Professional Documents
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Weather Modification (1966)
Weather Modification (1966)
10a
November 1966
A Report to the
Interdepartmental Committee for
Atmospheric Sciences
bY
Homer E. Newell
Associate Administrator for Space Science and Application
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National Aeronautics Si Space Administration
Washington, D.C. -0I
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Interdepartmental Committee I
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for Q
Atmospheric Sciences
. e . "I. .
CHARtES V. KIDD
Executive Secretary
J. HEREERT H O L L W N I chsim
Federal Council f o r Science and Technology
November 7, 1966
J. Herbert Hollomon
Chairman
A Recommended National Program
In Weather Modification
A Report to the
Interdepartmental Committee for
Atmospheric Sciences
bY
Homer E. Newel1
Associate Administrator for Space Science and Applications
lVational Aeronadcs A Space Administration
Washington, D.C.'
1 October 1966
A RECOMMENDED NATIONAL PROGRAM IN WEATHER MODIFICATION
INTRODUCTION
M o d i f i c a t i o n Program a l o n g t h e l i n e s d e l i n e a t e d i n t h e
r e p o r t of t h e ICAS S e l e c t P a n e l on Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n .
APPROACH
I e l e c t e d t o c o n c e n t r a t e a t t e n t i o n on t h e above
f o u r a g e n c i e s , s i n c e t h e i r programs, a s set f o r t h i n
t h e ICAS S e l e c t Panel R e p o r t , p r o j e c t t o over 98% of
t h e t o t a l n a t i o n a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t y i n
1970. Because t h e programs of t h e Department of Defense,
t h e F e d e r a l A v i a t i o n Agency, and t h e N a t i o n a l A e r o n a u t i c s
and Space A d m i n i s t r a t i o n w e r e such a s m a l l p a r t o f t h e
t o t a l , t h e y w e r e n o t reviewed i n d e t a i l .
I n a s s e s s i n g t h e v a l i d i t y o f cost e s t i m a t e s , I
sought t o d e t e r m i n e r e a l i s t i c and r e a s o n a b l e orders of
magnitude. P a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n was p a i d t o a s s e s s i n g
RECOMMENDED PRINCIPLES
C e r t a i n p r i n c i p l e s w e r e developed which u n d e r l i e
t h e program recommendations. It i s recommended t h a t
these p r i n c i p l e s be a c c e p t e d i n t h e development of the
N a t i o n a l Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n Program. It i s i n t e n d e d
t h a t t h e p r i n c i p l e s a p p l y t o a l l a g e n c i e s involved i n
weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s , and n o t j u s t t o t h o s e
whose programs are d i s c u s s e d i n d e t a i l i n t h i s r e p o r t ,
The p r i n c i p l e s a r e :
1. There i s s u f f i c i e n t p o t e n t i a l payoff i n d i c a t e d
b y t h e r e s u l t s of p a s t r e s e a r c h t o j u s t i f y
c o n t i n u i n g b a s i c and a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h i n the
area of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .
2. The p o t e n t i a l d o l l a r s a v i n g s i n l e s s e n i n g the
d e s t r u c t i v e e f f e c t s of w e a t h e r , and t h e poten-
t i a l g a i n s i n enhancing t h e b e n e f i c i a l e f f e c t s ,
a r e so g r e a t t h a t e x p e n d i t u r e s of a p p r e c i a b l e
d o l l a r s on weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h and
a p p l i c a t i o n can be j u s t i f i e d .
weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , p r o p e r l y r e l a t e d t o
weather o b s e r v a t i o n and weather r e s e a r c h . (Such
a l e a d agency would, however, n o t have a u t h o r i t y
t o c o n t r o l t h e c o n t e n t of o t h e r agency programs.)
4. It is of v a l u e and d e s i r a b l e t o m a i n t a i n m u l t i p l e
agency approach t o weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h
and a p p l i c a t i o n , w i t h independent f u n d i n g f o r
the d i f f e r e n t agencies.
5. An agency t h a t h a s a major m i s s i o n r e s p o n s i b i l i t y
r e q u i r i n g weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , f o r example,
augmenting w a t e r r e s o u r c e s or minimizing f o r e s t
f i r e s , must be an a c t i v e p a r t i c i p a n t i n t h e
t o t a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program, b u t w i t h
t h e a g e n c y ' s m i s s i o n f o c u s i n g and b r o a d l y
defining its activity.
6. To a c h i e v e t h e m o s t e f f e c t i v e a p p l i c a t i o n of
weather m o d i f i c a t i o n t o i t s m i s s i o n o b j e c t i v e s ,
a m i s s i o n agency must u n d e r s t a n d t h e b a s i c
problems, and hence must be i n v o l v e d s i g n i f i -
c a n t l y i n r e l a t e d research. Thus, w h i l e t h e
a g e n c y ' s m i s s i o n should f o c u s i t s p a r t i c i p a t i o n
i n the weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program, t h e m i s s i o n
should n o t t o o narrowly c o n f i n e t h a t p a r t i c i p a -
tion.
7. The v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n t h e
weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program must s u p p o r t each
o t h e r w i t h t h e i r e x p e r i e n c e and c a p a b i l i t i e s .
I n a r e a s where s e v e r a l f e d e r a l a g e n c i e s have
needs f o r l a b o r a t o r i e s and l a r g e f a c i l i t i e s , j o i n t
u s e should be made of such f a c i l i t i e s . S i m i l a r l y ,
e x i s t i n g competence s h o u l d , i n g e n e r a l , be used by
o t h e r agencies r a t h e r than duplicated. I n
p a r t i c u l a r , t h e c e n t r a l agency h a v i n g r e s p o n s i b i l i t y
f o r f o c u s i n g the n a t i o n a l program i n t o a p r o p e r l y
b a l a n c e d and i n t e g r a t e d t o t a l must n o t a t t e m p t t o
7
do e v e r y t h i n g i t s e l f f o r everybody: r a t h e r , it
s h o u l d b u i l d j u d i c i o u s l y upon t h e a c t i v i t i e s ,
c a p a b i l i t i e s , a n d ' m i s s i o n r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s of
t h e various p a r t i c i p a t i n g agencies.
OBSERVATIONS
A s w e l l as I could d e t e r m i n e , t h e v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s
a r e counting i n l a r g e measure on u s i n g t h e same people
a t v a r i o u s c o n t r a c t o r s and u n i v e r s i t i e s t o h e l p c a r r y
o u t the planned programs. ESSA a p p e a r s t o have t h e
k i n d and q u a n t i t i e s of people r e q u i r e d t o mount a
vigorous program i n weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h , b u t
t h e a b i l i t y t o b u i l d up program a c t i v i t y a t a n y t h i n g l i k e
t h e proposed r a t e s would depend upon whether t h e s e people
can a c t u a l l y be r e a s s i g n e d from t h e i r p r e s e n t d u t i e s .
I n g e n e r a l t h e r e was a l a r g e d i s p a r i t y between p r o j e c t e d
manpower a v a i l a b i l i t i e s and r e q u i r e m e n t s . T h i s s e r v e s t o
emphasize t h a t proposed r a t e s of program growth a r e
indeed t o o h i g h , and a l s o t h a t a vigorous e f f o r t should
be made t o i n c r e a s e t h e t o t a l n a t i o n a l competence i n t h e
weather m o d i f i c a t i o n f i e l d .
I n g e n e r a l , t h e proposed program c o n t e n t f o r a l l
f o u r a g e n c i e s a p p e a r s sound, being based on a s s e s s m e n t s of
p o t e n t i a l p r a c t i c a l r e t u r n s , or on a r e c o g n i t i o n of t h e
need f o r r e s e a r c h . Except f o r q u e s t i o n s of u n d e s i r a b l e
d u p l i c a t i o n , my c r i t i c i s m l i e s n o t i n t h e s u b j e c t con-
t e n t of proposed programs, b u t r a t h e r i n t h e a r e a s o f
program p h a s i n g , proposed r a t e s of growth, and t h e
v a l i d i t y of d o l l a r estimates.
10
Major T h r u s t o f P r o q r a m
Budqet
1. I t i s recommended t h a t t h e a g e n c i e s p a r t i c i -
p a t i n g i n the weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program
g i v e e a r l y a t t e n t i o n t o t h e development of
v a l i d budget f i g u r e s , w i t h p a r t i c u l a r a t t e n -
t i o n t o r e a l i s t i c rates of growth, and v a l i d
e s t i m a t e s of manpower a v a i l a b i l i t y .
i n t h e m e a n t i m e , t h e s e may be t a k e n a s i n d i c a t i n g my
j u d g m e n t a s t o r e a s o n a b l e orders o f m a g n i t u d e .
D e p a r t m e n t o f A q r i c u l t u r e Proqram
I b e l i e v e t h a t a weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program o f
a b o u t $600K i n FY 1967' g r o w i n g t o $7M i n FY 1 9 7 0 i s
justifiable. About h a l f o f t h e FY 1 9 7 0 f i g u r e i s f o r
f a c i l i t i e s , i n c l u d i n g p u r c h a s e a n d o p e r a t i o n of s m a l l
a i r c r a f t a n d a much n e e d e d r e s e a r c h l a b o r a t o r y . If
r e s e a r c h y e t t o be d o n e shows a m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d program
i n h a i l s u p p r e s s i o n t o be w a r r a n t e d , t h e FY 1 9 7 0 f i g u r e
c o u l d be l a r g e r .
1. D i r e c t m o d i f i c a t i o n o f weather
2. E c o l o g i c a l a n d s u p p o r t i n g research
T h e s e r e l a t e i n the main t o t h e s u p p r e s s i o n o f s p e c i f i c
h a r m f u l e f f e c t s o f weather phenomena, a n d a s t u d y o f
t h e e f f e c t s o f weather m o d i f i c a t i o n upon f a r m a n d f o r e s t
crops a n d o n l a n d management i n g e n e r a l .
The d i r e c t w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n p o r t i o n o f the
program i n c l u d e s p r i m a r i l y a n e x p a n d e d l i g h t n i n g s u p p r e s -
s i o n e f f o r t a n d a new e f f o r t d i r e c t e d t o w a r d h a i l s u p -
p r e s s i o n , t h e Department s t a t e s : " P r o j e c t S k y f i r e of
t h e U . S . F o r e s t Service i s p e r f o r m i n g a n a c t i v e research
program a i m e d a t s u p p r e s s i o n o f l i g h t n i n g w h i c h c a u s e s
some 1 0 , 0 0 0 f o r e s t f i r e s a n n u a l l y i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s .
A f i e l d e x p e r i m e n t i s t e s t i n g the e f f e c t s o f v e r y heavy
s e e d i n g w i t h s i l v e r i o d i d e o n l i g h t n i n g storms. The
r e s u l t s t o d a t e s h o w a 32 p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n i n c l o u d -
to-ground l i g h t n i n g from seeded storms. A s p e c i a l l y
i n s t r u m e n t e d f i e l d area u t i l i z i n g three r a d a r s a n d a
n e t w o r k of l i g h t n i n g s e n s o r s t a t i o n s i s u s e d f o r the
12
i n t e r e s t i n h a i l suppression. N o s c i e n t i f i c d e t a i l s
w e r e s u b m i t t e d , however, t o j u s t i f y u n d e r t a k i n g a large-
s c a l e program a t t h i s t i m e . S c i e n t i f i c r e s u l t s t o date
are inadequate f o r d e f i n i n g a v a l i d program t o a p p l y
h a i l s u p p r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s t o such a p p l i c a t i o n s as
crop protection.
i n species b r o u g h t a b o u t t h r o u g h weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , f o r
e x a m p l e , i n v o l v e considerable u n c e r t a i n t i e s r e l a t i v e t o
t h e s p e c i f i c r e s u l t s of w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n . I t is v e r y
i m p o r t a n t , theref ore, t o e s t a b l i s h e a r l y t h e n e c e s s a r y
b a s e l i n e data f o r l a t e r c o m p a r i s o n s a n d a n a l y s e s .
S i m i l a r l y , a program i n boundary l a y e r e f f e c t s g e n e r a t e d
t h r o u g h w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n must d e a l w i t h d i f f i c u l t i e s
of e s t a b l i s h i n g f i r m l y a t r u e c a u s e - a n d - e f f e c t r e l a t i o n -
ship.
I c o n c l u d e t h a t the b u d g e t s u b m i s s i o n b y A g r i c u l -
t u r e f o r research i n t h e e c o l o g i c a l a n d s u p p o r t i n g research
p o r t i o n s of t h e p r o g r a m i s i n e x c e s s of the present
capability.
N e v e r t h e l e s s , I f e e l t h a t growth i n
these f u n d a m e n t a l areas i s d e s i r a b l e a n d s h o u l d be
supported.
D e p a r t m e n t of I n t e r i o r Proqram
I recommend a D e p a r t m e n t o f I n t e r i o r b u d g e t f o r
w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s of a b o u t $3M i n FY 1967
g r o w i n g t o a b o u t $35M i n FY 1 9 7 0 , i n c l u d i n g n e e d e d
f a c i l i t i e s and o p e r a t i o n . The main t h r u s t of I n t e r i o r ' s
p r o g r a m i s i n t h e area of p r e c i p i t a t i o n a u g m e n t a t i o n .
The D e p a r t m e n t of I n t e r i o r has b e e n a s s i g n e d n a t i o n a l
w a t e r r e s o u r c e management r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s , a n d t h u s a n
e f f o r t i n t h e e x p l o i t a t i o n a n d u t i l i z a t i o n of t h e w a t e r
r e s o u r c e is c l e a r l y a n I n t e r i o r m i s s i o n a n d i s i n t h e
national interest.
The s i n g u l a r o b j e c t i v e of I n t e r i o r ' s A t m o s p h e r i c
Water R e s o u r c e s Program has b e e n t o a s c e r t a i n t h e t e c h n i -
c a l a n d e c o n o m i c f e a s i b i l i t y of i n c r e a s i n g the w a t e r
s u p p l y f o r B u r e a u of R e c l a m a t i o n p r o j e c t s t h r o u g h
weather modification. Research r e s u l t s t o d a t e show
s u f f i c i e n t promise t h a t t h e p r o g r a m h a s b e e n r e o r i e n t e d
t o r e f l e c t t h e e v e n t u a l goal of t h e "effective,
16
b e n e f i c i a l u t i l i z a t i o n of t h e n a t i o n ' s atmospheric
w a t e r resources. 'I*
T h e s u p p o r t i n g budget m a t e r i a l s u b m i t t e d t o t h e
P a n e l d i s c u s s e d t h e establishment of f i e l d l a b o r a t o r i e s
which would i n c l u d e t h e f o l l o w i n g n e c e s s a r y f a c i l i t i e s :
r a d a r and rawinsonde i n s t a l l a t i o n s , b a l l o o n i n f l a t i o n
s h e l t e r s , r e p a i r s h o p s , a i r p o r t s , temporary h o u s i n g ,
etc. I f e e l t h a t t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of an e x t e n s i v e
~ e t s - m r kof such field s t a t i o n s i s a p p r o p r i a t e t e c h n i c a l l y
and e v e n t u a l l y s h o u l d be accomplished w i t h i n t h e Depart-
ment of I n t e r i o r ' s m i s s i o n . I estimate t h a t n o t more t h a n
t e n f i e l d s i t e s a r e c o n s i s t e n t with t h e a p p a r e n t poten-
t i a l i t i e s of t h e Department-of I n t e r i o r through t h e
FY 1970 t i m e period. The c o s t per f i e l d s i t e a s deduced
from t h e m a t e r i a l provided b y I n t e r i o r i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y
2% m i l l i o n d o l l a r s i n c l u d i n g such equipment i t e m s a s
weather r a d a r , rawinsondes, t e l e m e t r y s e t s , t r a c e r
d i s p e n s e r s , and a t o t a l of a b o u t e i g h t t w i n e n g i n e a i r -
c r a f t f o r t h e t e n f i e l d sites. This equipment i s
r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of t h e proposed s i t e implementation s e t
f o r t h i n the m a t e r i a l supplied b y I n t e r i o r .
I recommend t h a t I n t e r i o r c o l l a b o r a t e w i t h ESSA i n
a c c o m p l i s h i n g I n t e r i o r ' s m i s s i o n of augmenting p r e c i p i t a -
t i o n i n t h e e a s t e r n o r n o r t h e a s t e r n s e c t o r of the c o u n t r y .
I b e l i e v e t h a t there are s i g n i f i c a n t advantages t o
I n t e r i o r ' s d e v e l o p i n g a f i r m , c l e a r l y d e f i n e d agreement
w i t h ESSA t o accomplish t h i s c o l l a b o r a t i v e e f f o r t . Such
a n arrangement would s p r e a d t h e base of t h e government's
e x p e r i e n c e i n t h i s f i e l d . I t would p e r m i t ESSA t o
i n t e g r a t e the p r e c i p i t a t i o n augmentation a c t i v i t y w i t h
a b r o a d e r program of r e s e a r c h on t h e p h y s i c s and
18
ESSA Proqram
' 2. M o d i f i c a t i o n of C o l l o i d a l S t a b i l i t y : A n
a t t e m p t would be made t o s e e d t r o p i c a l m a r i t i m e c l o u d s
with condensation n u c l e i i n order t o increase t h e i r
c o l l o i d a l s t a b i l i t y and t o p r e v e n t r a i n . This a c t i v i t y
may e n t e r a s e m i - o p e r a t i o n a l s t a t e d u r i n g FY 1972.
4. Cumulus D y n a m i c s : T h i s i s p a r t of P r o j e c t
Storm Fury. I t i n v o l v e s the c o n t i n u e d s t u d y of cumulus
dynamics by means of t h e release of heat of f u s i o n
through s e e d i n g w i t h p y r o t e c h n i c s . A two-year c y c l e of
randomized f i e l d e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n i s f o r e s e e n i n t h e
Barbados I s l a n d a r e a , which p e r m i t s s t u d y of b o t h
m a r i t i m e and c o n t i n e n t a l c l o u d s .
A r e a s of a c t i v i t y w i l l be Norman, Oklahoma;
Boulder, Colorado: and F l a g s t a f f , Arizona.
21
6. I n a d v e r t e n t M o d i f i c a t i o n : I n a d v e r t e n t modifica-
t i o n of the weather o c c u r s because of p o l l u t i o n of t h e
atmosphere by a r t i f i c i a l gaseous and p a r t i c u l a t e c o n s t i t u -
e n t s , and changes i n s u r f a c e c h a r a c t e r and a l b e d o due t c ?
a g r i c u l t u r e and c o n s t r u c t i o n . The effects of a i r p o l l u t i o n
become a p p a r e n t i n three a r e a s : atmospheric c h e m i s t r y ,
o p t i c s , and e l e c t r i c i t y , a l l o f which are s t u d i e d i n t h i s
program.
(b) Albedo, t u r b i d i t y , r a d i a t i o n , a e r o s o l s :
I t i s planned t o s t a r t on a s y s t e m a t i c r e s e a r c h program
t o s t u d y t h e s e parameters.
Research under t h i s p r o j e c t w i 11 p r o b a b l y r e q u i r e
many y e a r s .
22
(a) C o n s t r u c t i o n of a f l u i d m o d e l f o r t h e s t u d y
of i n f l u x c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n t o t o r n a d i c storms.
P l a n s c a l l f o r a d i v e r s i f i e d approach. In the
i n i t i a l phase t h e t o t a l p r e c i p i t a b l e w a t e r w i l l be s t u d i e d
u s i n g a network of e x i s t i n g U . S . weather i n s t r u m e n t s .
T h i s s t u d y w i l l be d e s i g n e d t o f u r n i s h the i n f l u x of
vapor a c r o s s t h e s h o r e s of the Gulf of Mexico f o r c e r t a i n
weather s i t u a t i o n s , o r f r o m t h e Gulf of C a l i f o r n i a , f o r
i n s t a n c e , f o r t h e s h o r t p e r i o d of the summer monsoon
which i s s o i m p o r t a n t t o Arizona. The second phase
c a l l s f o r a m e t e o r o l o g i c a n a l y t i c s t u d y of t h e w a t e r
budget of s t o r m s , supplemented b y a i r c r a f t and r a d i o s o n d e
network d a t a c o l l e c t i o n .
23
s e c t i o n on I n t e r i o r , I propose t h a t I n t e r i o r c o l l a b o r a t e
w i t h ESSA on a l a r g e - s c a l e f i e l d program i n p r e c i p i t a t i o n
augmentation i n t h e e a s t e r n o r n o r t h e a s t e r n s e c t i o n i n
keeping w i t h the c o n c e p t t h a t t h e Department of I n t e r i o r
h a s m i s s i o n r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i n w a t e r r e s o u r c e s enhancement
while ESSA should conduct a b r o a d program of e x p l o r a t o r y
r e s e a r c h i n t o t h e p o t e n t i a l s and s c i e n t i f i c bases f o r
weather m o d i f i c a t i o n . A v e r y i m p o r t a n t r e a s o n t h a t ESSA
undertake t h i s work w i t h I n t e r i o r under a memorandum of
u n d e r s t a n d i n g i s so t h a t ESSA may i n t e g r a t e t h i s a c t i v i t y
w i t h t h e i r b r o a d e r program of r e s e a r c h on t h e p h y s i c s and
dynamics of weather,
ESSA f e e l s t h a t a more a c c u r a t e d e s c r i p t i o n of t h e
storms can be o b t a i n e d by i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the observa-
t i o n s i n l i g h t of c o n s t r a i n i n g p r i n c i p l e s of m a s s
c o n t i n u i t y and e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n o r c o n v e r s i o n ,
25
I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e o r e t i c a l s t u d i e s and d a t a a n a l y s i s ,
some i m p o r t a n t p r e s e n t and planned e f f o r t s a r e :
Round-the-clock r a d a r s u r v e i l l a n c e and
data r e c o r d i n g . T h i s should p r o v i d e means
f o r d e t e r m i n i n g a s s o c i a t i o n s among s e v e r e
storm o c c u r r e n c e s and topography, t i m e of
day, s e a s o n , and s y n o p t i c m e t e o r o l o g i c a l
p a r a m e t e r s , and w i l l provide a body of con-
t r o l d a t a f o r the better e v a l u a t i o n of
a t t e m p t s b y NSSL and o t h e r a g e n c i e s t o
.modify Oklahoma storms.
I n s t a l l a t i o n of a d d i t i o n a l mesonetwork s u r f a c e
s t a t i o n s between e x i s t i n g ones now located 10
t o 15 m i l e s a p a r t . A d d i t i o n a l s t a t i o n s are
needed t o record a d e q u a t e l y t h e scales of motion
c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of severe s t o r m s .
C o n s t r u c t i o n of a l0cm-Doppler r a d a r f o r
improved v e l o c i t y measuring c a p a b i l i t y a t
l o n g e r range.
S c i e n t i s t s a t t h e N a t i o n a l H u r r i c a n e Research Labora-
t o r y , M i a m i , F l o r i d a , and c o o p e r a t i n g groups are s t u d y i n g
t h e h u r r i c a n e and i t s environment, and o t h e r t r o p i c a l
c i r c u l a t i o n s t h a t e i t h e r may become a h u r r i c a n e or a f f e c t
t h e development of one. The f o l l o w i n g d i s c u s s i o n f u r n i s h e d
b y ESSA g i v e s t h e r a t i o n a l e f o r t h e h u r r i c a n e research
program.
W e can now describe the s t r u c t u r e of a
m a t u r e h u r r i c a n e i n great d e t a i l and c a n even
estimate p r o b a b l e v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e s t r u c t u r e
w i t h t i m e i n the same h u r r i c a n e or b e t w e e n
hurricanes. O u r knowledge of t h e s t r u c t u r e
of d e v e l o p i n g and d i s s i p a t i n g t r o p i c a l
c y c l o n e s i s less complete, b u t even i n
these c a s e s many d a t a have been c o l l e c t e d
and analyzed.
I n s p i t e of a l l t h e p r o g r e s s t h a t h a s been
made i n h u r r i c a n e r e s e a r c h i n r e c e n t y e a r s ,
much needs t o be done b e f o r e w e c a n (1) g a i n
a n adequate u n d e r s t a n d i n g of many d e t a i l s of
the energy p r o c e s s e s i n h u r r i c a n e s , (2) s a t i s -
f a c t o r i l y explain or p r e d i c t t h e formation
and i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of t r o p i c a l c y c l o n e s , o r
( 3 ) d e v e l o p r e a l i s t i c and a c c u r a t e dynamical
n u m e r i c a l models of h u r r i c a n e s .
E f f o r t s t o a c q u i r e a better understanding of
t h e g e n e s i s p r o c e s s , and t o develop t e c h n i q u e s
f o r p r e d i c t i n g h u r r i c a n e formation and f u r t h e r
i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n a r e l i k e w i s e handicapped b y
l a c k of d a t a . T h i s i s due t o t h e f a c t t h a t
t h e favored g e n e s i s a r e a s a r e o u t s i d e t h e
c o n v e n t i o n a l d a t a networks, Some of t h e needed
d a t a can be o b t a i n e d by r e s e a r c h a i r c r a f t .
C o l l e c t i o n of t h e s e d a t a could be g r e a t l y
a c c e l e r a t e d , however, with more a i r c r a f t of
g r e a t e r range. The improved weather s a t e l l i t e s
a r e already helping this data collection e f f o r t
and t h e synchronous s a t e l l i t e should be of
great assistance. I t is hoped t h a t t h e t r o p i c a l
experiment and t h e improved d a t a c o l l e c t i o n
e f f o r t s proposed f o r the World Weather Watch
w i l l a l s o be u s e f u l .
Along w i t h t h e i n c r e a s e d e f f o r t s a t s p e c i a l i z e d
c o l l e c t i o n , t h e r e should be more t h e o r e t i c a l
investigations. These should i n c l u d e n o t o n l y
t h e s t u d y of t h e h u r r i c a n e b u t a l s o t h e o t h e r
circulations i n the tropics. It i s u n l i k e l y t h a t
w e w i l l e v e r f u l l y understand t h e h u r r i c a n e
u n t i l we have a b e t t e r understanding of i t s
environment.
28
A s a n o t e of c a u t i o n , I f e e l a p o i n t s h o u l d be made
on t h e complexity of t h e proposed r e s e a r c h . A s i l l u s t r a t e d
b y c u r r e n t p r o g r e s s w i t h P r o j e c t s t o r m Fury, t h e proba-
b i l i t y of a c q u i r i n g a h u r r i c a n e f o r m o d i f i c a t i o n purp0se.c
a t t h i s t i m e s e e m s t o be a b o u t t h r e e storms e v e r y t w o
years. Indeed, c u r r e n t e f f o r t s have y e t t o a c q u i r e t h c
f i r s t such storm w e l l i n t o t h e second y e a r of o p e r a t i o n .
For h u r r i c a n e s t u d i e s and p o s s i b l e m o d i f i c a t i o n , e x p e n s i v e
f a c i l i t i e s such as f l i g h t research a i r c r a f t are r e q u i r e d
on a s e a s o n a l basis, w i t h t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t n a t u r a l
v a r i a n c e i n t h e desired weather p a t t e r n p r o h i b i t s a
p r e d i c t i o n of how l o n g such r e s e a r c h must be c o n t i n u e d
b e f o r e meaningful r e s u l t s can be expected.
N S F Proqram
I recommend an i n c r e a s e i n t h e N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e
Foundation (NSF) weather m o d i f i c a t i o n budget t o a b o u t $ 5 M
i n F Y 1967, growing t o $20M i n FY 1970. The F Y 1970 f i g u r e
i n c l u d e s $10M f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of a l a r g e - s c a l e simula-
t i o n f a c i l i t y f o r basic r e s e a r c h i n c l o u d p h y s i c s t o be
erected and o p e r a t e d b y t h e N a t i o n a l Center f o r Atmospheric
Research JNCAR), I f p l a n n i n g f o r t h e f a c i l i t y moves r a p i d l y ,
some of t h e $10M might be needed e a r l i e r t h a n FY 1970.
research performed b y m i s s i o n a g e n c i e s , b u t w i l l s u p p o r t
r e s e a r c h i n t h o s e m u l t i - d i s c i p l i n e areas which w i l l
supplement o r e x t e n d o t h e r weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h
a l r e a d y underway and w i l l develop t h e n a t i o n ' s r e s o u r c e s
of knowledge and manpower i n new and i m a g i n a t i v e a r e a s . " "
1. Cloud Dynamics: B a s i c s t u d i e s w i l l be c o n t i n u e d
on t h e motions of c l o u d s , and t h e e f f e c t s upon t h e i r
growth or decay produced b y the release or a b s o r p t i o n of
t h e h e a t of c o n d e n s a t i o n and h e a t of f u s i o n which may be
produced o r induced b y n a t u r a l o r a r t i f i c i a l s t i m u l u s .
These stuLies w i l l be c a r r i e d on t h r o u g h a c t u a l observa-
t i o n s of c l o u d s i n t h e i r n a t u r a l environment, i n s i m c l a -
t i o n chambers i n the l a b o r a t o r y , o r b y t h e o r e t i c a l models
u s i n g h i g h speed computers.
i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n i n t h e f i e l d , i n c l o u d chambers o r c l o u d
tunnels i n the laboratory, or by t h e o r e t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s
u s i n g mathematical models. T h e c o n t r i b u t i o n of e l e c t r i c a l
f o r c e s t o c o a l e s c e n c e p r o c e s s e s w i l l a l s o be s t u d i e d .
The u n i v e r s i t y r e s e a r c h i n weather m o d i f i c a t i o n t o be
supported b y NSF p r o v i d e s t h e primary mechanism f o r producing
t h e numbers of t r a i n e d s c i e n t i s t s t h a t the t o t a l program w i l l
require. E x c e s s i v e f u n d i n g from NSF, however, would
31
monopolize a major s o u r c e of q u a l i f i e d p e r s o n n e l t h a t t h e
o t h e r agency programs must r e l y on. I recommend, t h e r e f o r e ,
a f u n d i n g l e v e l f o r NSF s u f f i c i e n t t o s u p p o r t a b o u t h a l f of
what NSF e s t i m a t e s t o be t h e t o t a l c a p a c i t y o f t h e
academic community i n t h e area of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n
i n a d d i t i o n t o a c t i v i t i e s a t NCAR. T h i s l e v e l of s u p p o r t
would c l e a r l y p e r m i t NSF t o fund programs a d e q u a t e l y t h a t
a r e now b e i n g "stretched" and would p r o v i d e t h e s t i m u l u s
needed t o b e t t e r s a t i s f y t h e NSF program s t a t e d above. I
recommend f u r t h e r , because of t h e fundamental importance of
a c h i e v i n g t h e three o b j e c t i v e s as e a r l y as p o s s i b l e , t h a t
t h e N S F b u d g e t be i n c r e a s e d immediately t o the l e v e l s
s u g g e s t e d above.
Capital Facilities
I s u p p o r t , i n g e n e r a l , the agency p r o p o s a l s
f o r e x t e n s i v e c a p i t a l f a c i l i t i e s which are n e c e s s a r y
t o c a r r y o u t r e s e a r c h and development a s w e l l as
o p e r a t i o n a l m i s s i o n s . Such f a c i l i t i e s i n c l u d e a i r c r a f t ,
e x t e n s i v e f i e l d i n s t a l l a t i o n s c o n s i s t i n g of m e t e o r o l o g i c a l
s e n s o r networks and d a t a a n a l y s i s f a c i l i t i e s , l a r g e
l a b o r a t o r y i n s t a l l a t i o n s (cloud chambers, e t c . ) , and h i g h -
s p e e d , l a r g e - c a p a c i t y d i g i t a l computers f o r modeling of
a t m o s p h e r i c p r o c e s s e s . A l l o c a t i o n of f a c i l i t i e s s h o u l d
be b a s e d on t h e f o l l o w i n g p r i n c i p l e s :
1. If a major f a c i l i t y s e r v e s a s p e c i a l mission-
o r i e n t e d purpose and f u l l - t i m e u s e can be
j u s k i f i e d f o r t h a t purpose, the f a c i l i t y s h o u l d
be e s t a b l i s h e d and o p e r a t e d b y t h e s p e c i f i c
e l e m e n t of t h e agency charged w i t h t h a t mission.
2. If a f a c i l i t y i s n o t used f o r one s p e c i f i c
m i s s i o n , b u t can be j u s t i f i e d on a f u l l - t i m e
use b a s i s f o r g e n e r a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n
purposes by one s i n g l e agency, t h a t agency
should e s t a b l i s h and o p e r a t e t h e f a c i l i t y .
3 . I f a f a c i l i t y is f o r general-purpose use, b u t
i s so e x t e n s i v e t h a t f u l l - t i m e u s e c a n n o t be
j u s t i f i e d b y a s i n g l e agency, t h e n t h e u s e of t h e
f a c i l i t y w i l l have t o be s h a r e d b y the a g e n c i e s
and t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r i t s e s t a b l i s h m e n t and
o p e r a t i o n s h o u l d be a s s i g n e d on a case-by-case
basis.
S p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e major f i e l d s i t e s , large c l o u d
chambers, large-scale computers, and large-scale
integrated f l y i n g l a b o r a t o r i e s f a l l i n t o t h i s
category .
33
The p r e s e n t - d a y o p e r a t i o n i n modeling t e c h n i q u e s
and numerical f o r e c a s t i n g p r o c e d u r e s i n d i c a t e s .
t h a t a l a r g e - s c a l e , y e t t o be developed, computer
may w e l l be r e q u i r e d . T h e p l a n n i n g of i n d u s t r y
i n r e g a r d t o l a r g e computers needs t o be known.
A l s o , t h e basic research of t h e programs recom-
mended e a r l i e r i n t h i s r e p o r t should c l a r i f y
t h e r o l e of such computers, and may indeed re-
move some of t h e need f o r them. H e r e a g a i n ,
however, I recommend a c a r e f u l p l a n n i n g phase.
I a l s o recommend t h a t ESSA should e s t a b l i s h a n d
o p e r a t e l a r g e - s c a l e d i g i t a l computers f o r t h e
purpose of a p p l y i n g a t m o s p h e r i c c i r c u l a t i o n models
t o weather m o d i f i c a t i o n . I t is e x p e c t e d t h a t
e s t a b l i s h m e n t and o p e r a t i o n of these computing
f a c i l i t i e s c o u l d be funded a t l e a s t p a r t i a l l y
by, a n d s h a r e d w i t h , o t h e r programs w i t h i n ESSA.
While I f e e l t h a t a l a r g e mobile f l i g h t f a c i l i t y , f o r
both weather and weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h i s
important t o the l o n g r a n g e development of t h e s e
f i e l d s , I a m unable t o determine a t t h i s t i m e what
would be a r e a s o n a b l e program f o r t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t
of such a f a c i l i t y . I b e l i e v e it would be w i s e t o
f o l l o w a s t e p - b y - s t e p p r o c e s s of a r r i v i n g a t an
optinum l a r g e - s c a l e f l i g h t f a c i l i t y , i n which the
development and use b y i n d i v i d u a l a g e n c i e s of t h e i r
own n e c e s s a r y smaller-scale f l i g h t f a c i l i t i e s would
be v 3 l u a b l e l e a r n i n g steps. I feel t h a t the l a t t e r
should not be n e g l e c t e d i n t h e h a s t e t o b r i n g a
l a r g e - s c a l e f a c i l i t y i n t o being. I recommend
t h a t work toward t h e l a r g e - s c a l e f l i g h t f a c i l i t y
remain l a r g e l y i n t h e s t u d y and p l a n n i n g s t a g e
f o r t h e t i m e being.
35
C o o r d i n a t i o n and R e p o r t i n q
A s i n d i c a t e d b y the p r e s e n t e a r l y p l a n n i n g , research
and a p p l i c a t i o n s of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a r e broad and
v a r i e d i n s c o p e , and have t h e i n t e r e s t of many a g e n c i e s .
Even a t t h i s s t a g e c o o r d i n a t i o n i s i m p e r a t i v e , and w i t h
t h e p a s s a g e of time c o o r d i n a t i o n w i l l become e v e r more
i m p o r t a n t t o sound p l a n n i n g and e f f e c t i v e e x e c u t i o n
of t h e program. I t i s c l e a r t l i a t r e s e a r c h and a p p l i c a -
t i o n s o f weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a r e c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o
m e t e o r o l o g i c a l s e r v i c e s and s u p p o r t i n g r e s e a r c h ; i n d e e d ,
i t would be an a r t i f i c i a l i t y t o a t t e m p t t o s e p a r a t e them.
Hence, I recommend t h a t t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r , who
a l r e a d y h a s r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r c o o r d i n a t i o n and r e p o r t i n g
i n t h i s a r e a of meteorology, undertake c o o r d i n a t i o n of t h e
Natj.ona1 Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n Program i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e
c o o r d i n a t i o n of n a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s i n meteorology;
I also f e e l t h a t t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r f o r
Meteorology should be a s s i g n e d t h e t a s k of p r e p a r i n g
and s u b m i t t i n g an a n n u a l r e p o r t on n a t i o n a l w e a t h e r
m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s . T h i s r e p o r t i n g assignment
i s a t p r e s e n t by law g i v e n t o t h e N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e
Foundation. I b e l i e v e t h a t i t i s d e s i r a b l e t o r e l i e v e
N S F of t h i s burden. For o n e t h i n g , t h e p r i n c i p a l
f u t u r e of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s i s d i r e c t e d
toward a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h and o p e r a t i o n s , which a r e n o t
and should n o t be i n t h e mainstream of N S F ' s r e s p o n s i -
b i l i t i e s f o r b a s i c research. Secondly, a s h a s a l r e a d y
been p o i n t e d o u t , weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h and
o p e r a t i o n s a r e i n e x t r i c a b l y interwoven w i t h meteoro-
l o g i c a l s e r v i c e and s u p p o r t i n g r e s e a r c h . Requiring t h e
F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r f o r Meteorology t o r e p o r t on t h e
n a t i o n a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n e f f o r t , t h e r e f o r e , a p p e a r s
t o be a n a t u r a l s t e p .
R e q u l a t i o n and C o n t r o l
A s b r o u g h t o u t c l e a r l y by t h e NSF S p e c i a l Commission
Reports ( R e f s . 2 and 3 ) , t h e s u b j e c t of r e g u l a t i o n and
c o n t r o l i n weather m o d i f i c a t i o n i s a complex and u r g e n t
one. I do n o t f e e l t h a t I can recommend a s p e c i f i c
o r g a n i z a t i o n t o be a s s i g n e d t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r
r e g u l a t i o n and c o n t r o l of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i -
ties. I do, however, have a few r e l a t e d recommendations.
I f e e l v e r y s t r o n g l y t h a t t h e r e g u l a t i n g body m u s t
n o t be one of t h e o p e r a t i n g a g e n c i e s p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n
t h e N a t i o n a l Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n Program. To assign
t h i s r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o one of t h e s e a g e n c i e s would
immediately g e n e r a t e c o n f l i c t s of i n t e r e s t , sow t h e
seeds of d i s s e n s i o n , and doom t h e e f f o r t s a t r e g u l a t i o n
and c o n t r o l t o e n d l e s s f r E s t r a t i o n .
37
I f e e l t h a t t h e r e g u l a t i n g body s h o u l d n o t be t h e
I n t e r d e p a r t m e n t a l C o m m i t t e e f o r Atmospheric Sciences
(ICAS). I n my view, t h e r e g u l a t i o n and c o n t r o l f u n c t i o n
w i l l be a f u l l - t i m e t a s k for a modest s t a f f of p e o p l e ,
p a r t i c u l a r l y , as t h e n a t i o n a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n e f f o r t
i n c r e a s e s and as a c t i v i t i e s become i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n scope.
I C A S i s i n no p o s i t i o n t o undertake such a f u l l - t i m e
assignment. Moreover, many of t h e c o n f l i c t - o f - i n t e r e s t
problems t h a t a r i s e i n t h e case of a s s i g n i n g t h e f u n c t i o n
t o one of t h e o p e r a t i n g a g e n c i e s would a l s o e x i s t i n
such an assignment t o ICAS.
were t h e O f f i c e of t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r f o r
Meteorology m o r e c l e a r l y s e p a r a t e from ESSA, and perhaps
even from the Department of Commerce, one might a s s i g n
t h i s t a s k t o t h e F e d e r a l Coordinator. I feel very
s t r o n g l y , however, t h a t the p r e s e n t r e l a t i o n s between
t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r I s o f f i c e and ESSA a r e s u f f i c i e n t l y
a m b i v a l e n t t o make t h e assignment of t h e r e g u l a t i o n
and c o n t r o l f u n c t i o n t o t h e F e d e r a l Coordinator a n
unwise s t e p .
I n t e r n a t i o n a l Implications
By a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1 9 7 2 , when l a r g e - s c a l e weather
m o d i f i c a t i o n experiments may w e l l be o p e r a t i o n a l , t h e y
may be e x p e c t e d t o have c o n s i d e r a b l e i n t e r n a t i o n a l
impact. T h i s impact w i l l be twofold:
t o e s t a b l i s h an i n t e r n a t i o n a l agency t o d e a l
w i t h weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , w h i l e w e l l i n t e n d e d ,
a r e l i k e l y t o be of dubious v a l u e and t o c r e a t e
r a t h e r t h a n r e s o l v e p o l i t i c a l problems--if t h e
e x p e r i e n c e i n n u c l e a r e n e r g y and s p a c e i s any
guide .
A more p r a c t i c a l and c o n s t r u c t i v e approach t o t h e
i n t e r n a t i o n a l problem--and one which s h o u l d pave
r a t h e r t h a n b l o c k t h e way f o r t h e n e c e s s a r y
experimentation--would be through b i l a t e r a l o r
m u l t i l a t e r a l arrangements. I n t h e s e , t h e U . S .
would s e e k t o e s t a b l i s h t h e mutual i n t e r e s t of
n e i g h b o r i n g c o u n t r i e s i n l a r g e - s c a l e experiments
and t o engage them w i t h u s i n such experiments.
I n t h i s way, w e c o u l d e d u c a t e a growing number
of c o u n t r i e s , e s t a b l i s h our good f a i t h , i n c r e a s e
t h e a c c e p t a b i l i t y of t h e program i n t h e e y e s
of t h i r d c o u n t r i e s , d e m o n s t r a t e v a l u e s
t r a n s c e n d i n g n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t s , and w i n
s u p p o r t where r e q u i r e d i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l forums
which may a d d r e s s themselves on a p o l i t i c a l
b a s i s t o t h e problems of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .
The o f f i c e f o r r e g u l a t i o n and c o n t r o l , d i s c u s s e d
i n t h e p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n , w i l l c e r t a i n l y have
t o bz involved. N a t i o n a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s w i l l
have t o be c l a r i f i e d and d e f i n e d . T h i s , however,
i s 6 s u b j e c t o u t s i d e t h e scope of my assignment.
Concludinq S t a t e m e n t
to the
NAS-NRC
MEMBERSHIP
RECOMMENDATIONS
APPENDIX I
1-1
PANEL ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATION
to the
Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, NAS-NRC
LIAISON MEMBERS
*Through 1964
1-2
PANEL ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATION
to the
Committee on Atmospheric Sciences
National Academy of Sciences - National Research Council
Re search Properties
1-3
a. A comprehensive exploration of hurricane
energetics, leading to the development of a
theoretical hurricane model and, subsequently, to
hypotheses for hurricane modification.
1-4
Major Research Facilities and Support Systems
Internal Aspects
1-5
SPECIAL COMMISSION ON WEATHER MODIFICATION
MEMBERSHIP
RECOMMENDAT IONS
APPENDIX I1
11-1
SPECIAL COMMISSION ON WEATHER MODIFICATION
National Science Foundation
11-2
SPECIAL COMMISSION ON WEATHER MODIFICATION
National Science Foundation
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
11-3
3. Advancement of weather p r e d i c t i o n a s a proof of
u n d e r s t a n d i n g , i n c l u d i n g s u p p o r t of t h i s e f f o r t by
t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a g l o b a l weather o b s e r v a t i o n
network .
4. Broadenins 0 - t h e knowledge of c l o u d p h y s i c s and
dynamics i n thc, l a b o r a t o r y and f i e l d , w i t h a t t e n t i o n
t o wave phenomena and an e v a l u a t i o n of e l e c t r i c a l
influences.
5. Study of t h e e f f e c t s of l a r g e s c a l e s u r f a c e
m o d i f i c a t i o n b y numerical and l a b o r a t o r y models of
t h e o c e a n i c and atmospheric g e n e r a l c i r c u l a t i o n ,
and of p r a c t i c a l means f o r s u r f a c e m o d i f i c a t i o n
of t h e l a n d and s e a .
6. Study of t h e r a d i a t i v e e f f e c t s of changes i n t h e
a t m o s p h e r i c composition and a l t e r a t i o n of i t s t r a n s -
parency t h a t urban growth and n e w forms of i n d u s t r y ,
t r a n s p o r t a t i o n or l a n d u s e may evoke.
B i o l o g i c a l Aspects of Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n
11-4
The largest weather modification debit item is likely
to spring from the decreased stability of communities,
which would manifest itself in an increase in pests,
weeds, and pathogens. The identity of the species in-
volved in these disruptions cannot be predicted, nor
can their cost.
11-5
Repeated o p e r a t i o n s on t h e s c a l e mentioned a r e l i k e l y ,
however, t o have f a r r e a c h i n g b i o l o g i c a l consequences
a s pointed o u t i n t h e p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n s , and some of
t h e b i o l o g i c a l changes would n o t be r e v e r s i b l e . This
a d v i s o r y group recommended t h a t r e p e a t e d and long t e r m
m o d i f i c a t i o n s of weather :lot be a t t e m p t e d w i t h o u t p r i o r
c a r e f u l and w e l l planned m o n i t o r i n g o r computer s i m u l a t i o n
s t u d i e s of t h e b i o l s g i c a l consequences of p a r t i c u l a r
kinds of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .
S t a t i s t i c a l Aspects of Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n
S t a t i s t i c a l t r a i n i n g f o r m e t e o r o l o g i s t s should be
promoted i n academic programs. I n t e l l e c t u a l interchange
between s c i e n t i s t s and s t a t i s t i c i a n s should b e c o n t i n u e d
through p e r i o d i c seminars.
S t a t i s t i c a l c o n s u l t a n t s should be made a v a i l a b l e t o
s c i e n t i s t s i n t h i s f i e l d through t’ie s u p p o r t of c o n f e r -
ences where n e w p r o j e c t s can be p r e s e n t e d , through u s e
of s t a t i s t i c i a n s a s e v a l u a t o r s of proposed work, and
through t h e s u p p o r t of t a s k f o r c e s and a d v i s o r y p a n e l s ,
w i t h s t a t i s t i c i a n members, f o r l a r g e p r o j e c t s . Statisti-
c i a n s should a i d i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n of p r o p o s a l s f o r
government-supported r e s e a r c h .
11-6
A program of carefully planned precipitation-oriented
field experiments should be carried out under complete
control of the scientists, embodying the required
technical knowledge, possessing continuity over a period
needed for conclusiveness, and on sufficient scale to
permit geographic conclusions, as well as statistical
stratification according to the type of seeding agent,
mode of injection, cloud type, etc.
11-7
Legal and L e g i s l a t i v e A s p e c t s
1. Delay o r h a l t a l l a c t i v i t i e s -- p u b l i c o r
p r i v a t e -- i n a c t u a l o r p o t e n t i a l c o n f l i c t w i t h
w e a t h e r and c l i m a t e m o d i f i c a t i o n programs of t h e
F e d e r a l g ~ v e r n m e n t ,whether c a r r i e d on by t h e
government i t s e l f or by i t s g r a n t e e s or c o n t r a c t o r s ;
I
2. Immunize F e d e r a l a g e n t s , g r a n t e e s , and con-
t r a c t o r s engaged i n weather and c l i m a t e m o d i f i -
c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s from S t a t e and l o c a l government
i n t e r f e r e n c e ; and
3. Provide t o F e d e r a l g r a n t e e s and c o n t r a c t o r s
indemnification o r other protection a g a i n s t
l i a b i l i t y t o t h e p u b l i c f o r damages caused by
F e d e r a l programs of weather and c l i m a t e modifi-
cation.
Weather Modification and International Relations
11-9
Funding and Administration Requirements
11-10
The degree of the Foundation's special attention to
this field, includinq ?he support of related research
in other affected dir:iplines, should be reviewed
from time to time ir: the light of the progress of
the overall national program. The Foundation needs
to continue the vigorous support of basic research
in the atmospheric sciences because fundamental
k:iowledge so derived is a necessary underpinning to
technological progress in weather and climate
mcdification.
Regulation
11-11
Earlier in this report there has been discussed the
nature of minimum regulatory action which may be
required on the part of the national Government to
assure the integrity of experiments conducted by
Federal agencies or their grantees and contractors.
It should be pointed out in this connection that
Federal agencies and their contractors and grantees
themselves will necessarily be subject to some of
the same types of regulation that apply to commercial
operations. A Federal agency field experiment in-
volving large-scale cloud seeding for example, can
cause the same interference with other scheduled
experiments as can cloud seeding conducted by a
commercial operator.
11-12
If the general vission of developing the technology
for climate modification is assigned to a single
agency, present overlap and lack of concerted effort
among the various agencies will be remedied to a
considerable extent. Due to the great importance
of the field, however, and because of the necessity
of maintaining an interdisciplinary and international
approach to weather activities, it is believed that
continuing attention must be forthcoming from the
Executive Office of the President. Consequently,
some mechanism concerned solely with weather and
climate modification, with emphasis on the develop-
ment and operational side, needs to be established
within the OST. The OST's concern should embrace
funding, basic research, applied research, develop-
ment, testing and evaluation. Such a mechanism could
take over from ICAS the weather and climate modifica-
tion components. ICAS could continue to be concerned
with atmospheric research.
d. An Advisory Committee
11-13
Report to the
Interdepartmental Committee on Atmospheric Sciences
----
PRESENT AND FUTURE PLANS
OF FEDERAL AGENCIES IN
W EATHER-CLIMATE MODIFICATION
APPENDIX 111
111-1
FOREWORD
Attention i s i n v i t e d t o t h e following p o i n t s of i n t e r e s t
i l l u s t r a t e d by t h e matrix presentation.
&&..A
/--c /.j 9 ~ (/ /*L + - - + 4-L-
Earl G. Droessler
Chairman, ICAS S e l e c t Panel
on Weather Modification .
June 20, 1966
111-2
Agency
NASA - 0.070 -
- 0.150 0.020
111-3
hJl3ATHER P D D I F I C A T I O N PROGRAM APPROACH --
1970
(millions
-I-'
d
ma,
5%
-Po
Agency m d
qa W
111-4
FACILITIES FOR WEATIER MIDIFICATION
1967
--
1970
n .
Agency
NSF 0.200 0.080 0.045 0.165 0.070 0.080 0.012 0.085 - 0.737
0.500 0.250 0.100 0.300 0.100 0.100 0.050 0.200 - 1.600
TOTAL 0.290 0.470 0.640 0.780 0.125 0.330 0.177 0.095 0.010 2.917
9.800 19.640 12.620 7.720 6.010 4.875 2.010 1.900 - 64.575
111-5
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
WEATHER MIDIFICATION PFUIGRAM FOR FY 1967
111-6
DEPARTMENT OF A G R I C U L m
WEATHER MIDIFICATION PROGRAM FOR FY 1970
111-7
I
111-8
ESSA'S PLANNED INEATHER M3DIFICATION RFSEARCH PROGRAM FOR FY 1967
111-9
ESSA’S P L m D hTATHER MIDIFICATION ElESEELRCH PROGRAM FOR FY 70
111-10
DEPARTIBNT OF DEFE;NSE WEATHER M3DIFICATION PRI)GRAM FOR FY 1967
WARM FOG
The problem of warm fog and stratus receives t h e major emphasis
i n t h e DOD weather modification program due t o i t s widespread
occurrence and i t s adverse e f f e c t on so many m i l i t a r y operations.
SEVERE STORM I B D I F I C A T I O N
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
COLD FOG
111-11
2
111-12
BUREAU OF RECLAMATION WEATHER M3DIFICATION PROGFUM FOR FY 1967
.
t o continue t h e development and refinement of telemetering p r e c i p i t a t i o n
gages
111-13
BUREAU OF RECLAMATION WEATHER MIDIFICATION PROGRAM FOR FY 1970
111-14
NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION WEATHER MIDIFICATION
PROGRAM FOR FY 1967
111-15
2
111- 16
NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION WEATHER MIDIFICATION PROGRAM
FOR FY 1970
I n FY 1970, it i s a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t many of t h e s m a l l u n i v e r s i t y
research groups w i l l f i n d it advantageous t o combine t h e i r e f f o r t s
i n t o l a r g e r research teams i n order t o approach t h e study of t h e
atmosphere i n s i t u r a t h e r than i n t h e laboratory. This w i l l require
increased c a p a b i l i t y f o r mobility i n f i e l d operations i n order t o
achieve t h e i r research goals. This may well be provided by a t t a c h i n g
research teams t o e x i s t i n g f i e l d weather modification operational
p r o j e c t s a l r e a d y i n existence, o r by a povling of a i r c r a f t , vehicle,
r a d a r and ground network equipment by a number of u n i v e r s i t y groups.
It i s a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t t h e r e w i l l be a few large-scale f a c i l i t i e s
funded f o r t h e t e s t i n g o f modification schemes. Typical schemes
might be t h e suspension of a spray nozzle over a v a l l e y between
two mountain peaks t o produce cloud-sized d r o p l e t s i n t o which
e l e c t r i c a l charges can be introduced i n e i t h e r p o l a r i t y , contamban%s,
can be introduced, and t h e drop s i z e spectrum can be adjustec! t o
any reasonable d i s t r i b u t i o n . Under NSF sponsorship, a l a r g e a i r c r a f t
or blimp hanger may a l s o be converted i n t o a fog chamber f o r t e s t i n g
w a r n fog d i s s i p a t i o n techniques.
111-17
2
111-19
NATIONAL AERONAUTICS & SPACE ADMINISTRATION
WEATHER MIDIFICATION PROGRAM FOR FY 1970
111-20
FEDERAL AVIATION AGENCY WEATHER MIDIFICATION PROGRAM FOR FY 1967
IV-1
APPENDIX IV
2
IV-2
NASA PANEL TO STUDY WEATHER MODIFICATION A C T I V I T I E S
MEMBERSHIP
CHRONOLOGY OF MEETINGS
COMPILATION O F SUPPORTING
MATERIAL USED BY THE PANEL
APPENDIX V
V-l
PANEL TO STUDY WEATHER MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES
Membership
v-2
PANEL TO STUDY WEATHER MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES
Chaired b y H o m e r E . N e w e l l
A s s o c i a t e A d m i n i s t r a t o r f o r Space S c i e n c e & A p p l i c a t i o n s
NASA Headquarters
Chronology of Meetings
1 J u l y 1966, NASA H q s
P a n e l b r i e f i n g by D r . E a r l Droessler
V-3
9 September 1966, OST
Report t o Hornig, OST
v-4
Panel to Study Weather Modification Activities
Chaired by H. E. Newell
OVERALL
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
V-5
8. U. of Agriculture Forest Service A SUMMARY OF
S . Dept.
PROJECT SKYFIRE dated September 1, 1966, transmitted by
letter to Crocker from J. S. Barrows, Director, Forest
Fire Research, dated September 6 , 1966
DEPARTMENT OF INTERIOR
10. Presentation to ICAS on May 13, 1966, PLANS FOR THE DEPART-
MENT OF THE INTERIOR'S ATMOSPHERIC WATER RESOURCES PROGRAM
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
V-6
16. Presentation by the Deputy Federal Coordinator
for Meteorological Services & Supporting Research
(Moore)
v-7
25. Fourth Annual Report, 1962, National Science Foundation,
WEATHER MODIFICATION, NSF 63-29
V-8
BUDGET RECOMMENDATIONS AND TRENDS
for a
APPENDIX VI
VI-1
NO1I V a N n O d 33N313S 1VNOII V N
N0I 1VaNno4
33N313S W N O I I V N
1
33N3DS lVlN1WNOt1IAN3
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0 \
VI-2
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Z
0
I-
6
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m
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4
m
W
-
V
2
W
m
W
V
Z
w
\ 2
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\
\ 5
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0
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>
Z
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VI-3