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Project risk analysis of solar energy project delays in India

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Project Risk Analysis of Solar Energy Project Delays in
India
SIDDHARTH GAURAV¹, NICHOLAS CHILESHE², TONY MA³
¹²³School of Natural and Built Environment, University of South Australia, Adelaide
¹Email: gausy004@mymail.unisa.edu.au

ABSTRACT
While some countries have made significant advances in the deployment of
photovoltaic cells and solar thermal projects, India’s growth rate is sluggish. Solar
energy building contractors and the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE)
have often been criticised due to a history of missing targets for solar installations. The
negligence in mitigating risks at an organisational level, as well as a project level, can
affect solar projects at a catastrophic level.
Failure to identify and manage risks can be held accountable for the delays in the
advancement of current and future projects. The aim of this paper is to investigate the
state of solar projects in India, with an objective to create a knowledge base of assorted
risks in the Indian context. Overall, this paper establishes the need for future research to
investigate the competency of Project Management Offices in managing solar energy
project risks.

Keywords: India, project delays, project risk management, solar projects

INTRODUCTION
Numerous solar energy projects have been created around the world to reduce the
greenhouse gas emissions. The need to replace fossil fuels has engendered a sense of
urgency in seeking energy resolutions, and project managers and associates are under
pressure to generate results from their ongoing solar projects. However, the eco-friendly
targets of solar energy projects cannot be attained unless their associated risks are
mitigated.
Risk associates and project managers in project management offices (PMO) play an
important role in ensuring that projects are completed by the scheduled date. A
comprehensive review of risks is critical to affectively manage a solar project. If a
PMO’s associated project is not completed on time, there is a question mark over their
aptitude and expertise.
This paper stipulates the need for further research to rank and categorise risks in order
to discover why solar energy projects in India have a history of missing targets. The
research should also examine risk management strategies adopted by solar contractors
employed by their PMOs.
This research paper comprehensively analyses literature to discuss the past and present
target achievements of various solar projects. The analysis of solar energy development
in India will provide stakeholders and building contractors with a knowledge base of

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risks that create delays associated with solar energy projects. Further research will assist
in understanding the problems faced by solar contractors in India. The literature review
adopts a methodology of target analysis using articles and press releases.

SOLAR ENERGY POTENTIAL IN INDIA

Solar energy is an essential energy resource that has the potential to provide an
improved power supply in India, predominantly in remote areas, while augmenting the
security of India’s energy supply (India Energy Portal 2010). The Tropic of Cancer
passes through India and sufficient sunshine is available to exploit solar energy (Indian
Renewable Energy Status Report 2010). On average, India has 300 sunny days per year
and an accumulated standard hourly radiation of 200 MW/km2. The India Energy Portal
estimates that around 12.5 per cent of India’s landmass, or 413,000 km2, could be used
to employ solar energy (Indian Renewable Energy Status Report 2010). The use of
building-integrated photovoltaic (PV) cells could further enhance the area. While
concentrated solar power systems (CSPs) have not yet been extensively used in India,
research predicts that these systems alone could generate 11,000 TWh every year.
In addition to India’s potential for widespread solar power deployments, the country
also has the capacity to regulate household energy demand through an increased
allocation of solar water heaters (SWH) to built environments. The current government
has taken definite steps towards utilising solar energy. The Jawaharlal Nehru National
Solar Mission (JNNSM), which was introduced in January 2010, forecasts the
generation of 1,000 MW by 2013 and 20 GW by 2022. It will set up 20 million solar
lighting schemes and it aims to encompass a solar thermal collector area of 20 million
square metres (India Energy Portal 2010). However, these numbers are miniscule
considering the additional power needed to drive the present growth in India.
In July 2009, India disclosed a US$19 billion plan to yield 20 GW of solar power by
2020 (Reuters 2009). In this proposal, the employment of solar energy applications
would be obligatory in all government buildings, municipals, hospitals etc. Sethi (2009)
reported that India was ready to launch its National Solar Mission under the National
Action Plan on Climate Change, with plans to generate 1,000 MW of power by 2013.
There are many innovative projects being created in India and these ambitious
developments should be monitored. India will need to pave new ground if it wishes to
rapidly upscale its solar capacity (Indian Express 2010). Nevertheless, India’s targets
are achievable, provided the government and contractors use all resources at their
disposal. The next section examines India’s history of sluggish project completion rates.

AN OVERVIEW OF PAST TARGETS AND ACHIEVEMENTS

This section summarises the history of targets and achievements in Indian solar energy
projects to date. Table1 shows the targets and results in the SPV and solar thermal
programs. The analysis revealed that, according to the tenth plan, the number of SPV
home lights was fixed at around 202,000, but the result was only half (107,904). For the
SPV power plants, the result was only 373.4 MW compared to the target of 1,475 MW.
In the case of SPV pumps, the target was nearly achieved (3,600 target v. 2,568 result).
However, the result for SPV lanterns was extremely high in comparison to the solar
power projects, where the target was around 18,500, but the result was three times the
target (67,259). With reference to the solar energy thermal program, the fixed target for

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solar water heating systems was around 1,005,000 and the project achieved nearly
995,000. However, only half of the target was achieved for solar heaters (162,000 v.
70,978). These data suggest a very bleak history of solar development in India.
Table 1: Targets and Results for Solar PV and Solar Thermal Programmes in the Tenth
Plan
2003–04 2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 Tenth plan

Target Result Target Result Target Result Target Result Target Result

SPV home light

50,000 11,870 0 34,844 42,000 9,727 60,000 23,033 202,000 107,904
(nos)

SPV Lanterns
0 0 15,000 21,577 100,000 885 30,000 31,000 185,000 67,259
(nos)

SPV street light

0 4,133 0 1,650 0 367 1,250 4,659 1,250 12,589
systems (nos)
SPV power plants
450 19.7 0 79.7 350 0 400 0 1,475 373.4
(MW)
Solar Thermal
Energy 1,600 841 0 366 500 222 300 66 3,600 2,568
Programme

Solar Thermal Energy Programme

Solar Water
Heating systems
55 0 100 150 400 400 400 400 1,005 995
(m2 collector
area)
Solar Cooker
35 5 35 20 35 19.77 22 16,209 162 70.98
(nos)

Source: Adopted from Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (2011)

CURRENT STATUS OF SOLAR ENERGY IN INDIA

Solar energy in India accounts for only one per cent of renewable energy generation
(Sargsyan et al. 2010). At present, India produces 18 MW from solar sources, with a target
of 150–200 MW to be completed by December 2011. However, this target seems far
from being realisation.
The completion of the JNNSM would make India a global leader for solar energy
deployments. However, the completion rate of the project is very slow, as only 686 MW
have been achieved from a target of 1.1 GW, with only six months left to complete the
first phase. Shah (2010) suggests that there are delays in building Phase 1 of the
JNNSM, as ‘banks have expressed concerns about lending to this new sector, including
worries that solar equipment may not perform as expected under Indian climactic
conditions, which would affect projects’ ability to produce enough power to pay back
loans’. Panchabuta (2011) says that the tight deadlines of the JNNSM come as no
surprise, and that some companies may miss deadlines to build India’s first solar power
plants this year, while others face rising costs. Table 2 explains the cumulative status of
Indian solar energy development. The progress rate of solar establishments has been
very slow in India where the building contractors and the Ministry of New and
Renewable Energy (MNRE) failed to achieve the desired momentum. The size of the
solar energy program in India may be the largest in the world; however, the program
seems more ambitious without realistic prospects of achieving targets. Table 3 shows
the recent progress in the development of India’s wind energy producing capacity.

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However, the progress and completion rates of other renewable sectors especially solar
energy are lagging behind the wind energy sector, despite having the same policy and
regulatory requirements. Wind energy contractors do not face competition in the supply
of technical equipment, as do other renewable energy contractors (e.g. small hydro,
solar and biomass power). Further, there is no competition for the allotment of sites
with good wind resources; investors who acquire the land control the resource,
effectively blocking any competition (ESMAP 2010).
Table 2: Targets and results in solar projects to 30 June 2011
Result during Total result
Target for Cumulative result
the month of during 2011–
2011–12 to 30 June 2011
July 12
Solar power (SPV) 200 2 2 39.66

SPV systems (>1kW) 20 - - 69

Solar water heating in collector

0.6 - - 4.47
areas (million m2)

Source: Adopted from Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (2011)

Table 3: A comparative target analysis for various renewable energy sectors in India

Target Cumulative
Achievements during Total achievement
Renewable Energy 2011-2012 achievement up to
June 2011 (MW) 2011-2012 (MW)
(MW) 30/06/2011

Wind Power 2400 237.03 394.68 14550.68

Small Hydro Power 350 23 63 3105.63
Biomass Power 460 38 48 1045.1

Solar Power (SPV) 200 2 2 39.66

SPV Systems
20 0.42 3.5 72.5
(>1kW)

Source: Adopted from Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (2011)

RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SOLAR PROJECTS

Risk is an event or unclear situation that may influence the timeline of a project (Hillson
2002). Risk management refers to optimising decisions in order to reduce uncertainty
about future events when the information is incomplete, unclear or under discussion
(IRM 2002). Solar projects are very challenging in Indian environment, as they have
many stakeholders (such as the MNRE and state governments) with complex
government legislations. It is difficult to keep everyone going in the same direction.
Also, solar technologies are tough to execute, leaving building contractors grappling
with talent, technology and material shortages in India (Sargsyan et al. 2010). There have
been questions concerning building contractors’ abilities to manage their project-
associated risks to get their projects completed on time. According to Gupta (2009), in a
study of 150 diverse companies in India, it emerged that risk management is currently
facing integration problems because the ‘knowledge of risk management in Indian

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companies is inadequate and sample companies hesitate to respond, thinking that it may
reflect inefficiencies’. The state of the current situation requires research on solar
contractors and their capacity and practices in order to manage risks. Mainframe risks
associated with solar projects can be classified as political, financial, social and
technical which is further classified in Figure 1.

UNFCCC Targets And

International Risk
Policy

Government
Instability

Policy Risk
Electricity Tariff And
National Risk Grid Connection Policy
Risk
Licenceing And
Decommissioning Risk
Legal and Regulatory
Contract Risk
Risk
Legislation And
Compliance Risk

Credit Risk

Market Risk Pricing Risk

Financial Risks Insurance Risk

Equity And Debt Risk

Tax and Audit Risk

Risks

Reliability Risk
Operation,
Maintenance And
Servicing Risk
Performance Risk

Land Feasibility Risk

Technical Risk Construction Risk

Transparency Risk

Procurement Risk

Human Resource Risk

Environmental Risks Polution Risk

Social Risk

OHS Risk

Figure 1 Risk Breakdown Structure

Source: Developed for this research

Political Risks
It is crucial that the India government creates a clear and consistent regulatory
environment in order to improve the solar success rates (Indian Express 2010). Stable
and enduring policies would improve the achievability of targets of solar projects.

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“Solar investors and their contractors need to be confident with regulations relating to
energy mix, emission policy and feed-in tariffs, and the policies should be uniform and
conventional. The Asian Development Bank and the World Economic Forum are in
discussions with investors from various countries to examine models that can increase
global investment into solar energy” (Indian Express 2010). India is growing at a great
pace and is well placed to lead an important role in these negotiations.
The risk of restrictions in receiving regulatory approvals and achieving financial closure
is relatively high, as the Indian government has a history of delays in clearance and
approval. If a project does not obtain the obligatory approvals, it fails to achieve
financial closure, which inflates the required funds to execute a project. There are
numerous political risks associated with solar projects in India:
Table 4: Classification of Political Risks
Classification of Risks Risks/ Barriers Description Reference
Policy Risks · High costs and unfavourable power pricing rules Beck &
· Environmental externalities Martinot
· Institutional and regularity barriers 2004;
· High rates for consumers Riedy 2008
· Frequent changes in government policy
Licensing, · Payment guarantee mechanisms are not reliable. There is Kurth 2007;
commissioning and no legislation in India that deals exclusively with
Finley-Jones
approvals risks renewable energy laws
2004
· Risks due to contracted parties not recognising the
contract’s binding nature, and the judicial system is
plagued by lengthy, intractable delays and ‘banked up’
cases
· Problems in obtaining clearances and certifications
· Delay in receiving payments
Contract · Risks based on parties to a contract not recognising their Kurth 2007
binding nature and the judicial system being plagued by
substantial intractable delays and ‘banked up’ cases
· Payment guarantee mechanisms are not reliable
Source: Developed for this research
Financial Risk
The cost of generating solar power in India is even higher than those for diesel
generation; therefore, solar power remains an uncertain and costly alternative for power
generation. The central Government of India and the state governments offer a wide
range of incentives, such as feed-in tariffs, generation incentives, renewable purchase
obligations (RPO), national and state capital subsidies, and tax incentives (World Bank
2010). The lack of management and coordination between state and central programs
makes it difficult for the contractors to adopt an economic approach, which makes it
hard to attain their targets. It is expected that solar projects will reach grid parity in the
coming years; however, that is a distant dream and the current costs of generation far
exceeds the costs for conventional and other renewable energy sources (MNRE 2010).

The blocking of land also frequently leads to an unsustainable project environment as

land acquisition is a big problem in India. “Solar plants have high capital costs because
of expensive input material and the high cost of components. Adequate solar radiation

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levels for large-scale solar generation also require the availability of transmission
infrastructure to remove power from the project location; large stretches of flat land,
particularly for parabolic trough systems; and continual water supply to generate steam
and cool turbines, in the case of solar thermal plants”(World Bank Report 2010).
Table 5: Classification of Financial Risks
Classification
Risks/ Barriers Description Reference
of Risks
Financial and · Instability of taxation environment in India with changes Lippert, Kishor &
equity risks to relevant regulations frequent in India’s renewable Dhingra 2006;
energy sector
Bansal, Bhatti &
· Difficult to fund working capital because a) banks are Kothari 2002
hesitant to lend to rural entrepreneurs b) banks are
reluctant to accept raw material as collateral World Bank Report
· Unpredictable borrowing, lending and return rates 2010
· Skewed financial incentives
· Failure to tackle long-term financial apprehension
· Inadequate long-term funding
· High capital costs
· Access to funds or subsidies from the government
· Knowledge barriers among financial institutions and
banks
· Unstable taxation environment in India due to frequent
regulation changes in the renewable energy sector
· Unexpected borrowing, lending and return rates
· Intermittency or infirm nature of the power generated.

Source: Developed for this research

Technical Risks
Solar expertise also demands highly accurate engineering apparatus such as parabolic
mirrors and receiver tubes, which are not obtainable locally (Sargsyan et al. 2010)). Data,
process consistency and quality standards are not consistent because of inadequate field
knowledge, with each contractor imposing their own paradigm. The intensity of
customisation means that the solar apparatus has to be deployed on a project-by-project
basis, preventing companies from generating revenue on high-scale productivity
(Sargsyan et al. 2010). This risk develops due to a lack of expertise and little or no
experience in stimulating capital.
The inadequate accessibility of the appropriate infrastructure to connect grids is one of
the major risks of exploiting solar power sources. Moreover, there is a high likelihood
that the project hypothesis will never reach its execution stage, because there is a
possibility that the project will be declared infeasible or financially unviable. The nature
of risk attributes related to results is similar to that in the case of other infrastructure
projects, with likelihood that time and cost expectations will be exceeded, or that the
finished project will not be up to the required technical specifications. The risk of time
and cost overruns is reasonably high, and the effect of these stipulations is also
comparatively high. However, there are standard insurance covers obtainable to
moderate these risks. Project sponsors also transfer this risk by outsourcing construction
to a contractor through a turnkey contract (MNRE 2010).

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 Table 6: Classification of Technical Risks
Classification of Risks/ Barriers Description Reference
Risks
Technology · Technology transfer is not the main barrier (rather Lippert, Kishor &
the technology itself is a limitation) Dhingra 2006;
· Lack of fuel production and delivery infrastructure Beck & Martinot
· Unrecognised technology performances and quality 2004;
products
· Expected lead time issues pertaining to importing Energy Finance
equipment 2007;
· Technologies tie up / Joint Venture, expected Lead-
time for Technology tie up / Joint Venture, issues if
any.
Operation and · Risk of problems such as machinery breakdowns Reddy 2002
maintenance and downtime
· High payback period guarantee
· Selling surplus power is difficult
Procurement · Expected lead-time issues pertaining to import of ESMAP 2010
equipment
· Technology tie-ups/joint venture, expected lead-
time for technology tie-ups/ joint venture issues if
any
· Indigenisation percentage with respect to project
cost and its impact on project cost
· Overall, increasing indigenisation percentage
Human resource · Difficulty in finding appropriate skilled and Kurth 2007
risks unskilled employees to work in this field because
the technology is new
Land feasibility · Site selection risks: the risk that land may not be Reddy 2002
compatible with the wind energy project
· Lack of necessary infrastructure
· Problems with land acquisition
Transparency · India is well-known as a country in which Kurth 2007
risk corruption in administrative, bureaucratic and
business circles is rife
Source: Developed for this research
Social risks
As with any construction project, during the construction phase there are likely to be
noticeable impacts to the environment (Tsoutsos et al. 2003). These gases can affect the
landscape, ecosystem and habitats, noise, and visual pollution. Despite these effects,
solar thermal expertise is the most considerate to the land. Hence, this technology is
considered a constructive choice for desert areas where the soil and environment is
delicate. If careful attention is paid during the planning, construction, and operation
phases, the effects on vegetation, soil, and habitat can be minimised (Tsoutsos et al.
2003).
Table 7: Classification of Social Risks
Classification of Risks/ Barriers Description Reference
Risks

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 Environment · Impending environmental legislation Herbert et al. 2010; Stanton 1996;
that may affect the project; Pasqualetti 2002; Gipe 1995;
· Biodiversity protection issues Tsoutsos et al. 2003
· Workers Health and Safety issues

Source: Developed for this research

CONCLUSION
The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) is justified in having a robust
planning mechanism for solar energy building projects in India, which will undoubtedly
create millions of jobs. However, it is evident that the progress and completion rates are
very slow. This shows that there is an urgent need for improvements to innovation and
processes to monitor the progress of schemes, projects and programs associated with
solar projects in India.
While the use of renewable energy has been regarded as a solution to the mounting
problems of climate change and people’s current heavy reliance on fossil fuels, some
important hurdles must be overcome so that renewable energy targets are achieved in
the near future. One of these problems relates to the state of risk management in India.
While it recognised that the success of science- or reason-based endeavours cannot be
predicted, one the deficiencies can be pointed out because of poor risk-mitigating
strategies. It is well within the control of Indian contractors to complete their projects on
time by successfully mitigating their project-associated risks.

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