Operations Plan

There are four fundamental prediction classifications: qualitative, time sequence,

cause and simulation. Data related to a past market may be used as a time series
study to forecast potential demand (Jacobs & Chase, 2014). There are several
components to the data used in the time series study, including seasonal, cyclical and
pattern factors. Causal projections suggest the demand is linked to any of the
fundamental environmental conditions. Models of simulation allow the forecaster to
make a set of decisions about the predicted situation. Techniques of quality and time
series forecasts are typically used in the preparation and management of supply
chains (Jacobs & Chase, 2014).
Forecasting time series is a method of mathematical foresight. Data collected over
time are measured to detect patterns. Data may be collected over any interval: time,
regular, weekly, monthly, annual, or longer. The time series consists of trend, cyclic,
seasonal and irregular elements. The pattern element relates to the incremental
transformation of the data over time. It is also seen to reflect the or diminishing
patterns as an up or downhill axis, respectively.
For one year or more, cyclical components lie below or above the norm. A cyclic
aspect is seen in the business cycle. In their recurring form, seasonal elements are
identical to cyclicals but appear during one year. One example in a seasonal case is
the annual rise in petrol rates during the summer driving season and the associated
drop during winter months. Random components occur and cannot be forecast
irregular (Young, 2016).
A network of food stores markets the Revolution Grille specialty food. It was
predicted to make mistakes during manufacturing and waste in recent years. The
data over the past four weeks indicates how many dozen salads were requested.
The Network of Food Stores Revolution Grille. Production is done on the previous
day for each day's orders. The output of Friday would help both sales of Saturday and
Sunday since it is closed on Saturday.
Where a commodity demand does not rise or decline quickly and without seasonal
features, a shifting average may be useful for eliminating unpredictable variations in
prediction (Jacobs & Chase, 2014). The theory is clearly to quantify the average
demand in the last few periods. The oldest period is removed in average any time a
new projection is produced and the newest period is used.
In certain situations, medium planning demand can be desired where monthly time
intervals may be more suitable, while a weekly outlook could be more fitting if the
prediction was used as a short-term decision on replenishing inventories.
Although the choice of the best time for the moving average is crucial, the number of
time periods used for the projection may also have a significant effect on the
precision of the projection. As the moveable average duration is shorter, with less
time and greater oscillation, the pattern is followed more closely (Jacobs & Chase,
2014). However, when it comes to labeling a pattern, a longer duration of time offers
a smoother answer.
 References
Jacobs, F.R. & Chase, R.B. (2014). Operations and supply chain management (14th
ed). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
Markgraf, B. (2016). What is strategic forecasting? from
http://smallbusiness.chron.com/strategic-forecasting-42245.html
Young, C. (2016). What are four primary forecasting techniques? from
http://smallbusiness.chron.com/four-primary-forecasting-techniques-4489.html