CHAPTER 6 SECTION 4-5: PROBABILITY

MULTIPLE CHOICE

188. A posterior probability value is a prior probability value that has been:
a. modified on the basis of new information.
b. multiplied by a conditional probability value.
c. divided by a conditional probability value.
d. added to a conditional probability value.
ANS: A PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

189. Which of the following statements is false?

a. Thomas Bayes first employed the calculation of conditional probability in the eighteenth
century.
b. There is no formula defining Bayes' Law.
c. We use a probability tree to conduct all necessary calculations for Bayes' Law.
d. None of these choices.
ANS: B PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

190. Which of the following statements is false regarding a scenario using Bayes' Law?
a. Prior probabilities are called likelihood probabilities.
b. Conditional probabilities are called posterior probabilities.
c. Posterior probabilities are calculated by using prior probabilities that have been modified
based on new information.
d. None of these choices.
ANS: A PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

191. Bayes' Law is used to compute:

a. prior probabilities.
b. joint probabilities.
c. union probabilities.
d. posterior probabilities.
ANS: D PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

192. Initial estimates of the probabilities of events are known as:

a. joint probabilities
b. posterior probabilities
c. prior probabilities
d. conditional probabilities
ANS: C PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

TRUE/FALSE

193. Bayes' Law allows us to compute conditional probabilities from other forms of probability.

ANS: T PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

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copied, or distributed without the prior consent of the publisher.
194. Although there is a formula defining Bayes' law, you can also use a probability tree to conduct
calculations.

ANS: T PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

195. Conditional probabilities are also called likelihood probabilities.

ANS: T PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

196. In applying Bayes' Law, as the prior probabilities increase, the posterior probabilities decrease.

ANS: F PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

197. Bayes' Law is a formula for revising an initial subjective (prior) probability value on the basis of new
results, thus obtaining a new (posterior) probability value.

ANS: T PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

198. Prior probability of an event is the probability of the event before any information affecting it is given.

ANS: T PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

199. Prior probability is also called likelihood probability.

ANS: F PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

200. Posterior probability of an event is the revised probability of the event after new information is
available.

ANS: T PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

201. In general, a posterior probability is calculated by adding the prior and likelihood probabilities.

ANS: F PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

202. Bayes' Law says that P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A).

ANS: F PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

203. In problems where the joint probabilities are given, we can compute marginal probabilities by adding
across rows and down columns.

ANS: T PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

204. We can use the joint and marginal probabilities to compute conditional probabilities, for which a
formula is available.

ANS: T PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

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copied, or distributed without the prior consent of the publisher.
205. If joint, marginal, and conditional probabilities are available, only joint probabilities can be used to
determine whether two events are dependent or independent.

ANS: F PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

206. Suppose we have two events A and B. We can apply the addition rule to compute the probability that at
least one of these events occurs.

ANS: T PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

207. We can apply the multiplication rule to compute the probability that two events occur at the same time.

ANS: T PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

208. Posterior probabilities can be calculated using the addition rule for mutually exclusive events.

ANS: F PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

209. Bayes' Law can be used to calculate posterior probabilities, prior probabilities, as well as new
conditional probabilities.

ANS: F PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

210. Prior probabilities can be calculated using the multiplication rule for mutually exclusive events.

ANS: F PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

COMPLETION

211. Thomas ____________________ first employed the calculation of conditional probability.

ANS: Bayes

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

212. Bayes' Law involves three different types of probabilities: 1) prior probabilities; 2) likelihood
probabilities; and 3) ____________________ probabilities.

ANS: posterior

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

213. Bayes' Law involves three different types of probabilities: 1) ____________________ probabilities; 2)
likelihood probabilities; and 3) posterior probabilities.

ANS: prior

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

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copied, or distributed without the prior consent of the publisher.
214. Bayes' Law involves three different types of probabilities: 1) prior probabilities;
2) ____________________ probabilities; and 3) posterior probabilities.

ANS: likelihood

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

215. There are situations where we witness a particular event and we need to compute the probability of one
of its possible causes. ____________________ is the technique we use to do this.

ANS:
Bayes' Law
Bayes Law
Baye's Law

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

216. In the scenario of Bayes' Law, P(A|B) is a(n) ____________________ probability, while P(B|A) is a
posterior probability.

ANS: likelihood

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

217. In the scenario of Bayes' Law, P(A|B) is a posterior probability, while P(B|A) is a(n)
____________________ probability.

ANS: likelihood

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

218. ____________________ can find the probability that someone with a disease tests positive by using
(among other things) the probability that someone who actually has the disease tests positive for it.

ANS:
Bayes' Law
Bayes Law
Baye's Law

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

SHORT ANSWER

Admissions Test

A standard admissions test was given at three locations. One thousand students took the test at location
A, 600 students at location B, and 400 students at location C. The percentages of students from
locations A, B, and C who passed the test were 70%, 68%, and 77%, respectively. One student is
selected at random from among those who took the test.

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copied, or distributed without the prior consent of the publisher.
219. {Admissions Test Narrative} What is the probability that the selected student passed the test?

ANS:
(.5)(.7) + (.3)(.68) + (.2)(.77) = 0.708

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

220. {Admissions Test Narrative} If the selected student passed the test, what is the probability that the
student took the test at location B?

ANS:
(.3)(.68) / .708 = 0.288

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

221. {Admissions Test Narrative} What is the probability that the selected student took the test at location
C and failed?

ANS:
(.2)(.23) = 0.046

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

Tumors

After researching tumors of a particular type, a doctor learns that out of 10,000 such tumors examined,
1,500 are malignant and 8,500 are benign. A diagnostic test is available which is accurate 80% of the
time (whether the tumor is malignant or not). The doctor has discovered the same type of tumor in a
patient.

222. {Tumors Narrative} In the absence of any test, what is the probability that the tumor is malignant?

ANS:
M = Malignant, P(M) = .15

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

223. {Tumors Narrative} In the absence of any test, what is the probability that the tumor is benign?

ANS:
B = Benign, P(B) = .85

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

224. {Tumors Narrative} What is the probability that the patient will test positive?

ANS:
P(+) = P(+ and M) + P(+ and B) = P(+/M) · P(M) + P(+/B) · P(B)
= (.80)(.15) + (.20)(.85) = .29

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

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copied, or distributed without the prior consent of the publisher.
225. {Tumors Narrative} What is the probability that the patient will test negative?

ANS:
P() = 1  P(+) = 1  .29 = .71 or
P() = P( and M) + P( and B) = P(/M) · P(M) + P(/B) · P(B)
= (.20)(.15) + (.80)(.85) = .71

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

226. {Tumors Narrative} What is the probability that the patient has a benign tumor if he or she tests
positive?

ANS:
P(B/+) = P(+ and B) / P(+) = P(+/B) · P(B) / P(+) = (.20)(.85) / (.29) = .586

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

227. {Tumors Narrative} What is the probability that the patient has a malignant tumor if he or she tests
negative?

ANS:
P(M/) = P( and M) / P() = P(/M) · P(M) / P() = (.20)(.15) / (.71) = .042

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

Airlines

Three airlines serve a small town in Indiana. Airline A has 60% of all the scheduled flights, airline B
has 30%, and airline C has the remaining 10%. Their on-time rates are 80%, 60%, and 40%
respectively. Define event O as an airline arrives on time.

228. {Airlines Narrative} Calculate P(A and O).

ANS:
P(A and O) = P(A)P(O|A) = (.60)(.80) = 0.48

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

229. {Airlines Narrative} Calculate P(B and O).

ANS:
P(B and O) = P(B) P(O|B) = (.30)(.60) = 0.18

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

230. {Airlines Narrative} Calculate P(C and O).

ANS:
P(C and O) = P(C)P(O |C) = (.10)(.40) = 0.04

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

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copied, or distributed without the prior consent of the publisher.
231. {Airlines Narrative} Calculate the probability that a plane leaves on time.

ANS:
P(O) = P(A and O) + P(B and O) + P(C and O) = .48 + .18 + .04 = 0.70

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

232. {Airlines Narrative} If a plane has just left on time, what is the probability that it was airline A?

ANS:
P(A|O) = P(A and O) / P(O) = 0.48 / 0.70 = 0.686

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

233. {Airlines Narrative} If a plane has just left on time, what is the probability that it was airline B?

ANS:
P(B|O) = P(B and O) / P(O) = 0.18 / 0.70 = 0.257

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

234. {Airlines Narrative} If a plane has just left on time, what is the probability that it was airline C?

ANS:
P(C|O) = P(C and O) / P(O) = 0.04 / 0.70 = 0.057

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

235. {Airlines Narrative} If a plane has just left 40 minutes late, what is the probability that it was airline
A?

ANS:
P(A|Oc) = P(A and Oc) / P(Oc) = (0.60)(0.20) / 0.30 = 0.40

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

236. {Airlines Narrative} If a plane has just left 40 minutes late, what is the probability that it was airline
B?

ANS:
P(B|Oc) = P(B and Oc) / P(Oc) = (0.30)(0.40) / 0.30 = 0.40

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

237. {Airlines Narrative} If a plane has just left 40 minutes late, what is the probability that it was airline
C?

ANS:
P(C|Oc) = P(C and Oc) / P(Oc) = (0.10)(0.60) / 0.30 = 0.20

PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 6.4-6.5

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copied, or distributed without the prior consent of the publisher.