Estimation at Signalized Intersections

Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering
A Review of Methodological Approaches for Saturation Flow

Estimation at Signalized Intersections
Journal: Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering
Manuscript ID cjce-2018-0696.R1
Manuscript Type: Review
Date Submitted by the

30-Apr-2019
Author:
Complete List of Authors: Mondal, Satyajit; Indian Institute of Technology (BHU) Varanasi,
Department of Civil Engineering
Gupta, Ankit; Indian Institute of Technology Banaras Hindu University
Headway, Influencing factors, Operational characteristics, Saturation

Keyword:
flow rate, Signalized intersection.
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Is the invited manuscript for

consideration in a Special Not applicable (regular submission)
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Issue? :
https://mc06.manuscriptcentral.com/cjce-pubs
Page 1 of 48 Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering
1 A Review of Methodological Approaches for Saturation Flow Estimation at

2 Signalized Intersections
3
4 Satyajit Mondal
5 Research Scholar
6 Department of Civil Engineering
7 Indian Institute of Technology (Banaras Hindu University) Varanasi
8 Uttar Pradesh, India-221005
9 Email: satyajit07iiest@gmail.com
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13 Ankit Gupta (Corresponding Author)*
14 Assistant Professor
15 Department of Civil Engineering
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16 Indian Institute of Technology (Banaras Hindu University) Varanasi

17 Uttar Pradesh, India-221005
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18 Mob: +91-78391-14642
19 Fax: +91-542-2368283
20 Email: anki_ce11@yahoo.co.in
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Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering Page 2 of 48
32 Abstract
33 The estimation of the saturation flow (SF) is the utmost component for performance evaluation of
34 a signalized intersection. The flow rate estimation procedure includes the analysis of the vehicles
35 headway, vehicles discharge rate, passenger car unit (PCU), effective green time and cycle length
36 of the signalling system. This study makes an attempt to exhaustively review the existing literature
37 and its suitability along with the multiple factors affecting the performance of signalized
38 intersection. Different methodological approaches and soft computing techniques used worldwide
39 by the researchers both in developed and developing countries are emphasized. This study also
40 highlights the several influencing factors that have a significant impact on saturation flow value
41 and several methodological approaches to find out the flow value through normalizing the
42 influencing factors which lead to a better way for planning and designing of a signalized
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43 intersection.
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44 Keywords: Headway, Influencing factors, Operational characteristics, Saturation flow rate,
45 Signalized intersection.
46 Introduction
47 Intersections are nodal points in the transportation network, and their efficiency of operation
48 significantly influences the performance of the entire network. The traffic operation and its
49 regulation would be more simple and effective if all the vehicles in the traffic stream have the same
50 vehicular characteristics (Jain et al. 2014). However, the evaluation of saturation flow especially
51 in mixed traffic conditions is crucial mainly due to heterogeneous properties of traffic where
52 vehicles are traveling on the same right of way without any lane separation (Radhakrishnan and
53 Mathew 2011; Fazalmohammed and Dave 2014; Arasan and Vedagiri 2006, Mondal and Gupta
54 2019). In such a traffic stream, saturation flow prediction becomes more sensitive as no single
55 vehicle governs a good percentage of share than that in developed countries where car is the
56 predominant vehicle in the traffic stream. While during dissipation, vehicles are more interested
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57 to travel through the gaps available between larger vehicles in a parallel way instead of following
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58 the leading vehicle (Deo and Ruskin 2014; Mohanty and Gupta 2015). Thus, the performance
59 evaluation of a signalized intersection is much complicated due to the non-lane disciplined mixed
60 traffic stream. The assessment of saturation flow is the principal component for performance
61 evaluation (capacity and level of service) as well as fruitful planning and designing of a signalized
62 intersection. Highway capacity manual (HCM) 2010 has provided the basic concepts and models
63 for saturation flow estimation mainly for lane-based homogeneous traffic stream with several
64 adjustment factors. Each factor has a significant impact on the flow value. A number of studies
65 have been focussed in evaluating several influencing factors and several mathematical models
66 have been formed to normalize its effect on saturation flow. The flow rate estimation procedure
67 includes the analysis of the vehicles headway, vehicles discharge rate, passenger car unit (PCU),
68 effective green time and cycle length of the signaling system (Mondal and Gupta 2018). The
69 variation in magnitudes of the vehicle and its composition along with their desire movements,
70 geometric elements, and signal characteristics effectively influence the saturation flow value
71 (Rajgor et al. 2016). The flow characteristics of signalized intersections can be assessed with
72 several procedures with various input parameters. The performance of a signalized intersection is
73 also dependent on the pattern of a queue discharge and it's headway characteristics which are also
74 influencing the whole network system (Lin et al. 2004; Radhakrishnan and Ramadurai 2015,
75 Bargegol et al. 2015; Esmaeeli et al. 2018). Therefore, this paper reviews several influencing
76 factors affecting the saturation flow and enlists several methodological approaches to evaluate the
77 flow at a signalized intersection.
78
79 Flow Characteristics at Signalized Intersection
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80 As per HCM (2010), fundamental aspects of flow can be described with Fig 1 which depicts
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81 vehicles flow through the intersection during a single cycle time. The layout is distributed into
82 three parts. The first part shows a time-space relationship of vehicles on an intersection approach
83 during the red, yellow and green time of the signal. The second part levels the individual timing
84 of a signal. The third part is an ideal representation of discharge flow through the intersection
85 approach during green time. The maximum discharge flow during green time is indicated as
86 saturation flow. It is a simplified representation of the actual vehicle position as a function of time
87 and also suggests that arrival and departure headways are relatively uniform during the cycle.
88 Fig. 1
89 A number of researchers utilize the time-distance relationship to describing and evaluating several
90 traffic parameters for performance and designing of an intersection at various traffic scenario.
91 Kyte et al. (2008) suggested that both the speed contour data and headway differential data of a
92 departing queue in time-distance relationship must be included in the signal design processing.
93 They proposed a three region based time distance domain in terms of signal parameters and
94 detection zone length to describing the minimum green time required for a queue dispersion. Yang
95 and Menendez (2017) proposed a convex model for queue length estimation with the assumption
96 of triangular speed-distance fundamental diagram. They developed the model based on kinematic
97 wave theory which estimates the traffic state changes and back of queue curve. This back of queue
98 curve was further used to define the arrival of vehicle pattern for the traffic scenario. Cai et al.
99 (2014) and Cheng et al. (2011) analysed the cycle by cycle queue length at signalized intersection
100 for measuring level of service. The vehicle trajectory data collected at the upstream using mobile
101 sensors were utilized for queue length estimation. Three different cases were considered based on
102 space relationship and corresponding models were proposed to estimating maximum queue length
103 based on Light-Whitham-Richards theory. Zhao and Zhang (2017) estimated queue length based
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104 on microscopic traffic flow model using the time-space queuing dynamics based on three regions
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105 using real world connected vehicle data. Bonneson (1992) analysed and developed model of
106 various queued driver characteristics such discharge headway, stop line speed of vehicles and
107 driver acceleration characteristics based on time-distance relationship of individual vehicle class
108 at signalized junctions.
109
110 Problem Statement
111 Saturation flow is defined as the maximum number of vehicles that can cross a point or line in unit
112 time (generally an hour) of an approaching lane if the green time is available throughout the time.
113 HCM (2010) has mentioned a basic methodology for estimation of saturation flow, assuming that
114 all vehicles are following a strict lane discipline. Researchers from various countries have brought
115 a significant studies on saturation flow estimation for lane disciplined homogeneous traffic stream.
116 However, lane disciplined flow is not observed in developing counties due to the mixed nature of
117 the traffic stream. The fundamental difference in traffic flow makes the models inappropriate for
118 mixed traffic conditions. Therefore, the previous studies on saturation flow estimation are needed
119 to understand for both the homogeneous and heterogeneous traffic conditions for better utilization
120 of the proposed models. However, a less number of studies have been focused on saturation flow
121 estimation for mixed traffic conditions. The proposed models for saturation flow estimation under
122 homogeneous traffic conditions cannot be directly implemented in mixed traffic stream due to the
123 non-lane discipline flow.
124 A significant effort has been made by various researchers to develop models for mixed traffic
125 conditions with limited field conditions and a number of roadway and traffic assumptions. Also,
126 most of the studies framed models for heterogeneous traffic conditions using the basic
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127 methodology proposed for the homogeneous traffic stream.

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128 Therefore, the present study addresses several saturation flow studies focused on homogeneous as
129 well as mixed traffic stream conditions. Several influencing parameters on saturation flow
130 mentioned in various guidelines were also discussed. Parameters used in multiple studies to
131 develop models were recognized. Later, different methodological approaches underlined by the
132 various researchers and guidelines are presented along with the various influencing parameters
133 incorporated in the model formulation.
134
135 Assessment of Saturation Flow Studies
136 Saturation flow is a vital performance measure parameter of maximum vehicles flow used for the
137 design of intersection and control applications. Some studies have been directed on this vital issue
138 over the last few decades, and most of them are focused on lane disciplined traffic flow. Webster
139 (1958) first did the investigation on saturation flow value at a signalized intersection and provided
140 a direct relationship of saturation flow with approach width for lane disciplined flow with certain
141 assumptions. A detailed guideline for design and analysis of a signalized intersection was then
142 provided by the HCM (1965). Later in HCM (2000, 2010 and in the latest version 2016 ), a basic
143 saturation flow model is mentioned with several adjustment factors.
144 The saturation flow varies with various roadway, traffic and control conditions of an
145 intersection. Thus several guidelines have considered various factors for modeling saturation flow
146 according to their traffic and geometric conditions at the intersection. Table 1 summaries various
147 factors that are discussed in the guidelines of different countries.
148 Table 1
149 A substantial effort has been made by the researchers from last few decades to assess saturation
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150 flow and various saturation flow adjustment factors both in developed and developing countries.
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151 Several methodological approaches along with the methodology mentioned in HCM are
152 effectively utilized to evaluate saturation flow value and its influencing factors. The subsequent
153 sections describes the effect of various influencing parameters of roadway, traffic and control
154 conditions on saturation flow value found in both developed and developing countries.
155
156 Effect of Roadway Geometry on Saturation Flow
157 Several roadway geometry factors such as number of lanes and its width, lane approach grade,
158 turning radius, shared lanes, lane width reduction are studied and evaluated their effects on
159 saturation flow value. A sufficient amount of studies discussed about the impact of various
160 roadway geometry on saturation flow value (Potts et al. 2007; Shao et al. 2011; Susilo and Solihin
161 2011; Bester and Meyers 2007; Le et al. 2000; Chen et al. 2011).
162 Lane width is one of the crucial parameter in saturation flow estimation. Most of the studies
163 reported that saturation flow increases with increase of the lane width (Potts et al. 2007; Shao et
164 al. 2011; Susilo and Solihin, 2011). Whereas, some studies proposed a range of saturation flow
165 value for different sets of approach lane width. Webster and Cobbe (1966) proposed that the
166 saturation flow of an intersection can be directly estimated using its approach width as:
167 S  160  W
168 Where S denotes the saturation flow value in terms of PCU/hr of green and w represents the
169 approach width in feet.
170 Sarna and Malhotra (1967) conducted similar study for the mixed traffic in India by collecting data
171 from a number of signalized intersections in Delhi. A basic model was proposed with various
172 limitations using approach width as:

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173 S  129.5  W  103.5

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174 Bhattacharya and Bhattacharya (1982) proposed to estimate saturation flow of an approach
175 separately for through and right turning traffic in mixed traffic condition as prevalent in India.
176 They suggested a linear regression model based on the data sets of Calcutta to estimate through
177 saturation flow for the approach width varied from 3.5 m to 10.5 m.
178 S s  490  W  360
179 Miller (1969) supported the past research by his analysis on various signalized intersections of
180 Australia. He suggested that saturation flow increases with increase in lane width but within a
181 range of 3.05m – 3.95m. Susilo and Solihin (2011) also suggested that saturation flow does not
182 differ much when the approach width changes from small (3, 4, 5.9 m) to medium (6, 7, 8.9 m)
183 while saturation flow shows a different value when approach width become large (9, 10, 11, 12
184 m). The number of lanes and lane approach grade at the intersection area for vehicles movement
185 have a substantial effect on flow value (Shao et al. 2011). Le et al. (2000) found that saturation
186 flow rate increases about 4.3% in three-lane as compared to two-lane through movement
187 approaches and it increases by 25% for each additional through lane. Bester and Meyers (2007)
188 proposed a combined model indicating the effect of number of lanes, gradient and speed on
189 saturation flow.
190 s  990  288  TL  8.5  SL  26.8  G 1
191 Where, s is the saturation flow (veh/hr/lane), TL is the number of through lanes, SL is the speed
192 limit (60 or 80 km/hr) and G is the gradient (%).
193 Shao et al. (2011) examined the effect of exclusive left turn lane turning radius on saturation flow.
194 A simple saturation flow model was developed between saturation flow, lane width and turning
195 radius using partial least square (PLS) method.

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196 S L  815.4  136.2  w  11.3  r 2.7m ≤ w ≤ 4.0m 2

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197 20m ≤ r ≤ 48m
198 The result shows an increase in saturation flow when turning radius and lane width increases.
199 Type of lane (shared lane, heterogeneous lane) has an important input parameter in flow
200 estimation. A few studies were conducted where the type of lane is considered (Shang Zhang and
201 Fan 2014). Chen et al. (2011) concluded that efficient utilization of shared lane by through traffic
202 could significantly improve the flow value. Also, the shared lane with a larger turning radius, the
203 SFR displays a stable trend due to the availability of larger turning area where vehicles can be
204 stored within turning bays. Bargegol et al. (2016) studied the saturation flow at the far-side legs of
205 a signalized intersection using macroscopic and microscopic method. They proposed that
206 saturation flows at far-side legs are higher than the saturation flows at near side legs. They also
207 developed a primary linear relationship between the lane width and saturation flow of far-side legs.
208 The impact of upstream and downstream short lane have effectively analyzed by the researchers
209 (Hurley 1997). Zhao et al. (2013) proposed a probability theory for modelling the impacts of
210 upstream short lane on capacity at signalized intersections. They found a significant impact of
211 upstream short lane on capacity and the capacity shows a positive and negative correlation with
212 effective green time and short lane length respectively. They recommended a minimum 100 m
213 length of short lane for adequate vehicle regulation and also an optimum cycle length for maximum
214 capacity when the upstream short lane exists.
215
216 Effect of Traffic Characteristics on Saturation Flow
217 A number of studies have been directed towards the assessment of the effect of different traffic
218 characteristics on saturation flow value. Several influencing factors such as the effect of bus
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219 blockage and taxi blockage, presence of different vehicle classes such as motorcycles, heavy
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220 vehicles, bicycles, the influence of pedestrian’s activities, U-turn behavior of vehicles, on-street
221 parking activity and lane discipline characteristics are widely analyzed.
222 Presence of vehicle types (number and percentage) is one of the major element which
223 directly influences the flow value of any road section. Researchers from developing countries had
224 contributed a significant role to evaluate the effect of the presence of vehicle classes on saturation
225 flow. Two Wheeler has a significant influence on saturation flow value due to its higher
226 acceleration and maneuverability properties. Some studies (Vien et al. 2008; Lila et al. 2013;
227 Adams et al. 2015; Davoodi et al. 2015) have found that the presence of motorized two-wheeler
228 has effectively increased the discharge value. Regression technique was used by Minh and Sano
229 (2003) to investigate the impact of motorcycles on the saturation flow. They formulated a
230 generalized model to evaluate the saturation flow value by considering the presence of motorcycle
231 on approach lane.
232 S  1965  105  ( w  3.5)  0.12  mc R2 = 0.79 3
233 Where S stands for saturation flow rate (PCU/effective green hour), w is the lane width (m), and
234 mc is the number of motorcycles passing the stop line in one hour.
235 They also found that the headway was slightly different and start-up lost time increases
236 non-linearly when a number of motorcycle increases in front of the first car in the queue. They
237 concluded that with the higher percentage of motorcycles on any approach the headway decreases
238 and saturation flow increases shown in Fig 2. They strongly affect traffic flow, and it should be
239 taken into account in geometric design and operation of the signalized intersection.
240 Fig. 2
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241
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242 Whereas the presence of heavy vehicles considerably reduces the flow value at a signalized
243 intersection (Lewis and Benekohal 2007). Kockelman and Shabih (2000) found that saturation
244 flow was inversely proportional to the percentage of light-duty trucks (LDT) within the traffic
245 stream and the number of stops made by LDT around the intersection approaches. On an average
246 the LDTs are replacing almost 1.2 passenger cars in through traffic with a 10% fall in through
247 traffic capacity due to 50% share of LDT at signalized-network shown in Fig 3. Therefore, LDTs
248 should be considered separately in capacity estimation as it required higher headways than
249 passenger cars.
250 Fig 3.
251 Also, if the heavy vehicles makeup to 40 percent of the traffic stream, then the capacity reduces
252 up to 30 percent which is substantially less than the value recommended by HCM (Lewis and
253 Benekohal 2007).
254 The effects of non-motorized vehicle (bicycle) and pedestrians facilities provided at the
255 signalized intersection also influenced the operational parameters of an intersection (Allen et al.
256 1998; Milazzo et al. 1998). Allen et al. (1998) used regression technique to develop a relationship
257 between total occupancy due to pedestrians and bicycles and proportion of right turns in lane
258 groups for the estimation of saturation flow adjustment factor due to pedestrians and bicycles
259 (fRpb) that reflects the reduction in saturation flow for lane groups.
260 Sometimes blockages are made at the intersection area due to the presence of near side bus
261 stop or the on-street parking activity, greatly affect the saturation flow value (Tuffour et al. 2014;
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262 Cao and Menendez 2015). A bottleneck condition is formed at the downstream side due to the
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263 presence of bus stop area, results in a reduction in capacity as well as increases the congestion
264 level over the entire network. Yao et al. (2015) investigated the effect of near side bus stop on
265 capacity at signalized intersection. They assumed the bus stops are located in the shared lane of
266 through and right turn traffic where buses do not require to change lane while crossing the
267 intersection. They found that the capacity changes significantly with the increase in arrival rate of
268 the buses as well as the distance between the bus stop and the intersection. Tuffour et al. (2014)
269 modified the bus blockage factor mentioned in HCM 2010 to analyse the effect of roadside local
270 minibusses/taxis interruption in traffic flows through the intersection. The equivalent unit of local
271 minibusses/taxis was used in the modification to analyse the current traffic conditions. Behbahani
272 et al. (2017) analysed the taxi blockage adjustment factors for saturation flow estimation at the
273 outlet legs of signalized intersection. They proposed a time of 11.31 for the average blockage of
274 taxi at the outlet legs of signalized intersection.
275 Cao and Menendez (2015) implemented a hydrodynamic theory to analyze the effect of on-street
276 parking maneuverer. They found that for an undersaturated intersection, the service rate reduction
277 might be higher when the vehicle parks at the upstream. Although, for an oversaturated
278 intersection, parking near the downstream reduces the service rate significantly.
279 Moreover, the vehicle movements in different directions through the intersection
280 remarkably break off the flow characteristics. The presence of right turning traffic or U-turning
281 traffic at the through lane or at the extreme left lane reduces the capacity (Chen et al. 2011; Liu et
282 al. 2005). Behbahani et al. (2017) determined the adjustment factor for parking manoeuvre for
283 saturation flow at outlet legs of signalized intersection. They found that the average parking
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284 manoeuvre time is a function of lane width and it is inversely varied with the lane width. They also
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285 proposed a 7.37 seconds of parking manoeuvre time at the outlet legs of signalized intersection for
286 the traffic designing.
287 Dehghani-Zadeh and Fallah Tafti (2018) analysed the saturation flow for weak lane
288 discipline traffic stream conditions. They proposed three different models using effective width,
289 traffic composition and opposite oncoming through traffic flow for the estimation of saturation
290 flow at three different traffic situations such as unopposed mixed straight and turning traffic
291 movements, opposed mixed straight and turning traffic movements and merely straight through
292 movements.
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296 Effect of Control and Other Conditions on Saturation Flow
297 Variability in signal timing has a potential impact on flow value. The signal timing plays a major
298 role to estimate the flow value as well as it is effectively used to design a signalized intersection.
299 In HCM (2000) the green ratio for a particular lane group is incorporated to find out the capacity
300 of the intersection. Recently the fixed timing traffic signals are changed into a countdown one
301 where drivers can see time duration for each red, yellow and green interval. Several studies have
302 been made to evaluate the effect of the signal countdown timer on different traffic flow
303 characteristics both in developed and developing countries (Devalla et al. 2015; Raksuntorn 2012;
304 Ibrahim et al. 2008; Sharma et al. 2012). Most of them found a lower value of headway and start-
305 up loss time due to the countdown process. Wenbo et al. (2013) found that the headway of vehicles
306 reduces and corresponding flow value increases by 5 to 10 percentage. Also, the capacity of the
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307 intersection improves by 5 to 10 percentage due to the installation of such signals.

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308 Inconsistency in saturation flow value at a signalized intersection may be observed due to the
309 weather conditions (sunny, cloudy, rainfalls, snowfalls etc). Researchers from developed countries
310 have made a tremendous effort to analyze the effect of adverse weather conditions on saturation
311 flow value (Asamer and Zuylen 2011; Amison et al. 2004; Lu et al. 2016). Chodur et al. (2011)
312 found that the saturation flow decreases significantly due to adverse weather conditions. The flow
313 value rduces upto 8.5%- 12.3% in long-duration rainfalls, 3.6% in short duration rainfalls, 10%
314 during snowfalls and 11.4% in cloudy or foggy weather respectively. Amison et al. (2004)
315 concluded that the start of loss time is not so much significantly affected by the extreme weather.
316 Although it has a significant impact on flow value due to a change in vehicles headway and
317 operational speed for the rough weather conditions.
318 Various guidelines and authors have proposed the SFR values for different countries as per the
319 roadway, traffic and control conditions. These values are shown in Table 2.
320 Table 2
321
322 Summary
323 Most of the studies have considered an analytical approach to estimate and develop a model for
324 saturation flow value using various influencing parameters due to the simplicity of the estimation
325 procedure. Several road geometry parameters were incorporated in the development of saturation
326 flow. Although, most of the studies were centered on lane based flow where strict lane discipline
327 is observed. While in a mixed traffic, vehicles are traveling haphazardly without following its lane
328 due to the improper lane markings. Therefore, a shared lane can be observed with a combination
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329 of through, right and left turning vehicles at an intersection approach. Thus, such type of traffic
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330 stream needs an acute and comprehensive evaluation to understand such non-lane discipline flow.
331 Several traffic stream parameters were also incorporated in various studies to analyse its effect on
332 saturation flow value. In most of the cases, the regression technique was effectively used to analyse
333 a single independent variable on saturation flow. Also, the vehicle having a higher compositional
334 share (dominating vehicle) in the traffic stream is mostly considered in the saturation flow model
335 development. But, in a mixed traffic stream a significant compositional percentage can be observed
336 under each vehicle class. Therefore, the direct implementation of such models is less useful for
337 such mixed traffic stream.
338 A significant contribution is made by various researchers to formulate saturation flow using several
339 parameters of traffic, roadway geometry and control conditions primarily for lane-based
340 homogeneous traffic conditions. Whereas in the mixed traffic stream, broad traffic characteristics
341 can be observed due to combinations of several vehicle classes along with the vast driving culture.
342 The driving behavior of a mixed traffic stream is tedious to evaluate due to the presence of a variety
343 of vehicles with their extensive static and dynamic characteristics. Most of the studies did not
344 consider the driving behavior in the saturation flow estimation. However, the evaluation of
345 saturation flow especially in mixed traffic conditions is crucial mainly due to heterogeneous
346 properties of traffic where vehicles are traveling in the same right of way without any lane
347 separation. In such a traffic stream, saturation flow prediction becomes more sensitive as no single
348 vehicle governs a good percentage of share. Hence, an extensive saturation flow analysis is still
349 required through considering various significant parameters for such mixed traffic stream.
350 Several methodological approaches were reported in various studies to evaluate the saturation flow
351 values by considering various influencing factors are described in the following section.
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352
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353 Methodological Approaches for Saturation Flow Estimation
354 The saturation flow designates the maximum number of vehicles that can pass through a given
355 section of lane group under prevailing traffic, roadway and control conditions. The saturation flow
356 concept assumes that the lane group has the green time available at all over the real time. A number
357 of methodological approach are suggested and used by various researchers to analyse and develop
358 model for saturation flow value. Hence, some important methods for saturation flow estimation
359 both for developed and developing countries are presented in this section.
360
361 Saturation Headway Method
362 Saturation flow can be measured as a number of vehicles passing through a lane during an hour of
363 green. The saturation flow can be estimated using the value of saturation headway. Vehicle’s
364 headway is the time difference of two successive vehicles with respect to some reference point
365 (stop line for signalized intersection). The headway of consecutive vehicles progressively
366 decreases until it tends to a constant interval till the initial queue depart. This constant interval is
367 termed as saturation headway. The headway of the first five vehicles departing from an intersection
368 after the commencement of green are always high due to the driver reaction time. This reaction
369 time is getting minimized with every subsequent vehicle standing in a queue and vehicle’s
370 headway is decreasing gradually until it becomes a constant value as shown in Fig 4. This
371 stabilized headway begins from the 4th or 5th vehicle position when the vehicles have fully
372 accelerated to cross the stop line (Chen et al. 2012).
373 Fig. 4
374 Let Hi denotes the mean headway of the ith vehicle in the queue from the measurements of a few
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375 signal cycles, which is estimated as:

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H ix
376 Hi  x 1
4
C
377 Where Hix is the headway of ith vehicle in the queue measured from the cycle xth and C is the
378 number of signal cycle length is considered.
379 Then, assume H ia is the average headway accumulated from the ith vehicle to the last vehicle in
380 the standing queue.
C q
 H ix
381 H 
i
a x 1 i 1
C q
5
 i
x 1 i 1
382 Where, Hix is the headway of the ith vehicle in the queue measured from the cycle xth and q is the
383 last vehicle in the standing queue.
384 If every vehicles travelling in an equal time of saturation headway (sec) through the intersection,
385 then the number of vehicles that can be accumulated in an hour of green is given by:
3600
386 S 6
hs
387 Where S stands for saturation flow rate (veh/hr) and hs is the saturation headway (sec).
388
389 HCM Methodology
390 As per the HCM (2010), the saturation flow can be defined as the number of vehicles pass through
391 a lane in an hour assuming that the green signal is displayed 100 percent of the time, i.e., g/C is
392 equal to 1.
393 HCM 2010 has provided the basic concept and model for saturation flow estimation:
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394 S  s0 NfW f HV f g f e fbb f a f LU f LT f RT f Lpb f Rpb 7

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395 Where, S is the saturation flow value (veh/hr), s0 means the base saturation flow value (pc/hr/lane),
396 N represents number of lanes, fW, fHV, fg , fe, fbb, fa, fLU, fLT, fRT, fLpb, fRpb are the adjustment factors
397 for lane width, heavy vehicles, approach grade, parking activity, blocking effect of local buses,
398 area type, lane utilization, left turn movement, right turn movement, pedestrian left turn and right
399 turn movement respectively.
400 HCM (2000) has provided a method, along with some default values of essential input
401 parameters for calculating capacity and LOS of a signalized intersections. As per the HCM the
402 saturation flow rate depends on several factors like lane width (Shao et al. 2011), vehicle type (Lila
403 et al. 2013), approach grade (Shao et al. 2011), bus stops (Tuffour et al. 2014), etc. and a default
404 value of 1900 veh/h/ln is provided for the base saturation flow value. Each adjustment factor
405 associated with the saturation flow is described thoroughly along with a specific methodology is
406 given to account for its effect on the saturation flow rate.
407 TRL Method
408 It is a simple method to calculate the saturation flow of controlled intersection. This method based
409 on the simple classified vehicles counts where the flow value can be estimated without estimating
410 the PCU values. Williams and Griffiths (1987) estimated the saturation flow value as the number
411 of vehicles travelling during the saturated green interval. Three saturated green intervals were
412 considered for the analysis purpose and corresponding the saturation flow was calculated by
413 dividing the number of vehicles in the middle interval with the interval duration.
414
415 Regression Method
416 Regression analysis is a soft computing tool used in various area including the capacity estimation
417 of the intersections. The fundamental background of the methodology is the formation of equations
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418 with dependent and independent variables. To estimate the capacity of the controlled intersection
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419 several variables such as vehicles category, signal timing, effective green time, lost time are
420 considered while evaluating. Several influencing parametrs affecting saturation flow are also
421 analyzed using the regression technique worldwide (Minh and Sano 2003; Le et al. 2000; Allen et
422 al. 1998; Milazzo et al. 1998; Rajgor et al. 2016). While Multiple Liner Regression is used
423 extensively to develop saturation flow prediction model using multiple influencing parameters as
424 per the traffic and geometric conditions (Branston and Vanzuylen 1978; Perez-Cartagena and
425 Tarko 2005).
426
427 Additive Conflict Flow Technique
428 The additive conflict flow theory was introduced by Wu (2000) for feasible estimation of gaps of
429 vehicles. The method considers each traffic stream along with each merging points of the streams
430 as a conflict group. The primary traffic flow pattern and its possible conflict points for a T shaped
431 intersection shown in Fig 5 below. For each traffic stream, equations can be framed according to
432 the priority rules and probabilistic approaches. This is a simple methodology used to analyze the
433 capacity of the intersection and also helps to improve the reliability of the condition measurement
434 techniques of the intersections. Li et al. (2011) incorporated the conflict technique to estimate the
435 capacity of a multilane signal controlled intersection. They developed a model for predicting the
436 capacity of the controlled intersection at three different levels such as undersaturated, partially
437 saturated and fully saturated. They verified the effectiveness and reliability of the developed model
438 in comparison with the methodology proposed in HCM (2000) with various lane configuration and
439 traffic demands. Kumar and Surisetty (2016) analyzed the capacity of T intersection using conflict
440 technique. The main objective of their study is to estimate the capacity of the intersection using
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441 conflict technique and compare it with the procedure mentioned in the HCM (2000). The numbers
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442 of observers were provided for data collection based on the number of lanes in the flow channel
443 and the type of information required. Modified Siegloch Model was implemented where capacity
444 equation was modified by assuming the major stream headways as exponentially distributed. Two
445 primary microscopic traffic stream parameters are considered in conflict flow technique. One is
446 the occupation time which is nothing but the time spent by a vehicle for occupying the conflict
447 area, and another one is blocking time of conflict area due to approaching vehicle. The average
448 occupation times use to formulate the capacity equation for individual traffic stream shown in
449 below. The occupancy time can also be calculated from the estimated capacity by dividing the
450 total service time of the intersection with the number of vehicles (in PCU) encountered per hour.
451 Fig. 5
452
453 Gap Acceptance Theory
454 Gap acceptance is a fundamental key parameter in microscopic traffic characteristic. The
455 background of the methodology is mainly the vehicles gap size while crossing the intersection.
456 The basic theory is that drivers will accept the gaps that are larger than the critical gap and reject
457 the gaps smaller than the critical one. Researchers have used several definitions followed by the
458 various methodology to find the critical gap value of vehicles. The gap acceptance theory is
459 basically used in the analysis of uncontrolled intersections though it can be used for controlled
460 intersection also (Gattis and Low 1999; Fitzpatrick 1991; Radwan and Sinha 1980; Solberg and
461 Oppenlander 1966; Sinha and Tomiak 1971) based on the perception of defining the drivers will
462 be able to utilize a gap of particular size or duration. Several methods such as Raff Method
463 (Madanat et al. 1994; Ashalatha and Chandra 2011), Greenshields Method (Amin and Maurya
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464 2015; Gattis and Low 1999; Park et al. 2015; Parameswarana and Asaithambi 2016), HCM
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465 Method, Lag Method (Brilon et al. 1999; Amin and Maurya 2015), Logit Method (Fitzpatrick
466 1991; Radwan and Sinha 1980; Devarasetty et al. 2011), Probit Analysis (Gerlough and Huber
467 1975; Solberg 1964), Maximum Likelihood Method (Troutbeck 1992; Tian et al. 1999; Hagrig
468 2000; Weinert 2000) are widely used to estimate critical gap of vehicles both in controlled and
469 uncontrolled intersection. Various studies reported that the Maximum Likelihood method gives a
470 better result for critical gap estimation for homogeneous traffic stream. Few studies are done for
471 mixed traffic stream where they found values are smaller than the developed countries (Ashalatha
472 and Chandra 2011; Patil and Powar 2014).
473
474
475
476 Simulation Approach
477 Computer simulation technique has become a powerful tool to study the complex system when
478 analytical or empirical approaches cannot adequately and accurately define the response pattern.
479 The application of simulation techniques in evaluating the characteristics of a controlled
480 intersection is used effectively due to its quicker and safer response, though the simulation needs
481 a proper calibration and validation to get a precise result. The simulation models need various
482 input parameters to describe the traffic behavior and its characteristics. In recent years, researchers
483 have suggested several microscopic traffic simulation models such as VISSIM (Kim et al. 2005;
484 Tian et al. 2002), MIXNETSIM (Hossain 2001), CORSIM (Tian et al. 2006), SimTraffic (Tian et
485 al. 2002), AIMSUN (Chaudhry and Ranjitkar 2009), HETEROSIM (Arasan and Koshy 2005) to
486 evaluate the traffic characteristics at controlled intersections. Zhao et al. (2013) proposed a
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487 theoretical model using probability theory to analyse the lane group capacity and impact of
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488 upstream short lane on it at signalized intersections. The capacity model was developed through
489 the combination of three sub-models between the capacity and the queue blockage. The proposed
490 model was validated using VISSIM simulation. Wang and Benekohal (2010) developed a
491 saturation flow model for left turning vehicles using the characteristics of left turning vehicle along
492 with the arrival and departure vahicle types in the opposing traffic. A microscopic simulation
493 CORSIM was incorpotated to develop saturation flow prediction model and also evaluating
494 various capacity related parameters. They perceived that, the number of opposite lanes
495 significantly affect the left-turn saturation flow value which is about 0.97, 0.96, and 0.95 of the
496 through traffic saturation flow when opposed by one, two, and three lanes, respectively. The
497 simulation program was also used to calibrate and validate the saturation flow model using field
498 data. The principle behind the microsimulation technique is to observe specific characteristics of
499 traffic stream and build a computer model synthesizing the behavior of vehicles.
500
501 Summary
502 The literature survey shows that various methodological approaches are framed to develop
503 saturation flow model both for developed and developing countries. Initially, researchers have
504 mostly used the Saturation Headway method to analyse and develop saturation flow model due to
505 the less heterogeneity in the traffic stream. Later on, the suitability of this method is decrementing
506 due to the comprehensive nature of traffic and flow characteristics. Therefore, several
507 methodological approaches were framed by the researchers as per their traffic conditions. The
508 methodology proposed by the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) is extensively used to evaluate
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509 the saturation flow in both homogeneous and heterogeneous traffic conditions. Although, some
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510 modifications are required for the direct implementation of HCM methodology for the mixed
511 traffic stream. Regression approach is found to be one of the useful method proposed in the various
512 literatures to develop the saturation flow model using one or multiple significant factors. The
513 model developed using the regression approach gives the reasonable value of saturation flow. But,
514 the method is simple and less applicable for the non-lane based mixed traffic stream where several
515 traffic and vehicular characteristics need to be incorporated in a single model. Therefore, to analyze
516 saturation flow model mainly for a mixed traffic stream, researchers have framed some suitable
517 methodology such as Queue Clearance Rate method (Mohan and Chandra 2017), Optimization
518 approach (Mondal et al. 2019) and Kriging based approach (Biswas et al. 2018) etc. Also, various
519 simulation approaches were used to develop models for the existing traffic conditions including
520 various traffic and flow characteristics. However, a number of the models are based on the limited
521 field data with various assumptions regarding the traffic and vehicular driving behavior for the
522 existing traffic conditions. Therefore, proper calibration of the models is required to represent such
523 type of traffic stream using real-time traffic data. Hence, an extensive study is necessary to
524 formulate the saturation flow model using several influencing parameters with a proper method
525 for the existing traffic conditions.
526
527 Discussion and Future Directions
528 The primary focus of this study is to critically review the guidelines and previous literature from
529 last few decades to identify the significant aspects related to the performance evaluation of
530 signalized intersection to achieve an optimal operating condition in traffic and pedestrian flow
531 with optimum signal timing under mix traffic condition. It has been perceived that majority of the
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532 guidelines and studies are related to developed nations. The guideline IRC SP 41:1994 on the
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533 design of at grade intersections in rural and urban areas is existing for developing countries for
534 mixed traffic stream. In most of the studies, saturation flow rate is determined based on the field
535 observation while some of them utilized the simple HCM methodology for evaluating the
536 performance of signalized intersection. Many of the studies are considering different influencing
537 factors instead of only assessing the saturation flow rate. Though HCM methodology critically
538 described each factor with its evaluating process, but the proposed methodology is simple and only
539 applicable for developed countries. Shao et al. (2011) and Susilo and Solihin (2011) studied the
540 lane width factor on saturation flow rate with same conclusion that saturation flow rate increases
541 with increase of lane width while Potts et al. (2007) concluded that up to 9m road width the
542 saturation flows were closed to each other’s while width of road approaches become large (>9 m)
543 a substantial difference can be detected between observed and calculated saturation flow values.
544 Other factors like percentage of heavy vehicle (Kockelman and Shabih 2000; Lewis and Benekohal
545 2007) which is inversely proportional to the saturation flow rate and 40 per cent heavy vehicle of
546 the traffic stream, reduce the capacity upto 30 percent which is substantially less than the value
547 recommended by HCM (Yeboah et al. 2014), effect of bus blockage (Tuffour et al. 2014), presence
548 of motorcycles (Minh and Sano 2003; Vien et al. 2008; Lila et al. 2013; Adams et al. 2015;
549 Davoodi et al. 2015), bicycles (Allen et al. 1998), pedestrians (Milazzo et al. 1998), lane approach
550 grade (Shao et al. 2011), on street parking (Cao and Menendez 2015) are critically studied for both
551 developed and developing countries and effectively analysed the signalized intersection leading
552 towards a better approach for the planning and designing of signalized intersection. Various
553 methodological approaches such as saturation headway method, HCM method, TRL method,
554 regression analysis technique, additional conflict flow theory, gap acceptance theory and
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555 simulation approach used by the researchers to estimate the saturation flow value by minimizing
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556 the effect of several influencing factors. In developing countries, due to the presence of mixed
557 traffic stream and a wide range of vehicle characteristics, the suitability of the avobe
558 methodologies is not significant. A very few studies are conducted which incorporates the
559 properties of mix traffic present in developing countries. The present study highlights the several
560 influencing factors that have a major impact on saturation flow value and several methodological
561 approaches to find out the flow value through normalizing the influencing factors which lead to a
562 better way for planning and designing of a signalized intersection. Various studies on evaluation
563 of saturation flow along with the several influencing factors are briefly presented in the current
564 study both for homogeneous and heterogeneous traffic streams. Although, a comprehensive study
565 is still required to assess the effect of various parameters of traffic and vehicular characteristics on
566 saturation flow enlisted in the current study. Some of the aspects which may be taken into account
567 while evaluating saturation flow at signalized intersection are as follows:
568 1. Methodologies developed are basically related to homogeneous traffic condition which are
569 applicable for developed countries. Very few studies are available on heterogeneous traffic
570 stream for developing countries.
571 2. Each model was developed with the help of static characteristics of vehicles while dynamic
572 characteristics of vehicles significantly influence the PCU value and headway
573 characteristics which should be incorporated in further investigations.
574 3. Signal timing is one of the major entity for improving intersection capacity through
575 minimizing conflict point and vehicles delay. Nevertheless, a complex timing creates more
576 conflicts, leading to higher values of delay and less capacity. Hence, optimizing signal
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577 timing for heterogeneous traffic stream will be a challenging task.

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578 4. The impact of driver behaviour should also be investigated accurately, as this influences
579 the saturation flow significantly.
580 5. Start-up lost time is a prime parameter influencing headway and SFR of vehicles at
581 signalized intersection. There is no such investigation or models that can predict the start-
582 up lost time accurately for a signalized intersection.
583 6. Investigation towards incorporation of electric vehicles, driverless vehicles and future
584 vehicles in estimation of several performance measure parameters such as saturation flow,
585 speed, delay, capacity and LOS should be started.
586
587
588
589 Conclusion
590 This paper critically reviews different guidelines and studies on saturation flow value at signalized
591 intersections. Different aspects are highlighted that significantly affect the saturation flow value.
592 From literature studies, some of the aspects that were considered in various studies are also
593 discussed. Various methodological approaches to analyse and formulate saturation flow model
594 appropriate for developed and developing countries are also reviewed. Although, the suitability of
595 particular methodology depends on the traffic conditions and frequency of the traffic data
596 collection (duration). Recently, few studies have utilized some optimization process to eliminate
597 the effect traffic conditions in the estimation of saturation flow. In the last section, the present
598 study highlights some future directions which will help the researchers to estimate and develop
599 saturation flow more accurately.

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600
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877
878
879
880
881
882
883
884
885
886 List of Figure Captions
887 Fig 1. Fundamental aspects of flow at a signalized intersection (HCM 2000)
888 Fig 2. Effect of number of a motorcycle on (a) Saturation flow, (b) Car headway and (c) Start up
889 loss time (Minh and Sano 2003)
890 Fig 3. Reduction in capacity due to presence of LDTs (Kockelman and Shabih 2000)
891 Fig 4. Headways at traffic interruption (HCM 2010)
892 Fig 5. Vehicular movements passing through the conflict area (Li et al. 2011)
893
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Fundamental aspects of flow at a signalized intersection (HCM 2000)
50x53mm (300 x 300 DPI)
Effect of number of a motorcycle on (a) Saturation flow, (b) Car headway and (c) Start up loss time (Minh
and Sano 2003)
95x47mm (300 x 300 DPI)

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Reduction in capacity due to presence of LDTs (Kockelman and Shabih 2000)
72x40mm (300 x 300 DPI)

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aft
Headways at traffic interruption (HCM 2010)
85x45mm (300 x 300 DPI)

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aft
Vehicular movements passing through the conflict area (Li et al. 2011)
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80x50mm (300 x 300 DPI)

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Table 1. Influencing factors considered in guidelines
Guideline
IRC
Influence US Finnish Taiwan
Description SP: IHCM HBS MHCM ARRB
Factors HCM HCM HCM
41- 1993 2015 2006 123
2010 2002 2011
1994
Approach
     -  
width
Roadway Approach
    -   
conditions gradient
Intersection
- - -     -
geometry
Vehicle
  -     
type
Turning
      
vehicle
Pedestrian
Traffic -  -    - 
crossing
conditions
Parking
-  - - -   -
activity
Bus stop -  - - -   
Lane
-  - - - - - 
utilization
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Control Signal time  - - -   - -

and other Weather
- -  - - - - 
conditions condition
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 Means factor considered, - means factor is not considered
Table 2: SFR values proposed by different countries and authors
Sl
Guideline / Authors Country SFR (pcu/hr)
No.
1. Indian Road Congress (IRC SP 41) India 1890
2. US HCM 2010 USA 1900
3. IHCM 1997 Indonesia 600 PCU/m, 2160
4. German HCM (HBS 2015) Germany 2000
5. Finnish Capacity Manual 2002 Finland 1700
6. Taiwan HCM 2011 Taiwan 1679-2129
7. Malaysia Highway Capacity Manual 2006 Malaysia 1930
8. Austroads 1988 Australia 1850
9. Wester and Cobbe (1966) UK 1800
10. Kimber et al. (1986) UK 2080
11. Branston (1979) UK 1778
12. Miler (1968) Australia 1710
13. Highway Engineering Laboratory Athens Greece 1972
(1990)
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14. Huzayying and Shoukry (1986) Egypt 1617

15. Hussain (1990) Malaysia 1945
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16. De Andrade (1998) Brazil 1660

17. Bhattacharya and Bhattacharya (1982) India 1232
18. Arasan and Vedagiri (2006) India 2196
19. Radhakrishna and Mathew (2011) India 1925
20. Shao et al. (2011) China 1800
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Estimation at Signalized Intersections

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Estimation at Signalized Intersections

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Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering

A Review of Methodological Approaches for Saturation Flow

Journal: Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering

Manuscript Type: Review

Date Submitted by the

Headway, Influencing factors, Operational characteristics, Saturation

Is the invited manuscript for

1 A Review of Methodological Approaches for Saturation Flow Estimation at

16 Indian Institute of Technology (Banaras Hindu University) Varanasi

44 Keywords: Headway, Influencing factors, Operational characteristics, Saturation flow rate,

77 flow at a signalized intersection.

108 at signalized junctions.

110 Problem Statement

123 non-lane discipline flow.

127 methodology proposed for the homogeneous traffic stream.

133 incorporated in the model formulation.

135 Assessment of Saturation Flow Studies

143 saturation flow model is mentioned with several adjustment factors.

147 factors that are discussed in the guidelines of different countries.

156 Effect of Roadway Geometry on Saturation Flow

169 approach width in feet.

172 limitations using approach width as:

173 S  129.5  W  103.5

178 S s  490  W  360

189 saturation flow.

190 s  990  288  TL  8.5  SL  26.8  G 1

192 limit (60 or 80 km/hr) and G is the gradient (%).

195 radius using partial least square (PLS) method.

196 S L  815.4  136.2  w  11.3  r 2.7m ≤ w ≤ 4.0m 2

197 20m ≤ r ≤ 48m

214 capacity when the upstream short lane exists.

216 Effect of Traffic Characteristics on Saturation Flow

231 on approach lane.

232 S  1965  105  ( w  3.5)  0.12  mc R2 = 0.79 3

249 passenger cars.

253 Benekohal 2007).

274 taxi at the outlet legs of signalized intersection.

286 the traffic designing.

296 Effect of Control and Other Conditions on Saturation Flow

307 intersection improves by 5 to 10 percentage due to the installation of such signals.

317 operational speed for the rough weather conditions.

337 such mixed traffic stream.

353 Methodological Approaches for Saturation Flow Estimation

361 Saturation Headway Method

372 accelerated to cross the stop line (Chen et al. 2012).

375 signal cycles, which is estimated as:

378 number of signal cycle length is considered.

380 the standing queue.

383 last vehicle in the standing queue.

389 HCM Methodology

394 S  s0 NfW f HV f g f e fbb f a f LU f LT f RT f Lpb f Rpb 7

399 turn movement respectively.

407 TRL Method

415 Regression Method

425 Tarko 2005).

427 Additive Conflict Flow Technique

453 Gap Acceptance Theory

472 and Chandra 2011; Patil and Powar 2014).

476 Simulation Approach

479 The application of simulation techniques in evaluating the characteristics of a controlled

525 for the existing traffic conditions.

527 Discussion and Future Directions

567 while evaluating saturation flow at signalized intersection are as follows:

570 stream for developing countries.