American University of Sharjah

College of Engineering
Engineering Systems Management Program
ESM 685: Capstone Course
Spring 2021
Instructor: Prof. Vian Ahmed

Investigation of the Socioeconomic Factors Influencing

Municipal Solid Waste Generation and Development of Waste
Generation forecast Model Using Machine Learning for Dubai

Report 2 – Research Methodology

Group B

Christina Varghese 81439

Jihane Ahmed 81393
 Table of Contents

1. Main Findings from Literature 3

1.1 Factors that Influence Waste Generation 4

1.2 Application of different machine learning models in Solid Waste treatment 5

2. Research Methodology 6

2.1 Purpose of Analysis 7

2.2 Research Philosophy and Approach 8

2.3 Research Strategy 10

2.4 Data Collection Strategy 11

2.4.1 Literature Review Approach 11
2.4.2 Quantitative Approach 12

2.5 Stages of Machine Learning in Research 12

2.5.1 Data Availability and Collection 13
2.5.2 Data Pre-Processing 14
2.5.3 Removing Missing Values 15
2.5.4 Machine learning Model 15

2.6 Strategies for Data Analysis 16

2.6.1 Socio Economic Factor Analysis 16
2.6.2 Waste Forecast Analysis 18
2.6.2.1 Linear Regression Model 18
2.6.2.2 Support Vector Machine Model 19
2.6.2.3 Artificial Neural Network Model 20

2.7 Limitations 21

2.8 Validity and Reliability 21

2.9 Ethics 24

3. Conclusion 25

4. References 27
 List of Figures

Figure 1 Appearance of various machine learning models employed in Solid waste 5

Figure 2 Stages of Machine Learning approach in research 10
Figure 3 Example of Structure of an ANN model 15

List of Tables

Table 1 Research Questions Mapping 16

 1. Main Findings from Literature

1.1 Factors that Influence Waste Generation

While the previous sections describe the different stages of waste management and the

challenges faced in UAE to achieve their sustainable goals in the waste management

category, data on waste generation is essential to understand the very need for waste

management. Hence, the waste generation forecasts and the factors that influence waste

generation would provide better insights towards effective waste management plans and

strategies. Therefore, this section aims to highlight the various factors that influence waste

generation in a region and thus choose it for the research study. [56]

Identifying these factors is challenging and the most important considerations in MSW [2]

forecasting. On reviewing the literature, many of these factors are mentioned in [1-6] Several

studies develop models or algorithms that have used these factors for waste forecasting.

However, many of them could not address the waste generation by different activities and

from different social groups. Based on the existing studies, the factors studied can be overall

categorized as economic status [7-11], demographic [12], household-related variables [13],

waste management measures[14,15], and local policy and regulations [7,15]. These factors

are considered as their composition is different in each sector.

A study by (Zhu et al., 2008) described that waste management measures involve facilities

such as dumpsites, collector bins, transport facilities, recycling facilities, and policy

regulations were determined to understand if there was any impact due to certain fees (for

disposal, incineration) or reward system for recycling that are enacted in the region. The

study of (Milea 2009; O'Connell, 2011) described that general socioeconomic factors which
are considered as influencing factors of MSW generation are GDP, urban Population, urban

paved roads, per capita consumption expenditure, energy consumption, geographical location

of area are effective waste management techniques [2,15]. Previous studies have shown that

the combined factors of GDP and urban population growth are the most important

socioeconomic drivers of MSW generation. [17-19].

These studies included socioeconomic factors such as GDP, urban population, paved roads,

per capita consumption expenditure, and energy consumption are strong waste management

approaches. Studies that have found that GDP and urban population expansion are the main

causes behind MSW generation have been done previously.

The investigation in this research also describes that facilities such as landfills, waste disposal

facilities, waste collection facilities, transport facilities, recycling facilities, and municipal

waste disposal and recycling regulations all contribute to understanding whether or not there

is any influence of certain fees (for disposal, incineration) or a recycling reward system that is

put in place in the area. The previous studies and concepts will be kept in the view while

discussing the research.

In other words, in several regions, MSW has increased with the rapid growth in population

and rapid urbanization. Similar to the researchers in [6,7] who developed models, based on

the interrelationships of economic, demographic, housing structure, and waste management

policy variables influencing the rate of solid waste generation, there are very few studies that

we're able to consider all these factors due to the inaccessibility of data, time consumption,

etc. Hence, it's very evident that most scholars have considered socioeconomic factors, such

as population size or economic status, such as GDP. The data of the latter were more

commonly accessible in the respective regions[20,21]. As there are no general research

studies conducted in the field of waste indicator influence in UAE, these papers have enabled

shortlisting of the possible waste indicators to be evaluated with respect to the emirate of
Dubai. At the First Annual Waste Management Conference in Dubai, the UAE (Al-Sayigh

1993) presented a paper on recycling and composting, organizing, and retrieving data.

Storage and transportation and waste disposal. the overall effectiveness of the system was, in

his opinion, the following: much of the financial Improvement was made in the waste

management system unadulterated beauty.

1.2 Application of different machine learning models in Solid Waste

treatment
On reviewing the various machine learning approaches in the solid waste treatment and

management papers, fig.1 reflects the adopted machine learning models in solid waste

treatment and their percentage. Organic solid waste treatments, which often include recycling

and composting, often have limitations, such as low effectiveness, low reliability, high

expense, and the possibility for environmental pollution. The amount of interest in machine

learning to solve organic solid waste treatment's challenging difficulties has grown in the

previous decade. This topic of study is severely lacking in a comprehensive review of the

findings. In his study [22] states about classifying machine learning studies from 2003 to

2020 and summarising the machine learning model suitability for various application

domains, as well as the machine learning model's applicability's limitations and future

possibilities. Based on his study, the research conducted with regards to municipal solid

waste management was the most prevalent, with additional research done on anaerobic

digestion, thermal treatment, composting, and landfill. An artificial neural network (ANN) is

one of the most extensively employed models for tackling a wide range of non-linear organic

solid waste challenges. Studies adopting Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) account for

53.89%, followed by Support Vector Machine with a percentage of (15%), Genetic

Algorithm with (9%), and Random Forest along with Decision tree analysis (7%). Other

models such as Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), adaptive
network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), gradient boosting machine(GBM), gradient

boosting regression tree (GBRT), GEP, and KMC account for 15% of the total. Although

conventional treatment and recycling methods for solid solid waste have inherent

shortcomings, such as low performance, low accuracy, high cost, and environmental risks,

they are often preferable to alternative approaches with no advantages.[66] As the application

of machine learning to the management of organic solid waste has grown in prominence over

the past decade, so has its use in tackling the growing number of difficult problems.

However, extensive research has been done, but the literature lacks a comprehensive analysis

of findings. This report compiles and summarises all research papers published between 2003

and 2020, outlining their respective implementation areas, features, and applicability of

various machine learning models. [65]

Additionally, it assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the proposed solutions, as well as

predicting potential prospects. Municipal solid waste management studies accounted for the

vast majority of research done in this region, with anaerobic digestion, thermal treatment,

composting, and landfill making up the rest. An artificial neural network (ANN) is the most

commonly used model in the field of nonlinear organic solid waste (NOLSW) since it has

proven helpful in solving many difficult problems [60].

 Figure 1 Appearance of various machine learning models employed in Solid waste [55]

The study of [22] is limited to these operational and organizational issues. A major constraint

is the absence of an efficient policy implementation mechanism and technological standards,

in the public and policymakers' general lack of knowledge and education of the climate.

Thus, it merely compounds the issue of waste management, making it even more

unsustainable. Systems for management empowering and empowering culture contextually

integrated, complex, yet adaptive semantic web-based modeling systems if any genuine

progress is to be made emerging-world SWM activities. Among the several discussed

machine learning approaches, this research would opt for the two widely used approaches.

Artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector machines (SVM) and a simpler model,

multiple linear regression model, predict the waste forecasts for the yeast 2021-2030 in

Dubai.

2. Research Methodology
Based on the literature review findings and the research questions:

· How can machine learning be applied in solid waste management?

 · What are the possible variables that cause waste production?

· Is there a significant relationship between socioeconomic factors such as the

quantity of water consumed, total buildings under construction, and the number of

visitors and waste generation in Dubai?

· Why does Dubai/UAE need to expedite the implementation of effective and

sustainable waste management techniques?

The factors such as the quantity of water consumed, total building under construction, and the

number of visitors and waste generation in Dubai are also significant factors of waste

production. The methodology of the research will be discussed in the following sections. It

will focus on different methodology aspects, which are the research approach, strategies, and

research methods used to achieve the aim and objectives of the research. The research aims to

identify the factors that influence waste management and how effective and sustainable waste

management techniques can reduce management. It will also discuss the data collection

techniques and data analysis methods. In addition to these, ethical considerations practices

and the validation of data to confirm consistency are covered.

2.1 Purpose of Analysis

Based on the discussed main findings, it is understood that there is a lack of detailed studies

in UAE regarding waste management; however, with the boosting economy, the solid waste

generated continues to increase. Therefore, this section aims to briefly highlight the reasons

for pursuing this research and the direction.

Consisting of seven emirates in total, UAE's Population is varied across each of them, with

Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Sharjah having the most [23]. Over the recent years, the Emirate of
Dubai has noticed substantial economic growth. Similarly, changes in the field of waste

management have also been observed. However, the primary challenges currently faced in

UAE include the lack of research conducted in this field and the lack of effective and

sustainable waste management methods to improve waste management in the country.

This study intends to examine the relationship between a few major indicators, such as GDP

and Population, with the waste generated for each year in the region. “The value of all

products and services generated inside the borders of a country throughout a year is known

as GDP. The growth rate of the gross domestic product (GDP) is a vital measure of a

country's economic health.” GDP increased by 1%, leading to a rise in municipal service of

1.76% on average as domestic waste. This estimation was relevant to 5% of the population.

When population growth rises by 1%, it would likely result in a 0.11% rise in municipal

waste. This estimation was necessary at the 95% confidence level. Over the past 10,

population and GDP in emerging destinations has grown at a rate of 4.4% a year whereas

established economies' growth will be just 2.2% a year. [67] Health is dependent on

socioeconomic factors such as jobs, education, and income. Socioeconomic issues include

economics applied to culture as well as society itself. This combination is mutually

interdependent. Therefore, GDP and population play an essential role in the production of

waste. After which, a forecast model for solid waste generation in the area for the next ten

years, 2021-2030, would be studied to understand the need to enforce sustainable methods

sooner, using a few machine learning approaches. To conduct this research, consistent data is

critical for a fruitful study. Factors such as quantity of water consumed, total buildings under

construction, and the number of visitors and waste generation in Dubai are considered in

research as a variable that will be discussed and focused. Solid waste and its types

Municipal Solid Wast

Waste created from residences, offices, hotels, stores, schools, and other organisations is

referred to as municipal solid waste (MSW). Food waste is the biggest component. This

includes paper, plastic, rags, metal, and glass. Debris from demolition and construction, like

wood and metal, is frequently included of waste that has been put in collection, as well as

minor quantities of toxic and hazardous trash, such as light bulbs, batteries leftover

medication and trashed automotive parts non-renewable.

Other forms of solid waste is industrial waste and agricultural waste production.

Therefore, the analysis on the various waste indicators and forecasts will be conducted for the

emirate of Dubai only because the database and sampling collection is only limited to Dubai.

In other words, this research intends to explore the answers to the following questions:

· How can machine learning be applied in solid waste management?

· What are the possible variables that cause waste production?

· Is there a significant relationship between socioeconomic factors such as the

quantity of water consumed, total buildings under construction, and the number of

visitors and waste generation in Dubai?

· Why does Dubai/UAE need to expedite the implementation of effective and

sustainable waste management techniques?

Based on these four research questions, the research approach, in general, is a mixed

approach. The first two research questions are approached through the literature review and

hence considered as an exploratory approach. In contrast, the remainder questions are

explained using quantitative data, which would be discussed in the data collection section. It

is examined using multiple linear regression models and then forecasted using three suitable

machine learning approaches.

2.2 Research Philosophy and Approach
Research philosophy is how data should be collected, analyzed, and used concerning a

phenomenon. [22] It is essential to indicate the type of the research philosophy to identify the

research design suitable for the research to find answers for the research questions. Based on

the research questions, the best research philosophy suited is a positivist philosophical stance.

In a definition, positivism states that only "verifiable" information, which can be obtained

through the senses (such as by measuring), is accurate. The researcher's position in positivism

studies is limited to gathering data and interpreting it by employing an analytical approach.

Observable and quantifiable scientific results are also the product of research. The core of

positivism is derived from facts and figures that contribute to statistical analysis. It is the

empiricist view; positivism is in agreement with positivism. Awareness comes from our

experiences as human beings. It believes the universe is made up of small, basic particles

with an atomistic, ontological viewpoint. We are composed of separate, perceivable

components and occurrences that communicate logically, which can be observed and regular,

or ordinary, method. The positivist approach will capture the quantitative methods to

visualize patterns, work on quantifiable observations, and obtain some statistical analysis.

[26]

The research aims to identify the factors that contribute to waste generation and develop a

forecasting model to predict the waste generated in the UAE based on the identified factors.

According to the nature of the research problem, the most suited research approach is the

mixed approach, in which both explanatory and exploratory methods are adopted. The

exploratory approach allows for the exploration and identification of the factors contributing

to waste generation. According to [24], an exploratory kind of approach typically leads to a

superior comprehension of the current issue; however, it doesn't prompt a real outcome for
the most part. Therefore, analysts utilize an exploratory approach to acquire knowledge of a

current phenomenon and gain a new understanding to frame a more exact issue [24].

It starts dependent on an overall thought, and the approach's results are utilized to discover

related issues with the subject of the exploration. For example, in an exploratory approach,

the interaction of the exploration fluctuates as indicated by the finding of new information or

knowledge. Likewise, interpretative exploration or grounded hypothesis approach, the results

of this approach give answers to questions like what, how, and why [25]. Then, this approach

aims to answer the following research questions:

● What are the possible factors that influence a waste generation?

● How can machine learning techniques be applied in different stages of solid waste

management?

● Why does Dubai/UAE need to expedite the implementation of effective and

sustainable waste management techniques?

On the other hand, the explanatory approach helps this research by establishing causal

relationships between variables; in other words, this approach supports our concern to assess

how one variable is responsible for changes in another variable. [27[ An example could be

finding the causal relationship or correlation between the amount of waste and the population

size. This explanatory approach intends to address the following question:

● Is there a significant relationship between population growth, GDP, and waste

generation in Dubai?

To answer this question, the below hypotheses are constructed to determine if the

independent variables, i.e., socioeconomic factors, can be considered as waste indicator(s) for

Dubai. The following hypotheses are created and must be tested in this research;

H01: Gross Domestic Product significantly affects the waste generation in Dubai.
H02: Population growth rate significantly affects waste generation in Dubai.

H03: The quantity of water consumed significantly affects waste generation in Dubai.

H04: Total buildings under construction significantly affects the waste generation in Dubai

H05: Total number of visitors significantly affects the waste generation in Dubai.

Overall, this research approach adopts a mixed approach, adopting both deductive and

inductive methods. Also known as inductive reasoning, induction is an approach in which

hypotheses are developed based on the data. Then, to draw conclusions, patterns,

resemblances, and regularities in experience (premises) are observed (or generating theory).

In deductive reasoning, a general premise leads to a particular inference. Moving from the

general to the specific is known as top-down thought. We can identify and deduce from the

literature the factors that influence the waste generation and how machine learning is valid in

solid waste management through the deductive approach. Whereas the inductive approach

supports devising new findings, such as the waste indicators for Dubai and the waste

generation forecast, based on the results generated from machine learning which would

generate new data that allows for decision making in reality. [63]

2.3 Research Strategy

According to the nature of the research study, the research is based on the statistical data for

the waste amount already available at online resources. This research comprises two parts; in

the first part, the researchers need to explore "How" and "What" impact or factors influence

the waste amount. The research will need to predict the waste amount for the next 10 years

(2021-2030) in the second part. This implies that this research requires evaluating the effect

of more than independent variables on a dependent variable. Therefore the most suited

strategy of this research is by conducting non-Experiment design. Ex post facto

study or after-the-fact research is a type of research design in which the investigation

begins after the fact has occurred without interference from the researcher. It is a type of

research design known as after-the-fact research involves research in which the study

commences after an event has occurred with no researcher influence. Social research is

almost entirely focused on retrospective studies in which there is no way to change the

characteristics of human participants. It is commonly utilised as a substitute for legitimate,

real-world research to examine causal linkages or if it is simply not feasible or ethical to

follow the complete research process of a bona fide experiment. Despite analysing historical

facts, post facto research shares some of the underlying logic of inquiry used in experiments.

[62]

Experiments enable us to pursue this research. Each factor is tested if it has any correlation to

the generated waste, thus choosing the waste indicators for Dubai accurately. In the world of

quantitative research, correlation coefficients are used to calculate the strength of a

relationship between two variables. Other common correlation coefficients include Pearson's.

This is the correlation coefficient that you can see in linear regression equations. Pearson's R

is the first statistics concept you can understand while you're getting started. Pearson's

correlation coefficient is almost always being used when someone refers to the correlation

coefficient. If Pearson's correlation coefficient is positive, the hypothesis would be

considered true as it signifies some impact on waste generation[36]. An experimental design

means to create a set of procedures to test a hypothesis [26].

2.4 Data Collection Strategy

The process of collecting the data and its analysis for the qualitative and quantitative study

for this research will be discussed in this section. Based on the Research nature, research

strategy, and research question, the Quantitative data collection method is used for collecting

the data. This method is suitable for this research because the available sources are literature,

theory, and existing past data at online resources.

2.4.1 Literature Review Approach

As stated in the first research question, the first phase is collecting data and gaining

knowledge from the literature review on whether and how machine learning is valid in solid

waste management and its applications in the same field. This qualitative study would benefit

the researchers to navigate further and shortlist their approach to analyze data for the third

question and the fourth research question.

The second research question calls for finding the various waste indicators; hence, deducing

the various possible factors known to influence solid waste generation comprises the second
phase. The researchers dive and explore studies conducted in other cities and/or countries, as

there are no previous similar studies conducted in UAE or its emirates.

2.4.2 Quantitative Approach

In the third phase of the research, to the theory deduced from the literature review, which

highlights the various waste indicators, a quantitative data collection method is applied to

induce or collect information to justify the same for UAE and allow further analysis. The

statistical data for the derived factors would be sought after with respect to Dubai to identify

if there's any correlation to the waste generation for the same period. This calls for all the

chosen variables to have sufficient data for the periods same as the waste generation data for

Dubai. The period for which quantitative data would be collected is from 2000-2020. The

waste indicators and the waste generated would help the researchers evaluate and interpret

the correlation between each indicator and the waste generation for each year. A mere

qualitative data would not be sufficient to interpret if these factors influence solid waste

generation in Dubai.

After evaluating the various factors, the last phase, which is the core functionality of this

research, includes using the most related waste indicators to forecast the trend in solid waste

generation for the next ten years, i.e., 2021 to 2030.

 Data
Gathering

Data
Arrangement

Data
Analsis

Evaluation

2.5 Stages of Machine Learning in Research

Before implementing the machine learning models, some preprocessing techniques to clean

the dataset would be conducted. Then, according to the study, there may be some data

transformation. Finally, the Linear Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial

Neural. The machine learning algorithm is called linear regression and is used in supervised

learning. This does a regression calculation. The regression model projects a predicted value

on the basis of many factors. While forecasting is the most common use, it is mostly used to

investigate how variables are connected and to forecast. SVM is a supervised machine

learning technique that can be used for classification or regression tasks. It is usually utilized

in classification difficulties, though there are exceptions. An artificial neural network is a

computational system that loosely resembles a biological neural network, and is commonly

referred to as a neural network. ANNs are made up of nodes that function like artificial

neurons, which approximate the connections and functions of neurons in a biological brain.

Neural networks function well with linear and nonlinear data, however because of the vast

diversity of training required for real-world functioning, the systems that employ neural
networks are commonly met with a fair amount of criticism. A machine learning algorithm

will only be able to understand the underlying structure that permits it to generalize to new

circumstances if it has abundant instances of varying scenarios. Network models will be

implemented while using forecasting techniques and evaluating the machine learning

performance using evaluation measures [59] shown in the below figure 2.

Figure 2 Stages of Machine Learning approach in research

Note: The rest of the information will be discussed in the next section 2.6.2.3

2.5.1 Data Availability and Collection

The UAE has one federal statistical data center that manages two open data portals, [27] and

[28], for research and other applications regarding the UAE in general. However, only two of

the seven emirates, namely Abu Dhabi and Dubai, have their statistical centers [29] and [30],

respectively. The major drawback of the federal statistical centre is that since they were

founded in 2015, as per the UAE Federal Law 2/2020, their data with regards to waste is not

available for much earlier than 2010, and the desired data for few indicators such as current

GDP, is not available for years prior to 2009. However, UAE data banks on the World Bank

portal [31] have data for most of the indicators for the desired year range and lack the waste

datasets. Therefore, the unavailability of sufficient waste datasets was the major reason for
eliminating this research on UAE as a whole and hence dotting either the emirate of Abu

Dhabi or the emirate of Dubai.

The statistical centres for Abu Dhabi and Dubai have been functioning over several years.

Although Dubai is older and hence has wider data sets for the desired waste indicators and

the waste generated, it led to choosing the emirate of Dubai to pursue this research.

Data collected from the Dubai Statistics Center & the official open data portal with the name

of the waste dataset. This dataset is freely available on this platform and can be used in

machine learning data analysis. Dataset would consist of 7 worksheets related to the total

waste amount, gross domestic product, Water consumption, building under construction,

tourism -visitors, population size, and main dataset worksheet.

Therefore, in order to evaluate the factors and the solid waste forecasting for Dubai, historical

data is primarily used from the yearbook, quarterly statistical reports, and other publications

issued by the Dubai Statistics Center and their official open portal. [90] Suppose there are any

gaps in data, such as for "Total collected wastes" for a particular year, in order to fix the

problem. In that case, there will be some approximations for those values based on values

preceding and following the required value. For example, if an estimation is missing for a

year, say 2004, it will be computed as an average of 2003 and 2005. [58]

2.5.2 Data Preprocessing

Data preprocessing and transformation is the second step after collecting a dataset [32]. In

this process, the goal is to try to understand the dataset according to the research study.
The first step is to handle the missing values, irrelevant values, and NA's values. Machine

learning models need data in the numerical form, so it is necessary to transform text data in

numerical form with the help of available natural Language Processing (NLP) approaches if

required [33].

2.5.3 Removing Missing Values

Missing values is the main problem in any dataset while implementing a model or training a

model with a dataset [34]. Therefore it is required to apply some data cleaning techniques for

handling missing values. First, all missing values will be replaced with the average value for

numerical data, and the missing values will be removed from categorical data. After this, the

model will be implemented in RapidMiner so; the RapidMiner tool is used to remove NA

values or missing values. RapidMiner supplies data mining and machine learning processes,

including data loading and transformation (ETLs), data preprocessing and visualization,

predictive analytics and statistical modelling, assessment, and implementation.

2.5.4 Machine learning Model

According to this research study, after data cleaning and transformation data, a machine

learning model will be implemented to analyze waste amount data for predicting the next 10

years' trend. Three machine learning models would be used in the implementation process,

such as Linear regression, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network. These

machine learning methods were used to train the forecasting model and evaluate the model

performance based on the literature review and other sources [37,38]. More details of these

models will be explained in the upcoming sections.

Based on the dataset, the researchers will analyze and visualize the forecasting trend. In other

words, identifying the future trend of the waste amount in UAE, from all past combinations

of the waste amount and the waste amount data.

For analyzing the association between features (attributes) and identifying relationships

between them, a correlation matrix could be used , and other features relation techniques.

With the help of association or correlation finding techniques, one can determine which

variables or features are most important to implement the models for best accuracy and

accurate results [35,36].

Implemented machine learning models using Multiple Linear Regression, SVM, and

Artificial Neural Network(ANN) for the collected data will use 70% for training data and

30% testing data for evaluating the model performance [38]. However, different

combinations of the percentage of training and testing the data could lead to better results.

Multiple linear regression is a statistical technique that uses various explanatory variables to

predict the outcome of a response variable. Multiple regression is a linear (OLS) regression

extension that uses only one explanatory variable. An SVM is a monitored learning machine

that uses classification algorithms for two-group classification problems. They can categorize

new text after giving an SVM model collection of labeled training data for each group. An

artificial neural network (ANN) is a computer device designed to replicate the analysis and

processing of information by the human brain. It is the cornerstone of artificial intelligence

and resolves issues that would be impossible or difficult by human or mathematical

standards. [61]

2.6 Strategies for Data Analysis

This section intends to discuss the process of analyzing the quantitative data in order to

address the third and fourth research questions of examining if the shortlisted socioeconomic

factors have any correlation and compare their results to identify the waste indicators.

Moreover, the applicable waste indicators will predict the waste generation from 2021-2030,
using three different machine learning models. Those models would be created and analyzed

using RapidMiner software.

2.6.1 Socio-Economic Factor Analysis

To evaluate the relationship between the shortlisted factors, GDP, Population, water

consumption, annual tourists visited, number of buildings under construction. And how these

selected factors affect the quantity of waste generated, the researchers will test the stated

hypothesis using a scatter plot and Pearson's correlation analysis. Correlation factor analysis

would provide information on the strength and direction of the linear relationship between

each factor and the waste generated. A correlation coefficient or analysis is used to find

relationships between variables or features of the dataset. This research is needed to find out

the impact of independent variables on the dependent variable [35, 36,39].

To begin with the analysis, the plotting of the xy scatter plot for "Total waste amount" with

other variables must be done in order to visualize the trends and gain a general overview of

the dependence between them. Following this, the calculation of "Pearson correlation"

between each pair of variables will proceed in order to find which factor has the major

influence on waste generation. For example, using these methods (scatter plot and

correlation) for shifted variables, the researchers would check the correlation between the

population size in 2018 and the waste amount in 2018.

Finding dependence is getting some metrics in order to know that one's dependence "is

better" than another. To perform that, it is needed to compute the below defined Pearson

correlation coefficient for each socio-economic factor:

where,
- correlation coefficient
- values of the x-variable in a sample, i.e., annual waste generated
- mean of the values of the x-variable, i.e., mean weight of waste generated
- values of the y-variable in a sample, i.e., the annual amount of each factor
- mean of the values of the y-variable, i.e., mean value of the factor

All the above steps will be repeated for each factor with a shift over time. For this analysis,

based on the hypothesis H01-H05, the following pairs of variables will be computed for

correlation :

○ Waste generated vs. GDP

○ Waste generated vs. Tourist visitors
○ Waste generated vs. population
○ Waste generated vs. Consumed water
○ Waste generated vs. Buildings under construction

On computing the correlation factor for each pair, based on the basic principle [40], the tested

hypothesis will be rejected if the coefficient factors are below 0. However, the factors that

have the highest correlation value will be chosen as the waste indicators that influence waste

generation in Dubai.

2.6.2 Waste Forecast Analysis

In the machine learning forecasting technique used for finding future trends based on past

data. According to the collected data requirements, we need to use these techniques for

predicting future waste amount trends.RapidMiner provides the default forecasting model

such as 'Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average' (ARIMA), Holt-Winters and

windowing models [41]. But we can change the specific model for applying forecasting on

collected data. Linear Regression, SVM and Artificial Neural Network model the three
models with the applied forecast on the waste amount data. By default, the RapidMiner

ARIMA model generates the forecasts for the next ten values [42]. Therefore, the default

model can be used. However, a need to tune the forecast models should be applied while

using different machine learning models.

Note

2.6.2.1 Linear Regression Model

The linear Regression model is mostly used for modeling the relationship between dependent

and independent variables or features [43]. This research study predicts the waste amount and

finds the main factors or indicators that influence the quantity of waste. That's why this

model will help to predict the relationship between variables or factors. In the collected data,

there are many independent variables such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the

quantity of water consumed, population, total buildings under construction, and the number

of visitors, in addition to one dependent variable, which is the variable of our interest which

is the total collected waste. The variable (factor) predicted for which the equation solves is

called the dependent variable. While the independent variables are the factors used to predict

the value of the dependent variable [44]. The following equation could present the simple

linear regression model:

y = α + βX [45]

The equation has two important factors, α, which is the y-intercept of the regression line,

while β is the slope and y is the dependent variable. The regression line could be positive,

negative, or no relationship. If the graphed line has no slope (just a flat line), there is no

relationship between variables. A positive relationship exists when the regression line slopes

upward. In contrast, a negative linear relationship exists if the regression line slopes

downward [46]. From knowing the general trend line between the multiple independent
variables and the dependent variable, we can identify the relationship's strength. Also, it helps

us to understand the effect of the dependent variable on other independent variables. Lastly,

the regression analysis helps in predicting trends and future values. All of these will be

trained using RapidMiner.

2.6.2.2 Support Vector Machine Model

Support Vector Machine (SVM) is one of the popular machine learning algorithms and is

considered one of the most robust and accurate methods among the well-known data mining

algorithms [47].

The capacity of SVM to tackle nonlinear regression assessment issues makes SVM valuable

in time series forecasting [48]. It has become an intriguing issue of escalated concentrate

because of its valuable application in classification and regression models. While using

RapidMiner, we can use this machine learning model before applying the forecast. Support

Vector Machine provides us with a model tune mechanism if the model's output is not

according to the requirements. We can tune the hyper plan parameters while using

RapidMiner studio and apply them to the predicting forecasting model [49].

2.6.2.3 Artificial Neural Network Model

The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is the most used network for forecasting applications

[50]. Also, this model can be applied for short datasets because ANN generates output by

acquiring knowledge from the patterns and relationships of data[51].

Artificial Neural Network is a deep learning modelling approach, and this model facilitates

classification (supervised learning), clustering (unsupervised learning), and regression

analysis. Artificial Neural Network based on the input, output, and hidden layers. The beauty

of this model is it provides the most relevant results compared to other models [52]. The
structure of a neural network algorithm has three layers, as shown in figure 3; the input layer,

which feeds the data values into the next layer (hidden layer), the hidden layer contains

several complex functions that create predictors, those mathematical functions are hidden

from the user. Their role is to modify the input data and make predictions; these functions are

also called neurons. Finally, the output layer has the role of collecting the hidden layer's

predictions and producing the result, which is the model's prediction. [53].

Figure 3 Example of Structure of an ANN model [54]

2.7 Limitations
The literature review benefits the researchers to understand the possible waste indicators for

Dubai, as there are no previous studies or findings conducted in the emirate. Given that the

research deals primarily with statistical data, data gaps are also a very common case in

statistics. Knowing that the region does not have extensive historical records, having gaps in

smaller amounts of data for model training is a limitation to be mindful of.

Population data published after 2005 are primarily a population estimate and were later

validated using the number of people with residential status in Dubai due to employment.

Still, it is understood that they are not necessarily residents of Dubai, which might have a

negligible impact.
The waste generation forecast would be based on the historical data of the waste indicators

and their projections. Hence the predictions of the models would be computed as the period

of the forecast over one year. For example, when predicting waste generation for the year

2025 using population size from previous years, it is needed to estimate the population size in

2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. Therefore it would be beneficial to perform comparative multi-

model forecasting than using a single model for better prediction accuracy.

2.8 Validity and Reliability

While the objective of this research inclines towards an improvement, to provide beneficial

research to decision-makers and waste generating and management stakeholders, and to

hopefully provide a source of study for future researchers. With a detailed research design,

the reliability and the validity of the research data and the consequent research is of utmost

importance as it aids in evaluating the quality of the study. Therefore, this section describes

how the researchers aim to measure the reliability and validity of their research design.

In a quantitative analysis, validity is characterized as the degree to which a definition is

measured accurately. In quantitative studies, the second factor of consistency is the

instrument's reliability or the precision of the measuring instrument. The word "reliability"

has two meanings: first, whether or not you can get the same response each time you repeat a

measurement, and second, how trustworthy a measurement result is. Most simply, study

reliability refers to the consistency and stability of research findings. [56]

Construct validation enables the researchers to understand how the research data and

approach are fairly representative of the entire research the researchers seek to measure. [57]

This validation focuses on following a methodical approach and developing

recommendations by identifying relevant factors and understanding their contribution to

waste generation. After that, develop a forecasting model to predict the waste generated in

Dubai based on these identified factors. Table 1 provides a comprehensive summary of how

the research questions are mapped and how their approaches and outcomes are valid.

Table 1 Research Questions Mapping

S.No Research Question Literature Review Data Intended Outcome

Findings Collection
Tool

1. How can machine Various methods used to Literature · To identify the

learning be evaluate and forecast Review common and
applied in solid waste: appropriate method for
waste ·Generation- ANN, evaluating
management? SVM, partial squares socioeconomic factors
with SVM and their influence on
·Storage, Collection, waste generation.
Transportation-
Multilayer neural · To identify the
network, KNN, Genetic appropriate ML
algorithm (GA), GA approach to forecast
with GIS. waste generation and
·Composting- ANN, compare their
CNN. performance.
·Incineration- MLP-
ANN, SVM, Ann
models.
·Landfill- ANN, MLP-
ANN, and SVM.

2. What are the · GDP Literature · To understand the

possible factors · Urban Population Review waste indicators in
that influence a · Housing units other cities/countries
waste generation? · Number of Tourists and check whether
· Geographical location they are consistent
· Energy consumption and accessible for
· quantity of water Dubai.
consumed. · To identify possible
· Availability or non- factors to study and
availability of shortlist
collector bins corresponding to
· Policies Dubai, UAE.

3. Is there a GDP and population were Statistical To confirm the

 significant significant influences, and Data correlation for UAE's
relationship other factors have statistics, using
between negligible influence in regression analysis.
population growth, UAE.
GDP, and waste
generation in
Dubai?

4. Why does · The most common Statistical To examine the future

Dubai/UAE need disposal method is Data waste generation
to expedite the dumpsite and landfills, predictions for the years
implementation of which account for over 2021-2030 to emphasize
effective and 55%, but is the least improving waste
sustainable waste preferred method management in Dubai
management according to the based on the current
techniques? sustainable waste trends.
hierarchy.
· The performance of the
12th Sustainable
Development Goal
(SDG), Responsible
Consumption And
Protection, is the third-
lowest.
· Improvement on 12th
SDG could create a
significant improvement
in the overall score and
ranking.

To ensure the validity of the above-discussed data, it is essential to test the reliability of the

data as well. To do so, one of the most commonly used assessment tools is to calculate the

internal correlation coefficient, Cronbach's Alpha for each variable's dataset, including the

waste generated. The below formula [40] shows how to compute this coefficient, α, for the

datasets:
Here N is equal to the number of items, in this case, the number of years, c, is the average

inter-item covariance among the items for a variable's dataset and υ Equals their average

variance. The Cronbach alpha coefficient would be computed for each variable, and to

consider them as an acceptable, reliable dataset, the coefficient value must be 0.70 or higher.

These measurement techniques improve the quality of the research and provide sound

quantitative research for the beneficiaries by giving consistent and accurate research.

2.9 Ethics

The data collection process is one of the key phases of any research. Therefore it is also

suggested to have a good practice of prioritizing ethical principles throughout the research

itself. Being sensitive and having credible research can drive the research fundamentally as

well.

A few major ethical considerations that must not be overlooked are professional integrity and

accountability, the integrity of the data and methods, and the responsibilities of research

colleagues and instructors. Ethical considerations are one of the most critical aspects of the

study. Experiment participants should never be placed in any kind of danger. Respect for

research participants' integrity should be considered a significant value. [28] We must first

obtain full consent from the participants before starting the study. Given that this research

comprises a mixed approach, there are situations where the research is approached in

exploratory and explanatory studies. Hence, the researchers need to conduct an impartial and

transparent assessment of the findings and acknowledge all sources of findings and data used

to fulfill this research. Moreover, the researchers are obliged to ensure that their research

practices comply with the intention of the statistical data sources and do not have any

conflict. It is also essential for the researchers to acknowledge the data editing procedures,
including any imputation and missing data mechanisms, thus striving to promote

transparency in the design, execution, reporting, and presenting of all analyses.

Above all, with professionalism during the research phases, the researchers vouch to act in

good faith and manner and strive towards successful research. Therefore, although my study

will not be collating data directly from subjects such as humans or animals, the research

data ethics will mainly focus on data integrity.

3. Conclusion
This report focused on identifying all aspects of the research methodology, including research

philosophy, research design, research approach, and strategy. It also discussed the analysis

methods used in the research depending on the research questions to analyze the available

statistical data of UAE.

The most available and accessible data was the population characteristics, GDP, water

consumption, number of houses being built, and the total number of tourists who visited the

emirate and waste generated statistics of Dubai from Dubai Statistic Center (SDC).

Therefore, this research would primarily focus on analyzing the influence of the shortlisted

waste indicators over the years 2000 to 2020 to forecast the waste generation, if found to be

correlated, using various appropriate algorithms in ML. Furthermore, from the literature, it

was found that the commonly adopted machine learning model used in the field of solid

waste treatment is the Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Therefore, this research will be

implementing machine learning approaches such as linear regression technique, SVM, and

ANN to approach the expected results. Also, these results and findings will help support and

facilitate future research related to waste management in the UAE.

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