BENDING THE CURVE: FGM TRENDS WE AIM TO CHANGE

If FGM continues to be practised at current levels,

1
68 million girls will be subjected to FGM by 2030.

Faith (center) with her friends Sylvia (right) and Vivian,

who all ran away from home to avoid female genital mutilation
and child marriage. © UNFPA Kenya/Douglas Waudo

15 million 3.9 million 4.6 million

will have FGM by 2030 In 2015, an estimated The number of girls to have
in Indonesia. 3.9 million girls FGM each year is projected to
had FGM globally. rise to 4.6 million girls
by 2030.

New data shows the numbers are larger, and increasing.

Prior estimates did not include Number of girls expected to have FGM per year, by country, in millions.
data from Indonesia, thereby 5,000
Benin Kenya

underestimating the number of girls Burkina Faso Mali

having FGM each year in high-risk Central African Republic Mauritania

4,000
countries. Prior estimates indicated Chad Niger

approximately 3.2 million girls have Côte d’Ivoire Nigeria

FGM per year.2 3,000

Egypt Senegal

Ethiopia Sierra Leone

Why will the number increase? 2,000 The Gambia Somalia

Because of population growth among Ghana Sudan

young girls in 25 countries where 1,000

Guinea-Bissau Togo

Yemen
FGM is prevalent and relevant data Guinea

United Republic
are available. 0
Indonesia
of Tanzania
2015 2020 2025 2030 Iraq

Source: Population and Development Branch, Technical Division, UNFPA

Location of girls expected to have FGM between 2015 and 2030

The new estimates are based on DHS and MICS*

surveys, which provide the risk of FGM by single
years of age and combine these probabilities with
data from the 2017 UN World Population Prospects,
allowing us to generate more precise estimates and
projections of the number of girls at risk of FGM in
each country.

Number of girls expected to have FGM

between 2015 and 2030, in thousands

10–100
200–700
800–1,000
2,000–4,000
5,000–20,000
No Data

*With the exception of Indonesia, where it is based on the national RISKESDAS survey (2013).
The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map
do not imply offi cial endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. Source: Population and Development Branch, Technical Division, UNFPA

Underlying population dynamics are important when estimating FGM risk.

UNFPA’s latest estimates imply that even if the probability of FGM stays constant, globally, more and more girls will be affected each
year due to the underlying population growth in high-risk countries. It highlights the importance of factoring in underlying population
dynamics when estimating FGM risk. It also demonstrates that increased efforts are required to halt this trend.

Number of girls expected to have FGM between 2015 and 2030, in specific countries
1.0
Number of girls expected to undergo
Guinea Mali FGM in thousands (2015-2030)

Somalia
Under 2,500
0.75
The Gambia
Probability of experiencing FGM

Sudan

2,500–7,500
Mauritania Indonesia
Egypt
0.50

Guinea-Bissau
Sierra Leone Nigeria

7,500–12,500
Chad
Ethiopia
Yemen Niger
0.25
Burkina Faso
Côte d'Ivoire
Senegal
Iraq 12,500–16,000
Central
African
Republic Kenya

Togo Benin Ghana United Republic of Tanzania

0
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

Number of girls 0–14, in thousands, in 2022

Source: Population and Development Branch, Technical Division, UNFPA

Better data and improved estimation methods are critical tools

to help protect the rights of women and girls everywhere.

unfpa.org/fgm

1 T
 he countries include: Benin, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Indonesia, Iraq, Kenya, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra
Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Togo, United Republic of Tanzania, and Yemen. As the most recent data on FGM for Cameroon, Djibouti, and Eritrea date back prior to 2010, these countries have not been included in this analysis.
Uganda and Liberia had to be excluded from the analysis as the precise age of cutting was not recorded in the surveys.
2 See for example: Yoder et al., 2013. Estimates of Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting in 27 African Countries and Yemen. Studies in Family Planning, 44[2]: 189-204.

UNFPA, in collaboration with UNICEF, leads the largest global Joint programme to accelerate
the elimination of FGM: Accelerate Change.