How accurate is your Garmin’s VO2max estimate?

sites.udel.edu/coe-engex/2019/03/16/how-accurate-is-your-garmins-vo2max-estimate/

mmannino March 16, 2019

Traveling along the trails, sidewalks, and main streets of the towns they reside in,
runners, cyclists, and endurance sports athletes everywhere all know a familiar sound.
The delightfully gratifying chirp of a fitness tracker as you complete your next mile,
achieve a new PR (personal record), or record a new VO2max.

Ever since I entered the world of endurance sports training eight years ago, I’ve heard
athletes talking about their VO2 max, how to improve it, and how accurate (or not?)
fitness trackers are at actually measuring these values.

I decided to explore the technology of Garmin fitness watches to understand how

VO2max is calculated and do a baseline comparison of how these wearable technologies
VO2max predictions compare to laboratory testing.

Firstbeat Technology’s Fitness Test is used by Garmin and other fitness companies to
calculate VO2max for a variety of different activities. Described in patent
US20110040193A1, this Fitness Test calculates users’ VO2 in the following steps:

1) The personal background info (at least age) is logged

2) The person starts to exercise with a device that measures heart rate and speed
3) The activity collected data is segmented to different heart rate ranges based off the
persons background info and the reliability of different data segments is
calculated(reliability is measured based off how continuous the activity is- uninterrupted
segments are better than those where the user has to stop)
4) The most reliable data segments are used for estimating the person’s aerobic fitness
level (VO2max) by utilizing the person’s heart rate and speed data

Speed data from reliable segments are used to calculate a VO2, oxygen consumption,
during that segment. 20-30s bouts are used to calculate VO2 across segments using one of
the following theoretical VO2 calculations:

Walking and Pole Walking: Theoretical VO2

(ml/kg/min)=1.78*speed*16.67[tan(inclination)+0.073]
Running on a Level Ground: Theoretical VO2 (ml/kg/min)=3.5 speed
Running in a Hilly Terrain: Theoretical VO2
(ml/kg/min)=3.33*speed+15*tan(inclination)*speed+3.5
Cycling: Theoretical VO2 (ml/kg/min)=(12.35*Power+300)/person’s weight
Rowing (Indoor): Theoretical VO2 (ml/kg/min)=(14.72*Power+250.39)/person’s
weight Unit of speed=kilometers per hour (km/h)
Unit of inclination=degrees)(°)
Unit of power=watts (W)
Unit of weight=kilograms (kg)

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From these calculated theoretical VO2 values, heart rate information is used to determine
effort of segments. Heart rate zones based on user information are utilized to evaluate
effort, and then effort is used to determine that VO2 as a %VO2max. VO2max estimates
are made for each segment using %VO2max. These segment VO2max can be weighted
based off heart beat derived parameters and performance parameters, and then used to
calculate VO2max.[1]

An affordable mode of tracking your VO2max through measuring heart rate and speed
data – pretty neat, right? But how accurate is this technology and how does it match up to
laboratory testing?

Firstbeat conducted their own study to validate the technology and its effectiveness at
estimating VO2max. They found that “[t]he accuracy of the method when applied for
running is 95% (Mean absolute percentageerror, MAPE ~5%), based on a database of
2690 freely performed runs from 79 runners whose VO2max was tested four times during
their 6-9 -month preparation period for a marathon”(4). Error in estimated VO2max was
less 3.5ml/kg/min in most cases, which is fairly accurate considering most submaximal
testing has an error of 10-15%. Method accuracy varied with respect to estimated
maximum heart rate(HRmax). ” If the HRmax is estimated 15 beats/min too low, the
error in the VO2max result is about 9%. Respectively, if the HRmax is estimated 15
beats/min too high, the error in VO2max result is 7%. If the person’s real HRmax is
known, the VO2max assessment error falls to the 5% level”(5). This study suggests a high
degree of accuracy for Firstbeat’s fitness test technology in predicting VO2max.[2]

A group of scientists at Southern Illinois University Edwardsville evaluated the wearable

technology’s accuracy by conducting a laboratory VO2max test on male and female
runners, then allowing participants to use the wearable technology to calculate VO2max
in a 10 minute self guided run. They found that the Garmin Forerunner 230MAX and
235MAX measured VO2max within -0.3 ± 3.4 ml/kg/min, p=0.02 for the 230MAX and
-1.1 ± 4.0 ml/kg/min, p=0.026 for the 235MAX for female runners, and -1.1 ± 3.4
ml/kg/min, p=0.149 for the 230MAX and -3.2 ± 4.2 ml/kg/min, p=0.002 for the
235MAX for male runners. There is a greater amount of variability in the male group;
however, this could be due to miscalculations in HRmax and potential variations in levels
of effort in participant during the 10 minute self guided run. Although there is greater
variability within the male group, the devices still appear fairly accurate at predicting
VO2max.[3]

Wearable conducted an evaluation of their own putting fitness watches to the test –
assessing the accuracy of Garmin, Fitbit, and Jabra devices in measuring VO2max. They
found that Garmin technology provided a VO2max estimation within 0.3 ml/kg/min of
their study participant, which was the most accurate of all devices tested. The high degree
of accuracy found in their study remains consistent with other larger scientific studies.[4]

Across the board, there appears to be a high degree of accuracy with Firstbeat’s Fitness
Test in estimating VO2max. For endurance athletes everywhere, this is a huge sigh of
relief. Rather than partaking in expensive, strenuous VO2max testing, we can monitor our
progress utilizing the technology in the watches we wear everyday. In addition to

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watching our paces, heart rates, and overall progress, we can also monitor our
cardiovascular health and athletic progress as we continue to train and push ourselves
everyday.

References:

[1]Seppanen, M., Pulkkenin, A., Kurunmaki, V., Saalasti, S., & Kettunen, J. (2016). U.S.
Patent No. US20110040193A1. Washington, DC: U.S. Patent and Trademark Office

[2] Firstbeat Technology(2014). Automated Fitness Level (VO2max) Estimation with

Heart Rate and Speed Data.

[3]Snyder, N. C. , Willoughby, C. A. & Smith, B. K. (2017). Accuracy of Garmin and Polar

Smart Watches to Predict VO2max. Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, 49(5S), 761.
doi: 10.1249/01.mss.0000519024.10358.0b.

[4]Stables, J., & Stables, J. (2016, December 21). The big VO2 Max test: Fitbit, Garmin
and Jabra go head-to-head. Retrieved from https://www.wareable.com/running/best-
vo2-max-devices-tested-9129

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