Intrinsic Value Estimate

Best case Base case

Forward PE Rp34,524 Rp27,704
Simplified DCF Rp28,520 Rp26,180
Intrisic Value Rp32,720 Rp27,240 Focus on Forward PE Valuation (70:30)

MoS 31.16% 17.31%

Current Price Rp22,525 as of 13 April 2021
n Forward PE Valuation (70:30)
 EPS
Forward PE Ratio 2015 1033
UNTR 2016 1341 29.82%
Current EPS (2020) 1,609.00 2017 1985 48.02%
EPS growth (5Y average) 32.4% 2018 2983 50.28%
EPS (forward 2021) 2,131.09 2019 3033 1.68%
2020 1609 -46.95%
PE Band +1 16.2 Growth 32.45%
PE Band Mean 13
PE Band -1 9.7

Best case Rp34,524

Base case Rp27,704
Worst case Rp20,672

Current Price Rp22,725 as of 9 April 2021

MoS
Best case 34.18%
Base case 17.97%
Worst case -9.93%

Forward PE Band
excluding 2020 because of one time event (not relevant)
Telkom Indonesia (TLKM)
Valuation

Input Assumption

Tax rate %
Cost of debt %
Cost of equity %
Debt-to-asset %
Discount rate (WACC) %
Growth rate 1 %
Terminal value growth rate %
Shares outstanding # of shares

DCF Valuation 2016 2017

Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF)

Operating cashflow (CFO) IDR bn 10,005,397,000,000 11,951,265,000,000
Add back: interest payment * (1-tax) IDR bn 559,807,560,000 835,442,400,000
Less: Capex IDR bn 2,793,501,000,000 6,765,352,000,000
Total FCFF IDR bn 7,771,703,560,000 6,021,355,400,000
Terminal Value IDR bn
717702000000 1071080000000
Discount factor x

PV of FCFF & Terminal Value IDR bn

NPV of FCFF (Expected Market Value) IDR bn

Less: Net debt IDR bn net debt = utang berbunga - kas

Fair Value (Rounded) IDR / share
2541920000000 6586219000000 10346766000000
154224000000 1125152000000 16956830000000

2696144000000 7711371000000 27303596000000

 22.0% pajak perusahaan
1.6% rata-rata % bunga semua pinjaman/utang
13.0% return yang diharapkan investor
60.8% rasio utang dari total aset
6.1% rata-rata biaya utang + modal
12.0% growth perusahaan di jangka pendek (CAGR 5Y)
5.2% growth perusahaan di jangka panjang
3,730,135,136 jumlah saham beredar

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

1 2

19,209,753,000,000 9,435,985,000,000 18,557,088,000,000

1,394,408,340,000 1,575,176,460,000 1,046,808,360,000
10,758,357,000,000 10,813,289,000,000 4,671,216,000,000
9,845,804,340,000 197,872,460,000 14,932,680,360,000 16,724,602,003,200 18,731,554,243,584

1787703000000 2019457000000 1342062000000

0.94 0.89

15,764,069,484,612 16,641,746,874,952

88,099,529,930,112

berbunga - kas -9,576,002,000,000

26,180
9354644000000 2860452000000
0 1838000000

9354644000000 2862290000000
 2023 2024 2025
3 4 5

20,979,340,752,814 23,496,861,643,152 26,316,485,040,330

3,099,606,158,778,730

0.84 0.79 0.74

17,568,289,667,861 18,546,418,484,374 19,579,005,418,313

Telkom Indonesia (TLKM)
Valuation

Input Assumption

Tax rate % 22.0%

Cost of debt % 1.6%
Cost of equity % 12.0%
Debt-to-asset % 60.8%
Discount rate (WACC) % 5.7%
Growth rate 1 % 15.0%
Terminal value growth rate % 5.2%
Shares outstanding # of shares 3,730,135,136

DCF Valuation 2016 2017 2018

Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF)

Operating cashflow (CFO) IDR bn 10,005,397,000,000 11,951,265,000,000 19,209,753,000,000
Add back: interest payment * (1-tax) IDR bn 559,807,560,000 835,442,400,000 1,394,408,340,000
Less: Capex IDR bn 2,793,501,000,000 6,765,352,000,000 10,758,357,000,000
Total FCFF IDR bn 7,771,703,560,000 6,021,355,400,000 9,845,804,340,000
Terminal Value IDR bn
717702000000 1071080000000 1787703000000
Discount factor x

PV of FCFF & Terminal Value IDR bn

NPV of FCFF (Expected Market Value) IDR bn

Less: Net debt IDR bn net debt = utang berbunga - kas

Fair Value (Rounded) IDR / share
2541920000000 6586219000000 10346766000000 9354644000000
154224000000 1125152000000 16956830000000 0

2696144000000 7711371000000 27303596000000 9354644000000

pajak perusahaan
rata-rata % bunga semua pinjaman/utang
return yang diharapkan investor
rasio utang dari total aset
rata-rata biaya utang + modal
growth perusahaan
growth perusahaan di jangka panjang
jumlah saham beredar

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

1 2 3

9,435,985,000,000 18,557,088,000,000
1,575,176,460,000 1,046,808,360,000
10,813,289,000,000 4,671,216,000,000
197,872,460,000 14,932,680,360,000 17,172,582,414,000 19,748,469,776,100 22,710,740,242,515

2019457000000 1342062000000
0.95 0.90 0.85

16,246,350,178,695 17,675,587,219,814 19,230,558,256,398

96,837,740,204,795

-9,576,002,000,000
28,520
2860452000000
1838000000

2862290000000
 2024 2025
4 5

26,117,351,278,892 30,034,953,970,726
6,304,586,617,350,515

0.80 0.76

20,922,324,461,061 22,762,920,088,827