Supplement

to
“Risk Assessment” 2.ed., 2020

Stein Haugen Marvin Rausand

Version 1.0
Contents

Preface 3

1 Introduction 4

2 The Words of Risk Analysis 10

3 Main Elements of Risk Assessment 12

4 Study Object and Limitations 13

5 Risk Acceptance 15

6 Measuring Risk 16

7 Risk Management 17

8 Accident Models 18

9 Data for Risk Analysis 20

10 Hazard Identification 24

11 Causal and Frequency Analysis 26

12 Development of Accident Scenarios 28

13 Dependent Failures and Events 29

14 Barriers and Barrier Analysis 30

15 Human Reliability Assessment 31

16 Risk Analysis and Management for Operation 32

1
17 Security Assessment 33

18 Life Cycle Use of Risk Analysis 35

19 Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis 36

20 Development and Applications of Risk Assessment 37

A Elements of Probability Theory 40

2
Preface

Many concepts and topics are presented in the book, but it is mainly the au-
thors’ views that are highlighted. To get a broader view, we recommend you to
consult additional sources of information. Our objective in this supplement is to
point out some sources where you can start this process – and also to give some
guidance related to the various topics. The references suggested do not always
support our view of risk assessment. You are encouraged to compare and make
your own judgments. We have suggested a set of additional sources, but we do
not claim that these are the “best” sources to be found.
The note is far from complete and will be extended when our time schedule
is not so stressed. Ideas for additional material is always welcome and may be
sent by email to Stein Haugen.
This note lists all the chapters of the book and we have tried to place the
material in chapters that are relevant. Observe that the section structure of this
note does not follow the structure in the book.
This file includes many links to Internet resources. If a link is broken, please
send an email to Stein Haugen. In most cases, you may find the correct file by
searching the Internet.

3
Chapter 1

Introduction

Organizations Issuing Standards

Several organizations issue standards and guidelines that are relevant for system
reliability analysis. A brief list is supplied in this section. Information about
standards and guidelines may be found on the organizations’ homepages.

ISO - International Organization for Standardization

IEC - International Electrotechnical Commission

IEEE - Institute of Electronic and Electrical Engineers

SAE - Engineering Society for Advancing Mobility in Land, Sea, Air, and
Space

CEN - European Committee for Standardization

CENELEC - European Committee for Electrotechnical Standardization

ETSI - European Telecommunication Standards Institute

ANSI - American National Standards Institute

ASME - American Society of Mechanical Engineers

API - American Petroleum Institute

NORSOK - Standards available from Standard Norge

Standard Norge - Standards Norway

BSI - British Standards

4
 AFNOR - French Standards

DIN - German Standards

Standards Australia

NERC - North America Electric Reliability Council

NUREG - U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

In the European Union (EU), the main standards are issued by CEN and CEN-
ELEC and are called EN-standards. The member countries normally accept these
standards and add a national “symbol” in front of EN, such as DIN-EN in Ger-
many. The national standards organizations, such as DIN and AFNOR also issue
standards in addition to the EN standards.

Relevant Scientific Journals

The title of the journals are listed. The homepages of the various journals may be
found by searching the Internet. The journals are listed in an alphabetic order.
Please send us a note if a journal is discontinued or you feel that a journal is
missing.
• Accident Analysis and Prevention

• Chemical Health and Safety

• Fire Safety Journal

• Human Factors

• Human Factors in Aerospace and Safety

• International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management

• International Journal of Nuclear Safety and Security

• International Journal of Reliability and Safety

• International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering

• International Nuclear Safety Journal

• International Journal of Risk Assessment & Management

• Journal of Hazardous Materials

5
 • Journal of Risk and Governance

• Journal of Risk and Reliability

• Journal of Risk and Uncertainty

• Journal of Risk Research

• Journal of Safety Research

• Journal of System Safety

• Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries

• Natural Hazards

• Nuclear Safety

• Open Journal of Safety Science and Technology

• Process Safety and Environmental Protection

• Process Safety Progress

• Reliability Engineering and System Safety

• Risk Analysis

• Risk, Decision, and Policy

• Risk Management

• Safety Science

• Structural Safety

• . . . and many more.

Relevant Conferences
A large number of safety, or risk, conferences are arranged every year. We have
listed some of these conferences, but the list is far from complete. The confer-
ences are listed alphabetically and the list does not indicate any priority.
• Center for Chemical Process Safety conferences

• European Process Safety Centre conferences

6
 • European Safety and Reliability Conference – ESREL

• International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and

Safety Engineering (QR2MSE)

• Issat International Conference

• International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE)

• International Conference on Information Systems Security and Privacy –

ICISSP

• International Conference on Complexity, Future Information Systems, and

Risk

• Maritime Safety International Conference (MASTIC)

• Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management – PSAM

• Society of Petroleum Engineers Health, Safety, Environment and Sustain-

ability conferences

• Society of Risk Analysis conferences

There are numerous other conferences where health and safety, including risk
assessment, is one of many topics.

Relevant Societies
A large number of societies/associations are available for people working with
safety and/or risk problems. You may find a lot of valuable information on their
web pages. The following list is very incomplete.
• “American Chemical Society” (Chemical Safety)

• “American Society of Safety Professionals” (ASSP)

• “Center for Chemical Process Safety”

• “European Process Safety Centre”

• “European Safety and Reliability Association” (ESRA)

• “International System Safety Society”

• “Risk Management Society” (RIMS)

7
 • “Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents” (RoSPA)

• Safety and Reliability Society (SaRS) - UK

• Security Industry Association (SIA)

• “Society for Risk Analysis” (SRA)

• Society of Risk Analysis - Europe

Universities Offering Study Programs in Risk Assess-

ment and Management
Many universities offer education programs in risk assessment. Some few of
these are:

• NTNU, Trondheim (Norway):

• University of Stavanger (Norway): Risk Management

• King’s College London (UK) Risk Analysis MSC

• Leibniz University, Hannover (Germany): Institute for Risk and Reliability

• Herriot Watt University, Edinburgh (Great Britain): Safety and Risk Man-
agement

• University of Maryland (USA): Center for Risk and Reliability

• UCLA Samueli (USA): B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

Software Providers for Risk Assessment

There is a multitude of software programs for risk assessment. Some of the main
suppliers of such programs include:

• ALD Services

• BayesFusion

• DNV GL

• evision software

8
 • “‘HUGIN”

• Item Software

• Quanterion Solutions Inc.

• Quentic

• ReliaSoft

• Reliass

• Relyence

• SCRAM

Important Accidents
This section lists some important accidents that have happened after we submit-
ted the manuscript (mid 2019).

2020
• 8th of January: The Ukrainian Airline Flight 752 from Tehran to Kiev (Kyiv)
– a three years old Boeing 737-800 – with 176 persons on board was shot
down by a missile just after take-off from Tehran airport, Iran. All passen-
gers and staff were killed in the accident. The missile was launched by the
Iranian Air Defence. The Iranian authorities admitted having shot down
the plane, but claimed that it was due to an unintentional human error.
It is reason to believe this claim because an event of this type would – of
necessity – have only negative consequences for Iran.

2019
• November: Fire at petrochemical terminal in Deer Park southeast of Hous-
ton, TX. The terminal had a storage of 13.1 million barrels. No injuries, but
significant pollution. The terminal was owned by Intercontinental Termi-
nals Company (ITC). Much more information on the Internet.

• October: Cyber attack on Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant in India. The

malware was identified as DTrack and has earlier been used in cyber at-
tacks against financial bodies.

9
Chapter 2

The Words of Risk Analysis

Terminology
A number of glossaries related to safety and risk are available. The following
may be useful:

• The Society for Risk Analysis provides a Risk Analysis Glossary that is
freely available.

• IEC 60050 / Electropedia is a main, free terminology standard with many

terms that are relevant for risk assessment.

• CCPS Process Safety Glossary

• ISO Browsing Platform makes it possible to search for terms in all ISO
standards.

• The IADC Lexicon is made for the oil and gas industry, but contains many
terms that are relevant for other applications.

• The safety glossary of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is

available here.

• ISO has also published a terminology guide with definitions of vocabulary

related to risk management, ISO Guide 73

Additional Reading
A good, comprehensive, and free introduction to Bayesian probability and Bayesian
methods is:

10
 • Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis. (Dez-
fuli et al., 2009)

The report may be downloaded from NASA.

Another View
The authors found the following reference to be of great interest:

• David Garland: “The rise of risk”

11
Chapter 3

Main Elements of Risk Assessment

Additional Reading
• What is Risk Assessment?

• “All Hazards Risk Assessment; Methodology Guidelines”, Public Safety

Canada.

• NASA: “Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Man-

agers and Practitioners”.

• BSEE: “Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for Offshore Ap-

plications”.

• ABS: Guidenace notes on risk assessment applications for the marine and
offshore oil and gas industries

12
Chapter 4

Study Object and Limitations

Systems
• OHS Body of Knowledge: Systems

• NASA: Systems Engineering Handbook

• Mitre: Systems Engineering Guide

The two last references contain much more information than what is required at
this stage of this chapter of the book.

Functional Analysis
• SADT – Structured Analysis & Design Technique (Presentation by Yuling
Li)

• For more information about IDEF, you may start by reading the Wikipedia
entry and the references therein.

• Functional Analysis Module (Presentation by NASA)

Complexity
• Ladyman, J. and Lambert, J. (2012): “What is a Complex System?”

• Collins, R. J. and Thompson, R.: “Systemic Failure Modes: A Model for

Perrow’s Normal Accidents in Complex, Safety Critical Systems”

13
• Heylighen, F., Cilliers, P. and Gershenson, C.: “Complexity and Philoso-
phy”

14
Chapter 5

Risk Acceptance

Additional Reading
• The Tolerability of Risk from Nuclear Power Stations, HSE (1992) is a funda-
mental report in this area and should be studied by all people interested in
risk acceptance and risk tolerability. The report can be downloaded from
the UK Office of Nuclear Regulation.

• DNV GL: “Risk Acceptance Criteria and Risk Based Damage Stability. Final
Report, part 1: Risk Acceptance Criteria”

• HSE: “Societal Risk: Initial briefing to Societal Risk Technical Advisory

Group”

• Risk Criteria for Land Use Safety Planning (Australia)

• HSE UK: “Reducing risks, protecting people - R2P2”

• Fischhoff, B., Lichtenstein, S., and Keeney, R.L. (1981) “Acceptable Risk”,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

15
Chapter 6

Measuring Risk

Additional Reading
• Jonkman, B., van Gelder, P. and Vrijling, H. (2002): “An overview of quan-
titative risk measures and their application for calculation of flood risk”

• HSE-RR703 (2009): “Societal Risk: Initial briefing to Societal Risk Technical

Advisory Group”

• The Health of Nations: The Value of a Statistical Life (Australia)

16
Chapter 7

Risk Management

Additional reading
• Guide to Integrated Risk Management (Canada)

• NASA Risk Management Handbook

• Risk Management Guide for DoD Acquisition

• Risk Management Fundamentals

• An introduction to the IRGC Risk Governance Framework

• Rasmussen, Jens and Svedung, Inge: “Proactive Risk Management in a Dy-

namic Society”

• Downer, John: “Anatomy of a Disaster: Why Some Accidents are Unavoid-

able

• The Orange Book: Management of Risk – Principles and Concepts

17
Chapter 8

Accident Models

We have split the recommendations for further reading into two overlapping
sections. For several of the references, it may be difficult to judge which section
they belong to.

Accident Models
• Qureshi, Z. H. (2008): A review of accident modelling approaches for com-
plex critical sociotechnical systems, Defence Science and Technology Or-
ganisation, Australia.

• Rasmussen, J. and Svedung, I. (2000): Proactive Risk Management in a Dy-

namic Society, Swedish Rescue Services Agency, Karlstad, Sweden.

• Peper: “Systems Thinking Applied to Automation and Workplace Safety”

• Leveson, Nancy: “A new accident model for engineering safer systems”

• Waterson et al.: “ ‘Remixing Rasmussen’: The Evolution of Accimaps within

Systemic Accident Analysis”

• Hopkins, Andrew: “An AcciMap of the Esso Australia Gas Plant Explosion”

Accident Investigation
• OSH Wiki: “Accident investigation techniques”

• HSE: “Investigating accidents and incidents”

• Six steps for successful incident investigation

18
• Sklet, Snorre: “Methods for accident investigation”

• Sklet, Snorre: “Comparison of some selected methods for accident investi-

gation”

• Wienen et. al: “Accident Analysis Methods and Models – a Systematic

Literature Review”

• DOE-HDBK-1208 (I): “Accident and Operational Safety Analysis, Volume

I, Accident Analysis Techniques”

• Hollnagel, Erik and Speziali, Josephine: “Study on Developments in Acci-

dent Investigation Methods: A Survey of the ‘State-of-the-Art’ ”

• “Guidance notes on the investigation of marine incidents”

19
Chapter 9

Data for Risk Analysis

Accident Databases
A range of databases and data sources provide brief descriptions and character-
istics of accidents and incidents that have occurred.

• eMARS - Major Accident Reporting System (This database is maintained

by the Major Accident Hazards Bureau (MAHB) and is related to the EU
Seveso II directive on major accidents involving highly hazardous sub-
stances)

• FACTS - Failure and Accident Technical Information System (This database

is operated by Unified Industrial & Harbour Fire Department in Rotterdam-
Rozenburg)

• ARIA - Analyse, Recherche et Informations sur les Accidents (is operated

by by BARPI, a part of Ministère de l’Aménagement du Territoire et de
l’Environnement MATE)

• PSID - Process Safety Incident Database (is operated by the Center for Chem-
ical Process Safety CCPS)

• NEDIES - Natural and Environmental Disaster Information Exchange System

(is operated by the Joint Research Centre, Natural Risk Sector)

• ECCAIRS - European Co-ordination Centre for Aviation Incident Reporting

Systems.

• Aviation accident database & synopses (is operated by the National Trans-
portation Safety Board, USA)

20
 • IRTAD - International Road Traffic and Accident Database (OECD)

• WOAD - World Offshore Accident Database (is operated by Det Norske Ver-
itas DNV)

• Accident statistics for fixed offshore units on the UK Continental Shelf (UK
HSE report)

• Accident statistics for mobile offshore units on the UK Continental Shelf (UK
HSE report)

• Ship/Platform Collision Incident Database (UK HSE report)

• AirSafe.com

• PlaneCrashInfo

• Danger Ahead - Historic Railway Disasters

• BBC Disaster News

Failure Categories
Complicated items often have a high number of functions and thereby an even
higher number of potential failure modes. Many of the potential failure modes
were identified as part of the FMECAs performed during item design and devel-
opment and may relate to many different applications. It is obvious that poten-
tial failure modes that are relevant to operational availability, warranty, life cycle
cost, etc., may not at all be relevant in a risk analysis.
In a risk assessment, reliability data (e.g., failure rate estimates) are mainly
used to determine the probability or frequency of the initiating event (and other
events) and the reliability of the various safety barriers. As discussed in Chap-
ter14, barrier failures are often classified as:

• Dangerous (D) or safe (S)

• Detected (D) or undetected (U)

A specific failure can therefore be an DU, DD, SU, or an SD failure. These four
categories of failures may be briefly explained as follows:

DU failure. A failure is dangerous and undetected (DU) when it prevents the

barrier from performing its safety function and at the same time occurs

21
 without being detected. The last requirements means that the barrier fail-
ure remains undetected until the barrier is tested/inspected or demanded
in a critical situation. When a barrier is tested annually and a DU failure is
revealed in the test, this means that the barrier may have been unavailable
as a safety barrier for up to a year. A DU failure is the most critical failure
of a barrier in a risk analysis.
DD failure. A failure is dangerous and detected (DD) when it prevents the bar-
rier from performing its safety function, but is detected almost immedi-
ately. This means that precautions may be taken (e.g., the process may be
stopped or operating personnel may be posted to perform the function of
the barrier). The DD failure usually needs to be repaired and the repair
action may be dangerous both for the maintenance crew and for the study
object. The repair may sometimes be performed on-line, by inhibiting the
failed item – which may result in a higher risk during the repair action. In
other cases, the study object may be stopped during the repair.
SU failure. A safe and undetected failure does not directly cause any problems
for the safety function of the barrier and this failure will remain undetected
until the item is inspected or tested. An SU failure may lead to increased
risk during the repair action.
SD failure. A safe and detected failure does not directly influence the safety
function of the barrier. Depending on the operational criticality of the
DD failure, a repair action may be immediate or delayed. In any case, the
increased risk during the repair action needs to be considered.
The formulas developed in IEC 61508 and in Rausand (2014) are based on these
four failure categories.

A Caveat
The failure modes found in datasources (e.g., OREDA, 2015) do not at all comply
with this failure classification and it may often be difficult to transfer the data
found in the datasources to your specific risk assessment application. When us-
ing such data, you should consult technical specialists to verify that the estimates
you are using in the analysis are realistic and relevant.

Additional reading
• NUREG/CR-6823 (2002): Handbook of parameter estimation for probabilis-
tic risk assessment

22
• IAEA-TECHDOC-1048 (1998): Collection and classification of human reli-
ability data for use in probabilistic safety assessments

23
Chapter 10

Hazard Identification

Safe Job Analysis

• Norwegian Oil and Gas: Recommended guidelines on a common model for
safe job analysis (SJA)

• Job Safety Analysis (CCOHS-Canada)

• Job Hazard Analysis (OSHA-U.S.)

FMECA
• Ford: FMEA Handbook

• STUK: Failure mode and effects analysis of software-based automation sys-

tems.

• TM 5-698-4: Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) for

Command, Control, Communications, Computer, Intelligence, Surveillance,
and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) Facilities

Functional Hazard Analysis

• Functional Hazard Analysis (FHA) Methodology Tutorial

HAZOP
• PrimaTech: HAZOP

24
 • What is HAZOP?

SWIFT
• Swift toolkit

STPA
• Nancy Leveson has a website that contains a lot of information about STPA
- information can be found here.

• Peper: “Systems Thinking Applied to Automation and Workplace Safety”

25
Chapter 11

Causal and Frequency Analysis

Fault Tree Analysis

One of the most comprehensive handbooks on fault tree analysis is:
• Fault Tree Handbook with Aerospace Applications, (NASA, 2002)
The handbook can be downloaded from the NASA

Computer Programs for FTA

• A large number of commercial FTA programs are available. You may check
the list of software providers in Chapter 1 (in this note) to find relevant
programs.

• A list of free FTA programs may be found here.

• FaultTree on R. – The R package is available here. The authors do not have

much experience with this package, but you should give it a try - at least
if you know how to use R.

Bayesian Networks
• Bayesian networks - an introduction

• Murphy: A Brief Introduction to Graphical Models and Bayesian Networks

• Heckerman: A Tutorial on Learning With Bayesian Networks

• Bayesian Networks as a Decision Support Tool in Marine Applications

(PhD thesis by Andreas Friis-Hansen, Technical University oif Denmark)

26
Markov Methods
• Brown: Markov Models and Reliability

27
Chapter 12

Development of Accident Scenarios

Event Tree Analysis

• Event Trees

28
Chapter 13

Dependent Failures and Events

Common-Cause Failures
• NUREG/CR-5485: “Guidelines on Modeling Common-Cause Failures in
Probabilistic Risk Assessment”

• SINTEF (2015): “Common Cause Failures in Safety Instrumented Systems”

• CCF Parameter Estimations 2015

• Common cause failure modelling in UK PSAs

29
Chapter 14

Barriers and Barrier Analysis

Barriers With Negative Side-effects

Barriers that have been installed to protect against a certain type of hazard may
sometimes have negative side effects. An example of this was demonstrated by
the Germanwings Flight 9525 accident on 24 March 2015, killing all the 150 per-
sons onboard the Airus A320-211 on the flight between Barcelona, Spain and
Düsseldorf, Germany. To prevent potential hijackers to enter the cockpit during
a flight the doors to the cockpit were locked according to the rules (hence mak-
ing a physical barrier between the passenger area and the cockpit). The accident
investigation, the crash was cause deliberately by the co-pilot, who earlier had
been treated for suicidal tendencies and declared “unfit to work” by his doctor.
When the pilot had to visit the toilet, the co-pilot locked the door (from the in-
side) and calmly brought the plane to the ground in the Massif des Trois-Évêchés
in France. You will find many more details about this accident by searching the
Internet.

Additional Reading
• U.S. DoE: “Hazard and Barrier Analysis Guidance Document”

• PSA Norway: “Principles for barrier management in the petroleum indus-

try”

• SINTEF: “Guidance for barrier management in the petroleum industry”

• SINTEF: “Towards a holistic approach for barrier management in the petroleum

industry”

30
Chapter 15

Human Reliability Assessment

Additional Reading
• HSE: Review of human reliability assessment methods

• Human Reliability Analysis Methods; Selection Guidance for NASA

• State-of-the-Art of Human Reliability Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants

• NUREG/CR-6883: The SPAR-H Human Reliability Analysis Method

• NUREG-1880: Atheana User’s Guide

• Fifty Years of THERP and Human Reliability Analysis

• VTT: State-of-the-Art of Human Reliability Analysis for Nuclear Power

Plants

31
Chapter 16

Risk Analysis and Management for

Operation

• Operational risk management

• OPNAVINST 3500.39D: “Operational Risk Management”

• Haugen, Stein: “MIRMAP – Modeling Instantaneous Risk for Major Acci-

dent Prevention”

• Haugen et al: “Activity-based risk analysis for process plant operations”

• Paltrinieri, N. and Khan, F.: “Dynamic Risk Analysis in the Chemical and
Petroleum Industry: Evolution and Interaction with Parallel Disciplines in
the Perspective of Industrial Application”, Butterworth Heinemann, 2016

32
Chapter 17

Security Assessment

Additional Reading
• Survey of Cyber Security Standards.

• SAE J3061 (2016): Cybersecurity Guidebook for Cyber-Physical Vehicle Sys-

tems

• IEC 62443 Security for industrial automation and control systems

• NIST SP-800-82 Guide to Industrial Control Systems (ICS) Security

• Information Security; Guide for Conducting Risk Assessment, (NIST SP 800-

30, 2012). May be downloaded here.

• HSE Cyber Security for Industrial Automation and Control Systems

• Baybutt: A scenario-based approach for industrial cyber security vulnera-

bility analysis

• Cyber Security Body of Knowledge (CyBOK)

Important Organizations
We have listed some main organizations or centers that are engaged in cyber
security problems. A lot of valuable information may be found on the home
pages of these organizations/centers.

• Australia

– Australian Cyber Security Centre

33
 – National Security
– Australian Cyber Security Growth Network (AustCyber)

• Canada

– Public Safety Canada

– Canadian Centre for Cyber Security (CCCS)

• European Union (EU)

– European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA)

• Norway

– Norwegian Center for Information Security (NorSIS)

• United Kingdom

– National Cyber Security Centre

– Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-UK)
– Centre for the Protection of National Infrastructure (CPNI)
– IT Governance

• United States

– Department of Homeland Security

– Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA)

34
Chapter 18

Life Cycle Use of Risk Analysis

Additional Reading
• US DoD: “MIL-STD-882E System Safety”

• NASA: “Systems Engineering Handbook”

• ISO standard 17776: “Petroleum and natural gas industries—offshore pro-

duction installations – major accident hazard management during the de-
sign of new installations”

35
Chapter 19

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis

Additional Reading
• Abrahamson: “Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk Analysis - Characterisa-
tion and Methods of Treatment”

• NUREG-1855: “Guidance on the Treatment of Uncertainties Associated

with PRAs in Risk-Informed Decisionmaking”

• Treatment of Uncertainties in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

36
Chapter 20

Development and Applications of

Risk Assessment

Agricultural Risk
• Introduction to Risk Management

Aviation
• The “System Safety Handbook” of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration
(FAA) may be worth spending some hours reading.

Food
• Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food:
Guidance for Industry

Municipalities, Industry, and Critical Infrastructure

• Guide to Risk and vulnerability analyses

• “Risk Assessment - Recommended Practices for Municipalities and Indus-

try”, Canadian Society for Chemical Engineering.

• Risk Assessment: A How-To Guide to Mitigate Potential Terrorist Attacks

Against Buildings

• Electric System vulnerabilities: a state of the art of defense technologies

37
 • Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure: Protecting People and Reduc-
ing Vulnerabilities

• Risk Management and Critical Infrastructure Protection: Assessing, Inte-

grating, and Managing Threats, Vulnerabilities and Consequences

• Analysis of Critical Infrastructure Dependencies and Interdependencies

Nuclear Power Plants

Important Organizations
• International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

• International Nuclear safety Group (INSAG)

• Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA)

• Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S. NRC)

• Nuclear Risk Research Center

• Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission

• European Nuclear Safety Regulators Group (ENSREG

• Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI)

Further Reading
• Risk-Informed Decision Making: A Survey of United States Experience

Offshore Oil and Gas

• Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for Offshore Applications

• A Guide To Quantitative Risk Assessment for Offshore Installations

• Safety of offshore oil and gas operations: Lessons from past accident anal-
ysis

38
Project Risk
• Project Risk Management Handbook

• Project Risk Management Handbook: A Scalable Approach

Cyber Security Assessment

• NIST: Guide for Conducting Risk Assessments

39
Appendix A

Elements of Probability Theory

• Kroese: “A Short Introduction to Probability”

• Bertsekas-Tsitsiklis: “Introduction to Probability”

40
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Dezfuli, H., Kelly, D., Smith, C., Vedros, K., and Galyean, W. (2009). Bayesian
inference for NASA probabilistic risk and reliability analysis. Technical Re-
port NASA/SP-2009-569, U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration,
Washington, DC.

HSE (1992). The Tolerability of Risk from Nuclear Power Stations. HMSO, London.

IEC 61508 (2010). Functional Safety of Electrical/Electronic/Programmable Elec-

tronic Safety-Related Systems, Parts 1-7. International Electrotechnical Com-
mission, Geneva.

NASA (2002). Fault tree handbook with aerospace applications. Handbook, U.S.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, DC.

NIST SP 800-30 (2012). Information security: Guide to conducting risk assess-

ments. NIST Special Publication SP 800-30, National Institute of Standards
and Technology, U.S. Department of Commerce, Gaithersburg, MD.

OREDA (2015). Offshore and Onshore Reliability Data. OREDA Participants, DNV
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41