Ukuran Statistik Standar

 Rata-rata Kesalahan (Mean Error)

n
ME   ei / n
i 1

 Rata-rata Kesalahan Absolut (Mean

Absolut Error)
n
MAE   ei / n
i 1

 Jumlah kuadrat kesalahan (Sum of Squared

Error)
n
SSE   ei 2
i 1

 Rata-rata Kesalahan kuadrat

n
MSE   ei 2 / n
i 1

 Deviasi Standar Kesalahan (Standart

deviation of error)

SDE   ei /(n  1) 2
 Ukuran-ukuran relatif

 Kesalahan Persentase (percentage error)

 Xt  Ft 
PEt   100
 Xt 

 Rata-rata kesalahan persentase (Mean Percentage Error)

n
MPE   PEi / n
i 1

 Rata-rata kesalahan persentase absolut (Mean Absolute

Percentage Error)

n
MAPE   PEi / n
i 1
Contoh perhitungan ukuran statistik

Periode Observasi Ramalan Kesalahan Kesalahan Absolut Kesalahan Kuadrat

i Xi Fi Xi – Fi |Xi – FI| ( X i – F i )2
1 22 24 -2 2 4
2 23 28 -5 5 25
3 39 32 7 7 49
4 37 36 1 1 1
5 38 40 -2 2 4
6 47 44 3 3 9
7 43 48 -5 5 25
8 49 52 -3 3 9
9 61 56 5 5 25
10 63 60 3 3 9
Jumlah 2 36 160

e i = X i - Fi

ME = 2/10 = 0,2
MAE= 36/10 = 3,6
SSE = 160
MSE = 160/10= 16

160
SDE   4,22
(10  1)

Contoh perhitungan ukuran relatif

Periode Observasi Ramalan Kesalahan PE APE

i Xi Fi Xi – Fi (Xi – Fi)/Xi x 100 | Xi – Fi |/Xi x 100
1 22 24 -2 -9,09 -9,09
2 23 28 -5 -21,74 -21,74
3 39 32 7 17,95 17,95
4 37 36 1 2,70 2,70
5 38 40 -2 -5,26 -5,26
6 47 44 3 6,38 6,38
7 43 48 -5 -11,63 -11,63
8 49 52 -3 -6,12 -6,12
9 61 56 5 8,20 8,20
10 63 60 3 4,76 4,76
Jumlah 2 -13,85 93,84

APE = kesalahan persentase absolut (absolute percentage error)

MPE = -13,85/10 = -1,385 %

MAPE = 93,84/10 = 9,384 %