13th IFAC Symposium on Control in Transportation Systems

The International Federation of Automatic Control

September 12-14, 2012. Sofia, Bulgaria

Planning for Effective Bus Rapid Transit

Systems: A scenario simulation modelling
based approach ?
George Papageorgiou ∗ Athanasios Maimaris ∗∗
Petros Ioannou ∗∗∗ Thrasos Aphamis ∗∗∗∗
∗
European University Cyprus, Nicosia, CYPRUS
(e-mail:G.Papageorgiou@euc.ac.cy).
∗∗
University of Cyprus, Nicosia, CYPRUS (e-mail:
maimaris@cs.ucy.ac.cy)
∗∗∗
University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA, (e-mail:
ioannou@usc.edu)
∗∗∗∗
Public Works Department, Ministry of Communications and
Works, of the Republic of Cyprus, Nicosia, CYPRUS (e-mail:
taphamis@pwd.mcw.gov.cy)

Abstract: This paper proposes an approach to planing for Bus Rapid Transit Systems via traffic
simulation modelling. The approach concentrates on developing a valid traffic network model
and consequently evaluating a number of BRT scenarios which include the use of dedicated bus
lanes and actuated signal control. This is successfully applied for the case of introducing BRT
systems in Nicosia, Cyprus. Key to the success of proposed approach is scenario planning which
is achieved by carrying out a series of computer experiments. The results presented in this paper
will be useful as a knowledge base in future studies for transportation planning managers and
researchers in order to develop effective strategies to enhance the Bus Transport Mode.

Keywords: Intelligent Transportation Systems, Computer Aided Analysis, Road

Transportation, Computer Simulation

1. INTRODUCTION

On a daily basis in Europe and especially in Cyprus we are

confronted with extended rush hours, road accidents, air
pollution and driver-stress, causing an increasing number
of economic, social, health and environmental problems.
Traffic congestion remains a significant problem in Europe
and in Cyprus which threatens the economic development,
quality of life and prosperity of European citizens. As
shown in Fig 1 there are cities in Europe where a high
percentage of commuters spend more than an hour travel-
ling to work each day.
The traditional policy of governmental departments of
transport in the past was to build more roads in order
to resolve the congestion problem. As a result of this
policy more and more people were attracted to the use Fig. 1. Minutes per day spent travelling to work/training
the private car. This phenomenon is illustrated in Fig place: more than 60 minutes, European Statistical
3 which shows the transport modal split for European Service (2010) (raw data)
countries. As shown in Fig 3, 74% of the people use the
private car for their transportation needs whereas only
? The authors would like to express their acknowledgement to the
8% use the bus and 6% use the train. Considering the
capacity of the bus as related to the private car, there
Research Promotion Foundation and the Structural Funds of the
is a tremendous opportunity for improving efficiency of
European Union in Cyprus, Transim Transportation Research Ltd
and the University of Cyprus for funding and administering the
transport. At the same time convincing people to switch
BUSSIM Research Project. Many thanks also to the staff of the from the private vehicle to the bus transport mode will
Transportation Planning Section of the Public Works Department automatically reduce traffic congestion with its negative
of the Ministry of Communications and Works of the Republic of side effects such as air pollution, delays, and greenhouse
Cyprus for their cooperation. gas emissions.

978-3-902823-13-7/12/$20.00 © 2012 IFAC 366 10.3182/20120912-3-BG-2031.00076

CTS 2012
September 12-14, 2012. Sofia, Bulgaria
Fig. 2. Public Transport satisfaction, European Statistical Service (2010) (raw data)
Car
74%
9%
1%
6% Air (domestic)
1%
8%
Tram
Railway
Waterborne
Bus
Fig. 3. Modal split of passenger transport, European
Statistical Service (2010) (raw data)
The need for improving the service quality for Bus trans-
port mode becomes evident by the low satisfaction rate
depicted in Fig 2. Particularly the situation in Cyprus is
critical since 71% of the people expressed their dissatisfac-
tion for the public transportation system, one of the worst
rates in Europe.
When citizens of the EU were asked why they are not
using public transport, their responses revolved around the
following factors: traffic congestion, frequency of service,
reliability of schedule, not suited to itinerary, expensive,
safety, attractiveness. With an integrated BRT approach
we can take the above factors into consideration when
designing the public transport system.
This paper provides a framework for testing BRT solutions
via computer simulation models. Section 2 goes through
a literature review on the main applications of BRT
worldwide and methods for evaluation. Here we examine
the applications of traffic simulation modeling and the
use of Bus Rapid Transit systems, where the importance
and relevance of such systems is made as a measure
against traffic congestion. Based on the literature review
section 3 presents the proposed BRT evaluation approach
where step by step computer models are developed and
scenario planning is carried out. A demonstration of the
suggested method is described, where a number of BRT
scenario solutions are evaluated for a highly congested
traffic network in Nicosia, Cyprus. Finally, in section 4,
conclusions and recommendations are drawn.
367
2. BUS RAPID TRANSIT
Bus Rapid Transit refers to a number of ways in order
to provide a better level of service for the bus transport
mode. Bus Rapid Transit Systems aim for a high level
of service that could reach that of the railroad transport
mode. This can be achieved at a much lower cost than
constructing a railroad system. There are various types of
Bus Rapid Transit Systems that have been implemented
worldwide. In a seminal report, Levinson et al Levinson
et al. (2003c,b,a) reviews applications of Bus Rapid Transit
Systems in North America, Europe and Australia. Bus
Rapid Transit systems may be classified based on a number
of features including, dedicated bus lanes, attractive bus
stations and bus stops, easily recognized vehicles that
aesthetically convey a strong identity and a respectable
image, easy, comfortable and safe boarding and alighting,
off-vehicle fare collection, frequent service all day.
Further, BRT systems can be enhanced by Intelligent
Transportation Systems (ITS) such as Traffic Signal Pri-
ority detect the presence of a bus arriving at a signalized
intersection and help the bus advance faster Smart card
fare collection methods use read-and-write technology to
store value on a microprocessor chip inside a plastic card
Automatic vehicle location (AVL) systems enable transit
authority to track their vehicles in real time and provide
them with information for making timely schedule ad-
justments and equipment substitutions Computer-aided
dispatching and advanced communications are systems
that enable transit dispatchers, in combination with AVL
systems, to maintain bus system efficiency by performing
service restoration activities and communicating instruc-
tions to and receiving messages from drivers Passenger
information systems give passengers the means to make
informed decisions about their transit travel Automated
enforcement systems for exclusive bus lanes are being
enhanced by new technology, including automatic video
cameras and infrared sensors.
Central to the success of a bus rapid transit system is
the use of dedicated bus lanes, which would make the bus
transport mode really rapid. Further, bus priority could
be given to buses at signalized intersections via extending
CTS 2012
September 12-14, 2012. Sofia, Bulgaria
the green phase so that the bus can pass through the
intersection without having to stop, or by starting the
green phase earlier if a bus is detected approaching the
intersection. In this way buses are differentiated from the
rest of the traffic.
Evidence from several studies TRB and NRC (2001);
Currie (2005) suggests that Bus Rapid Transit increases
the quality of service of public transportation, which
increases bus ridership at very high levels. Further, in
order to maximize the effect of BRT, there are a number of
factors that have to be taken in consideration such as dwell
time, the opportunity of buses to overtake each other, and
provision of multiple-bus-berth stops. Bus Rapid Transit
is beneficial not only to those who already use the bus
and those who shift to the bus transport mode due to the
improved service but also those who continue to use the
private car as they experience less traffic congestion.
In our case Nicosia and particular Archangelou Avenue
represents a candidate for the introduction of BRT systems
in Cyprus. Starting with dedicated bus lanes and bus
advance areas, the next step would be to move on to
signal preemption. Then other BRT characteristics may be
employed such as appropriate vehicles with easy and com-
fortable boarding and alighting, comfortable bus stops,
frequent service, off-vehicle fare collection and so on. Once
the benefits of BRT are realized the concept could be
implemented all over Nicosia and all over Cyprus as a
long term strategy to solve the rising problem of traffic
congestion.
Regarding the use of traffic simulation, studies were suc-
cessfully carried out in many cases for solving transporta-
tion problems and especially in the evaluation of new
transport designs. For the case of public transport sev-
eral recent studies are reported as follows. Muthuswamy
et al Muthuswamy et al. (2007) evaluate transit signal
priority and optimal signal timing plans on transit and
traffic operations. They utilize a traffic simulation model
using WATSim in order to study the impact of transit
signal Priority. Liao and Davis Liao and Davis (2007)
in another study employ AIMSUN simulation modeler
to examine a Bus Signal Priority Strategy based on a
global positioning system, automated vehicle location and
wireless communications. Using the simulation results they
conclude that providing bus signal priority would improve
bus travel time by 12-15% during the morning peak and
4-11% during the afternoon peak. Yet another study Zhou
and Gan (2005) based on a microscopic simulation model
using VISSIM examines the performance of transit signal
priority with queue jumper lanes. A microsimulation-based
transit prediction model Lee et al. (2005) was also used for
more effective transit priority operations.
While traffic simulation models will never be able to pre-
dict fully the actual traffic conditions, they are probably
the best means to evaluate potential traffic management
strategies prior to their implementation. Traffic simulation
modeling is still under research and development and we
are looking forward to seeing better modelers in the near
future. The work presented in this paper apart from evalu-
ating plausible BRT scenarios, it partly contributes to the
better understanding of the concept of traffic simulation
368
Problem Model Model Model
Model
Start Validation
Definition Objectives Development Calibration (Real Data)
no
Is the
End yes Problem no
Is the model
Acceptable?
Solved?
yes
Implement
Solution
Evaluate
Results
Test Scenarios
via Simulation
Prepare
Scenarios
Fig. 4. The Proposed Traffic Modeling and Simulation
Method ( Adapted from Papageorgiou et al. (2009))
modeling as well to the provision of insights regarding their
capabilities and limitations.
3. THE PROPOSED MODELING AND SIMULATION
APPROACH
As described above, traffic phenomena constitute a dy-
namical problem situation, which makes traffic modeling
and simulation a very complex, iterative and tedious pro-
cess. In order to increase our chances for developing a
realistic simulation model the following methodology is
adopted, which is based on the suggestions of Lieberman
and Rathi Lieberman and Rathi (1997) and Dowling et al
Dowling et al. (2004). This is applied for the modeling of
Archangelou Avenue traffic network as described below.
As shown in Fig. 4, the first step of the proposed approach
is to identify and define the problem. In our case the
symptoms of the problem, which are attributed to traffic
congestion manifest themselves as increasing travel times
for all transport modes. As explained in the introductory
section the main causes to the problem of traffic congestion
in Nicosia consist of the increasing number of vehicles
and the decreasing use of the bus transportation system.
Adding more capacity to the road infrastructure will only
make things worse, as a reinforcing feedback loop is created
where further use of private vehicles is encouraged and use
of the public transport is discouraged. Therefore, the long
term solution to the problem is to balance or even turn
around the situation by encouraging the use of the public
transport mode.
The question then becomes how do we attract people
to use the bus transportation system. The answer to
this was given by the citizens of Cyprus in a recent
survey Department of Transportation (2009) where they
expressed their wish for higher quality, faster public bus
transport system. This is what we aim to investigate in
the BUSSIM project concentrating on providing a faster
and better quality level of service for bus passengers. The
objective therefore in our modeling and simulation method
is to examine various scenarios such as dedicated bus lanes
and Bus Rapid Transit Intelligent Systems that would
provide a better level of service for the bus transportation
system. Meanwhile, we need to anticipate and assess
any side effects of plausible solutions to the rest of the
transportation system.
Based on the stated model objectives, a microscopic sim-
ulation model of Archangelou Avenue is developed. Like
any other traffic network, Archangelou Avenue consists of
many traffic parameters that need to be taken into ac-
CTS 2012
September 12-14, 2012. Sofia, Bulgaria
Fig. 5. The Traffic Simulation Model Showing The Proposed Road Design for Dedicated Bus Lane (DBL), Bus Advance
(BA), Signal Controllers (SC), Locations A, B and C
count. These include traffic control signals, priority rules,
routing decisions, and pedestrian crossings, signalized and
un-signalized intersections and so on. A helicopter view of
the simulation model of Archangelou Avenue is depicted
in Fig. 5. Fig. 5 shows the proposed layout of Archangelou
Ave, which is a five-lane road, approximately 3 kilometers
long, as well as the main roads that intersect Archangelou
Avenue, which include signalized intersections (SC1, SC2,
SC3, SC4). Fig. 5 also shows potential areas for introduc-
ing dedicated bus lanes (DBL1, DBL2, DBL3, DBL4) and
bus advance areas (BA1, BA2, BA3). These are evaluated
in the next section under traffic scenario analysis.
The model incorporates a significant amount of various
traffic data that may be classified in terms of static data
and dynamic data. Static data represents the roadway
infrastructure. It includes links, which are directional road-
way segments with a specified number of lanes, with start
and end points as well as optional intermediate points. Fur-
ther, static data includes connectors between links, which
are used to model turnings, lane drops and lane gains,
locations and length of transit stops, position of signal
heads/stop lines including a reference to the associated sig-
nal group, and positions and length of detectors. Dynamic
data also needs to be specified for our traffic simulation
applications. It includes traffic volumes including vehicle
mix for all links entering the network, locations of route
decision points with routes, that is the link sequences to be
followed, differentiated by time and vehicle classification,
priority rules, right-of-way to model un-signalized inter-
sections, permissive turns at signalized intersections and
yellow boxes or keep-clear-areas, locations of stop signs,
public transport routing, departure times and dwell times.
Having introduced the necessary traffic parameters in
our model, we enter the iterative process, which consists
of model development calibration and validation. Going
through several iterations in developing the model, we are
in a position to present some optimistic results concerning
the validity of our model.
Specifically model estimated volumes are compared to field
counts using widely acceptable GEH statistic which is
calculated to be less than 5 for individual link flows for
more than 85% of the cases and less than 4 for the sum
of all link flows. Further, individual link flows pass the
calibration acceptance targets of 15% for more than 85%
of the cases. Also, model travel times exhibit a difference
of less than 15% for more than 87% of the cases. Finally,
visual audits on individual link speed flow relationships
369
and on queuing were carried out and characterized as
acceptable to the analyst satisfaction.
With a validated model in our hands, next comes the
preparation of BRT scenarios, their evaluation and the
analysis of the results. After consultations with the trans-
portation planning section of the Ministry of Commu-
nications and Works we came up with several plausible
scenarios.
The scenario analysis carried out has taken into considera-
tion the future demand for every transport mode. Further,
the model has been run several times utilizing the random
seed generator of the simulation software and the output
has been reviewed in order to correct any biases or errors
before the traffic analysis results were generated. Further,
the analysis of the results presented in this section includes
hypothesis testing, computation of confidence intervals
and sensitivity analysis. As suggested by Dowling et al.
(2004) the process of analysis of the alternative scenar-
ios consists of forecasting demand, generating alternative
solutions, selecting appropriate measures of effectiveness,
running the simulation models, tabulating the results and
evaluating the alternatives.
The first step is to establish the future level of demand for
every transport mode to be used as a basis for evaluation
of the alternative scenarios. The best way to forecast
travel demand is to create a travel demand model but
this requires a lot of time and effort to be calibrated and
validated. In our case the travel demand was forecasted by
using historical growth rate data. Assuming that the recent
percentage of growth in traffic will continue in the future,
a trend line forecast was made for the next five years.
To ensure that the forecasts are a reasonable estimate of
the actual volumes of traffic that can arrive within the
analytical period of the study area, future demands were
constrained to the physical ability of the transportation
system to deliver the traffic to the microsimulation study
area. Further, uncertainty regarding the probable growth
in demand and available capacity was taken into consider-
ation using sensitivity testing. This was necessary as un-
certainty could significantly affect future traffic conditions.
The success of any Bus Rapid Transit scheme relies on
buses providing fast and reliable service. It is therefore
essential that the bus enjoys priority in relation to other
vehicles. Achieving priority entails major changes in the
current road infrastructure with the addition of bus ded-
icated lanes as well as changes in the traffic management
CTS 2012
September 12-14, 2012. Sofia, Bulgaria

schemes with the introduction of extra traffic lights for bus

BUS BUS
advance as well as signal preemption at road intersections. (a) Two Bus Lanes,
General Traffic
Considering the layout of Archangelou Avenue, there are BUS restricted to two lanes
BUS BUS
a number of possible solutions for dedicated bus lanes.
One possibility is the construction of two dedicated bus (b) One Bus Lane in
the Middle,
lanes, one in each direction Fig. 6a. Such a solution would BUS BUS
General Traffic in four
be optimum for the bus transport mode but there are BUS lanes
serious space limitations. As a result, a more realistic
BUS (c) No Dedicated Bus
alternative that emerges is a single bus lane on either the Lane,
right or left hand side of the road (Fig. 6e). An innovative General Traffic in four
alternative, which could handle space restrictions, would BUS lanes
be a single bus lane in the middle of the road (Fig. 6b). The BUS
(d) No Dedicated Bus
BUS
option of creating underground bus tunnels or elevated Lane,
bus lanes is not considered here as the high expense and General Traffic in five
lanes
disruption to the traffic while construction is carried out BUS
would be disastrous for the city of Nicosia. In addition to BUS BUS (e) One Dedicated Bus
the above alternatives, bus advance areas before signalized Lane,
intersections could be employed in order to ensure that General Traffic in four
lanes
buses are allowed to enter the main traffic stream and BUS
proceed rapidly through the signalized intersection. BUS BUS (f) One Bus / High
Occupancy Vehicle
The first alternative of two dedicated bus lanes (see Fig. Lane,
6a) one in each direction of the road would definitely be General Traffic in four
BUS lanes
the most attractive solution for the public transport and
the best way of speeding up buses. The existing space
constraints however, do not permit the construction of two Fig. 6. Bus Priority Scenarios
extra dedicated bus lanes on top of the projected four-lane
road. Therefore, in order to have two dedicated bus lanes
one in each direction, the projected four-lane road should conditions for both the bus and private vehicle transport
be reduced to a two-lane road for the general traffic as modes.
two of the lanes become bus lanes. The layout of such a
Another alternative suggested by the public works depart-
scenario is depicted in Fig. 6a. With the current volumes of
ment of the ministry of communications and works is a
traffic though, clearly such a scenario would make things
single dedicated bus lane towards Nicosia center (Fig. 6e).
worse for all transport modes including the bus as at the
Such a bus lane would provide service to commuters on
end of the dedicated lane a huge bottleneck would be
their way to Nicosia city Center, considering the impor-
created. This has been tested in a previous study and it
tance of being on time during the morning peak. This
was verified that the traffic conditions would be worse for
might be a good solution for roads where the worst delays
every transport mode Papageorgiou et al. (2006)
are during the morning and where the traffic load towards
The next viable option that space constraints permit is the suburbs in the afternoon and evening peaks are lower
that of a single bus lane in the middle of a four lane road and fewer delays are expected.
(Fig. 6b). Ideally, the single bus lane would be utilized
Further, it would be interesting to investigate the intro-
by buses going to Nicosia center during the morning peak
duction of a HOV lane in conjunction to the dedicated
hour as well as by buses returning during the afternoon
bus lane, as shown in Fig. 6f. In such a case, a number
peak hour.
of sub-scenarios emerge using what-if analysis whereby a
Of course among the scenarios to be evaluated is the percentage of commuters are switching to carpooling.
”no alteration” option, which could serve as the base
The case of the HOV lane was studied in detail in Papa-
scenario for comparison with all other alternatives (Fig.
georgiou et al. (2009). Results showed that traffic condi-
6c). This scenario was used to validate the simulation
tions significantly deteriorate when the dedicated bus lane
model as explained in the previous section. Carrying out
is simultaneously used for both buses and HOV vehicles.
traffic analysis of the above scenario reaffirmed the direct
The traffic conditions for the car on the other hand are
observations that major congestion bottlenecks exist. As
significantly improved but this is not good for the long
expected under this scenario, the level of service for the
run.
private car/bus transport modes deteriorates to unbear-
able levels TRB and NRC (2001). Carrying out a screening of the above preliminary alterna-
tives on the criteria of traffic assessment using highway
Another alternative that is worth examining is the pro-
capacity manual principles TRB (2010), environmental
jected single bus lane to be freely utilized by all transport
constraints, design feasibility, and constructibility. As a re-
modes, as shown in Fig. 6d. It has to be noted that this
sult, two basic feasible alternatives are derived for further
option does not discourage the use of private vehicles, and
evaluation:
in the long term it would attract higher volumes of private
cars and therefore increase traffic congestion. It would be • No Bus Priority Scenario (NBP): a three lane arte-
useful though, to serve as a basis of comparison of traffic rial towards Nicosia center and two lanes returning,
available to all transport modes

370
CTS 2012
September 12-14, 2012. Sofia, Bulgaria
• Dedicated Bus Lane (DBL) Scenario: a number of sec-
tions of dedicated bus lanes directed towards Nicosia
center on the left hand side of the road (see Fig. 6)
Carrying out a series of computer experiments and formal
hypothesis testing the performance of the network is eval-
uated for the above scenarios. The above scenarios were
evaluated for specific Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs)
Dowling (2007). Appropriate MOEs for our study were se-
lected among many in order to avoid information overload
and focus on few key indicators of system performance,
bottlenecks in the system and safety issues. As a result,
travel time is used as the basis for evaluation as well as
network average speed. Further, queue length, insufficient
signal green times were selected as a basis of traffic analysis
in order to evaluate localized system breakdowns which
might be due to queues that last too long, signal phase
failures and blocked links.
In particular, with the combined DBL and BA solution
we have managed to reduce bus travel time by 22.5%
based non an anticipated 10% increase in traffic volumes.
Further, the traffic conditions for the bus were improved
by the introduction of signal preemption by 12%. The
negative effect on the car transport mode was rather
minimal with a 4% increase in travel time.
4. CONCLUSIONS
Computer simulation proves to be a very powerful tool
for analyzing complex dynamical problems such as the
case of congested roads. On the other hand, the devel-
opment of computer simulation models requires extensive
time, effort, rigor and high persistence. In this paper, an
approach to modeling and simulating traffic networks is
proposed and implemented. The approach goes through
various stages, which include problem identification, model
objectives, model development, model calibration, model
validation, scenario preparation, simulation experiments
and simulated results evaluation. This is applied in the
case of developing a microscopic traffic simulation model
for the urban traffic network of Archangelou Avenue,
Nicosia, Cyprus in order to assess alternative bus transport
mode enhancement scenarios.
By examining a number of options regarding the use of the
proposed dedicated bus lane and going through detailed
traffic analysis via computer simulation experimentation,
a viable solution is derived, where specific measures of
effectiveness show significant improvements for the bus
transport mode while any negative effects to the rest of
the traffic are minimal.
The work presented in this paper could be utilized as a
knowledge base for future transportation planning studies
in other areas of Cyprus, where the bus transport mode
level of service could be improved.
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