TECHNICAL NOTES

Genetic Programming to Predict Bridge Pier Scour

H. Md. Azamathulla, M.ASCE1; Aminuddin Ab Ghani2; Nor Azazi Zakaria3; and Aytac Guven4
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Abstract: Bridge-pier scour is a significant problem for the safety of bridges. Extensive laboratory and field studies have been conducted
examining the effect of relevant variables. This note presents an alternative to the conventional regression-based equations 共HEC-18 and
regression equation developed by the writers兲, in the form of artificial neural networks 共ANNs兲 and genetic programming 共GP兲. There had
been 398 data sets of field measurements that were collected from published literature and were used to train the network or evolve the
program. The developed network and evolved programs were validated by using the observations that were not involved in the training.
The performance of GP was found more effective when compared to regression equations and ANNs in predicting the scour depth at
bridge piers.
DOI: 10.1061/共ASCE兲HY.1943-7900.0000133
CE Database subject headings: Bridges; Piers; Computer programming; Neural networks; Scour.
Author keywords: Bridge pier; Genetic programming; Artificial neural networks; Local scour; Radial basis function.

Introduction
The presence of a bridge pier in a channel may cause an abrupt
change in the approach flow velocity, which may result in local
scour at piers. The failure of Black Mount bridge in New Zealand
was a result of undermining of its piers in a riverbed 共Melville
and Coleman 2000兲. The mechanism of flow around a pier struc-
ture is so complicated that it is difficult to establish a general
empirical model to predict the scour depth ds. A reliable estima-
tion of ds is of paramount importance in safe, economic, and
technically sound bridge pier design. Most prediction formulas
for ds available in the literature have been developed using con-
ventional regression methods. Johnson 共1995兲 reported that the
Melville and Sutherland formula tends to overpredict ds to greater
extent than any other formulae. Recently, Mohamed et al. 共2005兲
showed that the Laursen and Toch 共1956兲 and the Colorado State
University 共CSU兲 formulas 共Mohamed et al. 2005兲 give reason-
able estimates, while the Melville and Sutherland 共1988兲 and Jain
and Fischer 共1980兲 formulas overpredict pier scour based on the
1
Senior Lecturer, River Engineering and Urban Drainage Research
Centre 共REDAC兲, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Engineering Campus, Ni-
bong Tebal, Pulau Pinang 14300, Malaysia 共corresponding author兲.
E-mail: redacazamath@eng.usm.my
2
Professor and Deputy Director, REDAC, Universiti Sains Malaysia,
Engineering Campus, Nibong Tebal, Pulau Pinang 14300, Malaysia.
E-mail: redac02@eng.usm.my
3
Professor and Director, REDAC, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Engi-
neering Campus, Nibong Tebal, Pulau Pinang 14300, Malaysia. E-mail:
redac01@eng.usm.my
4
Assistant Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of Gaziantep,
Gaziantep 27310, Turkey, E-mail: aguven@gantep.edu.tr
Note. This manuscript was submitted on June 6, 2008; approved on
July 7, 2009; published online on July 13, 2009. Discussion period open
until August 1, 2010; separate discussions must be submitted for indi-
vidual papers. This technical note is part of the Journal of Hydraulic
Engineering, Vol. 136, No. 3, March 1, 2010. ©ASCE, ISSN 0733-9429/
2010/3-165–169/$25.00.
comparison of some bridge pier scour formulae using field and
laboratory data.
Alternative fitting approaches such as artificial neural net-
works 共ANNs兲 共Lee et al. 2007兲 and adaptive neurofuzzy infer-
ence system 共Bateni et al. 2007兲 have been recently shown to
yield effective estimates of ds. ANNs have been reported to pro-
vide reasonably good solutions for hydraulic engineering prob-
lems, in cases of highly nonlinear and complex relationship
among the input-output pairs in corresponding data 共Azmathullah
et al. 2005, 2008兲.
The objective of this study is to predict ds using genetic pro-
gramming 共GP兲. The performance of the proposed GP model is
compared with a standard radial basis function 共RBF兲 neural net-
work and conventional regression-based equations. The explicit
formulation of the GP model is also presented.
Local Scour Problem around a Pier
The equilibrium scour depth ds around a circular pier in a steady
flow over a bed of uniform, spherical, and noncohesive sediment
depends on numerous groups of variables characterizing flow,
sediment characteristics, and pier geometry. Extensive field data
sets were obtained for the model developments in this study from
Landers and Mueller 共1999兲 共384 sets of data兲 and Mohamed et
al. 共2005兲 共14 sets of data兲. Table 1 summarizes the ranges of field
data available such as pier width 共b兲, length of pier 共L兲, flow
velocity 共V兲, flow depth 共y兲, mean diameter of bed material 共d50兲,
and standard deviation bed grain size 共␴兲.
Neural Network Model
ANNs provide a random mapping between an input and an output
vector, typically consisting of three layers of neurons, namely,
input, hidden, and output, with each neuron acting as an indepen-
dent computational element. Neural networks derive their

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J. Hydraul. Eng., 2010, 136(3): 165-169

 Table 1. Ranges of Field Data 共Landers and Mueller 1999; Mohamed et al. 2005兲
Minimum Median Maximum
Variables Training Testing Training Testing Training Testing
b 共m兲 0.290 8.991 1.065 10.44 4.574 11.89
L 共m兲 2.440 0.610 7.545 0.870 27.43 1.130
V 共m/s兲 0.152 1.550 1.765 1.565 4.480 1.580
y 共m兲 0.122 1.550 4.525 2.405 13.472 3.260
d50 共m兲 0.00012 0.050 0.054 0.021 0.108 0.037
␴ 1.30 2.0 1.650 3.450 12.100 4.900
ds 共m兲
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0.0 0.370 0.565 0.385 7.650 0.400

Fr 0.033 0.031 0.268 0.268 0.834 0.726
d50 / y 2.38⫻ 10−8 3.28⫻ 10−8 1.17⫻ 10−5 7.28⫻ 10−6 0.000157 0.000143
b/y 0.0439 0.0727 0.2224 0.4587 8.6667 1.326
L/y 0.62 1.219 1.905 5.214 91.4 27.174
ds / y 0.0 0.028 0.122 0.122 3.467 0.830

strengths from the high degree of freedom associated with their
architecture. Prior to application, the network is trained to observe
data sets. This feeds the network with input and output pairs and
determines the values of connection weights, bias, or centers. The
training may require many epochs 共presentation of complete data
sets once to the network兲, being carried out until the training sum
Banzhaf 2001兲. An operand or an operator of an instruction is
changed by mutation into another symbol over the same set.
The fitness of a GP individual may be computed by using the
equation
N

of squares error reaches a specified error goal. Concepts involved f= 兺 共兩X j − Y j兩兲 共1兲
behind these training schemes are outlined in the ASCE Task j=1

Committee 共2000兲. A neural network toolbox contained within the
MATLAB package was used in this study. The usual feed-forward
type of network was trained using RBFs. Out of the total of 398
input-output pairs, about 75% 共300 sets兲, were selected randomly
and were used for training, whereas the remaining 25% 共98 sets兲
were employed for testing. As dictated by the use of Gaussian
function, all patterns were normalized within the range of 共0.0,
1.0兲 before their use. The RBF network 共five inputs, 36 hidden
neurons, and one output兲 was trained by using various values of
spread 共␣兲 between 0 and 1. The value of 0.01 was selected as it
yielded the best performance for the training data.
GP
GP, a branch of the genetic algorithm 共Holland 1975兲, is a method
for learning the most “fit” computer programs by means of arti-
ficial evolution 共Johari et al. 2006兲. GP initializes a population
consisting of the random members known as chromosomes 共indi-
vidual兲, and the fitness of each chromosome is evaluated with
respect to a target value. The principle of Darwinian natural se-
lection is used to select and reproduce “fitter” programs. GP cre-
ates equal or unequal length computer programs that consist of
variables 共terminal兲 and several mathematical operators 共function兲
sets as the solution. The function set of the system can be com-
posed of arithmetic operations 共+ , − , / , ⴱ兲 and function calls 共such
as 兵ex , x , sin, cos, tan, log, sqrt, ln, power其兲. Each function implic-
itly includes an assignment to a variable, which facilitates the use
of multiple program outputs in GP, whereas in tree-based GP
those side effects need to be incorporated explicitly 共Brameier
and Banzhaf 2001兲.
The present GP utilizes a two-point string crossover. A seg-
ment of random position and random length is selected in both
parents and exchanged between them. If one of the resulting chil-
dren would exceed the maximum length, crossover is abandoned
and restarted by exchanging equalized segments 共Brameier and
where X j = value returned by a chromosome for the fitness case j
and Y j = expected value for the fitness case j.
In GP, the maximum size of the program is usually restricted
to avoid overgrowing programs without bounds 共Brameier and
Banzhaf 2001兲. This configuration has been tested for the pro-
posed GP model and has been found sufficient. The best indi-
vidual 共program兲 of a trained GP can be converted into a
functional representation by successive replacements of variables
starting with the last effective instruction 共Oltean and Groşan
2003兲.
To date, the application of GP in hydraulic engineering has
been limited. Davidson et al. 共1999兲 and Babovic and Keijzer
共2000兲 determined empirical relationships for the friction in tur-
bulent pipe flow and the additional resistance to flow induced by
flexible vegetation, respectively. Keijzer and Babovic 共2002兲 de-
rived empirical equations using real-world hydraulic data, Gius-
tolisi 共2004兲 determined Chezy resistance coefficient in
corrugated channels, Kizhisseri et al. 共2005兲 explored a better
correlation between the temporal pattern of flow field and sedi-
ment transport by using numerical model results and field data,
and Guven and Gunal 共2008a兲 predicted local scour downstream
of grade-control structures.
GP Modeling of Pier Scour
The equilibrium local scour depth 共ds兲 around bridge piers is in-
fluenced by the variables characterizing the flow, bed sediment,
and pier geometry. The following relationship describes the equi-
librium scour depth as a function of its independent parameters:
ds = f共V,y,d50,␴,b,L,g兲 共2兲
where g = acceleration due to gravity.
From previous experience 共Azmathullah et al. 2005; Guven
and Gunal 2008b兲, grouped nondimensional variables produced

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J. Hydraul. Eng., 2010, 136(3): 165-169

 Table 2. Parameters of the Optimized GP Model Table 3. Sensitivity Analysis for Independent Parameters for the Testing
Set
Parameter Description of parameter Setting of parameter
AE
p1 Function set + , − , ⴱ , / , 冑, power
Model RMSE 共%兲 R2
p2 Population size 250
p3 Mutation frequency 共%兲 96 ds / y = f共Fr , b / y , L / y , d50 / y , ␴兲 0.045 ⫺13.766 0.823
p4 Crossover frequency 共%兲 50 ds / y = f共Fr , b / y , L / y , d50 / y兲 0.063 ⫺21.678 0.543
p5 Number of replication 10 ds / y = f共Fr , b / y , L / y , ␴兲 0.062 ⫺37.674 0.662
p6 Block mutation rate 共%兲 30 ds / y = f共Fr , b / y , d50 / y , ␴兲 0.059 ⫺13.472 0.712
p7 Instruction mutation rate 共%兲 30 ds / y = f共Fr , L / y , d50 / y , ␴兲 0.056 ⫺30.566 0.522
p8 Instruction data mutation rate 共%兲 40 ds / y = f共b / y , L / y , d50 / y , ␴兲 0.066 ⫺478.456 0.712
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p9 Homologous crossover 共%兲 95

p10 Program size Initial 64, maximum 256

good results. The following relationship describes scour depth
normalized with flow depth 共ds / y兲 in terms of dimensionless pa-
rameters
ds/y = f共Fr,b/y,d50/y,L/y,␴兲
During model developments in this study, the normalized scour
depth 共ds / y兲 is selected as output and the five dimensionless pa-
rameters in Eq. 共3兲 as inputs.
In this study, four basic arithmetic operators 共+ , − , ⴱ , /兲 and
some basic mathematical functions 共冑, x2, and power兲 were used.
A large number of generations 共5,000兲 were tested. First, the
maximum size of each program was specified as 256, starting
with 64 instructions for the initial program. The functional set and
operational parameters used in GP modeling during this study are
listed in Table 2.
The simplified analytic form of the proposed GP model may
be expressed as
␦=
兺 兩Y − X兩 100 共9兲
兺X
where x = 共X − X̄兲; y = 共Y − Ȳ兲; X = observed values; X̄ = mean of X;
共3兲 Y = predicted value; Ȳ = mean of Y; and n = number of samples.
First, an attempt was made to assess the significance or influ-
ence of each input parameter on ds / y. Table 3 compares the GP
models, with one of the independent parameters removed in each
case, and deleting any independent parameter from the input set
yielded larger RMSE and lower R2 values. These five independent
parameters have non-negligible influence on ds / y and so the func-
tional relationship given in Eq. 共3兲 is used for GP modeling in this
study.
The GP approach resulted in highly nonlinear relationship be-
tween ds / y and the input parameters with high accuracy and rela-
tively low error. The testing performance of the proposed GP
model revealed a high generalization capacity with R2 = 0.824 and

冋再冉冋 册 冊 冎
RMSE= 0.046 and AE= −13.54%.
共1 − T2兲2共L/y 兲0.5 2 2 2
ds/y = 共d50/y 兲−0.5 − 2.36 + T2 + Fr −1
共d50/y 兲␴2

册
Regression Model Results
0.5
− b/y − 1 共4兲
A new nonlinear regression equation was derived by using the
same data sets used earlier for training the neural network and GP
where
modeling. The least-squares fit to those observations gave the

冤 冥
共Fr − 0.224兲 2
following expression:
+ Fr − b/y − 0.739

冉 冊 冉冊 冉冊
L/y 0.042 −0.28 −0.37
T=2 + 共Fr − 0.224兲 共5兲 ds d50 b L
d50/y = 1.82 Fr0.42␴−0.031 59 共10兲
y y y y
Eq. 共10兲 was compared to the pier scour equation recommended
by Federal Highway Administration’s Hydraulic Engineering Cir-
Training and Testing Results of GP Modeling cular 共HEC-18兲 共Mohamed et al. 2005兲
The performance of GP in training and testing sets is validated in
terms of the common statistical measures R2 共coefficient of deter-
mination兲, root-mean-square error 共RMSE兲, average error 共AE兲,
ds
y
= 2.1
b
y
冉冊 0.65
Fr0.43 共11兲

and average absolute deviation ␦ which is intended to yield conservative estimates. Eq. 共10兲 was

冉 冊
derived from laboratory data by researchers at CSU 共Mohamed et
兺 xy
2
al. 2005兲.
2
共6兲
冑兺 x 2 兺 y 2
R =

冋 册
Analysis and Results
兺 共X − Y兲2
1/2

RMSE = 共7兲 Fig. 1 shows results of predictions of ds / y for the test data that
n
were not involved in the calibration of the models for GP, RBF,
and HEC-18-based equation, 关Eq. 共11兲兴 as well as the regression
X−Y
兺 X
100 equation developed by the writers 关Eq. 共10兲兴. Fig. 1 shows the
performance of the GP compared to RBF, HEC-18, and regression
AE = 共8兲
n equation. An excellent prediction, made by the GP, can be ob-

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J. Hydraul. Eng., 2010, 136(3): 165-169


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Fig. 1. Comparison of GP, ANN, HEC-18, and regression model
served. The HEC-18 formula resulted in large errors compared to
all other approaches. This is quantitatively reflected in all statis-
tical measures, R2, RMSE, AE, and ␦ 共Table 4兲.
Comparisons of performance based on scatter plots and error
statistics revealed that the prediction accuracy of the present GP
model is generally comparable to the ANN-RBF model. The GP
model has lower absolute error as compared to the ANN-RBF
model 共see performance of regression equations in Table 4兲. For
engineering applications, the average percentage errors reflected
in the statistic “␦” could be more attractive, indicating better ac-
ceptability of the GP.
Referring to Fig. 1 and Table 4, especially, GP outperforms in
high-value predictions 共ds / y ⬎ 0.2兲, as reflected in lower RMSE
共0.094兲 and higher R2 共0.746兲, compared to ANN-RBF 共R2
= 0.467 and RMSE= 0.167兲, and the regression-based equations
关R2 = 0.119 and RMSE= 0.380 for HEC-18 Eq. 共11兲; and R2
= 0.313 and RMSE= 0.189 for Eq. 共10兲兴. It should be noted that
these error measures are more sensitive to errors at larger local
scour depth observations. An almost perfect agreement with the
observed small values 共ds / y ⱕ 0.2兲 and GP predictions is clearly
seen in Fig. 1. In accord with Johnson 共1995兲, it was observed
that HEC-18 overpredicted ds / y to a greater extent than other
models, but it should be noted that HEC-18 was deliberately con-
structed as a design equation to over predict 共Mohamed et al.
Table 4. Comparison of Predicted and Observed Scour Depths for the Testing Set
Method Coefficient of determination R2
Predictions to observed ds / y for testing set
GP 0.819
RBF 0.691
Eq. 共10兲 共writers兲 0.539
Eq. 共11兲 共HEC-18兲 0.425
Predictions to observed ds / y ⬎ 0.2 for testing set
GP 0.746
RBF 0.467
Eq. 共10兲 共writers兲 0.313
Eq. 共11兲 共HEC-18兲 0.119
168 / JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING © ASCE / MARCH 2010
J. Hydraul. Eng., 2010, 136(3): 165-169
2005兲. In general, the performance of GP was superior to other
methods while the performance of Eq. 共9兲, derived by the writers,
was comparable to that of ANN-RBF.
The superior performance of GP, compared to other methods,
is attributed to the powerful artificial intelligence techniques for
computer learning inspired by natural evolution to find the appro-
priate mathematical model 共expression兲 to fit a set of points. GP
employs a population of functional expressions and also numeri-
cal constants, based on how closely they fit to the corresponding
data 共Koza 1992兲. Although ANNs have the capability to model
complex, nonlinear processes without having to assume the form
of the relationship between input and output variables, the meth-
odology is governed by many and fixed mathematical functions
共e.g., sigmoidal or hyperbolic functions兲 and various learning al-
gorithms, which need to be identified a priori 共Haykin 1999兲.
Because previous studies for scour predictions 共Azmathulla et
al. 2005; Guven and Gunal 2008a,b兲 have already reported supe-
rior performance of the ANN and GP models compared to the
traditional statistical regression schemes, adoption of these soft
computing tools can be advocated for regular use, although con-
ventional regression may be easier to apply. With the advance-
ments in computer hardware and software, the application of soft
tools should not pose problems in even routine applications. The
pier scour software could be made available by an E-mail request
to the first writer.
Conclusions
The preceding sections described an application of the relatively
new soft computing approach of GP to predict the local bridge
pier scour depth. A GP and an ANN-RBF model were developed
to predict the values of relative scour depth from the field mea-
surements.
The developed GP model predicted scour that is fairly accurate
and comparable with the earlier works based on ANNs, and su-
perior to HEC-18 Eq. 共11兲 and regression Eq. 共10兲 developed by
the writers. If the expected AE is selected as a criterion, the re-
sults of the GP method appeared more attractive to employ.
Acknowledgments
The first three writers express their sincere gratitude to Universiti
Sains Malaysia for funding a short-term grant to conduct this
AE
RMSE 共%兲 Average absolute deviation ␦
0.048 ⫺13.660 26.262
0.105 ⫺59.450 43.513
0.106 ⫺17.702 38.282
0.271 ⫺174.055 113.497
0.094 9.586 19.578
0.167 14.781 27.987
0.189 20.74 34.89
0.380 ⫺97.060 81.874
 on-going research 共Grant No. 304.PREREDAC.6035262兲. The
writers thank Robert D Jarrett, U.S. Geological Survey 共USGS兲,
for his suggestions in preparation of this manuscript and also
reviews.
Notation
The following symbols are used in this technical note:
b ⫽ pier width 共m兲;
ds ⫽ scour depth 共m兲;
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d50 ⫽ bed material mean diameter 共m兲;
Fr ⫽ Froude number 关=V / 共gy兲0.5兴;
g ⫽ acceleration due to gravity 共m / s2兲;
L ⫽ length of pier 共m兲;
V ⫽ flow velocity 共m/s兲;
y ⫽ flow depth 共m兲; and
␴ ⫽ standard deviation bed grain size.
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