Automation in Construction 135 (2022) 104111

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Automation in Construction
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/autcon

Automated decision making in highway pavement preventive maintenance

based on deep learning
Jiale Li a, b, Guohui Yin a, Xuefei Wang a, b, *, Weixi Yan c
a
School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China
b
Department of Civil Engineering, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH 44106, USA
c
Tianjin Expressway Group Co. LTD., Tianjin 300384, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Decision-making in highway preventive maintenance (PM) is generally costly and complicated. An inappropriate
Highway maintenance maintenance strategy could yield a low efficiency of budget usage and untreated road distress. This study de­
Artificial neural network (ANN) scribes an innovative predictive maintenance strategy that provides direct maintenance guidance to specific
Preventive maintenance (PM)
highway mileposts. This was achieved with the application of the artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm to
Decision making
mine a maintenance database. Ten-year distress measurement data at 100-m intervals, traffic load data, climatic
history, and maintenance records of a chosen highway were regarded as the input data of the ANN model. A data
quality control method was proposed to ensure asphalt pavement performance improvement continuity over
time based on the idea of the maintenance year as the starting point for prediction. The backpropagation neural
network (BPNN) model and a hybrid neural network (HNN) were applied to predict five indexes of the highway
asphalt pavement performance, and the genetic algorithm (GA) was employed to optimize the hyperparameters
of these models. The results indicate that the GA enhanced HNN model could increase the accuracy by 35% on
average compared with traditional ANN in predicting the highway asphalt distress performance. Furthermore, a
notable agreement is attained when comparing the predicted indexes to the whole-year measurement data
invalidation with average coefficient of determination (R2) reaches 0.74. This study demonstrates the potential of
an innovative ANN method in highway distress prediction to provide direct guidance for long-term highway
asphalt pavement optimal rehabilitation and maintenance (R&M) decisions.

1. Introduction potholes, rutting, patching, depressions, distortions, disintegration,

The total highway distance in China reached approximately 161
thousand kilometers by the end of 2020, and China has become the
country with the longest total mileage distance worldwide according to
the Ministry of Transportation of China. Most highways built in China
exhibit a design life ranging from 15 to 20 years, but due to overloading
and improper maintenance, certain sections require major maintenance
after only 5–10 years of use or even less. In other words, highway
maintenance, especially road surface maintenance, has become one of
the most important problems in highway engineering and has surged in
China and other nations [1]. With limited funds and an aging highway
infrastructure network, agency decision-makers are tasked with making
the most cost-effective decisions in highway pavement maintenance [2]
to better support the service quality and increase driving safety [3]. The
main distress phenomena in asphalt pavement include cracking,
polished aggregates, bleeding, and flushing. To prevent the above
distress phenomena, an effective maintenance strategy can increase the
life span of components, thereby reducing the number of failure events
and resource waste through unnecessary repairs [4]. Previously, the
pavement performance model was essential in regard to several
important agent activities, including maintenance programming and
scheduling [5]. However, between the two major methods for pavement
performance investigation, the cost of monitoring equipment is very
high, and the visual assessment capacity of road inspectors is highly
subjective [6]. Advanced technology based on multi-dimensional data
has gradually become the protagonist of the highway industry [7]. The
long-term pavement performance (LTPP) research project conducted in
the United States considers the influence of various factors such as the
road structure, traffic conditions, climate environment, material char­
acteristics, construction quality, and maintenance level on the pavement

* Corresponding author at: School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China.
E-mail address: xxw165@case.edu (X. Wang).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2021.104111
Received 2 September 2021; Received in revised form 18 November 2021; Accepted 22 December 2021
Available online 31 December 2021
0926-5805/© 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
J. Li et al.
performance. Many researchers have conducted in-depth studies based
on the LTPP database and actively applied new maintenance strategies
in practice to prolong the service life of pavement [8–12]. Therefore,
accurate and efficient prediction of the pavement performance facili­
tates the improvement of the road maintenance quality and enhance­
ment of highway pavement management systems.
The formulation of highway maintenance planning is mainly based
on the current performance of the target section of highway, traffic
conditions, road connectivity [13], and financial budget [14]. The
maintenance type can be divided into corrective maintenance and pre­
ventive maintenance in general. Corrective maintenance is the most
commonly used maintenance strategy, which means maintaining the
road for recovery to good performance after serious damage [15]. In
contrary, preventive maintenance means making minor maintenance
methods before the road is seriously damaged, which means performing
timely maintenance when the pavement performance reaches a slightly
low level. This means the pavement is maintained at an acceptable
service level [16]. Fig. 1 shows the decay curve of pavement perfor­
mance between different maintenance strategies [17]. The black curve
means that the pavement will continue to deteriorate over time under
the traffic load and environmental effects. The benefit of corrective
maintenance is area A, and the benefit of preventive maintenance has
additional area B. Compared with corrective maintenance, less con­
struction cost is needed to improve the same pavement performance
with the preventive maintenance strategy [18]. At the same time, if
appropriate maintenance methods are taken to reduce the deterioration
ratio of the performance decay curve, more benefits can be obtained as
C. Furthermore, as the road age increases, the maintenance cost to
achieve the same maintenance effect will increase [19], so preventive
maintenance is also a more economical way to restore pavement per­
formance. However, pavement performance degradation is affected by
many factors, such as traffic conditions, environmental characteristics,
and maintenance history [20]. Therefore, establishing an accurate
model for predicting pavement performance is the first and most
important step in preventive maintenance [21].
2. Related works
Road performance prediction models are mainly divided into
deterministic and probabilistic prediction models. Among these models,
deterministic models are largely divided into mechanistic models,
empirical models, and mechanistic-empirical models [22]. Chen et al.
[12] determined the average stress state of the foundation layer based
on mechanical equations. They incorporated the influence of the load
distribution into the model, proposed a new mechanical-empirical fault
model, and performed statistical calibration of the model parameters.
Fig. 1. Influence of preventive maintenance and corrective maintenance on pavement performance
2
Automation in Construction 135 (2022) 104111
Hasan et al. [23] evaluated the accuracy of the original model based on
experimental analysis of the primary input (namely, the most essential
factor influencing the performance of the road surface). The empirical
prediction model is the statistical interpretation of observation data
[24]. Heriberto et al. [25] developed two types of regression equations
based on different road conditions to facilitate the accurate prediction of
the road anti-skid performance without a working history. After data
clustering, Piryonesi et al. [26] fit a linear regression equation between
the international roughness index (IRI) and the pavement condition
index (PCI) and found that the regression equation was notably different
based on the function level and location. According to regression sta­
tistics, Yang et al. [27] demonstrated that five major climate variables,
namely, the percentage of sunlight, temperature, wind speed, relative
humidity, and precipitation, imposed a significant impact on-road per­
formance. The mechanistic-empirical model guides the selection of
relevant parameters of the mechanistic model to implement corrections
according to the rules of statistics. Dong et al. [28] combined internal
and external factors, established a multifactor model and performed an
impact analysis based on structural equation modeling (SEM). Bayesian
and Markov probability prediction models are the main components of
probability models. Khaled et al. [29] proposed a discrete-time Markov
model based on back-calculation to reduce the model cost in achieving
the set prediction goal. Khawaga et al. [30] developed Markov and S-
curve models to predict the IRI. Their results showed that the Markov
model performed better than did the S-curve model in terms of
comprehensive factor consideration.
In recent years, artificial intelligence methods have been widely
applied in road performance prediction due to their strong nonlinear
fitting ability, lack of complicated theoretical derivation, and real-time
prediction capacity [31]. As such, machine learning exhibits the
advantage of rapid prediction and applies to small-data volume pre­
diction. In addition, due to its generalized linear fitting method, the
machine learning model explores the relative importance of feature
variables to road performance [9]. Moreover, deep reinforcement
learning (DML) has been proven to better learn strategies to improve the
effectiveness of long-term maintenance costs [17]. Marcelino et al. [32]
developed a general machine learning algorithm based on the random
forest algorithm. This algorithm was employed to address the contin­
uous prediction problem over time and the sensitivity analysis problem
of the IRI. Different application scenarios, machine learning methods,
and artificial neural networks (ANNs) yield different advantages [33].
Faced with large-scale data, artificial neural networks exhibit a great
potential for optimization. When a database provides a stable data
source, the ANN predicts the IRI better than does linear regression [34].
In road performance evaluation, the backpropagation neural network
(BPNN) effectively solves the problems of insufficient and inaccurate
J. Li et al.
data [35]. Beltrán et al. [36] designed a three-stage method to design an
ANN model and then verified its effect, demonstrating that its predictive
ability and predictive efficiency satisfy the identification requirements
of complex road parameters. By comparing prediction results obtained
with the group method of data handling (GMDH) and ANN, Ziari et al.
[37] found that the ANN yields advantages in both short- and long-term
predictions. Chopra et al. [38] applied the genetic programming model
to predict the deterioration in pavement distress, including cracking
progression, raveling progression, pothole progression, rutting pro­
gression, and roughness progression.
The key to artificial intelligence algorithms in achieving the purpose
of prediction involves not only the data size and quality but also the
various model attributes. Generally, the optimization model method is
employed to increase the upper limit of the fitting ability of the model.
ANNs are classified according to the configuration of unit connections
and the assignment of weight values. Different types of ANNs exhibit
independent characteristics [39]. Therefore, the main optimization di­
rections mainly include three aspects: the structure of the model, the
model training mode, and the hyperparameters of the model. Updating
the model structure may facilitate adaptation to richer scenarios and
enhance the generalization ability of the model. Wang et al. [40] pro­
posed a hybrid model (GRA-SVR) consisting of gray relational analysis
and a support vector machine. By comparing pure models comprising
the gray model and artificial neural network model, the hybrid model
attains a higher accuracy and operability. Mazari et al. [11] adopted
genetic programming instead of the traditional ANN gradient descent
training method. This method treats a computer program as an indi­
vidual to develop a gene expression programming model (GEP-ANN).
Attoh-Okin et al. [41] combined and optimized the theory with the
neural network structure in engineering practice, which yielded
considerable gains over traditional methods. Zhang et al. [42] created
gradient tree boosting models for performance prediction and mini­
mized the model loss via the addition of weak learners during the
gradient descent process. Zhao et al. [43] applied the thresholds and
weights between the network layers of the ANN as chromosomes and
performed repeated iterations of the genetic algorithm. This method
replaces the reverse error transmission process of the BPNN model, and
its feasibility was verified in predicting the viscosity of asphalt pavement
adhesives. Optimization of the training model of the artificial intelli­
gence algorithm may reduce the cost of model self-learning and improve
the efficiency of model convergence. Jin et al. [44] adopted a genetic
algorithm to optimize the training process of the BPNN model to prevent
it from reaching a local minimum. It was demonstrated that this
approach is better than the BPNN model in the calculation of the
network line loss rate. The hyperparameters may impact the quality and
generalization ability of the model [32]. The simplest method of
hyperparameter optimization is the experimental fine-tuning method.
This approach quickly determines relatively excellent hyperparameter
combinations [45,46]. Bergstra and Bengio [47] used the weighted
random search (WRS) method to optimize the hyperparameters of
convolutional neural networks. Bianchini et al. [48] employed IF-THEN
fuzzy rules to optimize network hyperparameters. The thusly obtained
neural network model realized a good generalization ability.
The above investigation yields the following conclusions: over time,
deep learning algorithms have been increasingly applied in the predic­
tion of the asphalt pavement distress performance due to their strong
learning and generalization abilities. However, the accuracy of the
output values in most pavement performance predictions encompassed
the entire road section or 1 km. The model results were impressive but
yielded a limited value in practical applications. Decision makers cannot
accurately make pre-maintenance decisions from lack of specific loca­
tion of the disease [49], and cannot get rid of subjective experience
when actually formulating a construction plan. Generally, intercepting
parallel data as verification set data were employed to verify the
generalization ability and accuracy of a given model, and no multidi­
mensional data verification occurred at other levels. In contrast, most
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Automation in Construction 135 (2022) 104111
researchers simply removed noisy data instead of meticulous processing
and did not consider the impact of maintenance on their data. Moreover,
in road performance prediction, model hyperparameters were generally
not deeply explored, without any extensive mining of the model
potential.
This paper developed a hybrid neural network that combined the
BPNN model and the long short-term memory (LSTM) model to predict
the highway pavement performance with a high precision of 100 m. For
the first time, the restart point method was developed for data cleaning,
and the impact of maintenance on data was fully considered. The genetic
algorithm (GA) was first proposed to optimize the hyperparameters of
the model to improve the prediction accuracy. Via a comparison to the
BPNN model, the final model was evaluated in four aspects, namely,
model stability, model accuracy, model volatility, and model practica­
bility, to demonstrate the model validity in multiple dimensions. Most
prediction models in the previous studies were built based on part of the
known data and the rest for validation of the same period. Some other
studies try to predict an average performance index for a whole section
of the highway which is difficult for the maintenance department to
make a specific maintenance plan. In practice, the maintenance
department would like to know the pavement performance index
correlated to the milepost of the next year. This could help the main­
tenance department to make preventive maintenance plans. This study
for the first time presents an actual application case using 2010 to 2018
data to simulate the model and the whole-year data in 100 m intervals of
2019 to verify the pavement prediction accuracy. Finally, practical
suggestions were summarized for asphalt pavement distress perfor­
mance prediction and preventive maintenance.
3. Data preparation
The test data in this research are derived from one part of the No.
G18 national highway of China, which covers 45.4 km, with three lanes
along with both directions. The highway is 34.5 m wide, and the
thickness of the pavement is 72 cm with a design deflection of 18.9 mm.
This highway pavement is flexible [50] whose structure layer is ar­
ranged from top to bottom as follows: 4 cm fine-grained modified
asphalt concrete (AC-13C), 6 cm medium-grained modified asphalt
concrete (AC-20C), 8 cm coarse-grained asphalt concrete (AC-25C), 18
cm cement stabilized macadam, 18 cm cement stabilized macadam, 18
cm lime fly ash soil. The highway was opened on September 30, 2008,
and has been in operation for more than 12 years.
3.1. Performance indicators
The five asphalt pavement performance parameters considered in
this study are listed in Table 1 based on the Highway Performance
Assessment Standards of China [51].
PCI, RQI, RDI, and SRI indicate the degree of pavement damage,
Table 1
Summary of pavement performance indexes.
Name of index Abbreviation Measurement Description
index
Pavement Comprehensive pavement
PQI DR,IRI,RD,SFC
quality index performance
Pavement
condition PCI DR Degree of road damage
index
Riding quality
RQI IRI Road surface roughness
index
Rutting depth
RDI RD The depth of rutting
index
Skidding
Anti-skid degree of road
resistance SRI SFC
surface
index
J. Li et al. Automation in Construction 135 (2022) 104111

pavement roughness, rutting depth, and pavement anti-skidding ability, surface conditions, pavement rutting, and pavement roughness. The
respectively. The road damage rate (DR), international roughness index vehicle number was 3-LKJCC-02. The lateral force coefficient detection
(IRI), rutting depth (RD), and skidding resistance index (SRI), respec­ vehicle was used to detect the skidding resistance performance of the
tively, are measurement indexes corresponding to the four variables pavement. The vehicle number was 3-HXLXS-02. The multifunctional
above. Specific PCI, RQI, RDI, and SRI values are mapped at intervals road inspection vehicle captures road images per lane at a speed of
from 0 to 100, where 100 represents the best condition of pavement 60–80 km/h, with a lateral detection width of 3.8 m to cover the entire
performance. The pavement condition can be generally divided into five lane. The vehicle takes the data at 4000 points/section in a 1 mm in­
categories including excellent, good, average, bad, and poor which the terval to identify pavement cracks over 1 mm. The types and areas of
threshold are 90, 80, 70, and 60, respectively. Derived from the road damage in the collected images were then counted via a human-
weighted calculation of the single index mentioned above, PQI indicates computer interaction. Finally, the damaged part was matched with the
the general performance of the road surface. Corresponding methods of specific location of the expressway, and the road damage rate (DR) of
computation are expressed as Eqs. (1)–(6). The following formulas and each assessment interval was calculated based on Eq. (1). The road
the setting of parameter values are derived from the Standards JTG H20- surface international roughness index (IRI) and rutting depth (RD) can
2007 [52]. also be acquired in real-time during the detection process by a multi­
i0
functional road inspection vehicle. The sampling interval was 10 cm and
∑
wi Ai the IRI was calculated every 100 m for a road surface smoothness esti­
DR = 100 × i=1 (1) mation. The rutting depth was measured with horizontal and longitu­
A dinal intervals set at 4 m and 5 m, respectively. The lateral force
PCI = 100 − a0 DRa1 (2) coefficient detection vehicle was used for road surface lateral force co­
efficient collection. The test speed of the vehicle ranged from 46 km/h to
100 54 km /h to continuously detect the lateral force coefficient (SFC) of the
RQI = (3) road surface.
1 + a2 ea3 IRI
Highway traffic data and passenger-to-freight ratio data originate
⎧
⎨ 100 − a4 RD (RD ≤ RDa ) from historical highway data, and temperature data are provided by the
RDI = 60 − a5 (RD − RDa ) (RDa < RD ≤ RDb ) (4) weather station, including the monthly minimum average temperature,
⎩
0 (RD > RDb ) monthly maximum average temperature, monthly minimum extreme
temperature, and maximum monthly extreme temperature. The tem­
SRI =
100 − SRI min
+ SRI min (5) perature data are processed according to Eqs. (7–8):
1 + a6 ea7 SFC ( ) ( )
tm = α tamin + tamax + β temin + temax (7)
PQI = wPCI PCI + wRQI RQI + wRDI RDI + wSRI SRI (6)
1 ∑ 12

where i0is the total number of damage types including different damage ty = tmi (8)
12 i=1
levels (light, medium, and heavy in general), Ai is the pavement area of
type i damage, A is the surveyed road area (the product of survey length where tm is the monthly average temperature, tamin and tamax are the
and effective road width), wi is the weight of type i damage based on the minimum and maximum monthly average temperatures, respectively,
Table 2, a0, a1, a2, a3, a4, a5, a6, a7, RDa, RDb, SRImin, wPCI, wRQI, wRDI and temin and temax are the minimum and maximum monthly extreme tem­
wSRI are model parameters, set to 15, 0.412, 0.026, 0.65, 2, 4, 28.6, peratures, respectively,ty is the annual temperature and α β are weighted
− 0.105, 20 mm, 35 mm, 0.35, 0.4, 0.15 and 0.1, respectively. coefficients, set to 0.2 and 0.3, respectively. The value of above pa­
rameters is based on the different effects of extreme temperature and the
3.2. Data collection average temperature on the performance [53], and is obtained by
empirical statistics.
Fig. 2 shows the pavement performance detection equipment. A Moreover, maintenance records of the highway are also collected.
multifunctional road inspection vehicle was used to detect pavement The types of maintenance include overall reinforcement, overlay (single-
and double-layer overlays), excavation (single- and double-layer exca­
Table 2 vation), thermal regeneration, micro-surfacing, and roadbed grouting.
Details of hyperparameter types and encoding. The maintenance data are counted by the milepost distance of different
Type Damaged name Level of damage wi Unit of measurement lanes for each year.
1 Light 0.6
2 Crack Medium 0.8 Area (m2) 4. Deep learning model development
3 Heavy 1.0
4 Light 0.6
Block cracks Area (m2) 4.1. Model structure
5 Heavy 0.8
6 Light 0.6 Length (m)
Longitudinal crack
7 Heavy 1.0 Influence width:0.2 m In this study, the artificial neural network (ANN) is used to predict
8
Transverse crack
Light 0.6 Length (m) pavement performance. An ANN is composed of a large number of
9 Heavy 1.0 Influence width:0.2 m neurons, and these neurons are connected, continuously passing down
10 Light 0.8 Area (m2)
11
Hollow
Heavy 1.0
information to neurons in the next layer to achieve the purpose of data
12 Light 0.6 transmission. An ANN generally encompasses an input layer, an output
Raveling Area (m2)
13 Heavy 1.0 layer, and a hidden layer. The structure is shown in Fig. 3.
14
Sinking
Light 0.6
Area (m2) With the use of historical data encompassing diverse variables as the
15 Heavy 1.0
input layer and the output layer, the relationship between two groups of
16 Light 0.6 Length (m)
17
Rutting
Heavy 1.0 Influence width:0.4 m variables is disclosed and then employed to predict output variables
18 Light 0.6 upon the provision of input variables as another set of data. As shown in
Wave packs Area (m2)
19 Heavy 1.0 Fig. 3(a), the input layer selects those variables related to the output
20 Bleeding / 0.2 Area (m2) variables, and the neurons in the hidden layer are aimed at data calcu­
21 Surface patching / 0.1 Area (m2)
lation and transmission, followed by the output layer displaying the

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J. Li et al. Automation in Construction 135 (2022) 104111

Fig. 2. Satellite images of G18 national highway and the corresponding testing facility.

Fig. 3. Artificial neural network topology: (a) Typical structure of an ANN, (b) typical structure of an ANN unit.

predicted output variables. The topological structure of the intermediate propagated among the neurons in each layer, during which the weight or
neurons is shown in Fig. 3(b), which accepts information from neurons bias matrix of neurons is randomly presupposed. When the resultant
in the last layer [10], calculates weighted values with a weight matrix, output is obtained, the error between the predicted and real values is
and then provides these values as output through the activation function calculated with the loss function. Then, with error backpropagation, the
[54]. The equation is expressed as: weight and bias matrices of neurons are subsequently updated toward
( →) (∑ ) error reduction, resulting in gradual error gradient lowering.
hw,b (→
x)=f → w → (9)
T
x + b =f (wi xi + bi ) Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are broadly implemented in time-
related longitudinal prediction for their advantage of recalling prior
where h denotes neuron transmission, → x denotes the matrix transmitted outputs and considering them as inputs of the next prediction [57].
by the neurons in the last layer, →
→
w is the weighted matrix of neurons, b However, during prediction based on data covering a long period, due to
is the bias matrix of neurons, and f(x) is the activation function of their limited memory storage and memory length, gradient explosion
neurons. and gradient vanishment could occur [58]. To solve the problems
The backpropagation neural network (BPNN) is a multilayer feed­ mentioned above, long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks, as
forward neural network with reverse error transmission to achieve loss an improved artificial neural network, were developed, and they
reduction during the training process. Due to its notable nonlinear perform much better in time-related longitudinal prediction [59]. Dur­
fitting ability and simple implementation, it has been widely applied in ing each prediction process based on patch-size data, a neuron, also
various application scenarios [55]. As long as sufficient and complete referred to as a cell, emerges in the LSTM model. Each cell receives
training samples are available, the network accomplishes nonlinear status information of all the previous cells and the output of the last cell,
mapping from the input layer to the output layer [56]. One iteration of and the output and status information of the present cell is obtained
the BP neural network includes two steps. First, the signal is forward once the present input is finished [60]. During this period, the weight of

5
J. Li et al.
all received information is continuously regulated to ensure data gain
over time. This also avoids backpropagation failure with oversized in­
formation or completion loss in the presence of too little information.
In this study, a hybrid neural network (HNN) is introduced for model
building. In the structure of this hybrid neural network, the LSTM neural
unit is adopted as the input layer to receive data information about the
input variables. After the received information is processed and
memorized via the method mentioned above through the LSTM cell, it is
passed to the BP neural unit for a further nonlinear fitting. When back-
propagating the error, the network presents target values continuously
and longitudinally regarding historical predicted data. The topological
structure of the HNN model is shown in Fig. 4.
The condition line (C line) represents the state flow among cells.
Each cell obtains state information on all the previous cells along the C
line, and the ego state of each cell is uploaded to the C line to ensure
state exchange, sharing, and storage after each calculation. Next, the
output of the LSTM cell is transmitted to the BP neuron for further data
fitting. Data are transmitted through multiple layers of neurons and
passed to the output layer to obtain the fitted value. Moreover, the loss
function calculates the error between the fitted and true values:
E = F(|yi − ̂
y i |) (10)
where E is the error in the iterations, F is the loss function, yi is the
output fitting value, and ̂y i is the output true value.
Then, according to the negative gradient direction of the error, the
partial derivative is determined and then multiplied by the learning rate
to acquire the adjustment values of the weight and bias. It should be
noted that the weights and biases here include those within the LSTM
cells, within the BP neurons, and between these two cells. According to
the direction of gradient descent, all parameters in the LSTM cell
structure and BP neurons are updated at the same time. This iterative
process is continued until the stopping condition is reached. The HNN
model inherits the notable fitting ability of the BPNN model and ensures
the memory ability through the LSTM cells when processing time-
related issues.
4.2. Input and output variables
Deterioration of pavement performance is the combined effect of
environmental factors and traffic conditions. In this continuous predic­
tion, variables including PCI, PQI, RQI, RDI, and SRI of the target year
were selected as the output variables, and two algorithms based on the
BPNN and HNN models were implemented. It is worth mentioning that
although PQI can be calculated by PCI, RQI, RDI and SRI, PCI represents
the comprehensive performance of expressways and can be used as an
independent model to improve the prediction system. Historical
research has confirmed that traffic conditions, climatic characteristics,
Fig. 4. Topological structure of HNN model.
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Automation in Construction 135 (2022) 104111
and maintenance history exhibit a close relationship with pavement
performance [61–63]. Therefore, the temperature, age, traffic load,
passenger-to-freight ratio, and the corresponding performance of the
road in historical years were selected as the input variables. In a pre­
vious study, the annual average daily traffic (AADT) and road age were
considered the key factors influencing road performance. In particular,
the road age was a variable of statistical significance [64]. Hence, the
pace of road destruction is associated with the road age, which is also
involved in the analysis as one input variable. Starting from a road age of
0 in the first data year, the road age increases by 1 every year. The use of
historical data to predict the pavement performance in time steps could
play a key role in the pavement management system (PMS) network-
level maintenance plans [65]. Similarly, the forecasting model in this
paper accomplishes continuous forecasting based on time series, i.e.,
historical input and output variables are employed to predict the current
output variables with the step length set to two years. The structure of
the prediction is shown below.
P(t) = f [P(t − 2) , C(t − 2) ,P(t − 1) ,C(t − 1) ] (11)
where P is the usability performance, C denotes the other feature values,
including the temperature, road age, traffic, and passenger-to-freight
ratio, and t is the year of prediction.
To avoid the overfitting phenomenon, the mixed layer of the model
was set to one layer, and the remaining hidden layers generally do not
exceed three layers [66]. The model layer number fluctuation range is
too small. Because the linkage with other parameters is weak, the setting
of the network layer number in the model was determined via trial and
error. The HNN model structure was defined as a mixed layer in which
the hybrid neuron collects historical information for the input layer and
two hidden layers. The BPNN model was established similarly to
determine the better model via comparative analysis. The RELU function
was selected as the activation function of all hidden layers to realize
nonlinear fitting, and the LINEAR function was selected as the activation
function of the output layer, with the ADAM optimizer. The remaining
model hyperparameters are all optimized in the following section, and
an advanced Python module, namely, Keras, was employed to ensure the
model ability. The specific topological structure of the model is shown in
Fig. 5.
4.3. Data preprocessing
Data covering 10 years from 2010 to 2019 of the Rongcheng-Wuhai
highway, also known as No. G18 national highway were used for model
Fig. 5. Refined structure of HNN and BPNN models
J. Li et al. Automation in Construction 135 (2022) 104111

construction. Previous research has demonstrated that there exists no stage, where the model is self-learning and self-supervised. The second
consistent trend in the statistical performance of models between the stage is the testing stage, and new data are employed to test the pre­
different states of the United States [5]. Therefore, it has been suggested dictive ability of the model [36]. According to the above situation, the
that when developing road performance models, it is necessary to data were divided into a training set, testing set, and validation set ac­
simulate based on differences in the data sources. Since there are dif­ cording to the ratio of 7:2:1. The training set data to train the neural
ferences in the positions of the various lanes, including the lateral dis­ network and update the weight coefficients, and the validation set is
tribution of traffic and speed of the interval, modeling is performed applied to optimize the network hyperparameters, while the testing set
separately for each lane. Under continuous prediction, the data should data are employed to test the optimized final network. Moreover, iter­
be processed as time series, i.e., feature and target values should be ative error comparison to the training set is implemented to evaluate the
distributed longitudinally according to the milepost position and time. network performance and generalization ability. The data contained in
Data at milepost connections among the longitudinal data were elimi­ the testing and training sets originate from different mileposts, which
nated because of the lack of a relationship between the road sections and improves the generalization ability of the model.
diverse mileposts. Given the continuity of time series prediction of the
destruction index, annual road maintenance disrupts this continuity. To
4.4. Hyperparameter optimization of the model
ensure the smooth progress of continuous prediction, it is necessary to
consider maintenance data in the data processing. This study adopts the
The hyperparameters of the model are the parameters that must be
data processing method of the maintenance starting point, i.e., the
manually set before model training and cannot be automatically
yearly data corresponding to all the maintenance stations are not
generated from data or during the training process. These parameters
applied as either target values or intermediate variables for continuous
affect many aspects of the model behavior and reflect the advanced
prediction. Since the pavement performance corresponding to the
properties of the model [32,67]. Therefore, the hyperparameters must
maintenance year is measured thereafter, the maintenance data of the
be optimized through the testing set data. The hyperparameters of deep
current year are adopted as the starting point of the next round of
learning models have different effects on model performance, and there
continuous prediction. The processed data encompassed 35,580 groups.
is a competitive relationship between them [68]. Table 3 shows the
The process of the restart point method is shown in Fig. 6.
parameters that have a significant influence on the accuracy of the
In maintenance practice, the maintenance department needs to know
prediction model. The cost of model optimization depends on the
the pavement performance in advance to make specific preventive
complexity of the model [69]; thus, the methods of hyperparameter
maintenance plans. In this study, all five pavement performance indexes
optimization correlated with the structure of the model. The number of
are predicted in 100 m intervals for the specific milepost one year ahead.
hyperparameters to be optimized in this study is large, and the value
To verify the practical value of the model, data of 2019 were first
range of those hyperparameters is wide.
extracted. Then, data retrieved from 2017 and 2018 were input into the
The random search optimization method represented by traditional
network for model construction aimed at target value prediction in
network search will cause a low optimization efficiency. In contrary, the
2019, and the predicted and real values were compared to evaluate the
metaheuristic algorithm can find a suitable optimization direction in the
predictive ability of the model during practical use. This case verifica­
field of large-space optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm was
tion is denoted as year verification in this study. The development of a
employed to optimize the hyperparameters of the neural network thus,
deep learning model includes two stages. The first stage is the training
which was applied to the hybrid neural network, which has rarely been

Fig. 6. Schematic of data arrangement and removal method

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J. Li et al. Automation in Construction 135 (2022) 104111

Table 3 algorithm are shown in Fig. 7.

Details of hyperparameter types and encoding. Structure determination and data processing of the HNN model are
Name of hyperparameter Code Type Range Interval described in Sections 4.1 and 4.2, respectively. The basic parameter
settings of the genetic algorithm are listed in Table 4.
Number of hybrid neurons Lu Continuous 4–100 1
Number of neurons in the second Su Continuous 4–100 1 The population inheritance rate retains the proportion of optimal
hidden layer individuals in the previous generation population before evolving into
Number of neurons in the third Tu Continuous 4–100 1 the next population, thus simultaneously ensuring that the number of
hidden layer individuals in the population remains unchanged during the evolution of
Contain a dropout layer or not Dl Category Yes/not 1
Drop probability if there has a Pl Floating 0–0.5 0.05
the genetic algorithm. The main part of the optimization is initiated.
dropout point First, the population is initialized, and the genes of each individual
Epoch En Continuous 30–1000 20 comprise a set of hyperparameters representing a specific network. The
Distribution of regularization Ro Category 1–4 1 fitness of each individual in the population is calculated with the fitness
options
function. Here, the sum of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
obtained by inputting the training and validation sets into the model is
implemented in the asphalt performance prediction field. applied as the outcome of the fitness function of the genetic algorithm.
To avoid overfitting, the weights and biases were discarded ac­ The function is expressed in Eq. (12). The termination condition is set
cording to the discarding probability, with the dropout layer repre­ based on whether the maximum population number is reached.
senting the discarding layer [70]. An epoch is the amount of data 100 ∑ n ⃒ ⃒
⃒̂y i − yi ⃒
processed at one time. The distribution of regularization options reflects MAPE = ⃒ ⃒ (12)
n i=1 ⃒ yi ⃒
the distribution of the regularization options of the hidden layer. In­
tegers were applied to represent the following types of regularization
where n is the number of data points in the testing set, yi is the single true
options: the no-regularization option was labeled as 1; only the first
value of the testing set, and ̂
y i is the single predicted value of the testing
hidden layer contains regularization options labeled as 2; only the sec­
set.
ond and third layers contain regularization options labeled as 3; and all
The selection operations of genetic algorithms generally include the
hidden layers contain regularization options labeled as 4. According to
following: roulette-wheel selection, tournament selection, and linear or
the calibrated hyperparameters, the individual chromosomes of the
exponential ranking selection. A roulette wheel was arranged to select
genetic algorithm were coded according to floating-point numbers, i.e.,
the parent individuals. The crossover method of the genetic algorithm
they were expressed as a real number within a certain range of the in­
relied on the two-point crossover approach. Chromosome segments
dividual gene, and the length of the code equaled the length of the de­
were randomly exchanged. A random mutation model was introduced as
cision variable. Considering the legality, feasibility, and uniqueness of
the mutation of this optimization, i.e., each position of the gene attained
chromosome coding [71], the continuous variables were converted into
an equal frequency of alteration. The entire optimization process of the
integer categorical variables.
genetic algorithm depended on Python programming, with Para Cloud
The above three procedures during the realization of the genetic
Supercomputing-CPU hardware. Details of the genetic algorithm are
shown in Fig. 8.

5. Results and discussion

5.1. Model stability analysis

The best hyperparameters of the model were obtained after the

deployment of a genetic algorithm for optimization purposes. The
optimal hyperparameters obtained by genetic algorithms are shown in
Table 5. The average fitness of the population dictated a descending
trend with increasing iteration time during the optimization process, as
shown in Fig. 9.
Except for SRI prediction of the second lane and RQI prediction of the
third lane, during which small fluctuations in the fitness value occurred
when the iteration process neared completion, the other optimization
processes stably converged. The average iterations reached 15 genera­
tions. It was calculated that compared to the average fitness value of the
first generation, the average fitness value of the last generation
increased by 26.89%. As such, the RQI model of the second lane attained
the largest increase of 49.27%. Regarding the observed fluctuations
when the iteration process neared completion, the reason could be the
limited population size setting. When mutated individuals with a very
poor performance occur in the population, the average fitness value of
the current generation decreases considerably. Regarding the small

Table 4
Genetic algorithm parameter table.
Parameter Number of The maximum Population Mutation
populations number of inheritance rate rate
iterations

Size 30 50 0.25 0.05

Fig. 7. HNN optimization flowchart.

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J. Li et al. Automation in Construction 135 (2022) 104111

Fig. 8. The flow chart of genetic algorithm.

potential.
Table 5
The obtained hyperparameters were entered as input to obtain the
Hyper-parameter table of optimal individual.
optimal model after optimization, and the testing set data was then input
Lu Su Tu Dl Pl En Ro into the optimal model, followed by model estimation and loss iteration
Frist lane PQI 66 44 72 1 0.15 70 1 graph plotting to observe the model stability, as shown in Fig. 10. Mean
Frist lane PCI 54 91 12 0 / 90 1 absolute error (MAE) was selected as the loss function, and the
Frist lane RQI 13 74 63 0 / 310 1 computation method is expressed in Eq. (13):
Frist lane RDI 47 81 46 0 / 70 1
Frist lane SRI 22 86 70 1 0.05 30 1 1∑ n
Second lane PQI 68 72 54 1 0.2 990 2 MAE = |(yi − ̂y i )| (13)
Second lane PCI 52 69 32 1 0.05 30 1
n i=1
Second lane RQI 13 13 52 0 / 50 1
Second lane RDI 86 14 53 0 / 510 1 where n denotes the number of data, yi is the single true value, and ̂y i is
Second lane SRI 34 84 50 1 0.25 50 2 the single predicted value.
Third lane PQI 72 44 40 0 / 30 1
Third lane PCI 91 50 68 0 / 50 1
The results indicate that the training process of the HNN and BPNN
Third lane RQI 54 44 49 0 / 70 1 models is stable and convergent. In particular, the loss curves of the
Third lane RDI 36 77 24 0 / 30 1 training and testing sets exhibit obvious and almost overlapping trends,
Third lane SRI 78 61 75 0 / 330 2 as shown in Fig. 10(b). The loss iteration graphs of the other outputs are
the same. However, as shown in Fig. 10(a), the SRI model of the first lane
reveals an underfitting tendency. On the one hand, the genetic algorithm
fluctuations toward the end of the iteration process, the reason was that
pursues the smallest MAPE sum in the validation and training sets while
even though the structure and hyperparameters of the model had been
ignoring the problem of an excessive gap between these two sets. On the
determined, the average fitness value of the population slightly fluctu­
other hand, the SRI of the other lanes is not determined. The lack of lane
ated due to the randomized initialization and training volatility of the
data in 2010 is likely to cause an uneven data division. A stable trend is
model itself. Notably, the fitness in the figure is an average level of the
reached within 200 generations on average, and the training efficiency
population, but not the best. Therefore, when the fitness of the popu­
and convergence speed of the model are also considerable.
lation has converged, the impact of the crossover operation tends to be
minimal. But the alteration continues, and the population falls into a
mutation-elimination-mutation cycle. Therefore, even if the genetic al­ 5.2. Model generalization ability analysis
gorithm is iterated, there still exist fluctuations of population fitness.
The above aspects also reflect that the influence of hyperparameters on The indexes typically employed for accuracy evaluation include the
deep learning models cannot be ignored. Therefore, it is necessary to average absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error
optimize the hyperparameters of deep learning models to tap their (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2). The computation
methods are expressed in Eqs. (12), (14), and (15), respectively:

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J. Li et al. Automation in Construction 135 (2022) 104111

Fig. 9. Genetic algorithm fitness reduction graph.

Fig. 10. Loss iteration graph: (a) SRI of the first lane with HNN model; (b) PQI of the second lane with HNN model.

√̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
1∑ n y i is the individual predicted value of the testing set,
of the testing set, ̂
RMSE = (yi − ̂y i )2 (14) and y is the expected real value of the sample.
n i=1
The evaluation results for the two models are summarized in
/ Tables 6–7. It shows from the tables that the RMSE and the MAPE of the
∑
n ∑
n
2
R = y i − y)
(̂ 2
(yi − y)2 (15) HNN neural network model of all indices are smaller than those of the BP
i=1 i=1 neural network. The low RMSE and MAPE values indicate that the error
between the predicted value and the actual value is small. The R2 of the
where n is the sample size of the testing set, yi is the individual real value

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J. Li et al. Automation in Construction 135 (2022) 104111

Table 6
BPNN model evaluation index value table.
Performance loss Training set Test set
2
Training set Test set RMSE MAPE R RMSE MAPE R2

First-PQI 0.1061 0.0836 3.83 3.3877 0.44 2.644 2.7918 0.21

First-PCI 0.0641 0.0822 9.281 8.7159 0.46 9.099 6.8208 0.59
First-RQI 0.0287 0.039 1.914 1.3719 0.35 1.674 1.0145 0.55
First-RDI 0.0544 0.0655 2.896 2.3622 0.41 3.089 2.9514 0.22
First-SRI 0.0643 0.1134 2.449 1.7722 0.55 3.536 2.4709 0.39
Second-PQI 0.897 0.1492 2.673 2.4529 0.68 2.655 2.4256 0.85
Second-PCI 0.0831 0.1047 4.440 3.7859 0.41 4.899 4.1364 0.38
Second-RQI 0.0405 0.0617 1.681 1.3907 0.6 2.041 1.6179 0.58
Second-RDI 0.044 0.0637 2.656 2.5124 0.74 2.663 2.4704 0.97
Second-SRI 0.053 0.059 2.038 1.5393 0.54 2.831 1.9348 0.69
Third-PQI 0.058 0.0488 2.631 2.0294 0.41 1.993 1.5829 0.44
Third-PCI 0.0589 0.0494 6.041 3.5165 0.59 5.213 2.8019 0.77
Third-RQI 0.0343 0.057 2.127 1.5353 0.58 2.563 2.2002 0.98
Third-RDI 0.0547 0.0498 3.471 3.2275 0.51 2.977 2.6839 0.41
Third-SRI 0.0699 0.1307 3.769 3.4368 0.84 3.42 2.8283 0.57

Table 7
HNN model evaluation index value table.
Performance loss Training set Test set

Training set Test set RMSE MAPE R2 RMSE MAPE R2

First-PQI 0.0557 0.0637 2.492 1.6713 0.67 2.469 1.9141 0.98

First-PCI 0.0574 0.0472 7.247 5.5255 0.6 5.465 3.9078 0.98
First-RQI 0.0168 0.017 1.024 0.6088 0.84 1.076 0.6157 0.71
First-RDI 0.0428 0.0562 1.966 1.9661 0.57 3.074 2.6154 0.41
First-SRI 0.0436 0.094 1.436 0.8993 0.85 2.853 1.9611 0.94
Second-PQI 0.0754 0.0831 1.809 1.3928 0.65 1.996 1.5433 0.76
Second-PCI 0.0681 0.0792 4.290 2.7069 0.77 5.004 3.2835 0.82
Second-RQI 0.0304 0.0441 1.348 0.7876 0.87 1.791 1.2148 0.77
Second-RDI 0.0384 0.0437 2.059 1.5656 0.8 2.053 1.7426 0.78
Second-SRI 0.0416 0.0513 1.618 0.9568 0.79 1.86 1.9776 0.98
Third-PQI 0.0427 0.0428 1.914 1.4207 0.76 2.079 1.4256 0.79
Third-PCI 0.047 0.0453 4.387 2.8226 0.79 4.475 2.6791 0.92
Third-RQI 0.0261 0.032 1.673 1.0446 0.78 2.093 1.2878 0.72
Third-RDI 0.0384 0.0494 2.668 2.142 0.71 3.092 2.7225 0.61
Third-SRI 0.0644 0.0761 1.888 1.2499 0.69 2.913 1.6717 0.49

HNN model, on the other hand, is all higher than that of the BP model. satisfactory. However, it is limited by data types, target value variables,
The R2 of the BP model fluctuates within a larger range than that of the and differences in prediction structure for discussing more details about
HNN model. The average R2 of the HNN model test set is 0.78, which is the accuracy. The models in the other studies above are correlation
35.58% higher than that of the BP model. models, without time series historical performance data as input vari­
A comparison between the developed models and other pavement ables. Instead, the model proposed in this study is a continuous pre­
performance prediction models in the literature is included in Table 8. diction model, which can deal with a large amount of historical data and
Due to the different prediction objectives, the relative evaluation index make accurate predictions of various performance indicators for future
R2 is selected as the evaluation criterion, and the average R2 of the five years at the level of 100 m.
performance models is selected in the current study. The robustness of The generalization ability of the model refers to the performance of
the developed hybrid model, compared to a model with large data is the model when applying it to a fresh data set not participating in the
training process after learning the rules from other data. To demonstrate
the generalization capabilities of these two models, 40 sets of data for
Table 8
the second lane were randomly selected, and the details of the com­
Comparison of various prediction models for pavement performance.
parison are shown in Fig. 11. It is concluded from Fig. 11 that both
Study Data Output Model Data R2 models effectively predict the various pavement performance indicators,
source variable size
and the HNN model achieves an apparent advantage in peak fitting, with
Mehran
LTPP-
GEP 95 0.91 the predicted curve closer to the real curve and the error controlled
Mazari IRI within a small range for all five pavement performance indexes.
America GEP-ANN 98 0.99
[11]
General
Taylor’s diagram characterizes the distance between each model and
Linear NA 0.50 the real data by calculating the root mean square error, correlation co­
Heriberto
Pérez- PMS-Spain
Skid resistance Models efficient, and standard deviation between the predicted and true values.
performance General This indicates the degree of agreement between the observed and esti­
Acebo [25]
Linear NA 0.56
mated performance with the BPNN and HNN models. Due to the large
Models
Mohamed S. random- difference in the numerical range and degree of fluctuation between the
LTPP- 996 0.48
Yamany IRI parameters different properties, this paper adopts the standard Taylor diagram. As
America
[5] ANN 996 0.71 shown in Fig. 12, in each group of models, the ratios of the root mean
Detection- Five BPNN 35,580 0.55 square error and standard deviation to the standard deviation of the true
Present study
China performance HNN 35,580 0.78

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J. Li et al. Automation in Construction 135 (2022) 104111

Fig. 11. Comparison chart of predicted and real values to the output variables of (a) PQI, (b) PCI, (c) RQI, (d) RDI, and (e) SRI.

12
J. Li et al. Automation in Construction 135 (2022) 104111

0 0.1 0 0.1
0.2 0.2
0.3 Co 1.5 0.3 Co
0.4 rr 0.4 rr
e e
0.5 la 0.5 la
t
io 2 t
io
1 0.6 n 0.6 n
1

C
0.7 0.7

o
e

e
ff

ff
1

ic

ic
0.8 0.8

ie

ie
1
Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation
nt

nt
1

0.9 0.9
0.5

0.95 0.5 1 0.95

0
D

D
0.99 0.99
S

S
R M

R M
0 1 0 1
0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1 1.5
observation observation

(a) (b)
Fig. 12. Taylor diagram of models of: (a) BPNN, (b) HNN

Fig. 13. Fitness of training and testing sets: (a) RQI, (c) RDI, (e) PCI, (g) SRI, (i) PQI of BPNN model; (b) RQI, (d) RDI, (f) PCI, (h) SRI, (j) PQI of HNN model.

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J. Li et al. Automation in Construction 135 (2022) 104111

Fig. 13. (continued).

value are calculated as the standard root mean square error and standard
deviation, respectively. Each point represents the results of one model,
and the bottom point represents the actual sample. The model closer to
the actual sample achieves a better generalization ability. This method
more intuitively reveals the performance of the two models. As shown in
Fig. 12(a), the BPNN model is radial and distributed in the middle area
of the fan. As shown in Fig. 12(b), the HNN model is concentrated and
located in the lower half of the sector. Generally, the HNN model result
is closer to the real sample. Especially in terms of the standard deviation,
the HNN model curve is arc-shaped, which is very close to the standard
deviation of the real sample, which indirectly indicates its high degree of
fit.
5.3. Prediction results
Considering the application of pavement performance prediction as a

14
J. Li et al.
reference for road maintenance decisions, the peak fitting ability of the
model counts considerably, and thus, it is necessary to monitor the
fluctuations in the models. To explore the performance of the proposed
models, scatter plots of the actual and predicted RQI, RDI, PCI, SRI and
PQI of the second lane using the BP and HNN models are plotted in
Fig. 13. As shown in Fig. 13, where the true value is plotted on to the
horizontal axis and the predicted value is plotted on the vertical axis, the
1:1 black solid line represents the most ideal conditions referred to as the
standard line, and the two dashed lines represent the fitting curve with
an error of 10%. The blue dots represent the training set data, while the
red dots represent the testing set data. The predicted values of the two
models occur within the 10% floating range of the real value. These
models thus roughly capture the fluctuations in performance between
the different mileposts. Fig. 13(e), (g) and (i) shows that there are many
points distributed side by side and vertically in the BP model while the
scatter point of the HNN model is uniformly distributed along the 1:1
reference line. It can also be observed that the discrete points of the BP
model are more than those of the HNN model. The same situation can be
found by comparing Fig. 13(c) and (g), in which the data point of the BP
model is more concentrated below the 1:1 reference line while the data
of the HNN model are evenly distributed on both sides of the reference
line. These phenomena demonstrate that the HNN model is better than
the BP model in predicting the performance parameters.
To compare the fluctuation of the prediction results, the prediction
results and the actual RQI, RDI, PCI, SRI and PQI along the milepost are
plotted in Fig. 14. It shows that the HNN model exhibits a larger fluc­
tuation range than that of the BP model, which is also observed from the
standard deviation of the Taylor diagram, as shown in Fig. 12. This
suggests that the HNN model has a better performance in following the
fluctuation of the true value. Second, it also shows that the peak and
valley values predicted by the HNN are much closer to the true data
compared to the BP method, which means that the reproducibility of the
HNN model is better than that of the BPNN model. Finally, it shows that
for a given model with varying target values, the prediction value in­
tervals are different by comparing those two models. Therefore, the
prediction model of different performance indexes should be trained
independently instead of with a uniform model.
A box plot of the second lane is shown in Fig. 15 to express the dif­
ferences between the predicted and actual values. The quality of the
model can be assessed by comparing the degree of statistical cluster
expression of the true and predicted values. The figure shows that the
predicted value of the two models can accurately fit the actual value
based on the statistical distribution of the performance, including the
median, average, and upper and lower quarter quantiles. First, the dis­
tribution of the boxes is evaluated. In predicting the PQI, PCI, and RQI,
the box length and position of the HNN model are completely consistent
with those of the actual values. The boxes of RDI and SRI are only
slightly shorter than the box of the true value, but the positions are the
same. In predicting the PQI, RDI, and SRI as the output variables, the
boxes of the BPNN model are compressed, which indicates that the
prediction range of the BPNN model is narrow. The positions of the RQI
and SRI boxes of the BPNN model are also notably lower. Second, the
distribution of the median and mean values is assessed. The median and
average values of the RQI and SRI boxes obtained with the BP model
slightly deviate, and the rest of the boxes accurately corresponds to the
boxes of the true value. In general, the performance of the proposed
HNN model is better than that of the BP model through distribution
interval analysis and density comparison. This means the HNN model is
effective in predicting pavement performance and thus making main­
tenance decisions.
5.4. Model practicality analysis
In practice, the maintenance department needs to know the pave­
ment performance of the specific location in advance to make preventive
maintenance plans. However, few studies have provided prediction
15
Automation in Construction 135 (2022) 104111
models that can predict all important pavement performance indexes to
the specific milepost in a one-year advance. In this study, data from
2010 to 2018 were used to train the GA enhanced HNN model. The
model is then used to predict the pavement performance from 2019. A
box plot of the predicted results and the actual performance of the
second lane is shown in Fig. 16, and the average values of the evaluation
indexes of the three lanes are listed in Table 9.
Fig. 16 shows that in the validation study, the predicted box ranges of
PQI, RQI, and SRI are consistent with those of the actual values, but
there occurs a certain deviation in the fitting of PCI and RDI. The pre­
dicted median and average values of the HNN model correspond to those
of the real values, which verifies the reliability of the model. Table 9
indicates that the MAPE values of the three lanes are all within 5%, the
average RMSE values are all under 6, and the average R2 value reaches
0.74, which demonstrates that the model has good accuracy and
generalization ability in practical application. The MAPE and RMSE in
the validation study are higher than the test value, while R2 is slightly
lower than the test value by comparing Tables 6 and 7. A scatter plot is
drawn to compare the predicted and actual values from 2019. As shown
in Fig. 17, most fitting points are concentrated near the standard line or
within the 10% error line, indicating that the proposed model has a
certain reference value in practice. However, there are still some fitting
points that overflow the error lines, and this situation is slightly more
serious than that in the testing set mentioned above. This is because the
2019 data did not participate in the training stage and the model could
not learn the trend of the data change.
In actual applications, the PQI of all 100-meter sections of the
expressway is predicted based on the model, and road sections that are
about to be severely damaged or are well below the maintenance
threshold will be forecasted in advance. The administrative department
should implement minor maintenance measures on this section of the
road. According to the predicted values of PCI, RQI, RDI, and SRI, the
performance of the first valley value is taken as the premaintenance
target, and the corresponding maintenance measures are matched to this
specific road section so that the maintenance plan is formulated. Before
a specific section of the expressway is damaged, timely maintenance
measures should be taken to save maintenance costs and keep the
expressway in a high-level service condition. Therefore, the establish­
ment of a high-precision, lane-divided, tiny-unit and performance-
differentiated prediction model is critical in applications.
6. Conclusions
In this study, the BP model and the HNN model are compared to
continuously predict the performance of highway asphalt pavement.
This study, for the first time, provides predictions of all important in­
dexes, i.e., PQI, PCI, RQI, RDI, and SRI, of asphalt highway pavement
performance in 100-m intervals for a specific lane, which has a great
significance in highway preventive maintenance. To ensure the conti­
nuity of pavement performance improvement over time, a restart point
data processing method is proposed, and a GA method is adopted to
optimize the hyperparameters of the network to obtain a deep learning
model that accurately predicts the pavement performance. Through in-
depth analysis of the model, the stability and reliability of the GA
enhanced HNN model and its advantages over the traditional ANN
model are verified. Based on the analysis in the above research, the
following conclusions can be summarized:
(1) In this study, GA enhanced HNN and BP neural networks are
established based on 10 years of data from the G18 national
highway in China. The study for the first time predicts all five
important pavement performance indexes, i.e., PCI, PQI, RQI,
RDI, SRI, of different lanes in 100-m intervals. The results show
that the prediction accuracy of GA enhanced HNN has a large
advantage over the traditional ANN. The average R2 of the HNN
model test set is 0.78, which is 35.58% higher than that of the
J. Li et al. Automation in Construction 135 (2022) 104111

Fig. 14. Distribution diagram of predicted and actual values of (a) RQI; (b) RDI; (c) PCI; (d) SRI; (e) PQI.

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J. Li et al. Automation in Construction 135 (2022) 104111

Fig. 15. Boxplot of actual and predicted values for the second lane. Fig. 17. Predicted performance of 2019.

and the average R2 reaches 0.74. The results demonstrate that GA

enhanced HNN is a promising method in highway pavement
performance prediction and thus lays a theoretical foundation for
preventive maintenance decision-making.
(3) The pavement performances for different lanes are also compared
in this study. Although the different lanes are under the same
environmental conditions, pavement performance indexes
exhibited distinct fluctuation characteristics for different lanes.
Therefore, it is recommended to train the model for different
lanes separately to ensure more accurate and effective pre­
dictions. Moreover, the number of prediction cycles should be
extended as much as possible, allowing the model to learn more
abundant pavement performance improvement patterns to
enhance its robustness.

In summary, the proposed method realized precise prediction of

highway asphalt pavement performance one year ahead, which fulfills
the key step in preventive maintenance. However, further investigations
need to be carried out to make this strategy more applicable in practice.
A multistep prediction method considering error accumulation should
Fig. 16. Pavement performance indexes between actual value and pre­ be developed because the maintenance budget is usually made in a
dicted value. three-year period. On the other hand, the influence of different main­
tenance methods on pavement performance was not taken into consid­
eration in the current study. Future works should explore the factors
Table 9
Model average evaluation index.
affecting the decay ratio of pavement performance to determine the best
preventive maintenance strategy.
Lane Average MAPE Average RMSE Average R2

The first lane 4.2142 5.2131 0.69 Declaration of Competing Interest

The second lane 3.8507 4.3422 0.78
The third lane 3.6421 4.5217 0.74
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
traditional ANN model. The average MAPE of the performance the work reported in this paper.
index for the HNN model in each test set is controlled within 2%,
which greatly improves the accuracy compared with the tradi­ Acknowledgments
tional ANN model.
(2) The GA enhanced HNN was used to establish a continuous pre­ The funding supports from Natural Science Foundation of Hebei
diction model for the five performance indexes of three different Province (No. E2019202072), Tianjin Municipal Transportation Com­
lanes in the validation study. The data from 2010 to 2018 were mission and Tianjin Expressway Group Co. LTD. (No. 2018-44), and
used to train the model, while the data from 2019 were used for Hebei Expressway Group Yanchong Office (No. YC-201917) are grate­
validation. The results show that the GA enhanced HNN can fully acknowledged.
accurately predict the pavement performance in 100-m intervals
to the specific milepost based only on previous years’ data. The
average MAPE of the model for the three lanes is all under 5%,

17
J. Li et al. Automation in Construction 135 (2022) 104111

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