Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

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Chapter 8
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Solutions:

1. The following table shows the calculations for parts (a), (b), and (c).

Absolute Absolute
Value of Squared Value of
Time Series Forecast Forecast Forecast Percentage Percentage
Week Value Forecast Error Error Error Error Error
1 18
2 13 18 -5 5 25 -38.46 38.46
3 16 13 3 3 9 18.75 18.75
4 11 16 -5 5 25 -45.45 45.45
5 17 11 6 6 36 35.29 35.29
6 14 17 -3 3 9 -21.43 21.43
Totals 22 104 -51.30 159.38

a. MAE = 22/5 = 4.4

b. MSE = 104/5 = 20.8

8-1
 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

c. MAPE = 159.38/5 = 31.88

d. The forecast for week 7 is ŷ7 = y6 = 14.

2. The following table shows the calculations for parts (a), (b), and (c).

Absolute Absolute
Value of Squared Value of
Time Series Forecast Forecast Forecast Percentage Percentage
Week Value Forecast Error Error Error Error Error
1 18
2 13 18.00 -5.00 5.00 25.00 -38.46 38.46
3 16 15.50 0.50 0.50 0.25 3.13 3.13
4 11 15.67 -4.67 4.67 21.81 -42.45 42.45
5 17 14.50 2.50 2.50 6.25 14.71 14.71
6 14 15.00 -1.00 1.00 1.00 -7.14 7.14
Totals 13.67 54.31 -70.21 105.86

a. MAE = 13.67/5 = 2.73

b. MSE = 54.31/5 = 10.86

c. MAPE = 105.89/5 = 21.18

d. The forecast for week 7 is ŷ7 = (y1 + y2 + y3 + y4 + y5 + y6) / 6 = (18 + 13 + 16 + 11 + 17 + 14) / 6 =

14.83.

3. The following table shows the measures of forecast error for both methods.

Exercise 1 Exercise 2
MAE 4.40 2.73
MSE 20.80 10.86
MAPE 31.88 21.18

For each measure of forecast accuracy the average of all the historical data provided more accurate
forecasts than simply using the most recent value.

4. a.

Squared
Time Series Forecast Forecast
Month Value Forecast Error Error
1 24
2 13 24 -11 121
3 20 13 7 49
4 12 20 -8 64
5 19 12 7 49

8-2
 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

6 23 19 4 16
7 15 23 -8 64
Total 363

MSE = 363/6 = 60.5

The forecast for month 8 is ŷ8 = y7 = 15.

b.

Squared
Time Series Forecast Forecast
Week Value Forecast Error Error
1 24
2 13 24.00 -11.00 121.00
3 20 18.50 1.50 2.25
4 12 19.00 -7.00 49.00
5 19 17.25 1.75 3.06
6 23 17.60 5.40 29.16
7 15 18.50 -3.50 12.25
Total 216.72

MSE = 216.72/6 = 36.12

Forecast for month 8 is ŷ8 = (y1 + y2 + y3 + y4 + y5 + y6 + y7) / 7 = (24 + 13 + 20 + 12 + 19 + 23 +
15) / 7 = 18.

c. The average of all the previous values is better because MSE is smaller.

5. a.

8-3
 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

20

18

16

14
Time Series Value

12

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Week (t)
The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern.

b. Three-week moving average.

Squared
Time Series Forecast Forecast
Week Value Forecast Error Error
1 18
2 13
3 16
4 11 15.67 -4.67 21.78
5 17 13.33 3.67 13.44
6 14 14.67 -0.67 0.44
Total 35.67

MSE = 35.67/3 = 11.89

The forecast for week 7 is ŷ7 = (y4 + y5 + y6) / 3 = (11 + 17 + 14) / 3 = 14.

c. Smoothing constant  = 0.2

Squared
Time Series Forecast Forecast
Week Value Forecast Error Error
1 18
2 13 18.00 -5.00 25.00
3 16 17.00 -1.00 1.00

8-4
 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

4 11 16.80 -5.80 33.64

5 17 15.64 1.36 1.85
6 14 15.91 -1.91 3.66
Total 65.15

MSE = 65.15/5 = 13.03

The forecast for week 7 is ŷ7 = y6 + (1-) ŷ6 = 0.2(14) + (1 - 0.2)15.91 = 15.53.

d. The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE.

e. Several values of  will yield an MSE smaller than the MSE associated with  = 0.2. The table below
shows the resulting MSE from several different  .that you select.

 MSE
0.1 15.04
0.2 13.03
0.3 12.20
0.4 12.09
0.5 12.47
0.6 13.25
0.7 14.41

The value of  that yields the minimum MSE is  = 0.368, which yields an MSE of 12.06.

= 0.368
Squared
Time Series Forecast Forecast
Week Value Forecast Error Error
1 18
2 13 18 -5.00 25.00
3 16 16.16 -0.16 0.03
4 11 16.10 -5.10 26.03
5 17 14.23 2.77 7.69
6 14 15.25 -1.25 1.55
Total 60.30
MSE =
60.30/5= 12.06

6. a.

8-5
 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

30

25

Time Series Value 20

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Week (t)

The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern.

b. Three-week moving average.

Squared
Time Series Forecast Forecast
Week Value Forecast Error Error
1 24
2 13
3 20
4 12 19.00 -7.00 49.00
5 19 15.00 4.00 16.00
6 23 17.00 6.00 36.00
7 15 18.00 -3.00 9.00
Total 110.00

MSE = 110/4 = 27.5.

The forecast for week 8 is ŷ8 = (y5 + y6 + y7) / 3 = (19 + 23 + 15) / 3 = 19.

c. Smoothing constant  = 0.2

Squared
Time Series Forecast Forecast
Week Value Forecast Error Error
1 24
2 13 24.00 -11.00 121.00
3 20 21.80 -1.80 3.24

8-6
 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

4 12 21.44 -9.44 89.11

5 19 19.55 -0.55 0.30
6 23 19.44 3.56 12.66
7 15 20.15 -5.15 26.56
Total 252.87

MSE = 252.87/6 = 42.15

The forecast for week 8 is ŷ8 = y7 + (1-) ŷ7 =0.2(15) + (1 - 0.2)20.15 = 19.12.

d. The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE.

e. Several values of  will yield an MSE smaller than the MSE associated with  = 0.2. The table below
shows the resulting MSE for several different  values.

 MSE
0.1 48.86
0.2 42.15
0.3 39.85
0.4 39.79
0.5 41.02
0.6 43.18
0.7 46.15

The value of  that yields the minimum MSE is  = 0.351, which yields an MSE of 39.61.

= 0.351

Squared
Time Series Forecast Forecast
Month Value Forecast Error Error
1 24
2 13 24 -11.00 121.00
3 20 20.13 -0.13 0.02
4 12 20.09 -8.09 65.40
5 19 17.25 1.75 3.08
6 23 17.86 5.14 26.40
7 15 19.67 -4.67 21.79
Total 237.69

MSE = 237.69/6 = 39.61428577

7. a. Four and Five -week moving averages.

8-7
 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

4 Period 5 period
Moving Moving
Week Sales Average Average
1 17
2 21
3 19
4 23
5 18 20.00
6 16 20.25 19.60
7 20 19.00 19.40
8 18 19.25 19.20
9 22 18.00 19.00
10 20 19.00 18.80
11 15 20.00 19.20
12 22 18.75 19.00

b. The MSE for the four-week and five-week moving averages.

For the four-week moving average:

Time Squared
Series Forecast Forecast
Week Value Forecast Error Error
1 17
2 21
3 19
4 23
5 18 20.00 -2.00 4.0000
6 16 20.25 -4.25 18.0625
7 20 19.00 1.00 1.0000
8 18 19.25 -1.25 1.5625
9 22 18.00 4.00 16.0000
10 20 19.00 1.00 1.0000
11 15 20.00 -5.00 25.0000
12 22 18.75 3.25 10.5625
Total 77.1875

MSE = 77.1875/8 = 9.648

For the five-week moving average:

Time Squared
Series Forecast Forecast
Week Value Forecast Error Error
1 17
2 21

8-8
 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

3 19
4 23
5 18
6 16 19.60 -3.60 12.96
7 20 19.40 0.60 0.36
8 18 19.20 -1.20 1.44
9 22 19.00 3.00 9.00
10 20 18.80 1.20 1.44
11 15 19.20 -4.20 17.64
12 22 19.00 3.00 9.00
Total 51.84

MSE = 51.84/7 = 7.406

c. The MSE for the moving average forecasts are:

three week 27.500

four week 9.648
five week 7.406

Using the MSE as our standard, the best number of weeks of past data to use in the moving average
computation is five.

8. a. Exponential smoothing forecasts using α = 0.1:

Time Squared
Series Forecast Forecast
Week Value Forecast Error Error
1 17 17.00
2 21 17.00 4.00 16.00
3 19 17.40 1.60 2.56
4 23 17.56 5.44 29.59
5 18 18.10 -0.10 0.01
6 16 18.09 -2.09 4.38
7 20 17.88 2.12 4.48
8 18 18.10 -0.10 0.01
9 22 18.09 3.91 15.32
10 20 18.48 1.52 2.32
11 15 18.63 -3.63 13.18
12 22 18.27 3.73 13.94
Total 101.78

MSE = 101.78/11 = 9.253

For a smoothing constant of α = 0.2:

8-9
 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Time Squared
Series Forecast Forecast
Week Value Forecast Error Error
1 17 17.00
2 21 17.00 4.00 16.00
3 19 17.80 1.20 1.44
4 23 18.04 4.96 24.60
5 18 19.03 -1.03 1.07
6 16 18.83 -2.83 7.98
7 20 18.26 1.74 3.03
8 18 18.61 -0.61 0.37
9 22 18.49 3.51 12.34
10 20 19.19 0.81 0.66
11 15 19.35 -4.35 18.94
12 22 18.48 3.52 12.38
Total 98.80

MSE = 98.80 / 11 = 8.982

Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, a smoothing constant of α = 0.2 produces a smaller
MSE and so is preferred.

b. For a smoothing constant of α = 0.1:

Time Absolute
Series Forecast Forecast
Week Value Forecast Error Error
1 17 17.00
2 21 17.00 4.00 4.00
3 19 17.40 1.60 1.60
4 23 17.56 5.44 5.44
5 18 18.10 -0.10 0.10
6 16 18.09 -2.09 2.09
7 20 17.88 2.12 2.12
8 18 18.10 -0.10 0.10
9 22 18.09 3.91 3.91
10 20 18.48 1.52 1.52
11 15 18.63 -3.63 3.63
12 22 18.27 3.73 3.73
Total 28.25

MAE = 28.25 / 11 = 2.568

For a smoothing constant of α = 0.2:

8 - 10
 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Time Absolute
Series Forecast Forecast
Week Value Forecast Error Error
1 17 17.00
2 21 17.00 4.00 4.00
3 19 17.80 1.20 1.20
4 23 18.04 4.96 4.96
5 18 19.03 -1.03 1.03
6 16 18.83 -2.83 2.83
7 20 18.26 1.74 1.74
8 18 18.61 -0.61 0.61
9 22 18.49 3.51 3.51
10 20 19.19 0.81 0.81
11 15 19.35 -4.35 4.35
12 22 18.48 3.52 3.52
Total 28.56

MAE = 28.56 / 11 = 2.596

Applying the MAE measure of forecast accuracy, a smoothing constant of α = 0.1 produces a slightly
smaller MAE and so is preferred.

c. For a smoothing constant of α = 0.1:

Time Absolute Value of

Series Forecast 100*(Forecast Error/ 100*(Forecast Error/
Week Value Forecast Error Time Series Value) Time Series Value)
1 17 17.00
2 21 17.00 4.00 19.05 19.05
3 19 17.40 1.60 8.42 8.42
4 23 17.56 5.44 23.65 23.65
5 18 18.10 -0.10 -0.58 0.58
6 16 18.09 -2.09 -13.09 13.09
7 20 17.88 2.12 10.58 10.58
8 18 18.10 -0.10 -0.53 0.53
9 22 18.09 3.91 17.79 17.79
10 20 18.48 1.52 7.61 7.61
11 15 18.63 -3.63 -24.20 24.20
12 22 18.27 3.73 16.97 16.97
Total 142.46

MAPE = 142.46 / 11 = 12.95

For a smoothing constant of α = 0.2:

8 - 11
 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Time Absolute Value of

Series Forecast 100*(Forecast Error/ 100*(Forecast Error/
Week Value Forecast Error Time Series Value) Time Series Value)
1 17 17.00
2 21 17.00 4.00 19.05 19.05
3 19 17.80 1.20 6.32 6.32
4 23 18.04 4.96 21.57 21.57
5 18 19.03 -1.03 -5.73 5.73
6 16 18.83 -2.83 -17.66 17.66
7 20 18.26 1.74 8.70 8.70
8 18 18.61 -0.61 -3.38 3.38
9 22 18.49 3.51 15.97 15.97
10 20 19.19 0.81 4.05 4.05
11 15 19.35 -4.35 -29.01 29.01
12 22 18.48 3.52 15.99 15.99
Total 147.43

MAPE = 147.43 / 11 = 13.40

Applying the MAPE measure of forecast accuracy, a smoothing constant of α = 0.1 produces a smaller
MAPE and so is preferred.

9. a. ŷ13 = 0.2y12 + 0.16y11 + 0.64(0.2y10 + 0.8 ŷ10 )

= 0.2y12 + 0.16y11 + 0.128y10 + 0.512 ŷ10
ŷ13 = 0.2y12 + 0.16y11 + 0.128y10 + 0.512(0.2y9 + 0.8 ŷ9 )
= 0.2y12 + 0.16y11 + 0.128y10 + 0.1024y9 + 0.4096 ŷ9
ŷ13 = 0.2y12 + 0.16y11 + 0.128y10 + 0.1024y9 + 0.4096(0.2y8 + 0.8 ŷ8 )
= 0.2y12 + 0.16y11 + 0.128y10 + 0.1024y9 + 0.08192y8 + 0.32768 ŷ8

b. The more recent data receive the greater weight or importance in determining the forecast. The moving
averages method weights the last n data values equally in determining the forecast.

10. a.

8 - 12
 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

3400

3200

3000

Sales Volumne 2800

2600

2400

2200

2000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Week

The time series plot indicates a horizontal pattern.

b.
Squared Value
Sales Forecast of Forecast
Week Volume Forecast Error Error
1 2750
2 3100 2750.00 350.000 122,500.00
3 3250 2890.00 360.000 129,600.00
4 2800 3034.00 -234.000 54,756.00
5 2900 2940.40 -40.400 1,632.16
6 3050 2924.24 125.760 15,815.58
7 3300 2974.54 325.456 105,921.61
8 3100 3104.73 -4.726 22.34
9 2950 3102.84 -152.836 23,358.79
10 3000 3041.70 -41.702 1,739.02
11 3200 3025.02 174.979 30,617.68
12 3150 3095.01 54.987 3,023.62
Total 488,986.80

Note: MSE = 488,986.80/11 = 44,453

Forecast for week 13 is ŷ13 = y12 + (1-) ŷ12 = 0.4(3150) + 0.6(3095.01) = 3117.01 or 3117 half-
gallons of milk.

11. a.

8 - 13
 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

90

% of Shipments received on time

85

80

75
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern.

b. For the three month moving average:

Time Square
Series Forecast Forecast
Month Value Forecast Error Error
1 80
2 82
3 84
4 83 82.00 1.00 1.00
5 83 83.00 0.00 0.00
6 84 83.33 0.67 0.44
7 85 83.33 1.67 2.78
8 84 84.00 0.00 0.00
9 82 84.33 -2.33 5.44
10 83 83.67 -0.67 0.44
11 84 83.00 1.00 1.00
12 83 83.00 0.00 0.00
Total 11.11

MSE = 11.11 / 9 = 1.235

8 - 14
 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

For the exponential smoothing forecast for α = 0.2:

Time Square
Series Forecast Forecast
Month Value Forecast Error Error
1 80 80.00
2 82 80.00 2.00 4.00
3 84 80.40 3.60 12.96
4 83 81.12 1.88 3.53
5 83 81.50 1.50 2.26
6 84 81.80 2.20 4.85
7 85 82.24 2.76 7.63
8 84 82.79 1.21 1.46
9 82 83.03 -1.03 1.06
10 83 82.83 0.17 0.03
11 84 82.86 1.14 1.30
12 83 83.09 -0.09 0.01
15.35 39.11

MSE = 39.80 / 11 = 3.555

Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, a three-month moving average produces a smaller
MSE and so is preferred.

c. Using a three-month moving average, the forecast for next month (t = 13) is
ŷ13 = (y10 + y11 + y12) / 3 = (83 + 84 + 83) / 3 = 83.33.

8 - 15
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
the western part) of the plain of Esdraelon is meant; compare 1
Chronicles x. 7, note.

²³And the archers shot at king Josiah; and the

king said to his servants, Have me away; for I
am sore wounded.
23. the archers shot] Compare the death of Ahab, xviii. 33. 1
Esdras i. 29, “the princes came down against king Josias,” is an
inferior reading due probably to a misreading of the Hebrew.

for I am sore wounded] The very words ascribed to Ahab (xviii.

33), and further the verb rendered I am wounded is used only in
these two passages: a singularly strong witness to the view that the
present story has been influenced by that of Ahab’s death.

²⁴So his servants took him out of the chariot,

and put him in the second chariot that he had,
and brought him to Jerusalem; and he died,
and was buried in the sepulchres of his
fathers. And all Judah and Jerusalem
mourned for Josiah.
24. the second chariot] War chariots were small, with (apparently)
only standing room for their occupants; see the illustrations of
Egyptian and Assyrian chariots given in the Encyclopedia Biblia i.
724‒730. This “second chariot” was probably of a larger kind,
suitable for travelling.

25 (= 1 Esdras i. 32; not in 2 Kings).

The Lamentations for Josiah.

²⁵And Jeremiah lamented for Josiah: and all

the singing men and singing women spake of
 Josiah in their lamentations, unto this day; and
they made them an ordinance in Israel: and,
behold, they are written in the lamentations.
25. lamented] i.e. “composed (or uttered) an elegy.” The Hebrew
word (ķōnēn) suggests formal composition, and the actual words of
lamentation are often given, as in 2 Samuel i. 17 ff., iii. 33, 34;
Ezekiel xxvii. 33, xxxii. 2, 16. The elegy in question is not preserved
in the book of Jeremiah or elsewhere. Doubtless the Chronicler or
his source had real grounds for his statement about the popular
Songs of Lament for Josiah, and we may suppose that one of these,
rightly or wrongly, was ascribed to Jeremiah.

an ordinance] compare 2 Samuel i. 18.

in the lamentations] In some lost work, not in our canonical book

of the Lamentations, for the contents of the canonical book lend no
support whatever to the view that it is referred to here (see further
Encyclopedia Britannica¹¹, s.v. Lamentations, p. 128).

26, 27 (= 1 Esdras i. 33; 2 Kings xxiii. 25, 28).

The Epilogue to Josiah’s Reign.

²⁶Now the rest of the acts of Josiah, and his

good deeds, according to that which is written
in the law of the Lord, ²⁷and his acts, first and
last, behold, they are written in the book of the
kings of Israel and Judah.
26. according to that which is written] Compare the strong terms
used in 2 Kings xxiii. 25, “like unto him was there no king before him,
that turned to the Lord with all his heart ... according to all the law of
Moses; neither after him arose there any like him.”
 Chapter XXXVI.
1‒4 (= 1 Esdras i. 34‒38; 2 Kings xxiii. 30b‒34).
The Reign of Jehoahaz.

¹Then the people of the land took Jehoahaz

the son of Josiah, and made him king in his
father’s stead in Jerusalem.
1. the people of the land took] Compare xxvi. 1, xxxiii. 25.

Jehoahaz] Called “Shallum” in 1 Chronicles iii. 15; Jeremiah xxii.

11. He was younger than Jehoiakim; verse 5.

²Joahaz was twenty and three years old when

he began to reign; and he reigned three
months in Jerusalem.
2. in Jerusalem] His mother’s name is here omitted; compare
xxxiii. 1, 21, xxxiv. 1. According to 2 Kings xxiii. 32 (compare Ezekiel
xix. 3, 4) Jehoahaz “did evil.”

³And the king of Egypt deposed him at

Jerusalem, and amerced the land in an
hundred talents of silver and a talent of gold.
3. deposed him at Jerusalem] The clause answers to 2 Kings
xxiii. 33, “put him in bands at Riblah in the land of Hamath, that he
might not reign in Jerusalem.” Perhaps we should read the same
words in Chronicles The Hebrew words for “deposed” and “put in
bands” are liable to be easily confused.

amerced] Authorized Version condemned. For “amerce” in the

sense of “fine,” compare Deuteronomy xxii. 19; and for “condemn” in
the same sense see Amos ii. 8 (Authorized Version, “fined” Revised
Version).

an hundred talents of silver and a talent of gold] The land was

poorer than in the days when Sennacherib had imposed a fine on
Hezekiah of “three hundred talents of silver and thirty talents of gold”
(2 Kings xviii. 14).

⁴And the king of Egypt made Eliakim his

brother king over Judah and Jerusalem, and
changed his name to Jehoiakim. And Neco
took Joahaz his brother, and carried him to
Egypt.
4. changed his name to Jehoiakim] This name is compounded
with the Divine name Jehovah. Probably Neco made the new king
swear fealty by Jehovah, and then declared his official name to be
Jehoiakim, in order that he and his people might have something to
remind them of the oath he had taken. (Eliakim = “God establishes”;
Jehoiakim = “Jehovah establishes.”) The rendering of this verse in 1
i. 38 is due to misreadings of the Hebrew.

took Joahaz ... to Egypt] He died in Egypt; 2 Kings xxiii. 34;

Jeremiah xxii. 12.

5‒8 (= 1 Esdras i. 39‒42; 2 Kings xxiii. 36‒xxiv. 6).

The Reign of Jehoiakim.

⁵Jehoiakim was twenty and five years old

when he began to reign; and he reigned
 eleven years in Jerusalem: and he did that
which was evil in the sight of the Lord his
God.
5. and he reigned eleven years] So also in Kings. The statement,
however, is lacking in 1 Esdras i. 39, so that it is a highly probable
inference that the text of Chronicles has here been harmonised with
Kings; compare verse 15, and Introduction § 3, p. xxii.

in Jerusalem] The Chronicler omits his mother’s name (compare

verse 2, note) and also the statement that he raised the indemnity
imposed by Neco by means of a poll-tax (2 Kings xxiii. 35).

he did that which was evil] Compare 2 Kings xxiii. 37; Jeremiah
xxii. 13‒18, xxvi. 20‒23, xxxvi. 1‒32.

⁶Against him came up Nebuchadnezzar king

of Babylon, and bound him in fetters, to carry
him to Babylon.
6. Nebuchadnezzar] The correct form of his name is
“Nebuchadrezzar” (so generally in Jeremiah and Ezekiel); in the
inscriptions Nabu-kudurri-uṣur. The name is Assyrian and means “O
Nebo, defend the crown” (or “the boundary”), Nebo being a god who
was regarded as the son of Marduk, the chief god of Babylon
(compare Isaiah xlvi. 1). Nebuchadrezzar reigned from 604‒561
b.c., and was succeeded by Evil-Merodach (Amil-Marduk). The only
purely historical inscription relating to his reign deals with a
campaign in Egypt in 568 b.c.; compare Jeremiah xliii. 11.

came up] It seems probable that Nebuchadrezzar did not in

person come up against Jerusalem at the end of Jehoiakim’s reign,
nor in person carry off any of the sacred vessels; it is likely moreover
that Jehoiakim was not carried to Babylon. The result of Jehoiakim’s
rebellion against Nebuchadrezzar was according to 2 Kings simply
that “bands” of Chaldeans and their allies invaded Judah. Probably
Jehoiakim’s life and reign came to an end (how we do not know;
compare Jeremiah xxii. 18, 19) during this petty warfare, and then
three months later, the main Chaldean army under Nebuchadrezzar
having arrived, Jerusalem was taken, and Jehoiakim’s son and
successor Jehoiachin was carried off with the golden vessels of the
house of the Lord to Babylon. The Chronicler seems to foreshorten
the history at this point.

⁷Nebuchadnezzar also carried of the vessels

of the house of the Lord to Babylon, and put
them in his temple ¹ at Babylon.
¹ Or, palace.

7. of the vessels] There is no mention in 2 Kings of the removal of

sacred vessels during Jehoiakim’s reign. Some were carried off
under Jehoiachin, the rest under Zedekiah; 2 Kings xxiv. 13, xxv. 13‒
17. Compare last note.

in his temple] So LXX.; 1 Esdras i. 39 [41]; Daniel i. 2. Note the

margin, “in his palace.” The Hebrew word (heykāl) is a loan-word;
the original (ikallu) is the ordinary word in Assyrio-Babylonian for
“palace.”

⁸Now the rest of the acts of Jehoiakim, and his

abominations which he did, and that which
was found in ¹ him, behold, they are written in
the book of the kings of Israel and Judah: and
Jehoiachin ² his son reigned in his stead.
¹ Or, against.

² In 1 Chronicles iii. 16, Jeconiah. In Jeremiah xxii. 24, Coniah.

 8. that which was found in him] i.e. his sin (in this context);
compare 1 Kings xiv. 13.

of Israel and Judah] The LXX. (but not 1 Esdras) adds here “And
Jehoiakim slept with his fathers, and was buried in the garden of
Uzza with his fathers.”

9, 10 (= 1 Esdras i. 43‒45; compare 2 Kings xxiv. 8‒17).

The Reign of Jehoiachin.

The account given in 2 Kings contains much that is not given in

Chronicles and, in particular, many details of the first captivity of
Judah.

⁹Jehoiachin was eight ¹ years old when he

began to reign; and he reigned three months
and ten days in Jerusalem: and he did that
which was evil in the sight of the Lord.
¹ In 2 Kings xxiv. 8, eighteen.

9. Jehoiachin] Called “Jeconiah,” 1 Chronicles iii. 16, where see

note.

eight years] So LXX. (B) of Chronicles and Esdras (B); but the
number is probably corrupt for eighteen, so LXX. (A) of Chronicles
and Esdras (A) and Hebrew and LXX. of 2 Kings xxiv. 8. It is
possible that the words “and ten days” in the latter part of the verse
are a misplaced fragment of an original ben shĕmōneh ‘esreh
shānāh, i.e. “eighteen years old.”

in Jerusalem] The Chronicler here omits the king’s mother’s

name (compare verse 2, note), though she was a person of some
influence; compare 2 Kings xxiv. 12; Jeremiah xxii. 24‒26; and
perhaps Jeremiah xiii. 18 (Revised Version).
 he did that which was evil] Compare Jeremiah xxii. 24; Ezekiel
xix. 5‒9.

¹⁰And at the return of the year king

Nebuchadnezzar sent, and brought him to
Babylon, with the goodly vessels of the house
of the Lord, and made Zedekiah his brother
king over Judah and Jerusalem.
10. at the return of the year] Compare 2 Samuel xi. 1 = 1
Chronicles xx. 1, “at the return of the year, at the time when kings go
out to battle.” This would be in the spring.

brought him to Babylon] Not the king only, but also certain
leading men and craftsmen and smiths (in number 3023) went into
captivity—so Jeremiah lii. 28; compare Jeremiah xxiv. 1, and 2 Kings
xxiv. 14 (where the size of the deportation is magnified into “all
Jerusalem save the poorest of the land—even ten thousand
captives”).

Zedekiah] A covenant-name like “Jehoiakim”—(verse 4, note); it

seems to mean “Righteousness of Jehovah”; compare the significant
title in Jeremiah xxiii. 6, “The Lord is our Righteousness.”
Zedekiah’s original name was “Mattaniah” (i.e. “gift of Jehovah”); 2
Kings xxiv. 17.

his brother] In 2 Kings (more accurately) “his father’s brother”;

compare 1 Chronicles iii. 15, 16, notes.

11‒19 (= 1 Esdras i. 46‒56; compare 2 Kings xxiv. 18‒xxv. 21;

Jeremiah xxxvii. 1‒xxxix. 8, lii. 1‒27).
Reign of Zedekiah. Destruction of Jerusalem.

¹¹Zedekiah was twenty and one years old

when he began to reign; and he reigned
 eleven years in Jerusalem:
11. in Jerusalem] The Chronicler omits, as usual, his mother’s
name. She was “Hamutal, the daughter of Jeremiah of Libnah” (2
Kings xxiv. 18), and was mother of Jehoahaz also (2 Kings xxiii. 31).
Jehoiakim was by a different mother (2 Kings xxiii. verse 36).

¹²and he did that which was evil in the sight of

the Lord his God; he humbled not himself
before Jeremiah the prophet speaking from
the mouth of the Lord.
12. humbled not himself] Jeremiah consistently advised Zedekiah
to submit to the Chaldeans; but the king partly through fear of his
princes, partly through illusive hopes, could never bring himself to do
so; compare Jeremiah xxi. 1‒7, xxxiv. 8‒22, xxxvii. 1‒10, 17, xxxviii.
17‒23.

¹³And he also rebelled against king

Nebuchadnezzar, who had made him swear
by God: but he stiffened his neck, and
hardened ¹ his heart from turning unto the
Lord, the God of Israel.
¹ Hebrew strengthened.

13. who had made him swear by God] Compare Ezekiel xvii. 11‒
19.

¹⁴Moreover all the chiefs of the priests, and the

people, trespassed very greatly after all the
abominations of the heathen; and they
 polluted the house of the Lord which he had
hallowed in Jerusalem.
14. polluted the house] Jeremiah vii. 9‒11, xxiii. 11‒14; Ezekiel
viii. 5‒16.

¹⁵And the Lord, the God of their fathers, sent

to them by his messengers, rising up early
and sending; because he had compassion on
his people, and on his dwelling place:
15. rising up early and sending] The words are absent from 1
Esdras i. 50, and are perhaps a late addition to Chronicles derived
from Jeremiah; compare Jeremiah xxvi. 5. See note on verse 5
above.

¹⁶but they mocked the messengers of God,

and despised his words, and scoffed at his
prophets, until the wrath of the Lord arose
against his people, till there was no remedy ¹.
¹ Hebrew healing.

16. mocked the messengers] Jeremiah was imprisoned, beaten,

and threatened with death, Urijah (Jeremiah xxvi. 20‒23) was put to
death. Of the fate of Habakkuk (who probably lived during the
Chaldean period, Habakkuk i. 6) nothing is known.

¹⁷Therefore he brought upon them the king of

the Chaldeans, who slew their young men with
the sword in the house of their sanctuary, and
had no compassion upon young man or
 maiden, old man or ancient: he gave them all
into his hand.
17. Chaldeans] Their name in Hebrew is Casdim and in Assyrio-
Babylonian Caldu (the change of “s” for “l” before a dental is not
uncommon in the latter language). They were a people originally
living south of Babylon on the sea, but Nabopolassar, father of
Nebuchadrezzar, conquered Babylon and established a Chaldeo-
Babylonian Empire.

in the house of their sanctuary] Compare Ezekiel’s vision of the

slaughter; Ezekiel ix. 1‒11.

¹⁸And all the vessels of the house of God,

great and small, and the treasures of the
house of the Lord, and the treasures of the
king, and of his princes; all these he brought
to Babylon.
18. all the vessels] i.e. all the vessels which remained after the
previous spoliation (verse 10). They were perhaps chiefly of brass;
compare 2 Kings xxv. 13‒15.

¹⁹And they burnt the house of God, and brake

down the wall of Jerusalem, and burnt all the
palaces thereof with fire, and destroyed all the
goodly vessels thereof.
19. brake down the wall] The Hebrew verb here used (nittēç)
implies a more thorough breaking down than the pāraṣ of xxv. 23
(see note), xxvi. 6.

20, 21 (= 1 Esdras i. 57, 58).

The Captivity.
 ²⁰And them that had escaped from the sword
carried he away to Babylon; and they were
servants to him and his sons until the reign of
the kingdom of Persia:
20. to him and his sons] Compare Jeremiah xxvii. 7. There were
three kings of Babylon after Nebuchadrezzar before Cyrus
established Persian rule, viz. Evil-Merodach (Amil-Marduk) (2 Kings
xxv. 27), Neriglissar (Nergalšar-uṣur), and Nabonidus (Nabu-na’id).
The last two kings were usurpers. Neriglissar was (it seems) son-in-
law to Nebuchadrezzar (Hommel, Babylonia in Hastings’ Dictionary
of the Bible, 1. 229a, or Sayce in Encyclopedia Britannica¹¹, iii. pp.
105, 106). Whether Nabonidus was connected with the royal house
is not known.

²¹to fulfil the word of the Lord by the mouth of

Jeremiah, until the land had enjoyed her
sabbaths: for as long as she lay desolate she
kept sabbath, to fulfil threescore and ten
years.
21. by the mouth of Jeremiah] Compare Jeremiah xxv. 11, xxix.
10.

her sabbaths] i.e. years, occurring every seventh year, when the
land was to be allowed a respite from cultivation; compare Leviticus
xxv. 1‒7, xxvi. 34, 35.

threescore and ten years] i.e. two whole generations. It is

probable that the Chronicler intended to suggest that the Sabbatical
years had been neglected throughout the period (about 490 = 70 × 7
years) during which the kingdom lasted; but, if so, he treats the point
somewhat loosely, not troubling about the objection that the reigns of
the several God-fearing kings (David, Solomon, Jehoshaphat) would
need to be subtracted from this total, and that actually the number of
violated Sabbatical years would fall considerably below 70.

22, 23 (= Ezra i. 1‒3a] 1 Esdras ii. 1‒5a).

Cyrus Decrees the Rebuilding of the Temple.

These verses are obviously inappropriate as the conclusion of

Chronicles, and their proper place is as the opening words of the
book of Ezra, where also they are given. Their exposition properly
belongs to the commentaries on Ezra or Esdras, to which
accordingly the reader must be referred for fuller notes. These
verses were retained here when the separation of Ezra‒Nehemiah
from Chronicles was made (see Introduction, § 2), either through
mere accident, or perhaps to indicate that Chronicles had originally
formed one work with Ezra and Nehemiah, but most probably in
order to avoid a depressing termination to the book. This last point
carries no small weight in view of the fact that in the Hebrew Bible
Chronicles is the last book. It is interesting to note that to avoid
closing the book of Isaiah with the terrible verse (lxvi. 24) which is
actually its conclusion, it was customary to repeat after verse 24
some hopeful words taken from verse 23. Compare also the last
verses of 2 Kings.

²²Now in the first year of Cyrus ¹ king of

Persia, that the word of the Lord by the
mouth of Jeremiah might be accomplished,
the Lord stirred up the spirit of Cyrus king of
Persia, that he made a proclamation
throughout all his kingdom, and put it also in
writing, saying,
¹ Hebrew Coresh.

22. Cyrus king of Persia] Cyrus, the Persian, was at first king of a
small state in Elam, to the east of Babylonia. In 549 b.c. he
conquered the king of the Medes, and so became founder of the
Medo-Persian Empire. In 546 b.c. he overthrew the famous
Croesus, king of Lydia, and advancing against Babylon entered it
after a short and easy campaign in 538 b.c.—a career of meteoric
brilliance. By his “first year” is meant 537 b.c., his first year as ruler
of the Babylonian Empire.

stirred up the spirit] Compare 1 Chronicles v. 26; Haggai i. 14.

made a proclamation] compare xxx. 5. The phrase is

characteristic of the Chronicler.

²³Thus saith Cyrus king of Persia, All the

kingdoms of the earth hath the Lord, the God
of heaven, given me; and he hath charged me
to build him an house in Jerusalem, which is in
Judah. Whosoever there is among you of all
his people, the Lord his God be with him, and
let him go up.
23. All the kingdoms of the earth] The king of Babylon bore the
title of “king of the four quarters of the world.” Cyrus succeeded to
this title on his conquest of Babylon.

let him go up] i.e. to Jerusalem; compare Ezra i. 3. Since

Chronicles is the last book according to the order of the Hebrew
Canon, these encouraging words conclude the Hebrew Bible.
 INDEX
Abiathar,
39 f., 102, 120, 142, 167
Abib,
339
Abijah,
218 ff.
Abimelech (Ahimelech),
102, 120, 142
addīrīm,
273
Adullam, the cave of,
81, 88, 211
Adversary, the, see Satan
Ahab,
240 ff.
Ahaz,
292 ff.
Ahaziah (Jehoahaz),
263 ff., 284
Akaba, the Gulf of,
202
Alamoth, set to,
104
Alexander the Great,
xv, xix, xlix, 4
Algum trees,
174, 204
Aliens in Israel,
98, 120, 134, 173, 176, 312
Altar of incense, the,
139, 162, 185, 289
Altar-pillars,
83, 224, 313
Amaziah,
279 ff.
Ambushment,
223, 254
Amen,
111, 115
Amerce,
346
Ammon, Ammonites,
121, 125 f., 249, 291 f.
Amon, King of Judah,
329
Anachronisms,
164 f., 261
Anathoth,
84
Angel,
130 f.
Antonia, the Tower of,
163
Apes,
206
Arabians,
1, 238, 287;
invasion by, 226, 262 f.
Aram (= Syria),
9, 17, 119, 122
Aramaic,
9, 321
Ariel,
83
Ark, the,
94 ff., 101 ff., 186 ff., 339
Armourbearer,
74
Asa,
223 ff.
Asaph,
42 ff., 103, 107, 112, 145, 188
Ascent of the sepulchres, the,
324
Ashdod,
287
Asherim (Ashērah, Ashērim, Ashēroth),
224, 231, 237, 247, 277, 313, 320, 325 f., 331
Ashtaroth (Ashtoreth),
49, 75
Asshur-bani-pal,
6, 317, 327
Assyria, Assyrians,
8 f., 297 ff., 316 ff., 327
Assyrian monuments,
122, 206, 317, 320, 327
Athaliah,
266 ff.
Attent (= attentive),
194
Augury,
325
‘azārāh,
184, 250 f.
Azariah, another name for Uzziah,
23, 285
Azariah the prophet,
li, 228 ff.

Baal (Baalim), use and disuse of the title,

22, 31, 59, 63, 180, 236, 275;
the house of, 272;
altars of, 325, 331
Babylon,
327;
kings of, 351
Bädeker, Palestine, referred to,
32, 34, 47, 50, 57, 96, 99, 119 f., 150, 199, 211, 231 ff.,
250, 264, 266, 287, 291, 297 f., 318, 320, 323
Balsam trees,
100
bāmōth,
231, 320
bānāh,
211
Barnes, W. E., referred to,
lx;
(in Expositor), 78, 81;
(in Expository Times), 118;
(on Kings), 172, 185, 240, 285, 293, 322;
(in Journal of Theological Studies), 180
Bashan,
35
Bath (a measure for liquids),
175, 182
Bearers,
173, 176
Beauty of holiness,
110, 254
Beer-sheba to Dan,
128, 308
bĕgādim,
335
Belial, sons of,
219
Ben-hadad,
233
Benzinger, I., referred to,
xxxiii, 238, 307
Beracah, valley of,
255
Beth-Dagon,
75
Beth-el,
57, 222
Beth-horon,
 49, 199
Beth-shean (Beth-shan),
58, 75
Beth-shemesh,
47, 283, 298
Bezalel,
17, 170
bīrāh, bīrāniyyōth,
163, 238
Bliss, Dr, Excavations at Jerusalem,
318 f.
Boaz,
180
Book of the law, see Law
Brasen altar, the,
180 f., 196, 201
Brasen sea, the, see Sea
Brass,
118
Brook of Egypt,
196
Brother (= fellow-tribesman),
88
Burning for the dead,
235, 263
Burning of the dead,
76
Burnt offerings,
106, 141, 195, 306, 313