MC190200540

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STA301 - Statistics and Probability

Assignment No.2
Question 1:
A and B pay a game in which A’s probability of wining is 2/3. In a series of 8 games, wat is the
probability that A will win
i. Exactly 4 games
ii. At least 4 games
iii. 6 or more games
iv. From 3 to 6 games

Solution:

As per given details,

2
n  8, p 
3
Whereas,
p  q 1
2 3 2
q  1 p  1 
3 3
1
q
3

To find the probability that A will win, binomial probability law would be used,

n
P( X  x)    p x q n x when x  0,1, 2........
 x

a. Exactly 4 Games
X 4
n
P( X  x)    p x q n  x
 x
4 8 4 4 4
8  2   1  8!  2 1
P ( X  x  2)            
 4 3   3  4!(8  4)!  3   3 
2 3
4
8 7  6  5  4 ! 2   1   16  1  1120
      70    
4  3  2 ( 4 )!  3   81   81  81  6561
P ( X  x  2)  0.1707

b. At Least 4 Games
MC190200540
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P ( X  4)  1  P ( X  4)
 1   P( x  0)  P( X  1)  P( X  2)  P( X  3) 
 8   2 0  1 80  8   2 1  1 81  8   2  2  1 82  8   2 3  1 83 
 1                             
 0   3   3  1   3   3   2 3   3   3   3   3  
 8!  1  1 
8 1
8!  2   1 
7
8!
2
 2 1
6
8!  2   1  
3 5

 1                    
 0!(8  0)!  1  3  1!(8  1)!  3   3  2!(8  2)!  3   3  3!(8  3)!  3   3  
  1  1   2   4   8 
 1   (1)     (8)    28    56  
  1  6561   6561   6561   6561  
 1 16 112 448 
 1    
 6561 6561 6561 6561 
1  16  112  448 
 1  
 6561
 577 
 1   1  0.08794
 6561 
P ( X  4)  0.9120

c. 6 or More Games
P ( X  6)   P ( x  6)  P( X  7)  P( X  8) 
  8   2  6  1  8  6  8   2  7  1  8  7  8   2  8  1  8 8 
P ( X  6)                      
 6   3   3  7 3   3   8   3   3  
 8!
6
2 1
2
8!
7
2 1
8 7
8!  2   1  
8 8 8

P ( X  6)                 
 6!(8  6)!  3   3  7!(8  7)!  3   3  8!(8  8)!  3   3  
  64   128   256  
P ( X  6)   28    8   1 
  6561   6561   6561  
1792 1024 256 1792  1024  256 3072
P ( X  6)     
6561 6561 6561 6561 6561
P ( X  6)  0.4682
d. From 3 to 6 Games

P(3  X  6)   P( x  3)  P( X  4)  P( X  5)  P( X  6) 
 8   2  3  1  8  3  8   2  4  1  8  4  8   2  5  1  8  5  8   2  6  1  8  6 
P(3  X  6)                             
 3   3   3   4 3   3   5 3   3   6   3   3  
 8!  2 3  1 5 8!
4
 2 1
4 5
8!  2   1 
3
8! 2 1 
6 2

P(3  X  6)                      
 3!(8  3)!  3   3  4!(8  4)!  3   3  5!(8  5)!  3   3  6!(8  6)!  3   3  
  8   16   32   64  
P(3  X  6)  56    70    56    28  
  6561   6561   6561   6561  
 448   1120   1792   1792  
P(3  X  6)      
 6561   6561   6561   6561  
448  1120  1792  1792 5152
P(3  X  6)  
6561 6561
P(3  X  6)  0.7852

Question 2:
MC190200540
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An urn contains 4 red balls and 6 black balls. A sample of 4 balls is selected from the urn without
replacement. Let X be the number of red balls contained in the sample, then find the probability
distribution for X.
Solution:
Red Balls = 4 Black Balls = 6 Total Balls = 10 Sample Selected balls = 4
Random variable (red balls) = x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 N = 10
Sample size
10! 10! 10.9.8.7.6!
 10C4     210
4!(10  4)! 4!6! 4.3.2.6!
4
C0 6C4 4! 6! 1 6.5.4! 1
P( x  0)  10     
C4 0!4! 4!2! 210 2.4! 210
15
P( x  0)   0.0714
210
4
C1 6C3 4! 6! 1 4.3! 6.5.4.3! 1
P ( x  1)  10
     
C4 1!3! 3!3! 210 3! 3!3! 210
80
P ( x  1)   0.3809
210
4
C2 6C2 4! 6! 1 4.3.2! 6.5.4! 1
P( x  2)  10
     
C4 2!2! 2!4! 210 2!2! 2!4! 210
90
P( x  2)   0.4285
210
4
C3 6C1 4! 6! 1 4.3! 6.5! 1
P( x  3)  10      
C4 3!1! 1!5! 210 3! 5! 210
24
P( x  3)   0.1142
210
4
C4 6C0 4! 6! 1 4! 6! 1
P ( x  4)  10
     
C4 4!0! 0!6! 210 4! 6! 210
1
P ( x  4)   0.0047
210