Analysis Start Date 1-Jan-16

S-Curve Distribution Steep (5)

Budget Item Amount Cash Flow Distribution Start Month Length

Acquisition $610,000 Manual Input 1 2
Hard costs $3,000,000 S-Curve 3 22
Soft Costs $300,000 Straight-Line 2 23
Tenant Improvements $250,000 S-Curve 21 4
Total $4,160,000

Construction Hard Costs S-Curve Distribution

Cumulative
$3,000,000
$2,750,000
$2,500,000
$2,250,000
$2,000,000
$1,750,000
$1,500,000
$1,250,000
$1,000,000
$750,000
$500,000
$250,000
$0
1-Jan-16 1-Apr-16 1-Jul-16 1-Oct-16 1-Jan-17 1-Apr-17 1-Jul-17 1-Oct-17
 Month Ending 31-Jan-16 29-Feb-16 31-Mar-16 30-Apr-16 31-May-16 30-Jun-16
End Month Month 1 2 3 4 5 6
2 OK $10,000 $600,000 $0 $0 $0 $0
24 OK $0 $0 $16,135 $26,986 $42,872 $64,694
24 OK $0 $13,043 $13,043 $13,043 $13,043 $13,043
24 OK $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Error Check $10,000 $613,043 $29,179 $40,030 $55,915 $77,737

Construction Hard Costs S-Curve Distribution

Monthly
$250,000
$225,000
$200,000
$175,000
$150,000
$125,000
$100,000
$75,000
$50,000
$25,000
$0
ct-17 1-Jan-16 1-Apr-16 1-Jul-16 1-Oct-16 1-Jan-17 1-Apr-17 1-Jul-17 1-Oct-17

Hard Costs - Cumulative $0 $0 $16,135 $43,122 $85,994 $150,687

31-Jul-16 31-Aug-16 30-Sep-16 31-Oct-16 30-Nov-16 31-Dec-16 31-Jan-17 28-Feb-17
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$92,730 $126,252 $163,274 $200,569 $234,030 $259,384 $273,074 $273,074
$13,043 $13,043 $13,043 $13,043 $13,043 $13,043 $13,043 $13,043
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$105,773 $139,295 $176,318 $213,612 $247,074 $272,428 $286,117 $286,117

$243,417 $369,669 $532,943 $733,512 $967,542 $1,226,926 $1,500,000 $1,773,074

31-Mar-17 30-Apr-17 31-May-17 30-Jun-17 31-Jul-17 31-Aug-17 30-Sep-17
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$259,384 $234,030 $200,569 $163,274 $126,252 $92,730 $64,694
$13,043 $13,043 $13,043 $13,043 $13,043 $13,043 $13,043
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $25,173
$272,428 $247,074 $213,612 $176,318 $139,295 $105,773 $102,910

$2,032,458 $2,266,488 $2,467,057 $2,630,331 $2,756,583 $2,849,313 $2,914,006

31-Oct-17 30-Nov-17 31-Dec-17
22 23 24
$0 $0 $0 OK
$42,872 $26,986 $16,135 OK
$13,043 $13,043 $13,043 OK
$99,827 $99,827 $25,173 OK
$155,743 $139,857 $54,351 OK

$2,956,878 $2,983,865 $3,000,000

Budget Item Amount Start Period End Period Months Timing
Acquisition $610,000 1-Jan-16 29-Feb-16 2 S-Curve
Hard costs $3,000,000 1-Mar-16 31-Dec-17 22 S-Curve
Soft Costs $300,000 1-Feb-16 31-Dec-17 23 S-Curve
Tenant Improvements $250,000 1-Sep-17 31-Dec-17 4 S-Curve
Source of Normal Distribution Formula: Ben Bulloch - http://www.mrexcel.com/forum/excel-questions/340723-cost-distribution
 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6
StDev Month Starting 1-Jan-16 1-Feb-16 1-Mar-16 1-Apr-16 1-May-16 1-Jun-16
0.4 $305,000 $305,000 $0 $0 $0 $0
4.4 $0 $0 $16,135 $26,986 $42,872 $64,694
4.6 $0 $1,524 $2,498 $3,907 $5,830 $8,298
0.8 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
uestions/340723-cost-distribution-based-bell-shaped-curve.html
 7 8 9 10 11 12
1-Jul-16 1-Aug-16 1-Sep-16 1-Oct-16 1-Nov-16 1-Dec-16
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$92,730 $126,252 $163,274 $200,569 $234,030 $259,384
$11,268 $14,598 $18,043 $21,274 $23,931 $25,682
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
1-Jan-17 1-Feb-17 1-Mar-17 1-Apr-17 1-May-17 1-Jun-17 1-Jul-17 1-Aug-17 1-Sep-17
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$273,074 $273,074 $259,384 $234,030 $200,569 $163,274 $126,252 $92,730 $64,694
$26,293 $25,682 $23,931 $21,274 $18,043 $14,598 $11,268 $8,298 $5,830
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $25,173
 22 23 24
1-Oct-17 1-Nov-17 1-Dec-17
$0 $0 $0
$42,872 $26,986 $16,135
$3,907 $2,498 $1,524
$99,827 $99,827 $25,173
Cash Flow Distribution S-Curve Distribution
Straight-Line Steep (5) 5
S-Curve Moderately Steep (4) 4
Manual Input Moderate (3) 3
Moderately Flat(2) 2
Flat (1) 1