report by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to help model
future climate[ CITATION Coa16 \l 1033 ]. RCPs have become the popular
emission scenarios because unlike the SRES, they take into account
possible mitigation policies and the effects these policies could on
emissions[ CITATION Coa17 \l 1033 ].

There are four RCP scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and

RCP8.5, each increasing in the amount of damage done to the
environment. The numbers in the RCPs represent the radiative forcing in
W/m2 produced by greenhouse gases in 2100[ CITATION Aus20 \l 1033 ].

RCP2.6
 The first scenario is RCP2.6. Most scientists believe that our
current emissions have already passed this scenario. However, if this
were not the case, this scenario would have involved a high level of
effort to curb emissions. Switching to renewable energy (using wind
turbines, solar panels, etc.), developing carbon emissions capture
systems, and relying heavily on transportation methods that don’t pollute
the environment as much as standard vehicles, such as public
transportation, bicycles, and electric vehicles. The effort required would
have been tremendous, but the cost of the impacts on the climate would
have been low, as would the amount of
change needed to adapt to climate
change. RCP2.6 would have likely
been associated with a 1.0 °C
temperature increase relative to 1986-
2005 (below the 2.0 °C threshold at
which climate change is considered to
become dangerous), a 0.4m sea level
Figure 1
rise relative to 1986-2005, and a small
increase in extreme weather events[ CITATION Coa16 \l 1033 ]. Figure 1 shows
the predicted surface temperature under RCP2.6 (temperature colored
red is predicted to be higher than the 20th century average; temperature
colored blue is predicted to be lower than the 20th century average)
[ CITATION Nat203 \l 1033 ].
RCP4.5
The next emissions scenario is RCP 4.5. This scenario takes a
medium-high level of effort to achieve. Like RCP 2.6, a switch to
renewable energy would need to happen but RCP4.5 would involve
transportation methods such as electric vehicles, bicycles, and the
standard vehicles that we currently use. A medium level of adaptation
would be required at a medium
cost. As for the specifics of this
scenario, it is linked to a 1.8 °C
temperature increase relative to
1986-2005 (below the 2.0 °C
threshold at which climate change
is considered to become
dangerous), a 0.47m sea level rise
relative to 1986-2005, and a Figure 2

moderate increase in the amount of

extreme weather events[ CITATION Coa16 \l 1033 ]. Figure 2 shows the predicted
surface temperature under RCP4.5 (temperature colored red is predicted
to be higher than the 20th century average; temperature colored blue is
predicted to be lower than the 20th century average)[ CITATION Nat202 \l 1033 ].
RCP6.0
The third scenario is RCP 6.0. This scenario would involve a low-
medium effort to curb emissions. Energy generation under this pathway
would include a mix of renewable energy sources and our typical coal-
fired power that we use today. Similar to RCP4.5, transportation
methods used would be standard vehicles, bicycles, and electric
vehicles, and a medium level of
adaptation at a medium cost would be
required. RCP6.0 would bring about a
2.2 °C temperature increase relative to
1986-2005 (above the 2.0 °C
threshold at which climate change is
considered to become dangerous), a
0.48m sea level rise relative to 1986-
Figure 3 2005, and a moderate increase of
extreme weather events[ CITATION Coa16 \l
1033 ]. Figure 3 shows the predicted surface temperature under RCP6.0
(temperature colored red is predicted to be higher than the 20th century
average; temperature colored blue is predicted to be lower than the 20th
century average)[CITATION Nat201 \l 1033 ].

RCP8.5
 The final emissions scenario is RCP 8.5. This is the pathway that
current emissions are closest to. Under this scenario, efforts to curb
emissions would be low. Essentially no human changes would be made
to help climate change: we would still use coal-fired power and drive
standard vehicles that pollute the air. The lack of changes would lead to
a high level of adaptation at a high cost. Compared to the other
scenarios, the associated effects are
much higher. RCP8.5 is linked to a
3.7 °C temperature increase relative
to 1986-2005 (above the 2.0 °C
threshold at which climate change is
considered to become dangerous), a
0.63m sea level rise relative to 1986-
2005, and a large increase in the
amount of extreme weather Figure 4
events[ CITATION Coa16 \l 1033 ]. Figure 4 shows the predicted surface
temperature under RCP8.5 (temperature colored red is predicted to be
higher than the 20th century average; temperature colored blue is
predicted to be lower than the 20th century average)[CITATION Nat20 \l 1033 ].

Which RCP scenario is most likely?

 It has been estimated that we have already passed RCP2.6, the
least damaging scenario. Meanwhile, RCP4.5 would require significant
change in human behavior relatively soon, which seems difficult and
unlikely. This leaves RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. In RCP8.5, emissions
continue to rise until 2100. To achieve RCP6.0, emissions will have to
be reduced at some point before 2100 (likely between 2050 and 2080).
As mitigation policies become more popular, RCP6.0 may become the
most likely scenario, but in terms of present emissions, we are closely
following the pathway of RCP8.5[ CITATION Coa17 \l 1033 ].

Works Cited

Australian Government Department of the Environment. n.d. Representative Concentration

Pathways (RCPs) Fact Sheet. Accessed May 2020.
https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/492978e6-d26b-4202-ae51-
5eba10c0b51a/files/wa-rcp-fact-sheet.pdf.

CoastAdapt. 2017. How to understand climate change scenarios. May 4. Accessed May 2020.
https://www.coastadapt.com.au/how-to-pages/how-to-understand-climate-change-
scenarios.
Coast Adapt. 2016. What are the RCPs? Accessed May 2020.
https://coastadapt.com.au/sites/default/files/infographics/15-117-
NCCARFINFOGRAPHICS-01-UPLOADED-WEB%2827Feb%29.pdf.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. n.d. Climate Model: Temperature Change
(RCP 6.0) - 2006 - 2100. Accessed May 2020. https://sos.noaa.gov/datasets/climate-
model-temperature-change-rcp-60-2006-2100/.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. n.d. Climate Model: Temperature Change
(RCP 8.5) - 2006 - 2100. Accessed May 2020. https://sos.noaa.gov/datasets/climate-
model-temperature-change-rcp-85-2006-2100/.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. n.d. Climate Model: Temperature Change
(RCP 2.6) - 2006 - 2100. Accessed May 2020. https://sos.noaa.gov/datasets/climate-
model-temperature-change-rcp-26-2006-2100/.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. n.d. Climate Model: Temperature Change
(RCP 4.5) - 2006 - 2100. Accessed May 2020. https://sos.noaa.gov/datasets/climate-
model-temperature-change-rcp-45-2006-2100/.