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Justin Dooley

Professor Leonard

English 1201.512

3 March 2021

Trends of History: An Overview

A lone Englishman stands on a rocky shore, staring up into the night sky and lets his

thoughts wander, unknowing that his shoes are on the same stone that William the Conqueror’s

boots touched as he conquered England and pondered the same philosophies. As historic

recurrence, historical repetitions, or just as plain as déjà vu, the concept of history repeating itself

is quite literally older than recorded history. Focused on by philosophers for millennia, it has

been a topic of debate and argument by some of the greatest minds of both antiquity and

modernity. From these debates, there is not much of a consensus, but some basic concepts are

agreed upon. History repeats itself only in that comparable circumstances elicit different

reactions yet similar consecutive events throughout time, and so as each trial faces each new

person or establishment akin to the last, history repeats. In short, history is like a test, and every

man, woman, and child who has ever lived has taken it. There may be a couple different

questions and the context may be entirely different, but the topic remains the same.
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The main disagreement in the ongoing debates is which perspective to study from.

Among the possible candidates are the cyclical, alternation, reciprocal, reenactment, and the

uniformity views. The cyclical focuses on “the belief that history... [passes] through a fixed

sequence of at least three stages,”, the alternation focusing on the idea that there are two sets of

conditions that continually switch, the reciprocal seeing that similar events cause a consequence

so often that it becomes recognizable, the reenactment positing that any act has been and will be

repeated, whether knowingly or unknowingly, and the uniformity view supposes that human

nature is so unchangeable throughout time that a past event could happen at any time (Trompf 2).

Of these, the most well relied upon and the most prominent is the reciprocal view, and so this

view shall be covered in the following. As previously stated, some of the greatest writers and

minds in history have debated this subject, including Polybius of Megalopolis (The Histories),

Luke the Evangelist (The Gospel of Luke), and Niccolò Machiavelli (The Prince), among others

(Trompf 2). However, one main piece of conjecture that is agreed upon is that history can repeat

itself at any time, not just throughout history from ancient till modern times.

In the first place, the largest trend that one notices throughout history is the simple fact of

the human civilization. This may be obvious, but the very fact that societies can form, break, and

form again is evidence of historic recurrences. For instance, in western civilizations, the cycle

began with the Mesopotamian city-states of Ur, Susa, Uruk and the like. These city states then

evolved into small kingdoms, such as that of the Akkadians (Cole and Symes 16). These small

kingdoms would then evolve into larger empires, as with the Persian Empire, which would then

persist until the end of the Second World War and would sometimes be sent back into kingdoms

and city-states. The famous city-states of Ancient Greece, for example, were conquered by Philip

II of Macedon in 338 BC (Cole and Symes 122). This Macedonian Empire was then continued
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by Philip II’s son, Alexander the Great, and soon came to control areas such as Greece, Egypt,

Asia Minor, Babylon, and most of the territory previously held by Persia. When the Macedonian

Empire fell apart after Alexander’s death, an empire known as Rome came to the forefront of

history. When Rome eventually fell, the civilizations of Byzantium, Northwestern Europe, and

Islam became its successors. As stated by Cole and Symes, “The three civilizations that emerged

as Rome’s heirs each exhibit aspects of Roman civilization, which itself was a product of older

civilizations,” (Cole and Symes 246). As the years pass, these civilizations will crumble and

grow and crumble again, with each civilization creating successors and leaving answers to the

metaphorical test to be studied by future students of history.

Without further ado, the largest recurring problem that each society is met with is that of

governance and succession. Once more, the Greek city-states of Athens and Sparta are the two

best examples of city-states to review, both because of their power over other city-states and

therefore working method of governance, but also because of their clear succession protocols.

Athens, well-known for being the birthplace of democracy, was a restricted democracy, as “out

of a total population of 315,000 souls, 115,000 were slaves, and only 43,000 were citizens with

the right to vote,” (Durant and Durant 72). This meant that there was no great need to have a

succession system, as a relatively small population still had the ability to vote publicly on things

with no single ruler, while being guided by the aristocracy. Sparta, on the other hand, was a dual

monarchy, “with two royal families and two lines of succession,” and was supplemented by a

council of elders (called a Gerousia) who could elect a new king in case of one’s death and lack

of successor (Cole and Symes 89). This was completely overwritten by the conquest of Philip II

and Alexander, who placed a single ruler on the throne and was supported by various kings of
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regions or cities dealing with the day-to-day matters, but Alexander simply solved the matter of

succession by saying his empire should go “To the strongest,” (Cole and Symes 126).

Rome, in its infancy, adopted the single monarchy form of government, which was

overthrown by the idea of the Roman Republic. The Roman Republic was characterized by

“[combining] elements of a monarchy (executive officeholders, the consuls), an aristocracy (the

Senate), and a polity (the people’s assembly and the tribunes),” which reveals a form of learning

on part of the Romans, as they studied the problems of their past and attempted to avoid past

mistakes (Cole and Symes 153). The Roman Republic was overturned when Gaius Julius Caesar

started a civil war in Rome and opened the way for his son-in-law Octavian (later Augustus) to

become the imperator (since changed to Emperor) of Rome. This new Principate, as it is referred

to, was characterized by the Emperor adopting the most able man into his own house and raising

him as a son and heir as well as keeping the Senate around, although it had no real power. This

system started the Pax Romana, a period of 200 years of peace. As the Pax Romana deteriorated,

Emperors had stopped adopting people into their own families and instituted a system like that of

the Roman kings and passing down authority from father to son. This system (a monarchy

supported by a body of elected officials) would be all but lost until the British Empire, where

Parliament had some power to keep the king in line, as the territories of Rome shattered into

various small kingdoms. As can be seen, each iteration of civilization had tried a new form of

government to perpetuate the existence of their own civilization. Until Rome found an efficient

form of government in a monarch supported by a Senate (a mix of monarchy, aristocracy, and

democracy), each previous society had fallen prey to the problem of succession. This Roman

form of government can be argued to still persist in a certain style today, albeit changed to be
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more fair and less greedy toward the people, in the form of the Senate, the House of

Representatives, and the President, or some variation of it.

One of the stranger machinations of history

is socio-economic in nature. Typically,

improvements in quality of life or economic

upswings happen after periods of great strife or

uncertainty. As Carolyn Whitzman points out, “the

Black Death from 1347 to 1351 resulted in

improved working and living conditions for low-

income workers of that era, which in turn led to

healthier diets and better resistance to later

recurrences of the disease,” (Whitzman). Fig. 1.

from the 1930’s shows that the the anti-vaccine

trend is not a new occurrence (Misinformation to Smallpox). The improved living standards for

low- and middle-class people happens to be a trend throughout history that recurs after similar

epidemics, such as later after the cholera epidemic of the 1850’s or the influenza outbreak in the

late 1910’s. While the Black Plague lowered the price of bread for the peasantry and gave

farmland a chance to rest from overuse, the later plagues had a less direct impact on populated

areas (Cole and Symes 361). The cholera outbreak of the 1850’s, for instance, “allowed

pioneering epidemiologist John Snow to establish the link between clean drinking water and the

disease, which eventually led to government infrastructure investments in water and sanitation,”

(Whitzman). The later 1918 outbreak of influenza, on the other hand, lead to increased
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investment in housing and healthcare, as the disease was fueled by the trench conditions of

World War 1 with cold, wet, underfed humans to spread amongst, Whitzman asserts.

As for the more truly economic repetitions of history, it is posited by William and Ariel

Durant that behind every great event is a man with great economic interest, as “having studied

the fluctuations of prices, they know that history is inflationary, and that money is the last thing

that a wise man will hoard,” (Durant and Durant). The rich will endeavor to make money from

the trials of the poor and of the governments (most probably wars), and spend or invest lavishly

into these lost pursuits, then collect on the accrued debt by governments or private individuals,

who cannot hope to pay it off. In a very simplified and Marxian form, the rich will become more

so at the expense of those who are not. Typically, as seen from after events that stress the public,

such as the first World War, this collection of debt may or may not make returns possible, as the

loss of Germany started an intense recession, and the success of the Allied Powers started a

period of economic bliss. This pattern of the rich desiring to become richer can be seen by the

deaths of the Gracchus brothers in Republican Rome after the turbulence of the Third Punic War,

where both lobbied for economic reform and redistribution of land in the office of tribune (the

voice of the people in the Senate), and both were killed by the mainly high-class Senators (Cole

and Symes 162). This repetition can also be seen in recent history, as strikes and union-organized

protests are shut down (often by force) by the owner or by the government in order to maximize

profits.

Always hand in hand are times of socioeconomic growth after great pandemonium and

confusion, and these periods of stability are dominated by culture and art blossoming. Art is

perhaps most beneficial of repetitions that history bestows to man, as the arts are primarily a

force of creation and growth. For instance, the most well-known of these periods would be the
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Renaissance, which was precipitated by the Middle Ages (a period of almost constant wars) or

the Pax Romana, a period of about 200 years following the establishment of the Roman Empire

characterized by peace and prosperity. Perhaps the next best-known period would be the Golden

Age of Classical Greece, preceded by the Persian invasion of Greece in 480 BC (Cole and Symes

96). Following the long period of religious war known as the Reformation, the modern focus of

social and political philosophy would be born in what is known in modern times as the

Enlightenment. Among others such as the Islamic Golden Age, these periods all were forged

from hard fought wars and strife, as well as consisted of a return to furthering the visual arts,

philosophy, mathematics, science, literature, and an increasing appreciation for classical works

from eras long past, such as Homer’s Iliad or Odyssey. To further illustrate this, let us look at

how the Renaissance came to be.

Italy, after becoming rich due to the trade in the Mediterranean of the 12th, 13th, and 14th

centuries, was not involved in the major wars between France and England at the time and had

just finished recovering from the Black Plague. The aristocracy of Italy was therefore more

wealthy, due to a lack of taxation, and “more fully involved in public affairs than their

counterparts north of the Alps,” because the aristocracy thrived on trade and commerce, rather

than political factors (Cole and Symes 369). Italy was also fresh from the hundreds of revolts

across Europe caused by mistreatment of the peasantry (Cole and Symes 362). This is eerily

similar to the state of affairs in ancient Athens, when Classical Greece came to its height. For

context, the city-state of Athens was the head of the Delian League, a group of city-states bound

together by temporary alliance against the Spartans at the head of the Peloponnesian League, and

was therefore a major trading hub in the Greek countryside (Cole and Symes 97). Athens also

had a closer relationship between the people and the aristocrats than the Spartans would have
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had, as a large portion of the population could have a say in political matters. Also fresh from a

large-scale war, Athens had single-handedly defeated the Persians at Marathon, and then united

with the other warring city-states against the Persians as the threat became taken seriously. It is

the same with the Pax Romana, as Augustus had to cut down the power of the Senate (the

aristocracy of Rome) in order to claim the title and power of Emperor and was already the center

of a vast trading empire, stretching from Egypt in the East to modern day Portugal in the West.

The civil war between Caesar and Pompey provided the backdrop of conflict to the Romans, as

the sense and taste of bloodshed was very present in both Greece and Italy.

As Mikael Strömberg discussed in his 2017 article, History Repeating Itself: The

Function of Turning Points and Continuity in Three Historical Narratives on Operetta, history

can be viewed from multiple angles, either as a turning point or as a continuation. This is a

simplistic and yet complicated view of history, as it requires a much more in-depth dive into any

single subject. For instance, during the Italian Renaissance, the times in which famous artisans

Michelangelo Buonarotti and Donatello Bardi lived were separated by about 10 years, and yet

came to the same rough ideals and aspects of art. The minor differences between the two could

be considered a turning point, but the major overarching aspects of their lives would be

considered a continuity, as an example. Strömberg posits that even the study of history in itself is

a continuity. As moths drawn to a flame, historians are drawn to events deemed interesting, and

as such, “a consequence of these narratives being re-told over and over is a sedimentation where

each repetitive turn strengthens the importance of the selected events or facts, together with how

they have been interpreted and presented,” (Strömberg 1). This brings up that now, in this

modern age of infinite communication, there is no such idea as “unbiased” repetition, as people

themselves deem an event as being worth repeating by placing significance upon it.
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Of the many critiques that of the idea of historical recurrence has come into conflict with

is that historical recurrence is simply a person looking far too much into history and seeing

patterns that are only illusions. However, this paper barely touches on most of the time periods

covered, and only covers the large, obvious trends throughout history. If one were to look closer,

it is quite possible that one could see even more of a repetitive element to history by examining

exact wording in a person’s speeches or one person’s attitude towards a subject to compare with

another person’s take, but for most of history, this just is not possible for a variety of reasons.

The first being that time travel, while fantasized, is not possible, and so it would be impossible to

get accounts that can compare directly between time periods from people throughout history. The

second, is that from what records do exist, most only focus on the main subjects that the subject

would have experienced or had to deal with throughout most of life. Take Martin Luther for

example. Without time travel, it would be impossible to get Luther’s opinions on international

trade and whether it is good for the economies of multiple nations to cohabitate in the same

markets, as the existing documents that deal with Luther’s opinions almost solely deal with his

opinions on the Catholic Church Pre-Protestant Reformation.

Another critic of historical recurrence may say that a pattern throughout history does not

mean repetition, which is fundamentally true. A pattern that every time event A occurs, event B

follows is not repetition as, again, time travel does not exist, and so it is impossible for event A

to happen in the exact circumstances as it had before. This thereby makes it impossible for event

B to occur, which is the same principle as the “eternal return”, the idea that once the universe

ends, all the atoms at the end will be at the same position and velocity as they were at the

beginning, creating the same circumstances for the entire universe. Nonetheless, it is possible to

repeat a series of events in the wider scheme of things and for the same types of events to occur
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back-to-back. As acclaimed author Mark Twain said, “History does not repeat itself, but it often

rhymes.” This is the idea that is meant to be gotten at when one says, “historical recurrence”, not

“eternal recurrence” (which is also known as the eternal return).

The last and possibly most widely used criticism of historical recurrence is that it is all a

coincidence, and that these consecutive events seem similar to each other as we want to see a

trend. This, however, is highly unlikely, as the modern times are not the only ones to know of the

history of the planet. Emperor Augustus tasked the Roman poet Virgil with writing the story of

Aeneas in the form of Homer, a famous and distinctly Greek poet from nearly 700 years before.

Dante Alighieri wrote a series of epics with the poet Virgil as his guide, a man who had died

nearly 1300 years before Dante was born. Even Charlemagne, King of the Franks, was crowned

the Emperor of Rome nearly 400 years after Rome had fallen. If these examples say anything,

then it is possible for people who we currently see as in the past to have learned from their own

pasts and to have taken inspiration from any person and applied a similar strategy to a “modern”

problem. This can be seen in any one of the previous examples, or by how the German invasion

of Russia was foiled by the harsh weather and even more stubborn Russian civilians, as was

Napoleon before Hitler (Lewin 1). Just as we can learn from the mistakes of others, so could

those others have learned from those before them.

Call it what you will, a weird feeling of being in the same place or history repeating,

whether you think that it is a coincidence or some manifest function of the universe, the evidence

is overwhelmingly clear. History repeats itself in ways that bear such a resemblance that it

cannot be overlooked. These trends throw themselves at the civilizations that populate history,

and a historian can see the similarities between the waves, much as one astronomer could see the

similarities in a pair of supernovae, or a mathematician could in two like formulae. As the

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Englishman stares looking up into the stars, he realizes that he is not the first to stand here and

wonder, nor will he be the last.

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Works Cited

Cole, Joshua and Carol Symes. Western Civilizations. Norton & Company, 2019. Accessed 11

Jan. 2021.

Durant, William, and Ariel Durant. The Lessons of History. 1968. edited by Ariel Durant, 1st

ed., New York, NY, Simon and Schuster, 1968. Accessed 17 Feb. 2021.

Lewin, Eyal. “The 2013 Israeli Elections and Historic Recurrences.” Israel Affairs, vol. 21, no. 2,

Apr. 2015, pp. 293–308. EBSCOhost, doi:10.1080/13537121.2015.1008245.

Misinformation to Smallpox. 19 May 2019. Writer MC, https://www.writermc.com/wp-

content/uploads/2019/05/smallpoxmisinformation.jpg. Accessed 14 Apr. 2021.

Strömberg, Mikael. “History Repeating Itself: The Function of Turning Points and Continuity in

Three Historical Narratives on Operetta.” Nordic Theatre Studies, vol. 29, no. 1, July

2017, pp. 102–116. EBSCOhost, search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?

direct=true&db=ibh&AN=127622364&site=eds-live.

Trompf, Garry Winston. The Idea of Historical Recurrence in Western Thought. [1], from

Antiquity to the Reformation. Berkeley, California, University Of California Press. C,

1979.

Whitzman, Carolyn; VISITING PROFESSOR; URBAN PL. “Silver Lining: Could COVID-19

Lead to a Better Future?” Canadian Press, The. EBSCOhost,

search.ebscohost.com/login.aspxdirect=true&db=pwh&AN=MYO107073860220&site=e

ds-live. Accessed 2 Mar. 2021.