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Random Variables
probability “Barangsiapa bertakwa kepada Allah niscaya Dia akan

distribution
mengadakan baginya jalan keluar.
Dan memberinya rezeki dari arah yang tiada disangka-sangkanya.
Dan barangsiapa yang bertawakkal kepada Allah niscaya Allah
akan mencukupkan (keperluan)nya. Sesungguhnya Allah
melaksanakan urusan yang (dikehendaki)Nya. Sesungguhnya Allah
telah mengadakan ketentuan bagi tiap-tiap sesuatu”.
(QS At Thalaq 2-3)

TOPIK MINGGU INI Random Variables

1. Probability Distribution Function (PDF) Mean or Random

Expected Value and Standard Deviation

Experiment

2. Binomial Distribution
Countable Measurable
3. Geometric Distribution
4. Hypergeometric Distribution Toss a coin Height
Roll a die Distance

5. Poisson Distribution
Time

6. Normal Distribution
7. Uniform Distribution
8. Exponential Distribution Real whole number
X: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Numerical value within an interval
1,2 <= X <= 1,29

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Probabiity distribution Probability distribution of a discrete random variable

Random
Variable

Outcomes AA AG GA GG
Discrete continous Sample
space Random 2 1 1 0
Variable X :

Finite Infinite Exponentioal

xi
Normal Uniform X: {Number of Angka}
Input Output
Random
Function f {Real Number}

Binomial Geometric Hypergeometric Poisson xi 0 1 2

P(xi) 1/4 2/4 1/4
5 P(xi=0) P(xi=1) P(xi=2) 6

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Mean or Expected Value Standard Deviation

 = 1,029

Bernoulli trials Binomial probability distribution

Trials of random probability experiment are called Bernoulli Example: Solusi:
X  B(n,p)
Trials, if they satisfy the following conditions:
Sebuah dadu X = number of succes
"X is a random
 There are finite number of trials dilemparkan n=3
variable with a
 The trials shoud be independent sebanyak 3 kali. p = 1/6
binomial distribution.“
 Each trials has only two outcome: succes OR failure Berapakah q = 5/6
 The probability of success remains the same in each trial n = number of trials,
probabilitas X = {0,1,2,3}
p =probability of a
n = 1 ; S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} Success = p munculnya mata P(X) = ....................
success on each trial.
Random variable, X = {#2} Failure = q dadu 6? Binomial Probability
A = {number 2} p+q=1 Distribution
P(A) = P(2) = 1/6  success q=1–p
P(A’) = 5/6  failure
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Binomial distribution Mean or Expected Value and

Solusi:
X = {SSS,SSF,SFF,SFS,FSS,FFS,FSF,FFF}
X 0 1 2 3 Standard Deviation
P(x) 0,578 0,347 0,069 0,005
P(x=0) = {FFF} = q.q.q = q3
q3 3q2p 3qp2 p3
P(x=1) = {SFF,FSF,FFS}
= p.q.q +q.p.q+q.q.p = 3q2p
P(x=2) = {SSF,SFS,FSS}
= p.p.q +p.q.p+q.p.p = 3qp2
P(x=3) = {SSS} = p3

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Geometric distribution Geometric distribution

Example:
There are one or more Bernoulli trials with all failures except the last one,
Berapakah probabilitas munculnya mata n 1 2 3 4 5
which is a success. In other words, you keep repeating what you are
dadu 3 ? F F F F S
doing until the first success.
X ~ G(p)
5/6 5/6 5/6 5/6 1/6
P(x)
In theory, the number of trials could go on forever. There must be at least 0,0804
p = the probability of a success for each trial
one trial. 6,0002
= 1/6  X  G(1/6) 
X = the number of independent trials until the first success.
2 30
Expected value = 1/p,
Success = p  5,4772
X ~ G(p)  "X is a random variable with a geometric distribution."
Failure = q
p = the probability of a success for each trial. p+q=1
q=1–p

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Hypergeometric distribution Hypergeometric distribution

There are five characteristics of a hypergeometric experiment: X ~ H(r, b, n)
1. You take samples from two groups. ▪ "X is a random variable
2. You are concerned with a group of interest, called the first group. with a hypergeometric
3. You sample without replacement from the combined groups.
distribution (H)."
4. Each pick is not independent, since sampling is without replacement.
▪ r = the size of the group
5. You are not dealing with Bernoulli Trials.
of interest (first group),
▪ b = the size of the
The outcomes of a hypergeometric experiment fit a second group,
hypergeometric probability distribution.
▪ n = the size of the
X = the number of items from the group of interest. chosen sample.

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Hypergeometric distribution Hypergeometric distribution

Example: X P(X) X*P(X)
Sebuah kepanitiaan yang terdiri dari 7 orang, akan dipilih secara random 0 3C0 * 8C7/11C7 = 8/330 0
dari 3 orang mahasiswa dan 8 orang dosen.
1 3C1 * 8C6/11C7 = 14/55 14/55
Buatlah tabel distribusi probabilitas dari jumlah mahasiswa yang terpilih.
2 3C2 * 8C5/11C7 = 28/55 56/55
Berapakah Expected Value dari jumlah mahasiswa yang terlibat kepanitiaan
3 3C3 * 8C4/11C7 = 7/33 21/33

Dependent Event E(X) 21/11 =1,9

X: {Pemilihan mahasiswa}
Mahasiswa :3
Dosen :8
Total : 11
Jumlah Seleksi : 7
11!
Kombinasi : 11𝐶7 = 7! 11−7 !
= 330
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Example 5-23 Example 5-23: Solution

▪ Brown Manufacturing membuat suku cadang mobil yang dijual ke dealer
▪ N = 25, r = 20, N – r = 5, n = 4, x = 3, n – x = 1
mobil. Minggu lalu perusahaan mengirimkan 25 suku cadang mobil ke
20! 5!
dealer. Belakangan diketahui bahwa 5 bagian tersebut rusak. Pada saat 
C x N  r Cn  x C3 5C1 3!(20  3)! 1!(5  1)!
manajer perusahaan menghubungi dealer, 4 suku cadang mobil dari P( x  3)  r
 20

N Cn 25 C 4
25!
pengiriman tersebut telah terjual. Berapa probabilitas bahwa 3 dari 4
4!(25  4)!
bagian tersebut adalah bagian yang baik dan 1 rusak?
(1140)(5)
  .4506
12,650

Thus, the probability that three of the four parts sold are good and one is defective is
.4506.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

Poisson distribution Poisson distribution

French
mathematician
Siméon-Denis
Poisson The random variable X = the number
of occurrences in the interval of
interest.
X ~ P( μ )
▪ Read this as "X is a random
Two main characteristics: variable with a Poisson
1. The number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these distribution."
events happen with a known average rate and independently of the time ▪ The parameter is μ (or λ);
since the last event. ▪ μ (or λ) = the mean for the
2. may be used to approximate the binomial if the probability of success is interval of interest.
"small" (such as 0.01) and the number of trials is "large" (such as 1,000).

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Poisson distribution
Contoh Soal
Pada bulan ramadhan sebelum pandemi,
rata-rata seorang manajer sebuah
perusahaan menerima undangan buka
puasa bersama sebanyak 3 kali dalam
seminggu.
Berapakah peluang seorang manajer akan
menerima undangan buka bersama tahun
ini?
a. Sebanyak 5 kali?
b. Kurang dari 3 kali?
c. Paling tidak 2 kali?
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