PAKISTAN – INDIA RELATIONS

1. Carrying the dead weight of the history – Burden of history. Daunted, strained, checkered
history between Pak and India. The biggest conflict is Kashmir dispute (Irredentism). E.g. Sir
Creek, Siachin, Hyderabad, Junagarh & Kashmir. Another element is religion. Hindu vs Muslims
which shaped nationalism. National Interest, border disputes, colonial legacies. These issues
could have been settled at the time of independence by British empire but this did not happen
2. Extra regional interventions and geostrategic interests. Cold War affected us (India & USSR vs
Pak & USA). Energy economy impacted us (KSA vs Iran). Rising multi-polarity (USA vs China).
Central actors in India Ocean region politics (USA, China, KSA, Iran, Russia). Balance of power
mechanism in a way that both countries alliance with opposite states

Major Issues between Pak & India

1. Kashmir issue (Economic, strategic, demographic, political, geographic dynamics)
 Water security and energy security of Kashmir
 Upper hand in terms of military strategy because Kashmir is on high altitude.
Indo China border dispute is also in Kashmir. Pakistan’s security will be
vulnerable
 This is no more only a dispute of land but now it has become a dispute of people
pride. We now see it as an emotional issue (Shahrag of Pakistan). This dispute is
in national sentiments. Political parties agendas, constitution and everything
moves around Kashmir
 Accessibility, security, economy
2. Opposite Political community designs (Liberalism (India) & Nationalism (Pak) – Nationalism
(India) & Liberalism (Pak)). Propaganda against each other. India says Pakistan is terrorist
country and Pakistan now says India is fascist country. Target each other nationalism’s and run
malign campaigns against each other.
3. Economic diplomacy
Keneysian Economic Model (If you are a geographical buffer between two economic markets
(India & China), make your country a point of competition for both). Spillover of factories in
Pakistan because they both want to compete in Pakistan economy.
If you geographically fall between two rising economies, make your territories a point of
competition for both the countries.
Beggar Thy Neighbor Policy (FATF, MFN). Reciprocate the Most Favorite Nation status against
each other in same sector. India gave Pakistan MFN status in 2009 in Pharma, Automobile, Steel,
IT, Textile. Pakistan was bound to give MFN status to India but Pakistan did not gave MFN status
to India.
Pakistan bandwagoning with China is creating issues for India so India is using Beggar Thy
Neighbor Policy
4. Connectivity – China rise is a regional decline of India and global decline of USA. Pakistan open
alliance with China. BRI with Pakistan (CPEC) which means Pakistan connectivity with the world
but India will lag in this aspect so India is vulnerable at this point. Connectivity dominance of
Pakistan is a major issue for India
 5. Chabahar – India is out, China is in (China – Iran). Iran & Afghanistan are connecting with
Pakistan and both are also in connectivity with China. Pakistan open posturing towards
Afghanistan in Afghan Peace Process. Pakistan’s strategic depth rise
6. Military expansionist agenda – Nuclear Deterrence – India does play proxy wars, violation of
LOCs but can’t start conventional war with Pakistan. No military bully
7. Response time required to initiate war on borders but since Pakistan is small as compared to
India so Pakistan military is concentrated and can engage military fast as compared to India
8. Resolution of Pak India conflicts – three tier dispute resolution mechanism – on the basis of
multilateralism (UN, never resolved, can’t work), bilateralism (in every decade almost, but never
worked because of conflicts and conflict of interests), and third party mediation (most successful
but now currently, mediators are themselves in conflict of interests). No immediate conflict
resolution structure.

Key actors of diminished relationship

1. Kashmir Issue
2. Nuclear Issue
3. Nationalism
4. Economic Conflicts