Expert Systems with Applications 39 (2012) 2127–2131

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Expert Systems with Applications

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/eswa

Segmenting customers in online stores based on factors that affect

the customer’s intention to purchase
Taeho Hong ⇑, Eunmi Kim
School of Business, Pusan National University, 30 Jangjeon-dong, Geumjeong-gu, Busan 609-735, Republic of Korea

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Keywords: This study has proposed an approach that enables online stores to offer customized marketing by seg-
Customer segmentation menting their customers based on customers’ psychographic data. Online stores can concentrate on more
Online store profitable activities by identifying customers’ value as they segment their customers into a few groups of
K-nearest neighbours method customers with similar intentions to purchase. To segment online customers, based on previous research
Clustering
that explains the behavior of online customers regarding purchasing, the approach has employed the fac-
tors that affect the customers’ intention to purchase on the Web. We integrated the clustering results of
SOM (self-organized map) and the k-means algorithm into a single model. Online stores can develop pro-
motional marketing and offer personalized service for e-customers, who are more valuable and more
promising, according to the market segments presented by our approach.
! 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction 2007). Customers have varying preferences; so customer segmen-

Since their introduction, online stores have become a necessary
market for customers with an intention to purchase what they
want. Initially, most customers were suspicious about whether it
was good for them to purchase products through online stores
when Amazon.com began to sell their goods. However, as the
Internet is becoming more commonly used in various areas, online
shopping is taking root as a part of our lives nowadays. A great
number of online stores appear each day in cyber due to the en-
trance barriers, which offer both an opportunity and a threat to
these stores. A gradual decrease in their shares of the pie forces on-
line stores to look for ways to survive in the fiercely competitive
online market. Online stores have recognized that they need to
present personalized, differentiated, and customized services and
products to their customers for competing against their rivals in
the online market.
In general, most customers make a decision to purchase in on-
line stores by relying on information through a computer screen.
The purchasing behaviors of customers are strongly influenced
by the information and the services that are provided by the online
store. Online stores need to understand these customers’ behaviors
to develop and maintain relationships with customers. Thus, they
need to evaluate the value of customers and select customer seg-
mentation methods in order to design and establish different strat-
egies to maximize the value of customers (Chen, Zhang, Hu, & Fu,
⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +82 51 510 2531; fax: +82 51 581 3144.
E-mail addresses: hongth@pusan.ac.kr (T. Hong), keunmi100@pusan.ac.kr
(E. Kim).
tation can help online stores to serve their customers according to
their preferences.
Customer segmentation is a research area that intrigues
researchers in data mining because vast data are suitable for data
mining and patterns or rules are identified as a result of data min-
ing that could play a vital role in marketing. Data mining has been
applied for segmenting customers by demographic and transaction
data that are available just by searching databases with regard to
sales between stores and customers (Chen et al., 2007; Hung &
Tsai, 2008; Shin & Sohn, 2004). However, data that are selected
from databases do not include anything related to customers’ be-
liefs that also may strongly affect customers’ intention to purchase.
Thus, researchers have interested in the factors that affect the
behavior of customers in the decision to purchase. Most studies re-
lated to consumer behavior have presented their research model
using the factors and tested it statistically with data that are gath-
ered from survey (Everard and Galletta, 2006; Gefen, Darahanna, &
Straub, 2003; Verhagen & Dolen, 2009). Although a lot of studies
have contributed to explaining consumer behavior, they have not
sought to utilize customers’ psychographics for segmenting cus-
tomers using data mining. The reason for this omission is that
the psychographic data that are needed for data mining are stored
in customers’ minds, and not in a well-formed database.
This study has proposed an approach that enables online stores
to segment their customers using data mining techniques based on
their psychographic data. Our approach has three phases for seg-
menting customers. The first phase is for ascertaining the factors
that affect customers’ intention of purchasing on the Web. There-
fore, we built a structural equation model (SEM) through studies

0957-4174/$ - see front matter ! 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2011.07.114
2128 T. Hong, E. Kim / Expert Systems with Applications 39 (2012) 2127–2131

related to topics such as the information system success model and
the determinants of purchasing. The second phase is for segment-
ing online customers by integrating SOMs (self-organized maps)
and the k-means algorithm with respect to the factors selected in
phase I. The third phase is to ascertain similar customers from
the segments by the k-nearest neighbours method.
This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews the
literature on customer segmentation in online stores that uses
clustering methods. Section 3 presents our research framework.
In Section 4, we develop a model that explains why customers
make a decision to purchase in online stores. We segment the cus-
tomers by integrating the k-means and SOM approaches. Finally,
our approach infers new customers from the segments by the k-
nearest neighbours method. Conclusions and suggestions for fu-
ture work are provided in Section 6.
2. Customer segmentation
(Hung & Tsai, 2008). The self-organizing map (SOM) is an artificial
intelligence method based on neural networks and learns from
data by unsupervised learning. The k-means algorithm is the most
popular statistical method among nonhierarchical approaches for
clustering. Chen et al. (2007) used SOM to segment customers of
the online shopping market. Jang, Morrison, and O’Leary (2002)
used the k-means method for segmenting the customers of a travel
market. Shin and Sohn (2004) used the SOM, k-means, and fuzzy k-
means methods for segmenting stock trading customers based on
their amount of trades. They reported that the fuzzy k-means
method is the most robust among the three clustering methods
for segmenting customers. Kiang, Hu, and Fisher (2006) employed
the extended SOM to group customers in the telecommunication
market. Kuo, An, Wang, and Chung (2006) proposed the integration
of SOM and the k-means algorithm for market segmentation in the
freight transport industry. SOM was used to determine the number
of clusters and the starting point of the k-means algorithm, which
was then applied to find the final solution.

Companies expend considerable effort to acquire and retain

3. Research framework
their customers by satisfying customers’ needs for successful cus-
tomer relationship management (CRM). Customer segmentation
This study has proposed an approach that enables online stores
is one of the very effective methods for managing different cus-
to offer customized marketing by segmenting their customers
tomers with diverse preferences. Customer segmentation is
based on customers’ psychographic data. Online stores can concen-
explained as the process of dividing heterogeneous customers into
trate on more profitable activities by identifying customers’ value
homogeneous groups on the basis of common attributes and is
as they segment their customers into a few groups with similar
essential for handling a variety of customers with rich sets of
intentions to purchase.
diverse customer preferences more efficiently. It also groups
Fig. 1 shows the process for segmenting customers by psycho-
together customers with similar preferences. Companies get to
graphic data. Our approach consists of three phases for customers.
apply various marketing strategies to each segmented group
The first phase is to identify the factors that affect customers’ inten-
though customer segmentation. Customer segmentation increases
tion to purchase in online stores. We applied a structural equation
not only satisfaction to customers but also the expected profits for
model (SEM) to the proposed model, which explained the factors
a company (Hung & Tsai, 2008). Chen et al. (2007) noted that
that affect the customer’s intention to purchase based on previous
diverse marketing strategies used in customer segmentation max-
research. The result of SEM confirmed that the proposed model
imize the value of customers. By meeting customers’ needs, com-
was valid and statistically significant as per empirical analyses.
panies maintain lengthy relationships with customers. Besides,
The second phase is to segment online customers by integrating
companies can increase revenues by acquiring and retaining
SOM (self-organized map) and the k-means algorithm with respect
high-value customers at low cost (Chen et al., 2007) and occupying
to the factors selected in phase I. Here, we integrated the clusters
a leading-edge position in an immensely competitive environment.
gained from SOM and the k-means algorithm for more sophisti-
Customer segmentation has been mentioned as an important ave-
cated and accurate segments. If customers are assigned to the same
nue of research in the field of electronic commerce because cus-
cluster through both the k-means algorithm and SOM, they can be
tomers can be served more easily according to their segments in
deemed with confidence to belong to that cluster. For example, if
online markets than is the case in offline markets (Chang, 1998).
customer 1 is classified in segment A by both SOM and the k-means
Studies in customer segmentation are generally classified into
algorithm, then customer 1 is assigned to segment A. If the clusters
two groups according to the research objectives. The first group
for customers different between SOM and k-means, the associated
focuses on identifying the variables that have greater power with
customers are assigned to a new cluster between the two respec-
regard to segmenting customers from among demographic, geo-
tive clusters. For example, if customer 2 is classified in segment
graphic, psychographic, and behavioral data. Kotler and Armstrong
A (resp., B) under SOM (resp., k-means), then customer 2 is as-
(1989) proposed several variables for market segmentation that
signed to segment AB. That is, customer 2 has the characteristics
were geographic, demographic, psychographic, and behavioral.
of both segments A and B.
Bigus (1996) used various dimensions of data for customer seg-
Finally, the third phase was to infer similar customers from the
mentation: demographic information (sex, age, and marriage), eco-
segments by the k-nearest neighbours method. Using the k-nearest
nomic information (salary and family income), and geographic
neighbours method to identify the customers’ segment, we can as-
information (state, cities, and level of civilization). Swinyard and
sign segments for new customers who were not included in the
Smith (2003) segmented a lifestyle perspective of who is using
process of clustering. In other words, our method enables manag-
the Internet to shop and who does not shop, and then presented
ers who are responsible for marketing in online stores to apply dif-
the characteristics of online non-shoppers and shoppers through
ferential marketing strategies to each segmented group without
a comparative analysis of the two groups. Cho and Kim (2006) used
another process of clustering and segmenting customers.
weblog information such as the click stream and session time in
the online store for segmentation because customers can purchase
regardless of their registration in the online store. Chen et al. 4. Segmenting customers using proposed approach
(2007) used basic customer information and customers’ transac-
tion records for segmenting telecom customers. 4.1. Identifying the factors for the customer segmentation
The second type of studies focuses on how to cluster the cus-
tomer segments. SOM and the k-means algorithm are the two most Most marketing managers who are charge of selling products in
commonly used clustering methods for customer segmentation their company are always eager to know which customers are
 T. Hong, E. Kim / Expert Systems with Applications 39 (2012) 2127–2131 2129

Fig. 1. The process of segmenting customers by psychographic data. F, Factors affecting the purchase intention of online customers; CBS, Customers are in the dataset for
building segments (in sample for the k-nearest neighbors); CAS, Customers are in the dataset for applying segments (out of sample for the k-nearest neighbors).

going to purchase or have the intention of purchase from their O n lin e s t o r e

stores. Many studies have tried to identify and explain the factors Q u a lit y
that affect the customer’s intention of purchase. The studies have
focused on customer’s behavior of online stores in the last decade In f o r m a t io n
since electronic commerce was deeply rooted in our living. Cus- Q u a lit y
tomer’s trust is the most important factor when online stores make
business transaction with their customers, because the transac- Sy ste m P u rc h a s e f ro m
tions between the provider and customers occur in virtual web- Tru s t
Q u a lit y O n lin e S t o r e
sites (Gefen et al., 2003). Customers are reluctant to pay the
amount of their purchasing to online stores unless they have trust
enough for business transaction. Gefen et al. (2003) observed that S e r v ic e
Q u a lit y
customer trust helps customers to decide whether or not to pur-
chase through an online store.
Everard and Galletta (2006) and McKnight, Choudhury, and Fig. 2. The research model for the intention to purchase in online stores.
Kacmar (2002) noted that perceived quality of online stores posi-
tively influenced the customers’ trust in online stores. They ex-
quality. A questionnaire was developed to ask questions regarding
plained that customers become trusting the online store when
to customers’ Internet usage, trust, information quality, system
they perceive that the online store is of high quality. Perceived
quality, and service. The respondents’ Internet usage is presented
quality of online stores can be regarded as Web site quality, be-
in Table 1. Finally, we analyzed the model by a structural equation
cause an online store is a virtual store that utilizes information
model (SEM) with AMOS 7.0.
technology and possesses the features of information systems.
The fit indexes of the model showed Table 2. Generally, GFI and
Web site can be regarded as information systems itself to perform
AGFI should be equal to or above 0.90 and 0.80 respectively. GFI
e-commerce. And information systems are divided into three cate-
and AGFI of our model are 0.871 and 0.830 respectively. RMSR is
gories; information quality, system quality, and service quality
0.049 which is below the suggested 0.08 criteria. The fit indexes
(DeLone & Mclean, 2003). Thus we also divided the quality of on-
of our model suggest a good fit when they are taken together. In
line stores into informational quality, system quality, and service
Fig. 3, the results of SEM showed that the three factors are statisti-
quality. Information quality captures the accuracy, reliability, and
cally significant: system quality, service quality, and customer
completeness of content in the websites. System quality has the
trust. Information quality was not significant here in our proposed
characteristics of an e-commerce system such as usability, avail-
model because customers have enough information for the prod-
ability, reliability, adaptability, response time, and so on. Service
ucts that are sold in online stores although DeLone and McLean
quality represents the overall support for customers from the on-
(2003) noted that information quality is also regarded as a major
line store. Websites provide customers with services such as can-
part of information system’s quality. Goods in online stores are
cellations, exchanges, and refunds. The importance of service
generally standardized for convenience in dealing with customers
quality in online stores is most likely greater than previously
so that in many cases, customers do not need information about
thought as online stores play roles of not only information provider
goods. Customers, who bear certain goods for purchase in their
but also service provider (DeLone & McLean, 2003). Fig. 2 depicts
mind, can gain detailed information and a lot of reviews of goods
the relationship among factors that affect the customer’s intention
from online communities in Korea if they just seek them on
to purchase in online stores directly or indirectly.
Internet.
For the dataset, we collected data though a survey of 196 cus-
tomers in Korea who had experience in purchasing from online
stores. Strategic Analytics, well-known firm as market research, re- 4.2. Clustering for customer segmentation
ported that ninety five percent of Korean households accessed the
Internet via broadband in 2008. Korea was ranked first in broad- We integrated two kinds of clustering methods, SOM and the
band household penetration among 58 countries. Thus most peo- k-means algorithm, for a more sophisticated segmentation of cus-
ple can access the Internet via broadband and online shopping is tomers in online stores as mentioned in the phase II of our research
very common way to purchase goods in Korea. They said that A framework. While our integrated clustering method was utilized,
five-point Likert scale ranging from ‘agree completely’ (coded as we applied variables regarding customer’s trust, system quality,
5) to ‘disagree completely’ (coded as 1) was used for measuring and service quality which were significant statistically in the
customers’ perceived beliefs relating to trust and the online store’s SEM, to the input variables for each clustering techniques, SOM
2130 T. Hong, E. Kim / Expert Systems with Applications 39 (2012) 2127–2131

Table 1 were averaged in the input variables of cluster analyses. Customers

Respondents’ Internet usage. were segmented into three clusters in both SOM and k-means algo-
Internet usage Frequency (person) Percentage rithm. We integrated two clustering results by the method pro-
(%) posed in phase II. In final, customers were segmented into five
Internet usage time (average per Less than 1 h 27 13.8 clusters in Table 3. An ANOVA test is applied for the segmented
week) Less than 2 h 37 18.9 groups in order to confirm the homogeneity across groups. As a re-
Less than 5 h 44 22.4 sult of ANOVA, our segmented groups were found to be signifi-
Less than 10 h 28 14.3
More than 10 h 60 30.6
cantly different (Table 4).
Total 196 100.0 Segment A has high intention to purchase and shows more
Frequency of purchase in online stores 1–2 times/1 year 35 17.9
usage of online stores. To retain customers that belong to segment
1–2 times/6 month 45 23.0 A, the online store could offer a promotional program for retention
1–2 times/4 month 54 27.6 such as free delivery services, free exchange services, savings cou-
1–2 times/1 month 53 27.0 pons, and so on. Segment AB has characteristics that are between
1–2 times/1 week 9 4.6
those of both segments A and B. Customers in segment AB show
Total 196 100.0
that their perceived belief for service quality and trust decreased
Total amount of purchase (average per Less than 10,000 17 8.7
relatively compared to customers in segment A. Online stores
month) (won)
Less than 50,000 43 21.9 should propose a marketing program for holding customer’s
(won) deceasing perceived belief in segment AB. Segment B does not in-
Less than 100,000 58 29.6 tend to purchase in online stores because of the lack of service
(won) quality and trust. To engender customers’ purchasing behaviour
Less than 200,000 30 15.3
(won)
and increase customers’ trust, the online store should deliver on
More than 200,000 48 24.5 time. If customers ask any questions, the store should respond
(won) immediately. Segment BC has characteristics between those of seg-
Total 196 100.0 ments B and C. The customers in segment BC are not satisfied with
the service quality of online stores. For customer satisfaction, the
online store strives to improve service quality with regard to can-
cellation, refund, and exchange policies. For example, customers
Table 2
The fit indexes. should be satisfied with the service of the online store even though
they might request a refund. The customers in segment C show
Fit indices Recommended criteria Model
infrequent purchases in online stores. The customers need to be in-
Absolute fit Chi- 65.00 (Hayduk, 1987) 1.892 duced to visit the online store more frequently. For example, the
indices square/df
GFI P0.90 (Jöreskog & Sörbom, 1993) 0.871
RMSR 60.08 (Jöreskog & Sörbom, 1993) 0.049
RMSEA 0.05!0.08 (Jöreskog & Sörbom, 0.068 Table 3
1993) The results of customer segmentation.
Incremental fit AGFI P0.80 (Etezadi-Amoli & 0.830
Segment Clustering Factors Intention to
indices Farhoomand, 1996)
techniques purchase
NFI P0.90 (Bentler & Bonett, 1980) 0.835
CFI P0.90 (Hayduk, 1987) 0.914 k- SOM System Service Trust
IFI P0.90 (Bollen, 1989) 0.915 means quality quality
Parsimony fit PGFI P0.60 (Mulaik et al., 1989) 0.664 A A A 3.62 3.79 3.56 3.94
indices AB A (or B (or 3.58 3.28 3.28 3.86
PNFI P0.60 (Williams & Hazer, 1986) 0.708 B) A)
B B B 3.66 2.82 2.95 3.42
BC B (or C (or 3.28 2.08 2.60 3.10
C) B)
C C C 2.55 2.29 2.40 2.79

Table 4
The Results of ANOVA.

Variable Sum of DF Mean F Sig.

squares square
System Between 37.951 4 9.488 48.685 0.000
quality groups
Within 37.221 191 0.195
groups
Total 75.172 195
Service Between 66.741 4 16.685 89.373 0.000
quality groups
Fig. 3. The results of SEM (⁄⁄path is significant at the 0.05 level; ⁄path is significant
Within 35.658 191 0.187
at the 0.1 level).
groups
Total 102.399 195
Trust Between 35.620 4 8.905 65.239 0.000
and k-means algorithm. System quality was measured with 4 vari- groups
ables and service quality and trust were also measured with 4 vari- Within 26.071 191 0.136
ables through survey. Cluster analyses were performed using SOM groups
and k-means algorithm while the values of variables for each factor Total 61.691 195
 T. Hong, E. Kim / Expert Systems with Applications 39 (2012) 2127–2131
Table 5
Response rates for each customer segment.
Segment Customer’s response rates*
A 56.00% (28/50)
AB 44.44% (4/9)
B 24.69% (20/81)
BC 20.00% (3/15)
C 9.76% (4/41)
*
No. of purchase customers/(no. of purchase customers + no. of non-purchase
customers).
online store needs to motivate their visits through discount cou-
pons or recommend products according to their preferences.
We classified those customers who gave strong and very strong
responses for the intention to purchase into purchase customers
and the others into non-purchase customers (Table 5). Segment
A implies that the probability of purchase is over 55%. In contrast,
the probability of purchase decreased to below 10% in segment C.
Concentrated marketing on segment A is more effective than gen-
eral marketing for all customers because the purchasing rates for
promotional marketing are about 10% in general (Malthouse and
Blattberg, 2005). Thus, the identification of customers by segment
enables online stores to concentrate their resources on more valu-
able and more promising e-customers.
4.3. Inferring customer’s segment
We utilized the k-nearest neighbours method to identify cus-
tomers’ segments because all customers could not be segmented
in the clustering model in advance. SOM and k-means algorithm
are not practical for large data sets because of their space complex-
ity depending on the size of data set. Even if it is possible to cluster
large data sets, the customer database in online stores is not static
but dynamic for a split second because database should keep up-
to-date records about customers by inserting new customers,
who have just completed their registration to online stores. The
k-nearest neighbours method helps online stores to cease from
endless clustering by finding nearest neighbours. The k-nearest
neighbours method infers nearest segments for new customers
by computing the pairwise distance between segmented custom-
ers and new customers. In addition, customers are not willing to
present online stores with their intention to purchase. But, they
will not resist responding to questions that are related to the three
factors when they think the questions are not sensitive to financial
action. Thus, we tried to find customer segment that is most likely
to purchase by our approach without trying to ask customers
whether they would purchase.
The k-nearest neighbours approach inferred 39 test cases based
on 157 reference cases for classifying customers’ segments. We
found that the performance of k-nearest neighbours with k = 1
was most optimal while we simulated the experiments with
k = 1 to 10. The accuracy of the k-nearest neighbours approach
with k = 1 is 89.74%. This means that we can identify customers’
segments with about 10% error without information on customers’
intention to purchase.
5. Conclusions
This study proposed an approach that enables online stores to
offer customized marketing by segmenting their customers based
on customers’ psychographic data. We have developed a research
model to explain customers’ intention to purchase in online stores
and tested the model statistically with structured equation model.
We found that the three factors are statistically significant: system
quality, service quality, and customer trust.
2131
Based on the research model, we clustered by integrating the
k-means algorithm and SOM for more sophisticated segmentation
of customers. We gained five clusters through segmenting custom-
ers and investigated the customer’s intention to purchase for each
segment. We also developed and suggested marketing strategies
for each segment. Our approach will be helpful for online stores
to provide a personalized marketing strategy to existing customers
as well as new customers. Finally, we applied the k-nearest neigh-
bours method for classifying customers that are not included in the
data set for clustering. Our approach helps marketing managers to
identify all their customers, who are almost not known, in advance
and to give differentiated marketing programs. The predictive
accuracy of k-nearest neighbours in the cases was sufficient for
applying our approach in promotional marketing. In further study,
we hope that other main data mining techniques such as neural
networks, support vector machines, and decision trees will support
our results with more plentiful data set.
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