PERT /CPM CALCULATIONS

Steps:
1. Define the tasks
2. Draw the network diagram, draw your key box
3. Place tasks in logical order, find the critical path
 The longest time path through the task network. The series of tasks (or even a
single task) that dictates the calculated finish date.
4. Generate the estimates
I. Optimistic, pessimistic , most likely and PERT –expected time
II. Use table to organize your calculations
III. Based on input of 3 estimated durations per task
i. Most Optimistic(a)- best case scenario
ii. Most likely(m)- normal scenario
iii. Most Pessimistic (b)- worst case scenario

Expected Task Duration (Et )= a+4m+b

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IV. Complete this Et calculations for all tasks

V. Standard Deviation and Variance

i. Standard Deviation (SD) is the average deviation from the estimated time
ii. SD = b-a /6 or pessimistic-optimistic/6
iii. As a general rule, the higher the standard deviation the greater the amount of
uncertainty
iv. Variance (V) reflects the spread of value over a normal distribution
1. V=SD2 (standard deviation squared)
VI. Set up table to organize data
5. Determine earliest and latest date
I. For each task, determine the lasts allowable time for moving to the next task. The
difference between latest time and expected time is called slack time. Tasks with zero
slack time are on the critical path
6. Determine probability of meeting expected date/time
Manually computing probability using data compiled in your table
I. Determine probability of meeting a date by using the table data
i. Denote the sum of all expected durations on the critical path as S.
ii. Denote the sum of all variances on the critical path as V
iii. Select a desired completion time, denote this as D or X
iv. COMPUTE :D-S/square root (V) =Z (the number of std deviations that the due
date is away from expected date)
v. Use a standard normal table to find a probability that corresponds with Z

7. END of STEPS

CPM/PERT STEPS Page 1 of 1