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Neural networks in climate spatialization and their application in the

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ISSN: 0365-0340 (Print) 1476-3567 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/gags20

Neural networks in climate spatialization and their

application in the agricultural zoning of climate
risk for sunflower in different sowing dates

Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido, José Reinaldo da Silva Cabral de

Moraes, Glauco de Souza Rolim, Lucieta Guerreiro Martorano, Kamila Cunha
de Meneses & Taynara Tuany Borges Valeriano

To cite this article: Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido, José Reinaldo da Silva Cabral de
Moraes, Glauco de Souza Rolim, Lucieta Guerreiro Martorano, Kamila Cunha de Meneses &
Taynara Tuany Borges Valeriano (2019): Neural networks in climate spatialization and their
application in the agricultural zoning of climate risk for sunflower in different sowing dates, Archives
of Agronomy and Soil Science, DOI: 10.1080/03650340.2019.1566715

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ARCHIVES OF AGRONOMY AND SOIL SCIENCE
https://doi.org/10.1080/03650340.2019.1566715

Neural networks in climate spatialization and their application in

the agricultural zoning of climate risk for sunflower in different
sowing dates
Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido a, José Reinaldo da Silva Cabral de Moraesb,
Glauco de Souza Rolimb, Lucieta Guerreiro Martoranoc, Kamila Cunha de Menesesb
and Taynara Tuany Borges Valerianob
a
Science and Technology of Mato Grosso do Sul - Campus of Naviraí, IFMS - Federal Institute of Education,
Naviraí, Brasil; bDepartment of Exact Sciences, UNESP – São Paulo State University, Jaboticabal, Brazil; cEmbrapa
Eastern Amazon Trav, Santarém, Brasil

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

Sunflower is a species that is sensitive to local climate conditions. However, Received 18 January 2018
studies that use artificial neural networks (ANNs) to evaluate this influence Accepted 10 December 2018
and create tools such as agricultural zoning of climate risk (ZARC) have not KEYWORDS
been conducted for this species. Due to the importance of sunflower as Helianthus annus; crop
a human food source and for biodiesel production, and also the necessity of zoning; climate modeling;
conducting research to evaluate the suitability of this oleaginous species multi-layer perceptron
under different climatic conditions. Thus, we seek to construct a ZARC for network
sunflower in Brazil simulating sowing on different dates and using meteor-
ological elements spatialized by ANNs. Climate data were used: air tem-
perature (T), rainfall (P), relative air humidity (UR), solar radiation
(MJ_m−2_d−1) and wind velocity (U2). Climatic regions considered suitable
for the cultivation of sunflower had average annual values for T between 20
and 28°C, P between 500 and 1.500 mm per cycle, and soil water deficit
(DEF) below 140 mm per cycle. A neural network is an efficient tool that can
be used in spatialization of climate variables quickly and accurately.
Sunflower sowing in the spring and summer are the ones that provide the
largest suitable areas in southeastern Brazil, with 58.13 and 64.36% of
suitable areas, respectively.

Introduction
Sunflower (Helianthus annus) is a species that has a high sensitivity to climate conditions. Air
temperature is a variable that is of great importance to agricultural crops because it directly and
indirectly influences photosynthesis (Awais et al. 2017), affecting respiration, transpiration, the
duration of phenological phases, grain oil content, and the rate of seed germination (Mavi and
Tupper 2004). Soil water deficiency is responsible for the decrease in the production of many
agricultural crops (Aparecido et al. 2018a) since it affects evapotranspiration, soil water extraction
by roots, the distribution of the root system, the size of the canopy, and crop development rates.
Rainfall is the main input of water into the soil-plant system and is one of the main variables that
determine the yield of agricultural crops. Due to the strong influence exerted by these variables
they are normally the main climatic elements that are considered in studies on ZARC (Camargo
et al. 1974).

CONTACT Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido lucas-aparecido@outlook.com IFMS - Federal Institute of Education,
Science and Technology of Mato Grosso do Sul - Campus of Naviraí, Naviraí, MS, Brasil
© 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
2 L. E. D. O. APARECIDO ET AL.

Understanding of the climatic regime of a region makes possible the establishment of ZARC for
a specific crop. Aparecido et al. (2018b) define ZARC as the delimitation between zones that are
suitable and inadequate for the development of a specific agricultural crop, taking into considera-
tion the thermal and hydrological demands of that crop. ZARC is considered to be a tool that can
reduce crop losses due to adverse climate conditions (Melo et al. 2004; Monteiro 2009; Wollmann
and Galvani 2013).
In the elaboration of a ZARC study, it is necessary to know the ideal climate conditions for
a specific crop. Sunflower needs temperatures above 5°C as this represents the lower threshold for
large reductions in physiological activity (Weiss 1983). This species develops well, with elevated
yield, when air temperatures vary between 20°C and 28°C, and rainfall is between 500 and
1,500 mm during its entire growth cycle, but when rainfall during the growth cycle is above
1,500 mm there may be losses due to excess moisture (Castro and Farias 2005; Monteiro 2009; Dias
et al. 2016).
With respect to soil water deficiency, sunflower presents full development in areas that have
an annual deficit lower than 140 mm, with its development therefore restricted in areas that
have annual deficits higher than 140 mm. It is important to emphasize that sunflower is
considered to be relatively tolerant to drought; however, large soil water deficiency will cause
reductions in crop yield (Zaffaroni et al. 1994). The influence of climate on the duration of the
phenological phases is mainly reported to air temperature (Massignam and Angelocci 1993;
Sentelhas et al. 1994).
The use of ANNs in agriculture is considered to be the vanguard in crop modeling. ANNs are
products of computational techniques that use mathematical models that take as a model the
neural structures of intelligent organisms, operating in a dynamic, complex system that is capable
of learning and teaching the computer and also recognizing patterns (Kovács 2006). These ANNs
are capable of resolving complex problems and have a high rate of performance due to their
robust structure that is distributed in parallel layers, and also to their efficiency with respect to
learning (Haykin 2001; Silva et al. 2010; Leal et al. 2015).
Few papers are found in the literature using ANN to assess the influence of climate on
agricultural crops. In studies such as that of Guo and Xue (2014) ANNs were tested to evaluate
agricultural climate conditions using a multilayered neural network that predicted the yield of
wheat in Queensland in Australia. Alves et al. (2017) used ANNs to predict evapotranspiration using
air temperature from a series of previous days in the State of São Paulo. It is important to
emphasize, however, that no studies have been found that used neural networks in spatialization
of climatic data and its applications in ZARC. And, Arribas et al. (2011) who created an automatic
system of image classification of leaves for sunflower, using neural networks, to be used in
applications of selective herbicides.
Due to the importance of sunflower as a human food source and for biodiesel production,
there is a great necessity to conduct research to evaluate the suitability of this oleaginous
species under different climatic conditions. Thus, the objective was to construct a ZARC for
sunflower in Brazil simulating sowing on different dates and using meteorological elements
spatialized by neural networks.

Material and methods

Climate data were used for the variables average air temperature (T), rainfall (P), relative air
humidity (UR), solar radiation (M J m−2 d−1) and wind velocity (U2) corresponding to 1.530
meteorological weather stations distributed in the southeast of Brazil between 1950 and 2016
(Figure 1). This climate time series was collected by the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology
(INMET). This region has an area of approximately 924.620 km2 in which exist the following climatic
classes according to the Köppen and Geiger climate classification system (1928): Af, Am, Aw, Cfa,
Cfb, Cwa and Cwb (Figure 2).
 ARCHIVES OF AGRONOMY AND SOIL SCIENCE 3

Figure 1. Meteorological stations used for the zoning classification of sunflower in the southeast of Brazil.

Figure 2. Climatic typologies according to the Köppen and Geiger system (1928) for the southeast region of Brazil.
4 L. E. D. O. APARECIDO ET AL.

As the average sunflower cycle is 120 days, we simulated the sowing of the sunflower on four
dates, each of them in a different season of the year (360 days/120days = 4 sowing). The data were:
21 of September (spring), 21 of December (summer), 20 of March (autumn) and 21 of June (winter).
We have prepared a ZARC for each of these sowing dates.
The areas considered suitable for cultivation of sunflower were defined using climatic data for
average cycle air temperature (T-cycle, in ºC), total cycle rainfall (P-cycle, mm) and cycle soil water deficit
(DEF-cycle, mm), using a value of available soil water of 100 mm. Figure 3 shows the climate suitability
classes which were defined through evaluation of the thermal and hydrological demands of sunflower
(Weiss 1983; Kane and Rieseberg 2007; Monteiro 2009; Dias et al. 2016).

Figure 3. Classification criteria for sunflower adaptability according to agroclimatic attributes: T-cycle = air temperature
(ºCelsius), P-cycle = rainfall in the cycle (mm cycle−1) and DEF-cycle = annual soil water deficit (mm cycle −1).
 ARCHIVES OF AGRONOMY AND SOIL SCIENCE 5

Regions were considered to be adequate, in terms of climate, for sunflower cultivation when
T-cycle varied between 20 and 28°C, P-cycle was between 500 and 1500 mm cycle−1, and DEF-cycle
was lower than 140 mm cycle−1. Regions with values of T-cycle above 28°C were considered
inadequate because above this temperature plants begin to show reductions in net photosynthesis
because respiration is greater than the photosynthetic rate, it might be replaced by a condition
that would limit the growth of the sunflower crop. Furthermore, the following restrictions were
applied to this analysis:
1. T-cycle less than 20°C sunflower growth would be reduced due to the low amount of heat
accumulated during the growth cycle;
2. P-cycle less than 500 mm cycle−1 or DEF-cycle above 140 mm cycle−1 would indicate the need
for irrigation;
3. P above 1500 mm cycle−1 would indicate excessive water on the place.
We generate the maps of each element according to the following vector Yj (Equation 1):

Yj ¼ ½y1 ... y1530  ðy 2 fTEMPERATURE; RAINFALL; WATER DEFICITgÞ (1)

We used the technique of artificial neural networks of the type Multilayer Percetron (MLP). The MLP
entries were latitude, longitude, and altitude, and the outputs were the spatialized climatic
variables (T-cycle, P-cycle, and DEF-cycle). The training of the MLP used a supervised learning
technique with a multilayered backpropagation training algorithm. Mathematically, an MLP with
N layers, H hidden neurons, and an output neuron can be expressed by Equation 2 below:
XH 
Y¼SK h¼1
O h Wh W o (2)

In which Y = the output (maps); Oh = output value of the hth hidden neuron (Oh given by Equation 3);
Wh are the synaptic weights between hidden neurons of the RNA, and W0 are the initial values of the
RNA training algorithm.
XH 
Oh ¼ Sk h¼1
X n Wnh W oh (3)

In which Xn are the RNA input (latitude, longitude, and altitude); Wnh are the synaptic weights
between the output neurons, and W0h are the initial values of the RNA training algorithm.
A sigmoid logistical function was used to activate the neurons (Equation 4):

1
Sk ðxÞ ¼ (4)
1 þ ex
It is important to emphasize that the climate data are normalized using Equation 5 below:

X0
X ¼  (5)
X þ ns S

in which: x* is the normalized variable; x0 is the original variable; x is the average obtained
from the sample that forms the training set; s is the standard deviation of the original variable,
which is also obtained from the training set, and ns represents the number of standard
deviations that should be considered.
For the calibration of the neural network, algorithm was used from the total of 1.530 meteor-
ological stations. With the neural network calibrated and accurate was carried out interpolation of
climatic data for the rest of southeast region of Brazil. The calibration of several topologies and
variations were tested between neurons in the intermediate layers and the output to maximize the
accuracy, with the highest accuracy being found for a neuron distribution equal to (input is
3-neuron x intermediate is 4-neuron x output is 2-neuron) (Figure 4).
6 L. E. D. O. APARECIDO ET AL.

The performances of the neural networks in the estimation of meteorological elements are shown in
Figure 5. The neural networks were accurate in the estimates showing correlation coefficient above
0.7472. Estimating rainfall variability with a precision of 0.7472 proves the efficiency of the neural
networks, because rainfall is one of the most difficult elements to model (Chahine 1992). Other statistical
indexes can be observed in Table 1.

Figure 4. Multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network used in the spatialized of meteorological elements of the southeast
region of Brazil.
 ARCHIVES OF AGRONOMY AND SOIL SCIENCE 7

Figure 5. Performance of the neural networks in the estimation of meteorological elements annual. Estimated T (A, ºC),
estimated P (B, mm mo−1), and estimated DEF (C, mm mo−1).
8 L. E. D. O. APARECIDO ET AL.

Table 1. Statistical indices between the data estimated by the neural networks and the
climatic data.
Statistical índices T P DEF
Correlation coefficient 0.9936 0.7472 0.8170
Mean absolute error 0.1018 41.4350 45.5849
Root mean squared error 0.1981 94.6155 34.2842
Relative absolute error 7.2183 35.7810 20.2176
Root relative squared error 11.637 38.2555 21.1193

Climatologic-soil water balance was done using the method of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955),
using a value of available water of 100 mm.
(
NACi ¼ NACi1 þ ðP þ PET Þi
if ðP  PET Þi < 0 ¼ ðNACi Þ (6)
STOi ¼ WCe WC

(
STOi ¼ ðP  PET Þi þ STOi1
if ðP  PET Þi  0 ¼ ðSTOi Þ (7)
NACi ¼ WCln WC

ALTi ¼ STOi  STOi1 (8)


P þ jALTi j; if ALT < 0
AETi ¼ (9)
PETi ; if ALT  0

DEF ¼ PET  AET (10)


0; if WC < 0
EXCi ¼ (11)
ðP  PET Þi  ALTi ; if WC ¼ 0

where PET is potential evapotranspiration (mm); WC is available water capacity (mm); STO is soil
water storage (mm); NAC = Sum rainfall – potential evapotranspiration; P is rainfall (mm); DEF is
water deficiency at the soil-plant-atmosphere system (mm); AET is actual evapotranspiration (mm);
EXC is water surplus at the soil-plant-atmosphere system (mm); ALT is soil water storage of the
current month – soil water storage of the preceding month (mm) and, i is the monthly period.
Potential evapotranspiration (PET) was estimated using the Penman and Monteith (Allen et al.
1998) described in Equations 12–15:

0:408  s  ðRn  GÞ þ γ900U 2 ðeseaÞ

Tþ273
ET0 ¼ (12)
s þ γ  ð1 þ 0:34  U2

4098  es
s¼ (13)
ðT þ 273Þ2

UR  es
ea ¼ (14)
100

17:27T
es ¼ 0:6108  e237:3þT (15)
−2 −1
where, Rn is the radiation balance (M J m d ); UR is relative air humidity; G is the soil heat flux
(M J m−2 d−1); T is the air temperature (°C); γ is the psychrometric constant equal to 0.063 kPa°C−1; s is
 ARCHIVES OF AGRONOMY AND SOIL SCIENCE 9

the humidity pressure curve decline at the air temperature (kPa°C−1); U2 is the wind velocity (ms−1) at
a height of 2 m; es is the humidity saturation pressure (kPa); ea is the humidity partial pressure (kPa);
With the overlapping of the maps (T-cycle, P-cycle, and DEF-cycle) prepared by MLP and the
established climatic criteria of sunflower (Figure 3), we established the agro-climatic zoning for the
sunflower for all seasons of a year.

Results and discussion

The average seasonal climatic variability of the southeast of Brazil is shown in Figure 6. The
average T varied from 23°C to 15.5°C, with higher T occurring between November and
February, and lower T between May and August, indicating that the temperature regime is
well within the range that is favorable for sunflower development.
The average annual rainfall was 1.379 mm a−1 (Figure 7), with a high inter-annual
variability (σ = 221 mm). The largest values for P occurred on the Atlantic coast of the
State of São Paulo, with values above 2.500 mm a−1 (Santos-SP, Guarujá-SP, Cubatão-SP,
Bertioga-SP), and the lowest values occurred in the north of the State of Minas Gerais, with
values of 800 mm a−1 (Manonas-MG, Itaobim-MG, Espinosa-MG), as shown in Figure 8.
Generally, the highest values for P in the southeast of Brazil were between the months of
September and April, and the lowest values were between June and August (Figure 7(b)).
Potential evapotranspiration (Equation 12) and real evapotranspiration (Equation 9) refers
to the amount of water used by the plant without water restriction and with water

Figure 6. Seasonal variation of average annual air temperature (A, °C), rainfall (B, mm), potential evapotranspiration (C, mm),
real evapotranspiration (D, mm), soil water storage (E, mm) and hydrological balance (F, mm) for the period 1950 to 2016,
southeast region of Brazil. Legend: bars represent the standard deviation (σ).
10 L. E. D. O. APARECIDO ET AL.

Figure 7. Histogram of the number of sites in function of the variability of climate parameters. (a) Rainfall (mm); (b) Air
temperature (°C); (c) Water deficit (mm); (d) Water Surplus (mm); (e) evapotranspiration (mm).
 ARCHIVES OF AGRONOMY AND SOIL SCIENCE 11

Figure 8. Variability of average air temperature (T, ºC), rainfall (P, mm) and water deficit (DEF, mm) in different sowing dates for
sunflower.

restriction, respectively (Wegehenkel and Gerke 2013), and both had the same variability as
T and P. The soil water storage (SWS) is the quantity of water available in the soil-plant-
atmosphere system, and in the southeast of Brazil this value was near 100% of its total
potential storage capacity between the months of November and March. The lowest values
for SWS occurred at the end of the winter, mainly during August and September, wherein
average values were 33% of storage capacity and occurred at the sites Jordânia-MG, Jacinto-
MG, and Salto-da-Divisa-MG.
The southeast region generally has a surplus of water in the soil-plant-atmosphere system
during the months from October to April, with a monthly average and variability of
34.85 mm and σ = 19.58 mm, respectively. During the months of April to October, a deficit
is generally observed, with a peak deficit in August (Figure 7(f)). Comprehension of the
variation of soil water through time is undoubtedly essential agrometeorological information
for planning crop irrigation (Aparecido et al. 2015).
The highest T was 26.0°C in summer occurring in the northern Espirito Santo (Figure 8)
and the lowest T were 16.83º°C in the south of Minas Gerais (Table 2). Highest T was of
22.47°C in winter occurring in the northern Minas Gerais and the lowest T was of 11.93°C in
12 L. E. D. O. APARECIDO ET AL.

Table 2. Average, standard deviation, maximum and minimum values of air temperature, rainfall and rainfall
in the southeast in Brazil.
Air temperature (ºC) Rainfall (mm) Water deficit (mm)
Spring
Average 21.64 545.02 22.95
Standard deviation ±1.68 ±94.07 ±18.85
Maximun 24.77 916.00 137.94
Minimun 15.67 292.00 0.00
Summer
Average 22.74 569.75 1.64
Standard deviation ±1.57 ±118.39 ±6.81
Maximun 26.00 986.00 95.06
Minimun 16.83 265.00 0.00
Autumn
Average 18.94 152.84 79.93
Standard deviation ±1.83 ±51.10 ±37.15
Maximun 23.23 531.00 203.56
Minimun 12.20 49.00 0.00
Winter
Average 18.30 111.93 237.72
Standard deviation ±1.84 ±47.03 ±52.12
Maximun 22.47 467.00 347.66
Minimun 11.93 11.00 0.00

the southern Minas Gerais. Other variations of T, P, and DEF are shown in Figure 8 and Table
2. Important observation is also analyzed in the areas of state boundaries, such as São Paulo
and Minas Gerais, which due to the differentiation of landscape characterized by larger
reliefs and mountains have precipitation ranges and temperatures that differ from the rest
of the state, forming areas there with characteristics suitable or not suitable for sunflower
cultivation (Figura 8).
The agricultural zoning for climatic risk for sunflower at different sowing dates in
Southeast Brazil is shown in Figure 9. The sowing dates in spring and summer presented
suitable areas, with less restriction. When sunflower sowing was in the spring, 58.13% of the
areas of the southeast are considered suitable. However, when sowing was in summer,
64.36% of the areas are suitable, mainly in the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Rio
de Janeiro. In the autumn and winter sowing, there are some restrictions which should be
carefully evaluated.
With sunflower sowing in the winter, the northern regions of the State of Minas Gerais/
Espirito-Santo/São Paulo, presented hydrological restrictions for sunflower cultivation. In
these regions the Aw climate regime (tropical with a dry winter: Köppen classification,
Figure 2) is predominant. Santos et al. (2009) reported that in semiarid regions, where
there is low and irregular annual rainfall, agricultural production is significantly compro-
mised. However, it is important to state that in these regions agricultural production can still
be viable through the adoption of an irrigation system if water sources are easily available.
With sunflower sowing in spring, the south of the State of Minas Gerais and the east of
the State of São Paulo were considered marginal areas since sunflower growth in these
regions is slow due to the low accumulation of degree days due to lower T. Massignam and
Angelocci (1993) reported that the duration of the flowering of emergence and period of
some genotypes of sunflower is influenced mainly by the T. We suggest addressing the issue
of slower growth, which occurs in 10.15% of the region of southeastern Brazil (spring), that
producers adopt the use of genotypes with shorter cycle.
The zoning classification showed that a large part of the southeast region is favorable to
sunflower (Figure 9). With sunflower sowing in summer, a large part of the southeast region
of Brazil (64.36%) showed no restriction and is classified as being suitable for sunflower
 ARCHIVES OF AGRONOMY AND SOIL SCIENCE 13

Figure 9. Agricultural zoning for climatic risk for sunflower at different sowing dates in southeast of Brazil.
14 L. E. D. O. APARECIDO ET AL.

cultivation. These regions have annual average T and P of 22°C and 1498 mm, respectively.
The rainy season represents nearly 100% of the total annual rainfall, and during the majority
of the year, the monthly average rainfall is about 200 mm with just 3 months of dry season
(June to August). In these regions, the ideal climate conditions for sunflower cultivation
coupled with management factors allow high yield and consequently a higher economic
return for agricultural producers. Another factor that favors cultivation in these regions is
that the sunflower production chain uses, with a few small technical modifications, the same
machinery that is used for production and processing of other grains such as soybeans
(Pivetta et al. 2002).
Sunflower has low water use efficiency, and for this reason, the use of irrigation becomes
important in 68.99% of the areas classified as marginal due to DEF in the winter sowing.
Dutra et al. (2012) explained that to produce 2 g of dry matter from sunflower 1 l of water is
needed. Furthermore, the concentration of oil in sunflower is primarily affected by DEF
during the period of filling of the achenes (Castro and Farias 2005).
The climograph for the main water input in the soil-plant-atmosphere system (rainfall)
and the main output (real ETP) for the agricultural zoning for sunflower is illustrated in
Figure 10. A climograph is a simple and efficient tool that allows the verification of seasonal
climatic variation of an agricultural crop in a specific region (Aparecido et al. 2018a). Areas
that are classified as suitable in terms of climate have an annual P that varies between 950
and 1460 mm a−1, and an annual PET that varies between 955 and 1200 mm a−1. The other
regions had more intense seasonal variations, taking for example the areas that would
require irrigation, in which annual P varied between 760 and 1250 mm a−1 and annual
real PET varied between 650 and 1150 mm a−1 (Figure 10).

Figure 10. Relationship between annual real evapotranspiration and annual rainfall (P) for the sunflower zoning classes for the
southeast region of Brazil.
 ARCHIVES OF AGRONOMY AND SOIL SCIENCE 15

Conclusions
A neural network is an efficient tool that can be used in spatialization of climate variables quickly and
accurately, with a correlation coefficient of 0.9936, 0.7472, and 0.8170 for T, P, and DEF, respectively.
ZARC for sunflower on different date’s seedings is unpublished and allows ample agricultural
planning for all producers. Sunflower sowing in spring and summer are the ones that provide the
largest suitable areas in southeastern Brazil, with 58.13 and 64.36% of suitable areas, respectively.
The ZARC demonstrated that with sunflower sowing in spring the south of the State of Minas
Gerais, and the east of the State of São Paulo were considered to be marginal areas since sunflower
growth in these regions is slow due to lower T.
The sowing of sunflower in winter shows little climatic viability, since 68.99% of the areas
present problems with low T and high DEF.

Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

ORCID
Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4561-6760

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