Chapter 5: Exponential Functions and Equations

Modeling Pandemics

On December 31, 2019, health authorities in

China reported an outbreak of a pneumonia-like
sickness to the World Health Organization, noting
that many of the ill had visited an animal market
in Wuhan. On January 21, the first confirmed case
of this sickness, a novel “coronavirus,” was
confirmed in the U.S. As of August 28, 2020,
5,845,876 cases of COVID 19 have been
confirmed in the U.S. (180,163 deaths), with
24,794,113 cases worldwide (838,547 deaths). http://meridian.in.ua/news/50546.html

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In 1927 William Kermack and Anderson McKendrick formally introduced a new method for
modeling infectious diseases, based on the relationships between the number of susceptible
(not yet infected), infected, and recovered (and presumably immune) people in a fixed
population; this model, a major step towards an understanding of epidemic progression,
became known as the "SIR model." Though modern epidemic modeling is far more
sophisticated and often utilizes many more variables, current models still rely on the findings of
Kermack and McKendrick. The graph below represents a more sophisticated mathematical
model predicting the progression of COVID 19 in Italy, divided into different sub-groups (ND:
undiagnosed cases of COVID, D: diagnosed cases AS: asymptomatic cases, S: symptomatic
cases, IC: cases involving life-threatening symptoms).
 Chapter 5: Exponential Functions and Equations

Question 1: What observations do you have about the graph and its shape? How are the graphs
of the different sub-groups similar (and different)? Why might the disease progress in the
manner represented by the graph (consider the shape of the graph)?

Question 2: Consider the first ~25 days of the "Infected ND AS line" (dark blue). What kind of
graph/function does this section of the model appear to resemble? Do the beginnings of the
other lines share this quality? Consider the spread of viral illnesses such as COVID 19; why
might the disease initially progress in this way?
 Chapter 5: Exponential Functions and Equations

As the models above suggest, the spread of an

epidemic begins in an exponential manner.
Whether or not an outbreak continues to grow
depends on a measurement known as the
"basic reproductive number," indicated as R₀,
which tells how many people on average a
person with the illness will infect in an
otherwise susceptible population. If R₀ is
greater than 1, the epidemic will continue to
grow exponentially.

Question 1: Initially on January 31, 2020, 2 cases of COVID 19 were found in Italy after 2
Chinese tourists in Rome tested positive for the virus. Eventually, an initial basic reproductive
number was estimated to be 2.38. According to the CDC, the average person who contracts the
virus will remain contagious for roughly 10 days after the onset of symptoms. With this
information in mind, write and graph an exponential function to estimate the development of
the total cases in Italy with respect to time. Assume that a person's level of social interaction
remain consistent over the 10 days of contagion.

Question 2: Compare your graph to the actual graph of the data below (use the link, if
accessible, to click on the graph at various points to see the exact values:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/). You will probably notice that your
graph is wildly inaccurate; of course, while the disease may spread exponentially, a simple
exponential function is an incredibly crude means of measuring the spread of the virus (notably,
our function does not account for the fact that a person is no longer contagious after the initial
10 days). What factors should we take into consideration to create a more accurate model?
Why does the curve begin to flatten?
 Chapter 5: Exponential Functions and Equations

Question 3: On March 12, as a result of a partial nation-wide lockdown, the basic reproductive
number was reduced to 1.60. Transform your function/graph to model the progression of the
virus if such lockdown measures had been take from the beginning (of course, this model likely
won't be accurate either).

Question 4: The initial outbreak of the virus takes the form of exponential growth. What kind of
function does the graph appear to resemble during the eventual decline of the virus? Why
might this be?

Learn More
https://www.wired.com/story/how-fast-does-a-virus-spread
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0883-7#Abs1
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isolation.html