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Euromoney Country Risk

Q1 2019 RESULTS
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction (Scoring)
2. Q/Q update
3. Y/Y update
4. Contacts
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SCORING

Euromoney Country Risk is a platform designed to capture and aggregate the

views of country risk experts.
It comprises real-time country risk scores for over 180 markets in 15 categories
that relate to economic, structural and political risk
There are over 400 experts (primarily economists) who are surveyed quarterly
Historical data sets are available:
Annual data back to 1993 and quarterly data back to 2011
Our subscriber base is primarily corporate treasurers, but also includes SWFs,
asset managers, banks (FX, Risk, Sovereign debt issuance)
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GLOBAL MOVEMENTS: Q4 2018 – Q1 2019

Region Score Rank
Up Down Up Down
Africa 17 6 7 14

Americas 7 8 1 3

Asia 14 11 6 5

Australasia 1 3 0 2

Caribbean 2 1 3 2

Central & Eastern

9 14 5 6
Europe

Middle East 5 5 1 3

Western Europe 6 9 0 0

Total 61 57 23 35
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QUARTERLY – GLOBAL TOP/BOTTOM 5

Country 2019 Q1 Score Q/Q Change
Nepal 31.89 5.58

Ethiopia 34.89 1.16

Top 5 Gambia 30.39 0.89

Liberia 34.23 0.64

Bhutan 25.5 0.61

Jordan 45.53 -0.23

Bolivia 40.36 -0.24

Bottom 5 Uzbekistan 35.16 -0.31

Costa Rica 47.4 -0.46

Montenegro 35.34 -1
Q4 2018 – Q1 2019 - AFRICA
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Top 5 - Africa Bottom 5 - Africa

45 1.4

40 1.16 1.2

35 1
0.89
30 0.8
2018 Q4 SCORE

0.64
25 0.6

Q/Q CHANGE
20 0.4
0.26
15 0.22 0.2

10 0
-0.14 -0.14 -0.15
5 -0.21 -0.22 -0.2

0 -0.4
Ethiopia Gambia Liberia Egypt Uganda Algeria Zambia Zimbabwe Tanzania Sudan

2019 Q1 Score Q/Q

 Q4 2018 – Q1 2019 - AMERICAS
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Top 5 - Americas Bottom 5 - Americas

90 0.4

80 0.3
0.27
70 0.21 0.2
0.14
60 0.12 0.1
0.07
2018 Q4 SCORE

Q/Q CHANGE
50 0

40 -0.1 -0.1
-0.12
-0.15
30 -0.2
-0.24
20 -0.3

10 -0.4
-0.46
0 -0.5
Colombia Panama Venezuela Chile Peru Mexico United Canada Bolivia Costa Rica
States

2019 Q1 Score Score Q/Q

 Q4 2018 – Q1 2019 - ASIA
8

Top 5 - Asia Bottom 5 - Asia

60 6
5.58
5
50

4
40
2018 Q4 SCORE

Q/Q CHANGE
3
30
2

20
1
0.61
0.42
10 0.19 0.12
-0.06 0
-0.1 -0.13 -0.18 -0.31

0 -1
Nepal Bhutan Maldives Mauritius Sri Lanka Indonesia India Korea North Pakistan Uzbekistan

2019 Q1 Score Score Q/Q

 Q4 2018 – Q1 2019 - AUSTRALASIA
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Bottom 5 - Australasia
Top 5 - Australasia
90 0.15

80
0.1
0.09
70
0.05
60
2018 Q4 SCORE

Q/Q CHANGE
50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

40 -0.05 -0.05

30
-0.1
20 -0.12
-0.15 -0.15
10

0 -0.2
New Zeland Vanuatu Samoa Solomon Tonga Micronesia New Fiji Papua New Australia
Islands (Fed. Caledonia Guinea
States)
2019 Q1 Score Score Q/Q
 Q4 2018 – Q1 2019 - CARIBBEAN
10

Top 5 - Caribbean Bottom 5 - Caribbean

60 0.25
0.21 0.2
0.19
50
0.15

0.1
40
2018 Q4 SCORE

Q/Q CHANGE
0.05

30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-0.05
20
-0.1

-0.15
10
-0.2
-0.22
0 -0.25
Jamaica Barbados Grenada Trinidad & Bahamas Dominica Haiti Cuba Antigua & Bermuda
Tobago Barbuda

2019 Q1 Score Score Q/Q

 Q4 2018 – Q1 2019 - CEE
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Top 5 - CEE Bottom 5 - CEE

80 0.4
0.27 0.26
70 0.2 0.18 0.2

60 0.06 0
-0.11 -0.15 -0.15
50 -0.19 -0.2
2018 Q4 SCORE

Q/Q CHANGE
40 -0.4

30 -0.6

20 -0.8

10 -1 -1

0 -1.2
Russia Georgia Croatia Hungary Moldova Slovenia Czech Estonia Romania Montenegro
Republic

2019 Q1 Score Score Q/Q

 Q4 2018 – Q1 2019 – MIDDLE EAST
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Top 5 - Middle East Bottom 5 – Middle East

70 0.15

0.11 0.1
60
0.06
0.05
50 0.04
0.01 0.01
2018 Q4 SCORE

0
-0.01
40 -0.02 -0.02

Q/Q CHANGE
-0.05
30
-0.1
-0.13
20
-0.15

10 -0.2
-0.23
0 -0.25
Saudi Bahrain Iraq Syria United Arab Kuwait Iran Lebanon Oman Jordan
Arabia Emirates

2019 Q1 Score Score Q/Q

 Q4 2018 – Q1 2019 – WESTERN EUROPE
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Top 5 - Western Europe Bottom 5 – Western Europe

100 0.5

90
0.4 0.4
80

70 0.3

Q/Q CHANGE
2018 Q4 SCORE

60
0.2
50
0.1
40 0.07
0.03
30 0.02 0.01 0
-0.04
20 -0.06 -0.06 -0.07 -0.08 -0.1
10

0 -0.2
Greece Sweden Austria Portugal Netherlands United Germany Iceland Ireland Belgium
Kingdom
2019 Q1 Score Score Q/Q
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GLOBAL MOVEMENTS: Q1 2019-2018

Region Score Rank
Up Down Up Down
Africa 43 6 12 32

Americas 17 5 6 11

Asia 22 10 10 13

Australasia 10 1 4 1

Caribbean 8 5 1 9

Central & Eastern

21 4 13 7
Europe

Middle East 7 6 4 6

Western Europe 18 1 8 3

Total 146 38 58 82
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YEAR ON YEAR – GLOBAL TOP/BOTTOM 5

Country 2019 Q1 Score Y/Y Change
Nepal 31.89 9.11

Egypt 38.41 5.46

Top 5 Slovenia 68.58 5.42

Greece 40.22 5.18

Angola 36.87 5.06

Korea South 69.19 -2.57

Panama 51.5 -3.09

Bottom 5 Macau 67.56 -4.11

Brunei 49.23 -4.28

Bermuda 52.37 -4.5

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Q1 2018 – Q1 2019 – AFRICA

Top 5 - Africa Bottom 5 – Africa
60 6
5.46
5.06
5
4.86 4.77 4.75
50
4

40 3
2018 Q4 SCORE

Y/Y CHANGE
2
30
1

20 -0.06 0
-0.25
-0.68
-1
10
-2.1 -2
-2.22

0 -3
Egypt Angola Dem. Rep. Côte d‘Ivoire Ghana Tanzania Zambia Seychelles Algeria South Africa
Of the
Congo
2019 Q1 Score Score Y/Y
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Q1 2018 – Q1 2019 – AMERICAS

Top 5 - Americas Bottom 5 – Americas
90 4

80 2.94 3
2.65
70
1.86 1.84 2
1.78
60
2018 Q4 Score

Y/Y change
50
-0.02 0
-0.2 -0.22
40
-1
30 -1.14

-2
20

10 -3.09 -3

0 -4
Belize Bolivia Honduras Chile Ecuador Canada Peru Costa Rica Nicaragua Panama

2019 Q1 Score Score Y/Y

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Q1 2018-Q1 2019 – ASIA

Top 5 - Asia Bottom 5 – Asia
80 10
9.11
70 8

60 6

50 4.33 4
2018 Q4 Score

Y/Y change
3.13
40 2.18 1.9
2

30 0

-1.53
20 -2.01 -2.57
-2

10 -4.11 -4.28 -4

0 -6
Nepal Uzbekistan Armenia Mongolia China Malaysia Philippines Korea South Macau Brunei

2019 Q1 Score Score Y/Y

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Q1 2018-Q1 2019 – AUSTRALASIA

Top 5 - Australasia Bottom 5 – Australasia
90 2.5

80
2.09
1.96 2
70
1.6
60 1.5
2018 Q4 Score

Y/Y change
50
1 1
0.91
40 0.76
0.6 0.57
30 0.45 0.5

20
0
10
-0.24
0 -0.5
Vanuatu Papua New Micronesia New Samoa Marshall Tonga Solomon New Fiji
Guinea (Fed. Caledonia Islands Islands Zealand
States)

2019 Q1 Score Score Y/Y

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Q1 2018-Q1 2019 – CARIBBEAN

Top 5 - Caribbean Bottom 5 –Caribbean
60 3

2.12 2
50
0.97 1
0.89 0.74
40 0.74
-0.05
2018 Q4 Score

Y/Y change
-0.4 -0.42 -0.65
30 -1

-2
20
-3
10
-4
-4.5
0 -5
Trinidad & Grenada Jamaica St Lucia Dominican Cuba Bahamas Dominica Antigua & Bermuda
Tobago Republic Barbuda

2019 Q1 Score Score Y/Y

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Q1 2018 – Q1 2019 – CEE

Top 5 - CEE Bottom 5 –CEE
80 6
5.42
70 4.97 5
4.74
60 3.84 4
3.34
2018 Q4 Score

50 3

40 2

30 1
0.45
20 0
-0.23
10 -0.84 -0.84 -0.9 -1

0 -2

2019 Q1 Score Score Y/Y

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Q1 2018 – Q1 2019 – MIDDLE EAST

Top 5 - Middle East Bottom 5 –Middle East
80 5

70 4.3
4
3.71
60
3
2.62
2018 Q4 Score

50

Y/Y change
1.96 2
40 1.36
1
30

0
20
-0.42 -0.54 -0.62

10 -1
-1.35 -1.39
0 -2
Iraq Lebanon Jordan Yemen Kuwait Qatar Saudi Bahrain Oman United Arab
Arabia Emirates
2019 Q1 Score Score Y/Y
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Q1 2018 – Q1 2019 – WESTERN EUROPE

Top 5 - Western Europe Bottom 5 –Western Europe
100 6

90 5.18 5
80
4
70 3.48
3.5
3.22
3
2018 Q4 Score

60 2.69

Y/Y change
50 2

40
1
0.51 0.49 0.46
30 0.4
0
20
-0.88 -1
10

0 -2
Greece Italy Portugal Spain Ireland France Belgium Germany Sweden Iceland

2019 Q1 Score Score Y/Y

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CONTACTS
Amelia Lowe
Programme Manager
Euromoney Country Risk
Tel: 0207 779 7311
amelia.lowe@euromoney.com

Patrick McCulloch
Subscription Sales
Euromoney Data
Patrick.mcculloch@euromoneyplc.com