SET 1 – Items 6-20

II. PROBLEM SOLVING

Consider the following time series data:

TABLE 1.
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6
Value 18 13 16 11 17 14

Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the
following measures of forecast accuracy.

[Choices FOR ITEMS 6-8] a. 31.88 b. 20.8 c. 4.4

6. Mean Absolute Error

7. Mean Squared Error

8. Mean Absolute Percentage Error

9. What is the forecast for Week 7? a. 11 b. 17 c. 14

Develop a three – week moving average for the time series based on Table 1.

Week Time Series Forecast I Forecast Error I Squared Forecast

Value Error
1 18
2 13
3 16
4 11 (Item # 10.) (Item # 13.) (Item # 16.)
5 17 (Item # 11.) (Item # 14.) (Item # 17.)
6 14 (Item # 12.) (Item # 15.) (Item # 18.)
TOTAL = 35.67

[Choices FOR ITEMS 10-12] a. 13.33 b. 14.67 c. 15.67

[Choices FOR ITEMS 13-15] a. 0.67 b. 3.67 c. 4.67

[Choices FOR ITEMS 16-18] a. 0.44 b. 13.44 c. 21.78

19. What is the Mean Squared Error (MSE)? a. 10.54 b. 11.89 c. 12.04

20. What is the forecast for Week 7? a. 12 b. 13 c. 14