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DEVELOPMENT OF ROAD ROUGHNESS MODEL USING ANALYTICAL


HIERARCHY PROCESS FOR RURAL ROAD NETWORK IN HIMACHAL PRADESH

Article · January 2020

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TECHNICAL PAPER

DEVELOPMENT OF ROAD ROUGHNESS MODEL USING ANALYTICAL


HIERARCHY PROCESS FOR RURAL ROAD NETWORK IN HIMACHAL PRADESH

AAKASH GUPTA1 DR.PRADEEP KUMAR2 ASHOK KUMAR GUPTA3 ASHISH KUMAR4


ABSTRACT
Road Asset Management is very crucial for the proper maintenance of highways. The network of roads is increasing at a rapid
rate in India but simultaneously, strategic maintenance is also required at the same pace for economic considerations. Rural
Roads in Himachal Pradesh plays a vital role in connecting the remotest area to the National Highways for transportation
of goods and basic amenities. About 81% of the total road network in Himachal Pradesh contributes to the Rural Road
Network only. The proper maintenance of this huge network is a challenging task for the highway authorities. International
Roughness Index (IRI) plays an important role in developing maintenance strategies for the pavements. IRI depends upon
various distress parameters such as cracking, raveling, potholes, rutting, patching etc. In the present study, attempts has
been made to correlate International Roughness Index with various distress parameters so as to eliminate the cost incurred
in determining IRI using expensive equipments. The Weightage has been given to each distress parameter based on a
questionnaire survey using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The pavement distress data collected on selected twelve
rural road stretches in the vicinity of Shimla and Solan districts of Himachal Pradesh is used to develop linear and non-
linear regression model between IRI and distress parameters. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is also used to develop the
IRI model. All developed models have been studied, compared and it is found that non-linear regression model with a R2
value of 0.84 and MSE of 0.16 is considered as best model for predicting International Roughness Index as compared to other
models.
1. INTRODUCTION on roads which proves to be hurdle in the comfort zone of
road users. It also affects the vehicle operating cost when
Pavements are important asset of highways which needs road roughness is ample. Hence, road roughness plays a
routine or periodic maintenance. Now days, Maintenance vital role in the design and maintenance of highways.
of highways is monitored either by functional evaluation
or by structural evaluation of pavements. Functional The objective of the current study is to develop a road
evaluation of pavements mainly deals with the smoothness roughness model for rural road network in Himachal
of road and the distresses present on them such as raveling, Pradesh which can predict the value of road roughness
cracking, potholes, patching, bleeding, delamination, on the basis of various distresses present on roads. All
rutting, corrugation, overlay bumps etc which can be easily the pavement distresses do not participate equally in the
visible on any highway whereas structural evaluation deals cause of road roughness. Hence, the weightage to various
with the structural parameters of road such as deflection of distresses is given based on surveys conducted using
road, bearing capacity etc. In view of functional evaluation, Analytical Hierarchy Approach (AHP). The weighted
road roughness is an important parameter which is distress parameters have been used to develop models
required by any highway agencies or pavement engineers using linear, non-linear regression and Artificial Neural
to monitor the smoothness of roads. Road Roughness Network technique. Three models have been developed
is also required to categorize different roads in order to and compared with each other. The best model is finally
strategize the maintenance priorities. Road Roughness suggested to predict road roughness value which can be
itself is a function of various pavement distresses present very useful for pavement engineers and highway agencies to

1
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Jaypee University of Information Technology,
Solan, H.P, E-mail:aakash1991gupta@gmail.com
2
Senior Principal Scientist, Pavement Evaluation Division, Central Road Research Institute, New Delhi, Email: pkumarin@yahoo.com
3
Professor Department of Civil Engineering, Jaypee University of
4
Professor Information Technology, Solan, H.P

INDIAN HIGHWAYS NOVEMBER 2020 23


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define maintenance strategies based on pavement distresses ravelling, rutting and Pavement Condition Rating (PCR)
which in turn reduces the time consumed in determining on account of regression analysis. Best model was finally
road roughness value with the help of costly equipments. proposed based on best value of R2.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW Aguiar-Moya et al. (2011) developed IRI model using
Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). They have analysed
Yi Jiang and Shuo (2005) proposed gray system modelling
long term pavement performance data which fits the
theory to estimate the maximum, mean and minimum
mechanistic-empirical IRI model for flexible pavements.
International Roughness Index based on data collected
The model was estimated by analysing possible bias
on Indiana Highways at different pavement ages. It is
which indicated various changes in parameters affecting
found that large numbers of data sets are not required
IRI through time. Mactutis et al. (2000) proposed models
for gray system modelling and it discusses the effect of
based on linear regression to predict IRI based on initial
traffic volume on pavement riding quality. Peter Mucka
IRI reading, percentage cracking and average rut depth.
(2012) developed regression models between IRI and
The relationship is given in Eq. (1) with R2 value of 0.71.
straightedge index. Five different straightedge indexes
were used to develop the model. The tests were conducted IRI = 0.597 (IRIinit) +0.0094 (fatigue percentage)
on both flexible pavements and rigid pavements. + 0.00847 (Rut Depth) + 0.382 (Eq. 1)
Satish Chandra et al. (2013) developed relationship Where,
between roughness index and various distress parameters IRIinit = Initial International roughness index (m/km),
for Indian Highways. They considered four National Rut depth in mm
highways to develop the relationship based on linear, non-
linear regression and artificial neural networks. It is found Various similar relationships between International
that ANN model gives the best result taking the weightage Roughness Index and other distress parameters prevailing
and bias into account for predicting the IRI value. Jay were developed by Mubaraki (2009) for Saudi Interurban
N Meegoda and Shengyan Gao (2014) developed IRI Roads. Choi et al. (2004) developed equations for
model using long term pavement performance data which prediction of IRI for Chinese Pavement Network using
includes parameters as pavement age, structure number, regression methods and Artificial Neural Networks. They
traffic load, freezing index and annual precipitation. The found ANN better than regression analysis. Gupta et al.
optimization of the fit was achieved with the function (2011) developed deterioration models using regression
lsqcurvefit based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm analysis and ANN using structural and functional data
in optimization toolbox of MATLAB. collected on low volume road sections. They have used
California Bearing Ratio (CBR) of sub grade, traffic
Jie Li et al. (2018) proposed precise integration method volume, thickness of pavement and age of pavement as
(PIM) to compute IRI in a time domain which is verified independent parameters to develop the equations. They
to be better than ASTM code and CEN code. Considering found ANN modelling better than regression. Ceylon
the computational efficiency, the PIM method is 2.69 times (2002) used ANN modelling for precise prediction of
higher than the ASTM code and 3.91 times higher than characteristic deflection profiles of flexible pavements
the CEN code. M. I. Hossain et al. (2019) proposed an depending upon traffic loadings.
IRI prediction model using Artificial Neural Network on
long-term pavement performance database for pavements The above literature review suggested that most of the
located in wet-freeze, wet-no freeze, dry freeze and dry- researchers encouraged their research to develop linear
no freeze climatic zones. The lowest value of RMSE as regression models to predict IRI and various distress
0.027 is reported in the study which predicts reasonable parameters. Also, they have not taken the individual
accurate results. weightage of each distress parameter to compare their
relative importance in promoting International Roughness
Jie Li et al. (2019) estimated the International Roughness Index. Hence, the present study uses the individual
Index using Inverse Pseudo excitation method for single weightage of each distress using Analytical hierarchy
source and multisource stationary random excitations. Process technique to develop the non linear model and
The dynamic responses of the planar vehicle model with ANN modelling apart from linear regression model.
four degrees of freedom were used. It was found that
the proposed approach was independent of travelling 3. METHODOLOGY
speed, road roughness grade, and vehicle type. Hozayen In the present study, 12 rural roads stretches each of 2.5
and Alrukaibi (2009) proposed polynomial equations to km length and average width of 3 meter has been selected
develop relationship between road roughness, cracking, as shown in Table 1 for conducting the pavement distress

24 INDIAN HIGHWAYS NOVEMBER 2020


TECHNICAL PAPER

study. Each section (as shown in Fig. 1 and Fig. 2) has been bumps etc. but in the present study only five major distresses
chosen in such a way that it represents as a whole length of i.e. cracking, ravelling, patching, rutting and potholes
the stretch in terms of traffic and climatic conditions. The have been taken into account for the model development
current study deals with the field data collection pertaining as these distresses are present in abundance on the rural
to pavement distresses such as cracking, ravelling, patching, road network in Himachal Pradesh. The different types of
rutting, potholes etc for the selected 12 rural road stretches. cracking distress such as alligator cracking, longitudinal
However, There are various types of pavement distresses cracking, transverse cracking, reflection cracking etc has
such as cracking, ravelling, potholes, patching, rutting, also been aggregated as single cracking distress and is
shoving, delamination, corrugation, bleeding, overlay measured using simple measuring tape.
Table 1 Selected Rural Road Stretches
Road ID Road Name Category Road ID Road Name Category
RR-1 Domehar-Waknaghat Road VR RR-7 Shoghi-Heon Road VR
RR-2 Salogra-Ashwini Khad Road VR RR-8 Shoghi-JaogRoad VR
RR-3 Kyari Bangla-Dera Road VR RR-9 Kandaghat-Kot Road VR
RR-4 Basha Road VR RR-10 Chail Road VR
RR-5 Khawara Chowki-Mashru Road VR RR-11 Nain Basal Road VR
RR-6 Shoghi-Dooh Road VR RR-12 Solan-Malaun Road VR
*VR- Village Road

Fig. 1 Selected Rural Road Stretches

Fig. 2 Selected Rural Road Stretches


INDIAN HIGHWAYS NOVEMBER 2020 25
TECHNICAL PAPER

The percentage cracking in terms of area is shown in Fig. 3. road stretches is shown in Fig. 7.
Various other prevailing distresses viz. Ravelling and
Patching has also been measured using simple tape and
the percentage distress of both in terms of area is shown
in Fig. 4 and Fig. 5 respectively. Potholes which resemble
a bowl like pavement distress has been measured in terms
of volume in the present study. Each pothole is filled with
a known volume of sand as shown in Photo 1 (a) and
that volume is used to quantify each particular pothole.
The total volume of potholes measured on each selected
rural road stretch is shown in Fig. 6. Rutting which is the
longitudinal displacement in the wheel path due to the
wheel load has also been studied and the mean rut depth
has been measured using 3 meter straight edge as shown Fig. 4 Percentage Ravelling of Selected Road Stretches
in Photo 1 (d). The mean rut depth of all selected rural

Fig. 3 Percentage Cracking of Selected Road Stretches Fig. 5 Percentage Patching of Selected Road Stretches

(a) Measurement of Volume of Pothole (b) Sand Patch Method

(c) MERLIN for Roughness Measurement (d) Measurement of Rutting Using Straight edge
Photo 1 (a-d) Measuring Various Distresses

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Fig. 9 IRI on Selected Road Stretches


Fig. 6 Total Volume of Potholes on Selected Road
Stretches 4. WEIGHTAGE DETERMINATION USING AHP
Analytical Hierarchy Process is a structured tool which
is useful in complex decision making. In this process, the
problem is first dissolved into a hierarchy and then sub-
structured into different groups. It can solve any complex
problem related to decision making which involves
expert opinions and perceptions. The AHP incorporates
the imagination, knowledge and experience of each
individual into the analysis of any problem. It synthesizes
the numerous decisions or perceptions mathematically
for which the consistency of the judgments is checked to
evaluate each decision and finally the output is arrived to
Fig. 7 Mean Rut Depth on Selected Road Stretches model the concerned problem statement. In the present
The Mean Texture Depth has also been accounted in the study, the technique of Analytical Hierarchy Process is used
current study which influences the road roughness at to determine the Weightage of different distress parameters
macro level corresponding to pavement surface aggregates which have a considerable effect on International Roughness
characteristics such as flakiness, sharpness, irregularities Index. For this a questionnaire has been prepared as given in
etc. The Mean Texture Depth has been calculated using Appendix-1 in which various distress parameters have been
standard test method “Sand Patch Method” given in compared for their relative importance. The questionnaire
ASTM E965 as shown in Photo 1 (b). The mean texture has been dispersed into Highway Engineers, Scientists,
depth of all selected rural road stretches is shown in Fig. 8. Academicians and Research Scholars for their individual
The International Roughness Index has been determined perception based on their experience and knowledge. A total
using MERLIN as shown in Photo 1 (c) (Machine for of 150 questionnaires have been distributed out of which 119
Evaluating Roughness using Low-cost Instrumentation) responded and used to determine the relative Weightage of
using standard procedure laid in MERLIN user guide. various distress parameters. To check the Consistency Ratio
The International Roughness Index measured for all the (CR) of 119 responses Expert Choice 11 software has been
selected rural road stretches is shown in Fig. 9. used as shown in Fig. 10 and Fig. 11. If the consistency ratio
of any response is more than 0.1 than that particular response
has been discarded. Hence out of total 119 responses, 21
responses whose consistency ratio greater than 0.1 has been
discarded and the Weightage has been calculated based
on remaining 98 responses. The final weightage of each
pavement distress parameter which has appreciable effect
on IRI after considering 98 responses whose inconsistency
is less than 0.1 are given in Table 2. Pavement Distress
Weightage depicts the importance of particular distress
with respect to its affect on riding comfort and its severity
to pavement deterioration, as all the pavement distresses do
not participate equally in the cause of road roughness.
Fig. 8 Mean Texture Depth on Selected Road Stretches

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TECHNICAL PAPER

Fig. 10 Rating Input in Expert Choice Software based on Various Questionnaire

Fig. 11 Consistency Ratio Calculation using Expert Choice Software

Table 2 Weightage of Different Pavement Distresses pavement distress data collected on the selected 12 rural
Based on AHP road sections. Pavement distresses like cracking, ravelling,
Pavement Distress Type Weightage patching, potholes, rutting, mean texture depth which
Potholes 20.69% constitutes an appreciable effect on the value of IRI on
Cracking 33.42% rural roads in Himachal Pradesh have been taken account
Rut Depth/Rutting 5.86% for the IRI prediction model. The data collected has been
Ravelling 14.22% divided into 60 data sets in which each data set represents
Patching 22.27% data collected over a road length of 500 m which includes
Mean Texture Depth 3.54% all the distress parameters and IRI. Each pavement distress
parameter value collected during the survey has been
5. MODEL DEVELOPMENT
multiplied with respective weightage factor arrived through
Efforts have been made to develop the mathematical models AHP given in Table 2. The weighted distress data which
which can predict the value of International Roughness represents actual response in pavement performance and
Index for the entire rural road network in Himachal maintenance have been used to generate models for better
Pradesh. Various models have been generated based on the lucidity of International Roughness Index.

28 INDIAN HIGHWAYS NOVEMBER 2020


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6. MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL Where,


Attempts have been made to develop a mathematical C0 = model constant, and C1, C2, C3 ,C4 ,C5 ,C6 =
multiple linear regression model to predict the value of coefficients of Cracking (CR), Ravelling (RV),
International Roughness Index based on weighted distress Patching (PC), Potholes (PT), Mean Rut Depth
parameters. The data has been divided into test size and (MRD), Mean Texture Depth (MTD) respectively
training size. 75% data has been used for training purpose given in Table 3.
to generate the multiple linear regression model and 25%
Table 3 Coefficients of Model Parameter
data for testing purpose. The model have been developed
Model Parameter Coefficients
using linear regression with sklearn library of PYTHON.
Intercept C0= 6.191
All the distress parameters have been plotted as shown in
Area of Cracking C1= 0.034
Fig. 12 to check the correlation in between the parameters.
Area of Ravelling C2= -0.339
The correlation matrix has been developed as shown in
Area of Patching C3= 0.012
Table 4 which shows that none of the distress parameter is
Volume of Potholes C4= 76.575
correlated to each other and hence all parameters are used
Mean Rut Depth C5= 0.627
to develop the mathematical model. The developed model
Mean Texture Depth C6= -50.086
is given in Eq. 2 and various statistical parameters of the
models have been determined using sklearn library tools Where, CR = weighted area of cracking (m2 per 1500 m2),
of PYTHON. The developed model was studied and tested RV = weighted area of ravelling (m2 per 1500 m2), PC =
with the actual training data and test data. The R2 value weighted area of patching (m2 per 1500 m2), PT = weighted
has been determined for both training data and testing data volume of potholes (m3 per 1500 m2), MRD = weighted
which is 0.821 and 0.810 respectively as shown in Fig. 13. mean rut depth (mm per 1500 m2), MTD = weighted mean
The MSE (Mean Squared Error) of training data and texture depth (mm per 1500 m2)
testing data was found to be 0.24 and 0.19 respectively. 7. NON-LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL
IRI = C0 + C1*CR + C2*RV +C3*PC+ C4*PT Another model has also been developed based on Non-
+ C5*MRD + C6*MTD Eq. 2 Linear Regression Analysis to predict International
Roughness Index corresponding to pavement distresses.
R2=0.83

R2 = 0.821 R2 = 0.810

Fig. 12 Validation of Linear Regression Model


Again, the model has been developed using 75% training to be 0.22 and 0.16 respectively.
data and 25% testing data. The developed non-linear model
IRI = β1 + β2*(CR) β3 + β4(RV) β5 + β6 (PC)β7
is presented in Eq. 3. The non-linear analysis has been
+ β8(PT)β9 + β10(MRD)β11 + β12(MTD)β13 Eq. 3
done in Excel and the coefficients have been determined
using SOLVER function by minimizing the Sum of Where,
Squared Residuals (SSR) depending upon the coefficients β1 = -227.01, β2= 0.031, β3 = 0.903, β4= 0.108, β5 =
of model parameters. The R2 value has been determined 0.607, β6= 107.315, β7= -0.002
for both training data and testing data which is 0.844 and
0.837 respectively as shown in Fig. 14. The MSE (Mean β8= 120.981, β9 = 0.003, β10= 6.886, β11 = 0.168, β12=
Squared Error) of training data and testing data was found -12.743, β13= 0.677

INDIAN HIGHWAYS NOVEMBER 2020 29


TECHNICAL PAPER

Table 4 Correlation Matrix


Weighted Weighted Weighted Weighted Weighted Weighted
IRI area of area of area of volume of mean rut mean
(mm) cracking ravelling patching potholes depth texture
(m2) (m2) (m2) (m3) (mm) depth (mm)
IRI (mm) 1 0.34 0.75 -0.40 0.09 0.56 -0.01
Weighted area of cracking (m2) 0.34 1 0.17 0.06 -0.17 0.59 0.19
Weighted area of ravelling (m2) 0.75 0.17 1 -0.04 0.04 0.26 0.05
Weighted area of patching (m2) -0.40 0.06 -0.04 1 -0.13 -0.14 -0.01
Weighted volume of potholes (m3) 0.09 -0.17 0.04 -0.13 1 -0.20 0.16
Weighted mean rut depth (mm) 0.56 0.59 0.26 -0.14 -0.20 1 0.11
Weighted mean texture depth (mm) -0.01 0.19 0.05 -0.01 0.16 0.11 1

Fig. 13 Correlation Between the Distress Parameters

30 INDIAN HIGHWAYS NOVEMBER 2020


TECHNICAL PAPER

R2 = 0.844
R2 = 0.837

Fig. 14 Validation of Non-Linear Regression Model


has been used for deep learning of the model to update the
network weights on iterative basis.
9. RESULTS
The percentage cracking is found to be lowest (0.14%) in
RR9 whereas it is highest in rural road stretch of RR1 with
5.36% as shown in Fig. 3. Also, the percentage ravelling
is found to be lowest in RR9 with 0.28% and shown a
significant effect in RR5 with 38.74% as shown in Fig. 4.
The distress patching is found to be very low on all the roads
in a range of 0.22% - 2.68% as shown in Fig. 5. The highest
percentage patching is found to be on RR6. The total volume
of potholes measured through replacing a known volume of
Fig. 15. Artificial Neural Network
sand with the pothole bowl is found to be significant on RR7
8. ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK with 0.28 m3 of volume (Fig. 6). However, least volume of
MODELLING pothole is found to be on RR1 with 0.076 m3 of volume
(Fig. 6). Also, the mean rut depth is found to be highest
Attempt has been made to use ANN to predict IRI based on
on RR1 with a value of 16.8 mm and RR9 secures lowest
various distress parameters. The model has been developed
8.26 mm mean rut depth as shown in Fig. 7. The mean
using ANN in PYTHON. Out of total data observations,
texture depth obtained by sand patch method is found to be
60% data has been used to train the ANN model and
significant on RR5 with 1.16 mm (Fig. 8). The International
remaining 40% to test the model and for validation purpose Roughness Index derived by MERLIN is obtained by taking
to avoid any over fitting. One hundred epochs/iterations the average of four reading per 500 m stretch and found to
has been performed 10 times to arrive at MSE value of be highest on RR5 with 8.5 m/km whereas it is lowest on
0.371.The MSE value decreased drastically as the number RR4 with 5.9 m/km as shown in Fig. 9.
of iterations or epochs started increasing. The equation
derived from the neural network used in this model is quite The weightage given to various distresses as shown in
complex for the simple reason that four hidden layer each Table 2 using Analytical Hierarchy Process shows that as
having 32 neurons have been accounted as shown in Fig. 15 per the experts ravelling has greater importance relative to
and dense layer neural network has been used and hence, other distress parameters and mean texture depth leads to
the connection between the input and hidden layers is quite least important parameter in pavement performance and
complex. Also when the number of hidden layers or nodes maintenance.
in the hidden layer increases the number of computations The R 2 value in linear regression model for both training
increases and due to this, more central processing unit or data and testing data is 0.821 and 0.810 respectively
graphical processing unit computations are required. The which shows a good correlation as shown in Fig. 13. The
result computed by increasing the number of layers has MSE (Mean Squared Error) of linear regression model
been so much nexus that the calculation of equation derived for training and tested data is found to be 0.24 and 0.19
from the neural network was very complex to write down. respectively which shows estimated values of IRI using this
Rectified Linear Unit (ReLu) Activation functions have model are very close to the observed values of IRI. The R 2
been used in the development of model. ADAM optimizer value in non linear regression model for both training data

INDIAN HIGHWAYS NOVEMBER 2020 31


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and testing data is 0.844 and 0.837 respectively which also Bump Integrator etc. can be used in further scope of the
shows a good correlation as shown in Fig. 14. The MSE of research. Also, the number of rural road stretches selected
Non linear regression model for training and tested data in Himachal Pradesh for collecting field data can be
is found to be 0.22 and 0.16 respectively whereas the MSE increased in further research work.
value of model developed using Artificial Neural Network
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