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OIL CATASTROPHE -- STATISTICS

Subject: OIL CATASTROPHE -- STATISTICS
From: guardian@peg.pegasus.oz.au
Date: 10 Jul 1991 20:50:21 +1000
Newsgroups: mideast.gulf

Oil Catastrophe -- Statistics

peg.guardian 10th July, 1991 108 lines

Kuwait/Southern Iraq update June 30, 1991

by Joe Vialls who is an oil project consultant with almost 20
years experience at the sharp end of the oil and gas exploration
industry.

First published in "The Guardian" (Australia) July 10th, 1991

Confidential oilfield data recently acquired from Texas confirms

that the American response to Kuwait and Southern Iraq oil fires
is inadequate.

Despite repeated calls for a minimum of 50 drilling rigs to move

to Kuwait and drill directional relief wells, only 10 are to be
sent in total. The rigs are not expected to START drilling their
relief wells until January 1992.

All drilling rigs belong to Santa Fe drilling, a company owned by

the Kuwaiti's.

RIG DISPOSITION AT JUNE 30, 1991

RIG NAME TYPE Status

Santa Fe 97 Oilwell 2000 On standby - Egypt
Santa Fe 146 12,000' deep Moving Oman to Qatar
Santa Fe 155 Oilwell 3000 Ready to load - Texas
Santa Fe 157 12,000' depth On standby - Qatar
Santa Fe 158 Oilwell 2000 Loading in Texas
Santa Fe 159 Cooper 750 In Kuwait - WOW!
Santa Fe 162 Midcon 1220 On standby - Qatar
Santa Fe ??? No details No details

Santa Fe Rigs 160 and 161 have been designed for drilling the
cellars for relief wells and are located in Kuwait. However,
these rigs are not currently equipped to drill relief wells so
the overall total available for kill operations is eight -- by
January 1992 at the earliest.

The total number involved is exactly that predicted by T B

O'Brien in early March 1991. Thus time to kill the fires is
the same as that reported in March by the author -- 4.1 years
minimum for the 300 high pressure wells declared by the Kuwaiti
Government to be uncontrollable by any other method. The Kuwaiti
statement naturally excludes all wells ablaze in Southern Iraq.

Despite Rig 159 being in Kuwait, not a single relief well had
been started by June 30, 127 days and 762 million barrels since
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initial burn on February 23.

There has been considerable confusion about the number of wells

in Kuwait and Iraq, the overall reserves and so on. For all
users of Pegasus the official figures printed on January 1, 1990
are as below:

OLIFIELD STATISTICS

KUWAIT

FIELD NAME YEAR DRILLED DEPTH (FEET) TOTAL WELLS

Burgan 1938 4,800 393
Ahmadi 1957 4,800 64
Magwa 1951 4,500 113
Ruadhatain 1952 8,600 53
Rumaila 1963 10,400 In dispute
Sahra 1956 8,500 2
Sabriya 1957 8,300 44
Minagish 1959 10,000 21
Umm Gudair 1962 9,000 33

Known Total: 743

IRAQ (Southern)

FIELD NAME YEAR DRILLED DEPTH (FT) TOTAL WELLS

Rumaila (North) 1958 10,400 443
Rumaila (South) 1963 10,400 208

Known Total: 651

Overall recoverable reserves for Kuwait as of 01/01/91 were

estimated to be 94,525,000,000 barrels. There is an additional
figure of 5,200,000,000 in the Neutral Zone between Kuwait and
Saudi Arabia from an unspecified number of wells.

Overall recoverable reserves for Iraq as of January 1, 1990 were

estimated to be 100,000,000,000 barrels from a total of 1,511
wells. Using an average figure per well this indicates that the
known southern reserves in Rumaila alone, a high pressure field,
are approximately 43,084,000,000 barrels.

As of June 30 the fire-fighters were claiming between 150 and 175

wells killed but increased the burning total to 750. It is hard
to accept that the wells are all in Kuwait and we are still
deprived of visual evidence to the contrary.

In general oilfield terms, well pressure increases with depth so

Minigish and Rumaila would tend to be the biggest problems. As 90
per cent of the Rumaila field is located geographically on Iraqi
soil it seems likely that we have been subjected to a massive con
job.

All efforts should be made to bring maximum pressure to bear on

the US agencies responsible to provide clear satellite pictures
of the area. Without them the environmental groups are blind and
incapable of exerting sufficient pressure to rectify the overall
situation swiftly.

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