Determining Conservation Status:

Methods for Estimating Animal

Species Populations

United Nations World Conservation Monitoring Centre

Evan Haithcock
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Contents
Abstract........................................................................................................2

The Difficulties of Estimating Species Populations.......................................2

Why a Census is Not an Option.................................................................2

Current and Future Methods of Population Estimation.................................3

Incomplete Counts.....................................................................................3

Mark-Recapture Methods..........................................................................4

Indirect Counts and Using Genetics in Ecology.........................................5

How Leeches and Other Blood Suckers Might Help Save Endangered
Animals.........................................................................................................6

The Advantages of Indirect Counting........................................................6

The Limitations of Indirect Counting..........................................................6

Conclusion....................................................................................................6

References...................................................................................................7

Figures
Figure 1 …………………………………………………………………………...4

Figure 2 …………………………………………………………………………...5

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Abstract
With climate change on the rise, much of the Earth’s natural habitats and biodiversity is being
damaged or irreversibly destroyed. According to the International Union for the Conservation of
Nature’s (IUCN) Red List—a comprehensive inventory of the conservation status of most
biological species—over 37,000 distinct species of organisms are threatened with extinction,
making up about 28% of all assessed species (IUCN Red List). And it is only getting worse. This
trend has led to the development of many different organizations that are advocating for these
endangered species, such as the World Wildlife Foundation (WWF), Conservation International
(CI), and the United Nation’s World Conservation Monitoring Centre, to name a few.

In order to aid these organizations in their classification of and advocacy for these endangered
species across the world, it is necessary to ensure that ecologists have as much information on
population trends as possible. However, determining the population size—meaning the number
of living organisms—of any given species is a notoriously hard problem, and while there are
many methods can accurately estimate population size, none of them are perfect. Despite this,
these imperfect methods provide invaluable data on shifts in population, and the development of
new, innovative techniques to collect this data needs to be a top priority for all conservation
scientists. This can be achieved primarily through the continued education of researchers, and it
is on the scientists themselves to make sure they are aware of the tools available to them.

The Difficulties of Estimating Species Populations

The US Geological Survey describes accounts of population size as “fundamental to wildlife
management” and the understanding of “ecosystem processes,” both of which are at the heart
of what a conservationist does (“Population Estimation”). In other words, the trends in
population sizes provide the most basic heuristic for determining if an ecosystem is at risk of
collapsing or not. Unfortunately, though, getting a count of ever species of animal on earth is
just as hard as it sounds.

Why a Census is Not an Option

Just as many countries around the world conduct censuses to look at the demographics of their
citizens, ecologists can also use a census to determine a given species’ population size. And
just like the political census, an ecological census of a given species is an exact count of every
living organism in that species (Powell). This is the obvious solution to determining the

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population size of a species: count everything in the population. However, while it is certainly
possible, even a census of one species in a small region can be both ecologically and financially
devastating (Powell).

The fundamental issue with a census is observability, which is defined as the percentage of a
total population that can be observed at all (“Counting Individuals”). An ecologist can’t just walk
through a forest and count every deer she sees; it’s impossible to know if she counted some
deer multiple times or if there were deer in the forest that she could not see. The observability of
any given species of animal anywhere on Earth is almost always less than 100% (“Counting
Individuals”) and attempts to improve this statistic can often put ecosystems and animals at risk
(Powell). Travelling to remote habitats and getting up close with endangered species disturbs
the ecosystem and could potentially hurt the animals being studied.

On top of this observability issue, censuses typically extremely expensive (Powell). Even very
small scale operations can require an outrageous amount of funding: money is not just being
spent on transporting biologists to locations of interest, it’s also paying for the device used to
capture the animals, all the devices used to mark the animals, the biologist’s salary, food, and
living quarters while on site, and so much more. For how difficult censuses are to complete and
how dangerous they can be to the habitat, the funding required is far too high.

Current and Future Methods of Population

Estimation
Even on small scales, a census is practically impossible to implement, let alone trying to
conduct a census on a global level. So, since an exact count of every animal on Earth is
unattainable, ecologists have had to use different, less precise methods to estimate populations.
There have been many innovative and creative techniques developed in the last century that
have made conservation efforts a much less daunting task, and with the advent of more
advanced computer technology, extrapolating population trends from smaller samples has
become cheaper, faster, and more reliable. There are three main categories of population
estimation techniques outside of the census.

Incomplete Counts
The most like the census, an incomplete count is a method in which a small part of a population
is counted and then extrapolated to the population at large (Powell). In other words, this

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functions as a census on a very small proportion of an ecosystem where observability is no
longer an issue. For example, one technique used to count deer in a forest involves placing a
grid over a map of a forest and using a random number generator to determine which 100m by
100m square will be sampled (see Figure 1) (Sutherland 21). A census is then done on the
entirety of this sample square and extrapolated to the population of the entire forest. While this
exact process of choosing the random sample can vary widely, incomplete counts all employ
some form of randomness to collect information from a sample population.

Mark-Recapture Methods
Perhaps the most widely used method type today, mark-recapture methods involve capturing a
random set of animals and marking all of them, and then coming back and following the same
procedure to randomly recapture more animals of the same species (Powell). On this second
capturing, the focus is on the number of animals that have a marking from the first capture, as
the proportion of recaptured specimens can then be used to estimate the total population of the
species. Unlike incomplete counts, there is not a lot of variation in the technique in which this
process is conducted. The only common variation demonstrated in this process is in the
markers themselves: some scientists insert simple plastic tags into the animals while others will
implant microchips to observe behaviors after the capturing (see Figure 2).

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Figure 2. A treefrog with a plastic tag inserted in its thigh (Waddle).

Indirect Counts and Using Genetics in Ecology

The third and final estimation technique is indirect counting. This method makes use of a variety
of different indicators that animals leave behind (e.g. fecal pellets, footprints, homes/dens, etc.)
to learn about the general trends of population size among certain species (Powell). There has
been a lot of recent development in this methodology thanks to the use of leeches. A team
gathered terrestrial leeches from a rainforest in Vietnam and analyzed the trace DNA remaining
from their last meal (Schnell). After this analysis, they found DNA from mammals that were
thought to be extinct or very rare (Schnell). This hints at the future of population estimation and
analysis; as genetic analysis equipment becomes progressively more advanced and accessible,
methods like this will become widely used by the public to examine the trends of population
sizes.

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How Leeches and Other Blood Suckers Might Help
Save Endangered Animals
All of these methods described above are effective because they lean heavily on mathematics
and statistics to ensure estimations are correct. On top of that, they are on the whole much
cheaper and less invasive than a census, leaning much more heavily on modern technology to
assist in making the process more effective. The mark-recapture method is a well-loved
alternative to a census and provides a lot of very accurate information. However, there is
currently a lot of innovation in indirect counting, particularly with the use of terrestrial leeches,
indicating that indirect counting methods may over take the mark-recapture methods in the near
future.

The Advantages of Indirect Counting

One of the main draws of indirect counting as a method of examining population trends is it’s
applicability to a variety of ecosystems. Leeches, for example live in nearly every rainforest and
marsh on the planet, meaning that the methodologies used by Schnell et al. are easily
extendable to studies in the Amazon, the Congo basin, and other areas rife with biodiversity.
And if leeches aren’t present, other blood suckers like tics and mosquitos may be able to serve
a similar purpose. Additionally, indirect counting is almost always the cheapest method. Rather
than requiring a lot of expensive equipment in the field, indirect testing typically only requires
sample collection outside of the lab.

The Limitations of Indirect Counting

The main issue of indirect counting is that, at the moment, it is mainly only used for examining
trends in population rather than directly estimating the population size like the other estimates
(Powell). With the advent of advanced genetic databases and complex data analysis, though,
indirect counting may be able to rival the other methods in its prediction capabilities. However,
there is a supreme lack of research surrounding these new methods, so there is a very long way
to go before leeches will be saving endangered species.

This is particularly limited in this case by the lack of research about leeches in general. Without
a thorough understanding of the biology of these creatures, it can be very difficult to use them in
a larger-scale study. This is generally the problem with a lot of estimation techniques: the
researchers do not know enough about specifics of the methodologies that go into the

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technique, which stunts the development of these new techniques. Training courses in
computer sciences and data analysis might be a way to remedy some of these issues. When
researchers become more familiar with every aspect of their techniques, they will be able to
apply much more energy towards innovation. Additionally, training in specific programs like the
genome database would make sure researchers are up to date with the current tools available
to this type of research.

Conclusion
As climate change continues to impact the environment, it is the job of scientists and
environmentalists to do what they can to prevent the extinction of any more species. It is on
their shoulders to innovate and fight for the environment, to collect data and prevent the
complete deterioration of this planet.Thankfully, by continuing to educate themselves on the
current biological data analysis techniques, ecologists will remain aware of the new tools they
can use in their studies and will be more likely to produce new research techniques. Ultimately,
It is on their shoulders to innovate and fight for the environment, to collect data and prevent the
complete deterioration of this planet.

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References
“Counting individuals.” Ecology Center, 05 Jan. 2021, https://www.ecologycenter.us/species-
richness/counting-individuals.html. Accessed 31 March 2021.

IUCN Red List. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature, 2021,
https://www.iucnredlist.org/. Accessed 31 March 2021.

“Population Estimation.” U.S. Geological Survey, 2021,

https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pwrc/science/population-estimation?qt-
science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects. Accessed 31 March 2021.

Powell, Roger. “Estimating Wildlife Populations.” Wildlife Management, North Carolina State U,
2007, https://projects.ncsu.edu/cals/course/fw353/Estimate.htm. Accessed 31 March
2021.

Schnell, Ida, et al. “Screening Mammal Biodiversity using DNA from leeches.” Current Biology,
vol. 22, no. 20, 23 Oct. 2012.

Sutherland, William. Ecological Census Techniques: A Handbook. 2nd ed., E-book, Cambridge
University Press, 2006.
http://www.ecolab.bas.bg/main/Members/snikolov/Sutherland_2006_Ecological_Census
_Techniques.pdf

Waddle, Hardin. “Capture-Mark-Recapture of Treefrogs at Bayou Teche National Wildlife

Refuge.” U.S. Geological Survey, 2017, https://www.usgs.gov/centers/wetland-and-
aquatic-research-center-warc/science/capture-mark-recapture-treefrogs-bayou?qt-
science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects. Accessed 31 March 2021.