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A MOTLEY FOOL CANADA SPECIAL REPORT

Cash Kings:
Three Top Dividend Stocks
to Help Your Portfolio Prosper
in 2017 and Beyond

Winter 2017
Cash Kings: Three Top Dividend Stocks to Help Your
Portfolio Prosper in 2017 and Beyond
by Bryan White

Dear Fellow Fools,


Welcome to our special Cash Kings: Three Top Dividend Stocks to Help Your Portfolio Prosper in 2017 and Beyond report. Our
mission here at Motley Fool Canada is to help investors achieve superior investment returns over the long haul. We’re long-term,
business-focused investors seeking out the very best investment ideas for your portfolio. And, we’re excited to present 3 dividend-
paying stocks that we believe will beat the market over the next 3 to 5 years.
Dividend paying stocks have been an integral part of successful investing portfolios for a very long time. As you’ll see in the graphs
below, dividend payers in the S&P/TSX Index have historically outperformed non-dividend payers and with less volatility. That’s a
very attractive combination, particularly for the increasing number of baby boomers preparing for, and entering, retirement.

Dividend-paying stocks have Dividend-paying stocks have displayed


outperformed over time lower volatility over time

Compound annual total returns Annualized volatility


10% 24%
10.3% 23%
8%
6% 16%
6.5% 16%
14%
4%
2% 8%
0.0%
0
Non-dividend Index Dividend
payers payers 0
Non-dividend Index Dividend
payers payers
Source: RBC Capital Markets Quantitative Research, data is calculated on an equal weight basis, S&P/TSX Source: RBC Capital Markets Quantitative Research, annualized volatility is calculated on an equal
Composite Total Return Index, December 1986 - December 2013. weighted basis, S&P/TSX Composite Total Return Index, December 1986 - December 2013.

We believe superior long-term returns are driven by a company’s ability to earn an above-average return on the capital invested in
the business. The beauty of a fundamentally strong company that pays a dividend to investors is the quarterly capital outlay forces
discipline upon the management team.
Companies that return a significant portion of their cash flow to investors in the form of a dividend must be disciplined with the
cash flow they choose to reinvest in the business. There’s simply less room for error than your average company that retains all of
its cash flow.
The three stocks ideas we’re presenting to you today exhibit strong business fundamentals and healthy returns on invested capital.
They also offer investors attractive dividend yields with the prospect of increasing their dividend payouts well into the future.
All of us here at Motley Fool Canada hope you enjoy our special report and wish you all the best on your way to achieving market
beating investment returns well into the future.
To your wealth,

Bryan White
Analyst, Motley Fool Canada

2 The Motley Fool Special Report — Winter 2017 fool.ca


Brookfield Infrastructure
Brookfield Infrastructure is one of the largest owners and operators of infra- Headquarters Toronto, Ontario
structure assets in the world.
Website https://www.brookfield.com
Why buy:
Industry Infrastructure
• The privatization of global infrastructure is providing a healthy flow of
opportunity. Volatility Medium
• The financial backing provided by the Brookfield family is second to none.
Market Cap USD$8,049.9
• It has a current portfolio that’s well suited to generate strong, inflation-
protected cash flows. Cash/Debt $586/$8,820.0
$70 Revenue (TTM) $1,893.0
$60 Earnings (TTM) $192.0
$50 Total Inside Ownership 0.11%
$40
Recent Price CAD$44.29
$30
Yield 4.7%
$20
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While there are several entities to choose from within the of role. These assets typically operate with long-life contracts
Brookfield family, Brookfield Infrastructure Partners with credit-worthy counterparties and offer a built-in inflation
(TSX:BIP.UN)(NYSE:BIP)—which we’ll refer to as BIP from hedge, which ensures their returns are at least consistent from
here on out—is the one that has us most intrigued. An estab- year to year. About 70% of the company’s cash flows are
lished portfolio of unique infrastructure assets that generate indexed to inflation.
some of the world’s most reliable cash flows and an opportunity
At the moment, the company’s cash flows support the
to grow as the privatization of this asset class gathers steam pro-
vide a one-two punch that your portfolio is likely to appreciate nearly-5% dividend yield offered by the stock. However, this
for many years to come. company is well known for increasing that dividend thanks to
the reliability of the underlying stream of cash its assets pro-
Should things work out as planned, with a world-class duce. We expect this trend will continue, leaving the potential
management team that Brookfield is renowned for at the helm, for an effective yield on our cost base that’s much higher in five
we foresee that this might be one of the most relaxing ways to years’ time.
earn a market-beating return that we’ve recommended thus far.
Sit back, relax, and let the dividends and potential for capital
appreciation roll.
Just getting warmed up
The current portfolio of cash-generating, unique assets is
The business but phase one of the BIP opportunity, however. While the
cash that these assets generate provides a base line, there are
BIP is a spin-out from big brother Brookfield Asset two more phases that are just as, if not more, enticing for
Management (TSX:BAM.A)(NYSE:BAM), which still owns long-term investors.
a 30% stake in the business. This is a common occurrence at
BAM, and it has several publicly traded subsidiaries, all associ- One of these phases is BIP’s opportunity to put new capital to
ated with “real assets.” work. BIP is in the envious position of not only having access
to a deep pool of capital (thanks in part to its affiliation with
As alluded to, BIP owns a unique set of infrastructure assets
BAM), but it operates in an asset class that allows this capital
that generate substantial cash flows and, in most cases, require
to be invested at highly attractive rates—especially when we
minimal maintenance capital expenditures. We’re talking
consider the current low interest rate environment.
things like transmission towers, toll roads, railroads, ports,
and pipelines that are virtually essential to day-to-day life, Specific opportunities that stand to provide ample returns on
even though they do tend to play a behind-the-scenes kind new capital for years to come include:

fool.ca Special Report — Winter 2017 The Motley Fool 3


• The acquisition of Asciano, an Australian port-and- enterprise has moved in. Deep pockets remain a critical piece
rail-logistics business. The transaction ended up being of the pie, putting a ring fence of sorts around entities that can
a touch complex, however; in the end, BIP will invest truly fill the void left by government. Thanks to the backing and
$350 million and end up with 50% ownership of Asci- unique access to capital that BAM provides, BIP is well within
ano’s port business and 100% of the bulk ports services that ring fence, which means they’re typically in an envious
business, which transports cars, grain, etc. position when it comes to securing deal terms.
• A $200 million investment into the construction of The other component to consider is the fact that Brookfield
1,200 kilometres of electricity transmission lines in is an operator. This separates it even further from the competi-
Brazil over the next five years. tion. Not only does it have access to low-cost capital, given
its operational capabilities, it’s able to take on some of the
• The continued buildout of its natural gas transmission
more downtrodden opportunities that exist. It can acquire these
and storage business in North America. This includes the
poorly run (sometimes legacy government) outfits, which
acquisition of Niska Gas Storage (NYSE:NKA) as well generally come at a more attractive price point, implement their
as a bevy of natural gas pipeline expansion projects. operational excellence, and end up with a return far in excess of
These, however, just scratch the surface as BIP stands with a what a purely financial player might extract.
total backlog of $2.3 billion in organic growth opportunities—
To be sure, things can still go bump in the night. Any entity
an all-time high. that’s wheeling and dealing and investing the kind of capital
The other phase that we’re referring to involves recycling that BIP does on a regular basis opens itself to a mistake or
capital. That is, selling mature assets from the portfolio and three along the way. Things don’t always go as planned—it’s as
re-investing that capital into opportunities that offer a more simple as that. Not only does risk exist on a project level, given
attractive potential return. Brazil is actually a perfect example its global operations, country and geopolitical risk are worth
of this dynamic in action as the company sold its transmis- noting as well. For example, the Asciano transaction mentioned
sion assets in 2009 for $270 million and an IRR of 32%. earlier significantly increases BIP’s exposure to China. A long
Opportunity has returned to Brazilian transmission, and so too recession on that front is sure to have a negative impact.
has BIP and its capital.
In 2016 alone, the company completed the sale of Cross
Foolish bottom line
Sound Cable for an IRR in excess of 30%, it sold its UK gas Trading at 2.1 times book value and with a distribution yield
distribution business for an IRR in excess of 30% and sold its near 5%, BIP doesn’t look horribly expensive, although it’s cer-
Ontario transmission business at an IRR ~20%. tainly traded more cheaply in the past. The long-term historical
average book value multiple is 1.4 times. There’s reason to
It has a core portfolio of cash-generating assets to support
believe we could revert somewhat on this front, whether it be a
the dividend and lots of opportunities to deploy fresh capital, general market sell-off, a lift in interest rates, or something more
as well as internally recycled capital for growth—a friendly company specific that’s unforeseeable at this point. A pullback,
trifecta for the long-term investor, especially in today’s market. however, especially if it’s market related, in our opinion, would
only spell opportunity.
Risks and considerations We are partial to “buying in thirds,” and this is another that
Though BIP owns and invests in “real assets,” understand we think jives with this strategy. If investors are interested in
that at its core, this is a financial entity. Not unlike a bank, BIP’s adding BIP, perhaps consider what constitutes a full position
mission, and well-being, is based on its ability to raise capital looks like in a portfolio and then go out and buy a third of that
at a rate that’s lower than the rate at which it can invest that position. Collect the dividend, let it simmer, and as time goes
capital—the bigger the spread, the better. on, ideally, opportunities will arise for investors to add at an
even more attractive valuation.
Aside from having its financial house in order—$3 billion
in total liquidity, well-laddered debt maturity profile, and most
debt is non-recourse—two further items provide confidence
that this raise low/invest high–spread relationship will hold.
One, the presence of big brother BAM is a key component to
this story. You see, infrastructure spending used to be an asset
class dominated by government. Typically, government was the
only game in town when it came to having the ability to fund
these assets. As government balance sheets around the world
are stretched and infrastructure spending can’t stop, private

4 The Motley Fool Special Report — Winter 2017 fool.ca


Verizon
Verizon is the leading provider of landline phone service in the U.S., and Headquarters New York, New York
Verizon Wireless is the leading provider of mobile phone service.
Website www.verizon.com
Why buy: Industry Telecommunications
• Dominant position in utility-like industry.
Volatility Low
• Reliable source of income in a low-rate environment.
Market Cap USD$206,563
• Continued increase in network use provides potential for capital
appreciation. Cash/Debt $6,441/$106,593
Revenue (TTM) $127,894
$100
Earnings (TTM) $14,023
$80
Total Inside Ownership 0.03%
$60 Recent Price $50.67
$40 Yield 4.6%

$20 TTM = Trailing 12 Months

$0 Dollar amounts in millions except recent price.


Data as of November 25, 2016
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Few sectors in the market are as well-suited to paying a healthy The company operates with three divisions: Wireless,
dividend as the telecommunications sector. One key difference Residential and Small Business, and Enterprise. Wireless is the
we’d like to highlight with regards to Verizon Communications big dog, representing nearly 70% of the company’s revenues
(NYSE: VZ) versus, say, Rogers Communications (TSX: and nearly all of its operating profit. The company’s 4G LTE
RCI.B) is that U.S. dividends flow into an RRSP account wireless network is the most comprehensive in the U.S. and
without being subjected to withholding tax; that’s not the case reaches over 300 million Americans.
when U.S. dividends flow into non-registered accounts, as well Its legacy landline telephone business is in decline, as you
as TFSAs and RESPs. So, be aware of your individual situation might suspect, but in 2005 Verizon introduced a fibre-optic cable
when examining U.S. dividend payers. offering by the name of FiOS that now dominates this segment
Now, enough with the logistics. Let’s meet this behemoth! of the business, representing ~35% of wireline revenues. The
introduction of this cable offering allowed Verizon to bundle a
Background collection of services, thus bolstering its competitive position.
Aside from its healthy yield, the thing that jumps off the
page for me about Verizon is its size. Its $206 billion market
Lots to Like
cap ranks among the top 10% of U.S.-listed companies. Things When it comes to telecom companies, big is beautiful, and
get even more interesting when we start stacking up the size of Verizon is the biggest and most beautiful of the bunch. It has the
Canada’s “Big 3” telecoms against this U.S. giant. best network in the U.S. It’s the leader in terms of profitability.
And it features the lowest subscriber churn. But don’t take my
With revenue over the past 12 months of $127 billion, word for it—none other than Warren Buffett recognized these
Verizon’s top line is 3.5 times bigger than the top line of BCE, same virtues by plunking down more than half a billion dollars
Telus, and Rogers … combined! In my view, this size differ- to acquire a chunk of Verizon back in 2014.
ence was a big reason Verizon turned its nose at the Canadian
And just like Rogers, it’s the company’s network that is
wireless business, which it reportedly explored a while back.
really at the heart of the story. Not only does it provide society
Simply, our market is too small to matter.
with the connections we crave, it underscores a really cool busi-
Though it’s incredibly large, Verizon was only born at ness model. As these networks are prohibitively expensive to
the turn of the century when a merger between Bell South establish, new ones aren’t just cropping up every day. Network
and GTE was consummated. In addition, prior to 2014, owners have very sizeable competitive advantages and moats
U.K.-based telecom giant Vodafone owned 45% of Verizon surrounding their business. In addition, because fixed costs are
Wireless. Verizon took advantage of the current low-rate high, adding new customers is virtually free. The more the mer-
environment and borrowed heavily to buy out Vodafone’s rier, and though Verizon’s absolute customer growth may slow,
position (for a mere $130 billion). network usage is expected to continue to march higher.

fool.ca Special Report — Winter 2017 The Motley Fool 5


You see, Verizon (again, just like Rogers), stands to benefit in the coming years. The company’s past, illustrated in the
from society’s trend toward increased levels of interconnec- chart below, indicates that this is likely to translate into a higher
tivity. As wireless devices continue to proliferate, and more dividend. As we are not currently paying for future dividend
“things” (cars, ovens, thermostats, etc.) become connected, net- increases, capital appreciation should occur as they happen,
work capacity must exist to support this proliferation. Verizon’s meaning this is more than just a yield play.
got the network, and we expect this network will only become VZ Historical Dividend/Share
more valuable in the future.
$2.5

Big Spenders on Digital Advertising


CAGR = 3.1%

$2.0
Section from Paul Chi, Analyst, Million Dollar Portfolio
$1.5
Verizon Communications has been in the news most recently
for its pursuit of Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO), which it intends
$1.0
to acquire for $4.8 billion. The proposed deal adds another 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e
layer to Verizon’s strategy of improving its content and adver-
tising capabilities. A year ago, Verizon’s $4.4 billion acquisition
of AOL gave a jump-start to that strategy. Here’s what CEO
Risk and Considerations
Lowell McAdam said about the acquisition: The market tends to focus on the entire telecom sector for its
income-generating capabilities. It’s a sector that is particularly
“Just over a year ago we acquired AOL to enhance our susceptible to interest rate moves. As rates can’t really go any
strategy of providing a cross-screen connection for lower, at some point, a move higher will have a negative impact
consumers, creators and advertisers. The acquisition of on this stock. It’s anyone’s guess where Verizon’s stock will be
Yahoo will put Verizon in a highly competitive position as when that day arrives.
a top global mobile media company, and help accelerate The other impact that higher rates may have is on the consid-
our revenue stream in digital advertising.” erable load of debt that Verizon carries. Because of its stable,
Assuming the Yahoo deal closes successfully, that’s now recurring cash flows, it can handle this load, and its maturity
$9.2 billion that Verizon has committed to its digital advertising schedule is nicely balanced. Still, this story is not without at
strategy. That’s a lot of money, but it’s peanuts compared to least a hint of financial risk.
Verizon’s total valuation. The real moneymaker continues to be It’s also important to emphasize that even though Verizon has
the company’s wireless business. well-established networks, both wireless and fixed, the sands
Moving forward, we’re going to look for Verizon to continue are constantly shifting under the telecommunications world.
making moves to protect its turf on the wireless network front. Consumption patterns are changing, the old landline business is
Wireless data traffic usage is growing rapidly and Verizon is one eroding, and competition—both on pricing and for investments
of the companies in prime position to get its fair share of profits like spectrum—continues to evolve. Though there’s no indica-
from this trend. As the owner of the best network in the United tion of this occurring, the company cannot become stagnant.
States, Verizon boasts bigger cash flow and deeper pockets with Resting on its laurels could result in a comeuppance.
which it can reinvest in the technologies of the future. Managed
correctly, Verizon could be a cash cow for many years to come.
Bottom Line
Digital advertising revenue is nice, but we want to see a focus First and foremost, this is a dividend stock, and should be
on the network, first and foremost. treated as such. In our mind, it’s one that can be socked away—
again, possibly in an RRSP—and essentially forget about for
Valuation the next 10 or more years. Harvest that 4.6% yield for now, and
when all is said and done, as the dividend grows over the next
Though the network stands to become more valuable over
decade as we expect that it will, the effective yield should be
the course of time, the sanctity of the dividend is probably the
considerably higher than that.
most prominent feature of Verizon as an investment. Because
of this, we can apply an old valuation technique known as the Dividend hikes are likely to result in a higher stock price,
“Gordon Growth Model” to assess the expectations and as- but that’s not the only way we see some capital appreciation
sumptions baked into Verizon’s stock at current levels. working its way into the mix. Verizon’s network could become
more valuable than anyone expects, and with an assortment of
At $2.31 per share and the stock priced at around $50 per
high-tech offerings in the stable, we could all be very pleasantly
share, according to the model and the reasonable assumptions surprised on this front. While there are risks associated with
we’ve made, the market does not appear to be pricing in any every company, based on its competitive position and the assets
future dividend growth. under its control, Verizon is better positioned than most to
Analysts expect 7% to 8% earnings growth out of Verizon handle whatever comes its way.

6 The Motley Fool Special Report — Winter 2017 fool.ca


ZCL Composites
ZCL Composites is the largest provider of fibreglass underground Headquarters Edmonton, Alberta
storage tanks in North America.
Website www.zcl.com
Why buy:
Industry Oil & Gas Equipment/Services
• Demand should remain healthy as the market continues to transition
from steel to fibreglass tanks. Volatility Medium
• Its strong competitive position should be sustainable. Market Cap USD$274
• Low capital requirements to run the business increases its ability to Cash/Debt $28.3/$0
increase its dividend payout in the future.
Revenue (TTM) $150.6
$50 Earnings (TTM) $9.6
$40 Total Inside Ownership 10.65%

$30
Recent Price CAD$12.17
Yield 2.7%
$20
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$10
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$0 Data as of November 25, 2016
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For long-term investors like us at Motley Fool Canada some- old steel tanks due to concerns surrounding the internal cor-
times boring businesses can make for great investments. This rosion of steel tanks. In fact, the U.S. EPA recently issued a
is especially true for those operating in niche industries with notice highlighting the risk associated with this corrosion. This
little in the way of competition. As investors we know boring provides ZCL a healthy replacement opportunity over the next
businesses have a way of flying under-the-radar in the market, 3 to 5 years. The company estimates that 15% to 20% of the
but they also can find themselves free of fierce competition. retail fuel tanks installed today are more than 30 years old and
This can result in solid long-term investment opportunities for 50% to 60% are older than 20 years.
Foolish investors. ZCL Composites (TSX:ZCL) is a good old
fashioned boring business offering investors a nice balance of Competition
upside potential and dividend yield.
As you’ll see in the graph below ZCL enjoys a distinct
ZCL Composites makes fiberglass reinforced storage tanks competitive advantage as the largest player in the market
used for underground fluid containment. The company’s core in North America. The company is the clear market leader
business involves the replacement of legacy steel fuel tanks for underground storage tanks in Canada with approx. 85%
at gas stations, convenience stores and truck stops. They also market share. In the U.S., ZCL is one of the top 2 manufac-
have a faster growing segment that serves the underground turers with around 50% market share. CSI Denali is the only
water storage market. Demand for its underground water tanks other fiberglass tank manufacturer of scale serving the North
typically comes from a diverse set of industries and is tied to American markets.
general construction activity. Estimated North American Petroleum UST Market Share
60%

ZCL’s fiberglass tanks are non-corrosive offering a much 50% ZCL


more suitable option than legacy steel tanks. They provide an
environmentally friendly option and also offer a longer life than 40%

steel tanks. The shift to fiberglass tanks is already underway 30%


CSI
as steel only represents around 15% of the new tanks sold in 20%

N. America today. Currently the company is benefitting from 10% Steel


strong demand in the U.S. as large retailers and convenience
0%
store chains expand and compete for market share. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

*Source: Company presentation


The replacement market also provides another strong
source of demand for the company. Steel tanks still make up The current relationships that ZCL enjoys with its current
around 50% of the installed base of tanks here in N. America. customers will make it very difficult for new entrants to compete
Increasingly companies are considering swapping out their out and gain market share. This is strengthened by the potential for

fool.ca Special Report — Winter 2017 The Motley Fool 7


expensive liabilities associated with an environmental damage can be painful for shareholders, in ZCL’s case it would likely
that could occur with a faulty underground tank. open up an even better buying opportunity.
The longer-term risk for ZCL is a loss of market share from
Dividend Rising their primary competitor or others that enter the market. The
During the first quarter of 2016 the company showed a sign company’s strong relationships with gas station chain operators
of confidence by paying shareholders a one-time special divi- should help alleviate this risk, but if ZCL starts losing market
dend of $0.50 per share or $15 million in total. The company share it could signal a reason to consider selling your shares.
also raised its quarterly dividend by 60% to $0.08 which puts
the stocks yield at 2.6%. This signals strength in demand for the Foolish Bottom Line
business and confidence in its ability to generate cash moving Besides being a nice boring business, ZCL has a number of
forward. With a strong balance sheet and relatively low capital qualities I look for in investments. I like the company’s clean
requirements I expect the company to continue rewarding balance sheet and commitment to return cash to shareholders;
shareholders with future dividend increases and the occasional strong competitive position; low capital requirements; healthy
special dividend. The company aims to payout around 50% of growth runway; and insiders own nearly 11% of the company.
funds from operations in dividends. There’s a lot to like in ZCL Composites.

Financials & Valuation


ZCL boasts a clean balance sheet with zero debt and $38 mil-
lion in cash. After paying its special dividend in the first quarter
the company’s cash balance dropped from $41 million to $23
million. By the end of the third quarter of this year the company
had recouped nearly all of that cash. This is primarily due to
the company’s ability to generate a healthy dose of free cash
flow from its operations. ZCL has been free cash flow positive
in each of the past five years, and 9 out of the past ten years.
The other aspect of the business that allows it generate positive
cash flow is the low capital requirements to run the business.
ZCL typically only spends 1% to 2% of revenue on capital
expenditures.
After ditching its aboveground storage tank business earlier
this year ZCL’s profit margins are set to improve. This was a
non-core, underperforming business that was suffering after the
rout in oil markets. Moving forward the company’s normalized
gross margins should shake out around 24% with operating
margins in 12% to 14% range.
I conservatively estimate the company should be able to
grow earnings and cash flow around 10% annually, on average,
for the next 3 to 5 years. With an enterprise value of $337 mil-
lion and $36 million in free cash flow over the trailing twelve
months the stock is reasonably priced. With an enterprise
value-to-free cash flow multiple of just 9 times investors could
be looking at annualized returns of at least 10% to 12%, and
that’s before accounting for the dividend payouts.

Risks
ZCL is a small hardware company without any meaningful
sources of recurring, consumables revenue. This means busi-
ness can be lumpy from quarter-to-quarter as customer orders
have the potential to get pushed into future periods. As many of
you already know the stock market can punish companies that
exhibit volatility from quarter-to-quarter. While the volatility

8 The Motley Fool Special Report — Winter 2017 fool.ca


Cash Kings: Three Top Dividend Stocks to Help Your Portfolio
Prosper in 2017 and Beyond

Want to find even more great dividend-paying stocks?


If so, here’s an exciting announcement from our General
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Everyone here is extremely excited about what we have to offer you, and we’ll be in touch the moment we have more
details to share.
Until then, please enjoy this report and have a great holiday season and prosperous New Year!
To making 2017 your most profitable year yet,

Brian Richards
General Manager
Motley Fool Global

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Disclosure: All figures as of November 25, 2016. All dollar amounts are represented in Canadian Dollars, unless otherwise
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