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Risk Continued:
Bayes’Theorem and
Posterior Probabilities
MGS3100 - Chapter 8
Slides 8c
Bayesian Methods
There is a continuing debate among statisticians, little
known to those outside the field, over the proper
definition of probability. The frequentist definition
sees probability as the long-run expected frequency of
occurrence. P(A) = n/N, where n is the number of
times event A occurs in N opportunities. The Bayesian
view of probability is related to degree of belief. It is a
measure of the plausibility of an event given
incomplete knowledge.
The Market Research Question
P(Red/Urn1) = 8/10 = 0.8
8 Red
(Known Population)
2 White
Have P(A/B)
Urn 1
Prior Posterior
New data
probabilities probabilities
How Bayes' Theorem Works
Let the experiment be A and the prediction be B. Let’s
assume that both have occurred. The probability of both
A and B together is P(A∩B), or simply P(AB). The law
of conditional probability says that this probability can be
found as the product of the conditional probability of one,
given the other, times the probability of the other. That is:
P(A|B) * P(B) = P(AB) = P(B|A) * P(A)
Simple algebra shows that:
P(B|A) = P(A|B) * P(B) / P(A)
This is Bayes' Theorem.
Example Problem:
Thompson Lumber Company
Thompson Lumber Company is trying to decide
whether to expand its product line by
manufacturing and marketing a new product
which is “backyard storage sheds.”
The courses of action that may be chosen
include:
(1) large plant to manufacture storage sheds,
(2) small plant to manufacture storage sheds, or
(3) build no plant at all.
Thompson Lumber Company