estimate of the proportion of Mexicans who
Determining Sample Size for Surveys
Bureau of Business and Economic Research
Introduction
Determining proper sample size is perhaps
the most confusing part of planning a survey.
It seems intuitive that the larger the
population from which the sample is drawn,
the larger the sample size should be. In fact,
only in very few cases is the sample size
adjusted for the size of the population and
this only when the size of the sample
approaches the size of the population. (This
is called the finite population adjustment; it
is employed if the sample is expected to
exceed 10% of the population size.)
In any survey (whether done by telephone,
by mail, or with face-to-face interviews), if
the sampling is random, then sample size
should be determined by three things: the
confidence level you can tolerate, the
precision you want, and the variance (or
estimated variance) of the variable being
measured. Of course, in most cases there is
more than one variable, so a balance has to
be struck between sampling for variables
with the highest variance and sampling for
variables that are most important.
Suppose a survey about health insurance
needs contains a question on the
respondent’s annual income and a question
asking if the respondent has health insurance.
The variance on the income question could
be very high, requiring a sample of 2000
respondents to get a tight confidence
interval.
But if the variable of most interest is the
proportion of respondents who have health
insurance, and the estimated variance on
that variable is low, then you might need
only a sample of 1000 to get more or less the
same tight confidence interval you’d get
with 2000 respondents. It pays in this case to
ask how tight an interval is needed on
estimates of income.
The formula to determine sample size’ is:
where
n = sample size
z =
confidence level (that is, 1.96 for 95%
confidence and 2.575 for 99%
confidence)
are literate falls within ± 2%.
Christopher McCarty There is a rule of thumb in survey research
that 1600 responses is an adequate sample
for most research. This is true when the
University of Florida variance in the variable of interest
approaches 50%. In the case of a binary
proportion, for example, such as the answer
s =
standard deviation to a yes/no question, the maximum variance
H = precision level, which is the occurs when half the respondents (0.5)
compactness of the confidence interval answer &dquo;yes&dquo; and half (0.5) answer &dquo;no.&dquo;
desired With a confidence level of 95% and a
As an example, suppose you want to estimate precision level of 2.5 %, the suggested sample
the average age of people over 18 in all is 1537, or roughly 1600 respondents.
households in the country. Suppose further
that: (1) the estimate must are willing to settle for a precision
be within, say, If you
level of 5%, then a sample size of 384 is
plus or minus 5 years (H in the formula); (2) called
you want to be confident that another survey
for. If the variance is more
would yield the same results 95 times out of complicated, then 1600 responses may be
100 repetitions (z in the formula); and (3) too few, and if you are willing to settle for a
precision level of 5 %, then 1600 responses is
prior surveys suggest the standard deviation
of age is 17 years (s in the formula). too many. Notice the ratio and the cost of
that ratio: you have to quadruple the sample
The number of respondents needed, then, size to halve the precision interval.
is:
What this means, of course, is that surveys
do not have margins of error; only responses
to particular questions and statistics or
indexes calculated from responses have a
margin of error. When press reports say that
You would need to sample 44 respondents to a survey of 1600 people has a margin of error
be assured at the 95% level of confidence of 2.5°10, that’s usually bad reporting because
that the estimate of age was the actual surveys contain so many questions with so
population average, give or take 5 years. A many different variances. This is more than
precision level of ± 1 year would require a semantic quibbling; an erroneously applied
sample of 289 respondents. margin of error can lead to a serious
misinterpretation of results.
For variables that are proportions rather
than means, such as responses to yes/no When all is said and done, sample size is
questions or variables such as
categorical often determined by budget constraints
religious affiliation, the formula is the same rather than by formulas. If the formula calls
but the calculation of the standard deviation for 3000 responses at $10 each, and there is
is different. Suppose you want to estimate only $20,000 in the budget, researchers live
the proportion of Mexicans who are literate with 2000 surveys. There is nothing wrong
in Spanish and that previous studies suggest with this, so long as one is aware of the effect
that 80% are literate. The formula to estimate this may have on confidence and precision.
the standard deviation is:
Notes
1. Estimating the variance of a question in a
population can be difficult. Fortunately, variance
In this case p=.80, so: for most responses tends to change less quickly
over time than means or proportions. If previous
studies suggest a variance, then it can be used.
Otherwise, estimating the maximum variance
Assuming you want a confidence level of expected is recommended.
95% and a confidence interval of ± 2%, the
2. This and other formulas in this article
sample size is: were
taken from Parasuraman (1991).
Reference
You need to interview 1537 respondents to Parasuraman, A. 1991. Marketing Research, 2d
be confident at the 95% level that your edition. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
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