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2050 Scenarios: Four Plausible Futures
2050 Scenarios: Four Plausible Futures
2050 Scenarios
2050 SCENARIOS
This report is a collaboration between Arup’s Foresight,
Research and Innovation and Sustainable Development
teams. We are grateful for the input and advice from a
range of contributors.
ABOUT FORESIGHT
Foresight, Research and Innovation is Arup’s internal
think-tank and consultancy which focuses on the future
of the built environment and society at large. We help
organisations understand trends, explore new ideas,
and radically rethink the future of their businesses. We
developed the concept of ‘foresight by design’, which
uses innovative design tools and techniques to bring
new ideas to life, and to engage all stakeholders in
meaningful conversations about change.
Contact: foresight@arup.com
#2050Scenarios
13 Fitzroy Street
London
W1T 4BQ
arup.com
foresight.arup.com
© Arup 2019
Contents
4 Futures context
6 Foreword
8 Executive summary
10 Introduction
12 Post Anthropocene
24 Greentocracy
36 Extinction Express
48 Humans Inc.
60 Scenario comparison
62 Conclusion
64 Contributors
67 Acknowledgements
We live in increasingly
uncertain times. For many, this
is a source of fear; for others, it
is a source of inspiration.”
4 2050 SCENARIOS
2050 SCENARIOS
Futures context
CHRIS LUEBKEMAN
Arup Fellow and Director
Global Foresight, Research and Innovation
5
2050 SCENARIOS
Foreword
J O D A S I LV A
Arup Fellow and Director
Global Sustainable Development Leader
6 2050 SCENARIOS
The future is fiction. It
is a story that we write
together, limited only by
our imagination and our
understanding of the world
around us.”
7
P L A N E TA R Y H E A LT H
IMPROVES
S O C I E TA L C O N D I T I O N
IMPROVES
DECLINES
P L A N E TA R Y H E A LT H
DECLINES
8 2050 SCENARIOS
2050 SCENARIOS
Executive summary
2050 Scenarios: Four plausible futures is intended to POST ANTHROPOCENE shows how societal
develop a vocabulary and framework to help us envision conditions and planetary health might exist in a
different futures and provide a platform to discuss the harmonious relationship, fortifying each other for
implications of the implied trajectories. Ultimately, they mutual progress and benefit. Taman, a biotech project
help to identify and visualise what is worth striving for manager in Jakarta, is finding his place in this
and what to avoid. balanced world.
Arup has developed the scenarios in line with our GREENTOCRACY describes an improvement in
commitment to shaping a sustainable future and a planetary health which has been enabled by severe
recognition that the path towards it will be challenging. restrictions on human society: restrictive living
Radical design solutions will be required. Our approach conditions, conflict and authoritarian regimes
plots each scenario in relation to two intersecting axes: prevail. The accompanying story details the everyday
planetary health and societal condition. compromises made by Moussa as he heads to work in
eastern Senegal.
The science-based targets of the nine Planetary
Boundaries, Arup’s Drivers of Change cards, as well EXTINCTION EXPRESS depicts both declining
as the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals planetary health and societal conditions. It is
(UN SDGs) were used to set parameters and guide the questionable how much longer humanity can survive.
scenario development. Caitlyn, an Oslo-based commodities trader, is shocked
into facing the realities of her privileged existence.
The core narrative of each scenario is accompanied by
a story told from the perspective of a person within that HUMANS INC. represents our current trajectory; a
world. A timeline of events between today and 2050 world in which societal conditions advance at the cost
describes how each world could come to exist, along of planetary health. The accompanying story describes
with key facts and references. The extent to which each Yuka, a Nunavut native, as she struggles with the
scenario satisfies the 17 UN SDGs is also indicated. changes that have engulfed her once remote home.
9
10 2050 SCENARIOS
2050 SCENARIOS
Introduction
Most global trends indicate an improvement in societal The trends were mapped into a four-square matrix
wellbeing; an increase in global life expectancy, GDP with two axes: planetary health and societal condition.
and education levels. Simultaneously, other trends Planetary health measures the condition of Earth’s
depict a more perilous future, particularly regarding our natural systems, including water cycles, forests, oceans,
environment: global temperature and sea level rise, an biodiversity and climate change. Societal condition
increase in extreme weather events, ocean acidification describes the state of humanity, and encompasses
and tropical forest loss. These trends are often viewed factors such as the quality of life, public health, societal
individually and perhaps perceived as being unrelated, structure, governance systems, education, and work.
yet they interact in complex and often intricate ways.
This matrix was then populated with twenty critical
This document provides a view into of four factors that will affect our global future, each with
plausible futures that explore the intersection of multiple possible trajectories. A working group
planetary health and societal conditions in the year considered, confirmed and clustered the trajectories
2050. These were developed in collaboration with Arup along the two axes, setting the baseline for the
colleagues from around the world with backgrounds four scenarios.
ranging from geotechnics and urban planning to
structural engineering and ecology. The scenarios are The first iteration was the result of a two-day working
neither predictions nor forecasts, but summaries of session. A cross-section of leaders and experts was then
future worlds. brought together to explore and expand these scenarios
and to consider the role that the UN SDGs might play.
Our research began with a review of global trends and The scenarios were further developed into this set of
projections obtained from think tanks, governments, four narratives, stories, data and timelines.
statistical data, NGOs and research institutions.
While some trends are presented as inevitable – life We hope the scenarios spark your imagination and
expectancy is increasing, the world is expanding its help you think about the role that all of us can play
urban footprint, global population is on the rise – other in designing, building, inhabiting and living in our
trends, such as frequency of extreme weather events, communal future.
food security, and income disparity are highly uncertain
and subject to variability.
11
The world of 2050 boasts a
balanced biosphere: humanity
and ‘spaceship Earth’ are
thriving in harmony.
12 2050 SCENARIOS
2050 SCENARIOS
Post Anthropocene
13
POST ANTHROPOCENE
14 2050 SCENARIOS
What was once known as
rubbish or garbage is one of
today’s most valuable resources
and is mined both on land and
sea. Everything is a resource.
15
POST ANTHROPOCENE
stable weather
92%
clean energy
16 2050 SCENARIOS
17
POST ANTHROPOCENE
Timeline
2020
2023 2033
G L O B A L C L I M AT E BLACK MARKET SAND
ACTION FUND AT A N A L L -T I M E H I G H
E S TA B L I S H E D Global sand reserves are a fraction
The Climate Action Fund is of total demand and black-market
established in Europe and China trading has tripled, driving the
as global courts agree to hear industry to re-think its processes.
its first Climate Inaction Class- Leading global concrete
Action Law Suit. The SBT coalition manufacturers commitment to
forms to formalise metrics for all 100% renewable energy for all
corporations and governments production by 2040, helping Earth
reach 1.5:1 consumption rate
18 2050 SCENARIOS
2 0 41 2045 2049
BUILDING GUIDELINES FOLLOW VIRGIN PLASTIC COMMONS WELCOMES
S C I E N C E B A S E D TA R G E T S ( S B T S ) B A N N E D G L O B A L LY NEW MEMBER
SBTs are the norm for building codes and urban Circular processing of waste The Savannah flag flies at the UN,
design guidelines in both new and retrofit design is now the global norm and and the global commons have a
based on the SBT materials assessment metric. The all plastic is made from 100% voice on the world stage thanks
C40 Cities group has evolved into the C400 reused materials to the efforts of the Parliament of
the Commons
2050
19
POST ANTHROPOCENE
Jakarta, 2050
TA M A N
Male, 32 years old
BBA
Bachelors of Business
Administration
PROJECT MANAGER
Biotech
LI V E S W ITH PA R E NT S
Looking to move into new
development
INTERESTS
Video games, soccer
It’s warm this morning, and Taman is enjoying the faint Taman has seen it all, sat through all the corporate
breeze as he rides through the still air, the icy, prickling presentations and marketing meetings. He’s even
sensation as it evaporates sweat from his arms and his experienced the VR simulations where he’s been shrunk
forehead. He smiles and leans into it, pedalling harder. down to the size of a plastic molecule and dropped into
His earpiece chimes softly, whispers of encouragement the marshes.
celebrate the calories he’s burnt and the carbon saved.
He’s heading to a strategy meeting about the
The surface of the marshes is flecked with green algae technologies right now; in fact, his boss wants him
and blue translucent flowers. The robotic flickering of to report back on how well the European sales team’s
the dragonflies hovering above the water is the only attempts to trial the same tech in Amsterdam is going.
apparent movement as the landscape blurs past, but Some problem with the relatively low acidity of the silt
Taman knows what stirs under the surface. A trillion in the canals, apparently. The whole push into Northern
lacelike tendrils, engineered from jellyfish DNA, are Europe has been a slog; mainly because getting the
filtering and cleaning the water, stripping it of toxins artificial ecosystem to adapt to the colder temperatures
and plastic molecules, separating precious organic has been an endless headache. The product was designed
compounds and nutrients from the centuries of human to work in a much warmer climate, the one Europe was
and animal waste. predicted to experience, but didn’t. Temperatures across
20 2050 SCENARIOS
Europe have returned to their historical averages. This that it used to be chronically overcrowded, permanently
product was not designed to operate in such a stable gridlocked, and sinking in to the swamps. They never
climate. Taman thinks about Berlin, whose temperature thought the city would survive the exodus post-capital,
has been below 24ºC for all of August. but the reality was the city got space to breathe again.
They banned cars and let the marshes reclaim the
His dad was angry with him for nearly a whole year crumbling roads and some buildings, creating a city of
when he first took this job. Maybe angry isn’t the right air and space, one that let nature in. Two decades later
word; disappointed. Taman’s employers used to be one balance had arrived, and it was time to build again, this
of The Bad Guys, one of the huge oil multinationals time with care and responsibility.
that spent nearly two centuries carelessly exploiting
the geological past at the expense of the planet’s future. A voice, deep and cheerful, shouts Taman’s name
At least until people made it clear they’d had enough, through his earpiece. He glances to his left to see a
and their customers and shareholders rebelled against cartoon of Thembi, the first re-wilded white rhino, trying
them, forcing them to change their ways, to break up, to to tempt him away from work with a bowl of steaming
rename and rebrand. Now, as he endlessly told his dad, noodles and a frosted glass of tea. The Balance Day
they were trying to make amends, finding innovative Meal Combo Special. He’s in the commercial district
ways to make energy and to clean up the messes they now, the final stretch of his ride, and everything is
had made – they were even one of the original partners covered with screens. News, sport, advertising, animated
in the SBT Coalition Network. He tried to show him corporate logos, and in amongst them all, repeated over
the corporate presentations and VR simulations, and and over again, is the UN Parliament of The Commons
with time he began to listen, if reluctantly. There was a flag. Balance Day was almost a month ago, but still the
bitterness the older generations still had, a suspicion that brands are riding the celebration, still using the global
the companies were still only in it for the profits, and high of hitting the planet’s neutral consumption goals to
that somehow, they had been free of responsibility of the sell snacks and trinkets. Taman smiles, shakes his head
disasters they had caused, simply because they hadn’t – he knows his dad wouldn’t approve, never trusting the
been as bad as everyone had expected. corporations, fretting about his privacy and what they
might be doing with all his data – but it doesn’t worry
Taman weaves the bike through electric traffic, takes him so much. Things seem pretty good. Sure, the city
a left at the intersection, the temperature dropping watches him everywhere he goes, tracks every calorie
as the sun disappears behind the vast bulk of a half and joule he burns, but it seems like a fair trade for
built arcology. Cranes rise out of its cracked eggshell keeping everything balanced. Plus, he doesn’t have time
shape, the apartments and office spaces already partly to worry about his data right now, he’s more concerned
occupied, and emerald green vertical farms sucking by what mood his boss is in. He’s running late, and
up and filtering nutrients from the marshes. Jakarta is his earpiece is whispering cooler temperatures in
changing, rebuilding again. Nearly 23 years since they Amsterdam. He leans into the breeze and pedals harder.
moved the capital out of the city, and a large portion of
the population with it, people are starting to move back
in. Taman is too young to remember it well but was told
21
POST ANTHROPOCENE
Key indicators
This page describes how the 17 UN SDGs would fare in this scenario. The scale indicates the level to which each
UN SDG has been achieved, compared to 2019. The dark coloured circle is the mean level of achievement while the
lighter coloured horizontal range indicates the variance.
1 6 10 14
NO POVERTY C L E A N WAT E R REDUCED INEQUALITY L I F E B E L O W WAT E R
Poverty is at an all-time low. S A N I TAT I O N The wealth gap is low. The most Marine protected areas more than
Watershed restoration has growth in GDP is seen in the doubled since 2019. 95% of the
improved annual flows and middle class, which now holds Great Pacific Garbage Patch has
2 water security. the largest share. High foreign been cleared.
ZERO HUNGER direct investment (FDI) in the
Advances in GMO, organic, Global South is focused on natural
and precision agriculture feed 7 capital. 15
the world. AFFORDABLE AND LIFE ON LAND
CLE AN ENERGY Global forest cover has increased
Renewable energy is affordable, 11 30% since 2019. Key carbon
3 small-scale and decentralised. S U S TA I N A B L E C I T I E S stores (rainforests, soils,
G O O D H E A LT H A N D Smart technology shifts control AND COMMUNITIES grasslands, wetlands, etc.) are
WELL-BEING from the utility to the consumer. Urban spaces are inclusive with intensively restored.
Predictive and precision medicine affordable housing and accessible
is affordable and inclusive. The green space. Green infrastructure
global life expectancy is 79 years. 8 is prioritised over grey with a focus 16
DECENT WORK AND on resilience. PEACE, JUSTICE AND
ECONOMIC GROWTH STRONG INSTITUTIONS
4 A living wage is achievable in most 80% of governments are
Q U A L I T Y E D U C AT I O N countries. Employment is easy to 12 democratically elected. Civil
Education levels are increasing sustain and levels are high. RESPONSIBLE liberties, such as freedom of
globally. 91% of adult’s complete CONSUMPTION AND press, religion, and expression, are
secondary education and 30% PRODUCTION at an all-time high. Data collection
pursue tertiary. Life-long learning 9 Economies are circular and value is high, but anonymised, open,
accounts are commonplace. I N D U S T R Y, based. Natural capital is integrated shared, and inclusive with
I N N O VAT I O N A N D into financing. high accountability.
INFRASTRUCTURE
5 Artificial intelligence is pervasive
GENDER EQUALITY across municipal systems which 13 17
Economic development are smart and flexible. Natural C L I M AT E AC T I O N PA RTN E R S H I PS FO R
and education have decreased capital, green tech, and resilience Collaborative decarbonisation THE GOAL
fertility rates globally. 55% of are highly subsidised. efforts have been made globally Global relationships are
governments report equal across sectors. Global mean stable and international
gender representation. temperature rise has remained institutions successfully facilitate
below the 1.5oC target and the global protocols.
sea level has risen less
than expected.
22 2050 SCENARIOS
DECLINED IMPROVED
23
In 2050, societies are
highly divided, unequal and
suppressed. Most of the Earth’s
ecosystems are on a clearly
chartered recovery plan.
24 2050 SCENARIOS
2050 SCENARIOS
Greentocracy
For most of the last two decades, the Earth and its
health have enjoyed the highest priority in the public
consciousness. The scale and speed of environmental
degradation of the first quarter of the century, with
extreme weather events, rising urban air pollution
and climate migration, drove governments and major
global cities to act swiftly, and strictly, on climate
action. Popular unrest and ardent civil demand led
to unanimous agreement that everyone must help
the planet to heal. Protected lands have expanded
worldwide, and significant resources have been
allocated to restoring ecosystems. The extinction
curve is flat and many species previously on the brink
of extinction are regenerating. The effects of climate
change can still be felt and sea levels continue to rise,
yet the impacts are less severe than expected.
25
GREENTOCRACY
26 2050 SCENARIOS
Seventy per cent of ‘meat-
like’ protein is grown in labs
and crated from plant-based
products and the cultivation of
animal cells..
27
GREENTOCRACY
stable weather
97%
clean energy
28 2050 SCENARIOS
29
GREENTOCRACY
Timeline
2020
30 2050 SCENARIOS
2042
E X PA N S I O N O F M A R I N E 2046
PROTECTED AREAS GLOBAL CARBON
UN expands Marine Protected XCHANGE OPENS
Areas (MPAs) across the globe Global Carbon Xchange (GCX)
and cruise-liners are banned in the opens in Lagos, a city that
North-Sea, Baltic-Sea, North- became a leader in the CoCA
Atlantic by UNEP backed Northern initiative following the successful
Nature Alliance agreement of 2027
2050
31
GREENTOCRACY
The bus is crammed, standing room only. Too many people and
not enough seats. So many bodies that Moussa can’t make out
their forms, just visual snippets and clues:
MOUSSA
Male, 46 years old
RAISED IN RURAL
SENEGAL
HIGH SCHOOL
DIPLOMA
Additional vocational office
training. Certificate earned
in refugee camp
GOVERNMENT OFFICE
WORKER
Civil Servant
MARRIED
With a toddler
INTERESTS
Crafting, making/repairing
clothes
an elbow wrapped in a designer upcycled shirt, a hand Outside the bus Diamniadio Lake City is rain slicked,
holding the scratched case of a refurbished tablet, a face the little they can see of it. There are too many bodies,
hidden behind second-hand sunglasses. It rained this as though they’ve spilled out from the bus and filled
morning, the usual warm drizzle, and as it evaporates the streets, blocking traffic and filling the sidewalks
off water-resistant clothing it hangs in the air around and bike lanes. It somehow feels more claustrophobic
Moussa’s face like a tropical mist. out there than here, Moussa thinks, pleased he didn’t
jump off the bus at the last stop to try and walk the rest
He’s got a seat at least, crammed up against the fogged- of the way. He very nearly did, but he’d have been at
up window. It’s some small consolation for the bus the office no sooner, lost instead in the sea of people.
being stationary for what feels like an hour. He knows Plus, the protests make him anxious now. He’d enjoyed
it hasn’t been that long, probably mere minutes, but them as a teenager, relishing that feeling of solidarity
he refuses to check the time, to see how late for work and group power, knowing that he was actually making
he’s really going to be. Instead he turns to the window, a difference, forcing the government to sit up and take
wiping a viewport through the condensation with a notice. He’d shut down traffic just like this – shut down
gloved hand, trying not to think about what bacteria has the whole city for days – the simple tactic of filling the
been deposited by the communal fog. streets with bodies whose presence the autonomous cars
and buses were programmed to never ignore.
32 2050 SCENARIOS
But this is different, and it saddens him. Moussa can tell He’s jarred from thoughts by shouting, angry and
from reading the placards, from the muffled chants that pained, and for a second, he thinks the protesters have
filter in through the bus’s windows. People First. Give broken in, have boarded the bus. But then he feels
Us Back The Countryside. Human Lives Matter. We the mass of passengers on the bus shift in shape, as
Want Real Food. We Want The Right To Choose. though recoiling, trying to create a bubble in itself,
and realises where the shouting is coming from. Some
It’s a confused message, but he has some sympathy. commuter close to breaking point, some poor, confused
He’s never been able to afford a car, let alone keep one and anguished soul that can’t take it anymore. Societal
charged. He hasn’t been on a plane since he was eight Stress Disorder, they call it on the news. There’s a lot
years old, not left the country for at least twenty years. of it around. Some people just can’t take the crowds
It’s been nearly a year since he got out of the city even, anymore, the cities too full since the countryside
since he took one of those government tours out into the and the exurbs were evacuated except for robots and
countryside, saw forests and farms, the protected spaces essential workers. And then there’s the reports and
and nature reserves. So lush, so green, so beautiful. His rumours that their diets aren’t helping, that the lab
water and electricity bills are as high as everyone else’s, grown meats and printed proteins don’t have the right
his Carbon Allowance just as tight as the protesters. nutrients, and that it’s affecting people’s brains, their
emotional states.
But he can’t help thinking the protesters are being
selfish. The same selfishness that got them here in the Moussa stares down into the congealing, artificially
first place, the same focus on individuality, the same flavoured Starbucks Roach Milk Latte that’s going cold
centuries-long abdication of communal responsibility in his hands and the LABFood breakfast that has been
that he marched against when he was a teenager. And in the news lately; he feels his stomach flip. Best not to
he can’t stop thinking about the storms when he was think about that stuff too much. Instead he thumbs on
even younger, or about his mother, waist high in grey his earbuds, letting noise cancelling frequencies drown
water, sobbing in the kitchen of their now abandoned out the poor man’s cries, lets ambient soundscapes take
home. He remembers his father holding him close in their place. Bird songs, waves crashing on beaches, the
a supermarket, protecting him from the angry rustle of wind through leaves. Sounds he only hears
crowds pushing past each other to get to meagrely now from his mobile apps. His phone buzzes angrily
stocked shelves. to warn him how expensive using the earbuds are,
how much of his Carbon Allowance they’ll use up. He
He remembers all this as he looks out on the sea of dismisses it with a swipe and closes his eyes. Everybody
marchers, all splendid in their iconic high-viz vests, needs an escape sometimes. He’ll make the sacrifice
and wonders when everyone’s memories got so short. somewhere else.
He wonders when everyone stopped believing that the
everyday sacrifices they make are worth it – that they
work – that they’re the only way to stop the oceans
from rising, to let the countryside heal itself, to let the
fish stocks start slowly recovering.
33
GREENTOCRACY
Key indicators
This page describes how the 17 UN SDGs would fare in this scenario. The scale indicates the level to which each
UN SDG has been achieved, compared to 2019. The dark coloured circle is the mean level of achievement while the
lighter coloured horizontal range indicates the variance.
1 6 10 14
NO POVERTY C L E A N WAT E R A N D REDUCED INEQUALITY L I F E B E L O W WAT E R
Extreme poverty has increased, S A N I TAT I O N The wealth gap is high and the Marine protected areas have more
but persists in the Global South. Sanitation levels drop as stringent least developed economies see than tripled since 2019. Strategic
water quotas are implemented. little growth. coastal restoration continues to
Waste water, a precious improve biodiversity.
2 commodity, is reused.
ZERO HUNGER 11
Lab-grown protein sources S U S TA I N A B L E C I T I E S 15
improve food security but 7 AND COMMUNITIES LIFE ON LAND
micronutrient deficiencies are on AFFORDABLE AND Access to green spaces and Protected land area has increased
the rise. CLE AN ENERGY natural features is restricted. by 70% globally since 2019. Some
Utilities are state-owned and Compact living spaces in dense endangered species are beginning
vertically integrated. Energy urban areas preserve non- to recover.
3 generation is clean and urban land.
G O O D H E A LT H A N D large-scale.
WELL-BEING 16
Health care is universal, but very 12 PEACE, JUSTICE AND
basic. Mental health is declining. 8 RESPONSIBLE STRONG INSTITUTIONS
Life expectancy is 75 years. DECENT WORK AND CONSUMPTION AND 35% of governments are
ECONOMIC GROWTH PRODUCTION democratically elected. Civil
Employment levels are high as The economy is highly regulated, liberties are low, press coverage
4 new job types have been created. value-based, and circular. is restricted, and expression must
Q U A L I T Y E D U C AT I O N Desirable jobs are few and Upcycling is at an all-time high. align with local laws.
Education levels are increasing far between.
globally, yet unequally. 72%
of adults complete secondary 13 17
education and 20% pursue tertiary, 9 C L I M AT E AC T I O N PA RTN E R S H I PS FO R
but they are mostly wealthy. I N D U S T R Y, Significant decarbonisation actions THE GOALS
I N N O VAT I O N A N D are mandated globally across International legislation is upheld
INFRASTRUCTURE sectors. Coordinated international on climate-related issues.
5 Industry commits to Science- action has reduced emissions. Relationships are semi-cooperative
GENDER EQUALITY Based Targets (SBTs) and there Global mean temperature rise has and protocols are regional.
One child policies were is high investment in climate remained below the 1.5°C target
adopted extensively, restricting friendly commodities. People and and the sea level has risen less
reproductive rights. environments are highly sensored. than expected.
34 2050 SCENARIOS
IMPROVED
DECLINED
35
The mid-21st century is marked
by the extensive degradation
of planetary and human
conditions.
36 2050 SCENARIOS
2050 SCENARIOS
Extinction Express
37
EXTINCTION EXPRESS
38 2050 SCENARIOS
Large-scale air domes have
been extracted over in many
of the world’s most prominent
cities, to create safe havens for
some of the populations.
39
EXTINCTION EXPRESS
low global
cooperation
extreme weather
23%
clean energy
40 2050 SCENARIOS
41
EXTINCTION EXPRESS
Timeline
2020
2020
42 2050 SCENARIOS
2039
BAN ON FOREIGN 2040
STUDENTS MOON AND DEEP-
Australia and New Zealand ban SEA MINING BY
all foreign students from entering C O R P O R AT E S
their countries. Isolationism and In an order less world, the first
“fear of the foreign” is at an all- come, first served principle
time high prevails: the highest corporate and
state spenders effectively control
the extraction of resources (water,
rare elements, and rare minerals)
from the moon and many deep-
sea territories
2050
43
EXTINCTION EXPRESS
Oslo, 2050
The car guides itself silently through sparse traffic, Caitlyn gazes
out through the tinted windows at the passing towers, her eyes
following their elegant steel and window lines skyward where
they merge and intersect with the geodesic mesh of the dome.
C A I T LY N
Female, 61 years old
PHD IN ASTROPHYSICS
Caitlyn never had
the opportunity to
use her degree, apart from
speculative asteroid mining
COMMODITIES MARKET
T R A D E R / A N A LY S T
INTERESTS
Astronomy, lifestyle
brands, and beauty treatments
Filtered daylight falls gently through the hexagonal face, even now slowly regenerating her skin and wiping
panes, birds flying above making lazy silhouettes as away the creases. It was expensive, but the results are
they circle with almost algorithmic precision. It’s the worth it. She’s worth it.
first time she’s left her building in about a week, she
realises, vowing to do it more often. Something about She turns her attention back to the tablet unfurled in
it is intoxicating, but she can’t decide what. Maybe it’s her lap. Its screen is full of monochrome images of
the streets, how clean and beautifully lit they seem, crater fields and orbital paths, infographics of projected
like a perfect film set, or maybe it’s the gentle ballet of mineral density and the calculated impact on global rare
the automated traffic, and the precise, minimalist sense earth commodity prices. She smiles to herself. If the
of order and restrained control. Or maybe it’s just that probe’s readings are right, there’s enough neodymium
microdose of Contentment she inhaled alongside her in this one rock to destabilise the mining economies of
espresso this morning to help her get through the day. at least two African nations. She’s already got a couple
in mind.
She laughs gently to herself, shakes her head, and
checks her reflection. The wrinkles on her forehead Getting into an orbit where it can be properly assessed,
are slowly starting to flatten out – a result of the DNA let alone processed, is going to be costly. She swipes
shifting retrovirus the clinic in Malmo injected into her the tablet to reveal her portfolio, tapping at icons to see
44 2050 SCENARIOS
where she can free up some capital. Somewhere, deep Caitlyn struggles for breath, tries to blank out the
in corporate dark pools in NYC and Shanghai, invisible screams and sirens. Beyond the disintegrating tent
AI agents start to stir, watching a million transactions a city, the dome – her home – rises, and from the outside
second to find patterns in the market. she’s surprised by how run-down it looks, how its
windowless surface is smeared with grime and black
The car’s obsidian black dashboard, free of visible dust. From out here it looks almost as desperate as the
displays or controls, chimes gently at her, announces fractured city that surrounds it, like a hermetically
with restrained charm that they are passing through one sealed prison, and she’s jolted into confronting her
of the dome’s security checkpoints. She looks out the reality, that the blue skies she wakes up to every
window again, just as they glide through the gateway, morning are a lie, a simulation meant to comfort and
the city outside sliding into view. It’s not that much distract her. They’re gone now, along with the birds that
different really, she thinks. It’s brighter, sure, with no were never there, replaced only by the constantly rolling
dome to block out the worst of the UV, but otherwise black clouds and the acrid taste of smoke. Her eyes
it’s the same blue skies, the same elegant buildings, the start to sting and squinting through tears she can make
same ballet of automated traffic. She really should get out that the hills around the city are glowing deep red
out more. against the dark sky.
By the time she looks back down into her lap one of And then, within a few seconds, it’s all over. The car
her agents has short sold enough stock of a Belgian plunges into darkness before softly lighting itself as
orbital haulage company to anonymously seize her protective shields spring from the doors to cover all the
a controlling share. That should make shifting the windows, including the shattered one. Silence returns
asteroid’s course more cost effective. Now, to see if as the sound-cancelling speakers kick back in, the air
she can find some way of finding cheaper fuel. around her starts to cool as the climate adjusts itself.
Something hits the window next to her, hard; she She can feel the car start to move.
screams and throws herself sideways onto the leather
seat. For the first time she realises the car is stationary. Her hands still tremble as they search wildly in her
The window is a cobweb of shattered lines transposed purse, trying to find the vaporiser. She pulls it out and
over a constant, looping, glitched burst of video-noise stabs at its touchscreen, dialling up a dose of CalmMe.
static, until it crumbles and gives way, falling She lets it charge, then takes a long drag, the thin
inwards, littering the seat next to her with shards of vapour exiting her lungs and disappearing into the
liquid crystal. car’s hidden air filters. She takes another drag, then a
third, before she feels herself start to calm down, her
Noise fills the previously silent car, and the world breathing starting to regulate once more. A feeling of
outside looks like a TV switched to a different channel. peace and contentment descends gently over her.
It’s dark, as though the sun was suddenly extinguished.
Her hands trembling, Caitlyn slowly straightens herself Her gaze falls back into her lap as she smooths creases
up to peer outside, the heat hitting her face, and the first out of the tablet, like the virus smoothing out her
thing she sees is a woman, screaming and dirty, arms ageing skin. Crater fields and orbital paths, infographics
outstretched at her in desperation, as a faceless police of projected mineral density. She taps at the screen,
officer in polycarbonate armour drags her away from focuses again, as she sends another swarm of agents out
the car. He throws her to the pavement, garbled orders to find her a source of cheap rocket fuel.
barked from behind his visor, as his partner silences her
with a nightstick blow to the skull. Behind them more
police, watched over by a swarm of micro-drones, rip
apart the tents that line the freeway, hurling violence
onto their dishevelled inhabitants.
45
EXTINCTION EXPRESS
Key indicators
This page describes how the 17 UN SDGs would fare in this scenario. The scale indicates the level to which each
UN SDG has been achieved, compared to 2019. The dark coloured circle is the mean level of achievement while the
lighter coloured horizontal range indicates the variance.
1 6 10 15
NO POVERTY C L E A N WAT E R REDUCED INEQUALITY LIFE ON LAND
Living wage jobs are inaccessible S A N I TAT I O N Global and domestic wealth Drylands expanded to 53% of
to the majority. Major economic Major waterways are highly gaps are high. Growth has been global land area due to extensive
loss is experienced regularly due contaminated. Potable water is concentrated in major developed deforestation, climate change and
to extreme weather. corporately controlled and costly. and emerging economies. alterations in land use. Biodiversity
loss is at extreme levels.
2 7 11
ZERO HUNGER AFFORDABLE AND S U S TA I N A B L E C I T I E S 16
Climate change and biodiversity CLE AN ENERGY AND COMMUNITIES PEACE, JUSTICE AND
loss reduce crop yields. Adaptive Energy prices surge driving some Many coastal cities face STRONG INSTITUTIONS
seeds are monopolised. Fisheries gains in efficiency, yet there is a frequent and extensive flooding, 30% of governments are
are exploited to depletion. continued reliance on fossil fuels. displacing millions. democratically elected. Civil
Hydropower is affected by drought liberties are very low, press
and erratic weather. coverage is restricted, and
3 12 freedom of expression is not
G O O D H E A LT H A N D RESPONSIBLE allowed.
WELL-BEING 8 CONSUMPTION AND
Air pollution is the leading cause DECENT WORK AND PRODUCTION
of death (10 million a year globally). ECONOMIC GROWTH Economies are 17
Access to healthcare is low. Life Unemployment is high and job consumption-based. PA RTN E R S H I PS FO R
expectancy is 72 years. security is low. Many perform THE GOALS
attainable yet undesirable jobs and High global instability exists
have limited protection and rights. 13 with national governing protocols.
4 C L I M AT E AC T I O N International bodies are
Q U A L I T Y E D U C AT I O N The Arctic is largely free of summer not respected.
Globally, education levels increase 9 ice, driving greater than predicted
slightly. 68% of adults complete I N D U S T R Y, sea level rise. Global mean
secondary education while 15% I N N O VAT I O N A N D temperature has far exceeded the
complete tertiary, yet this is limited INFRASTRUCTURE 2°C target.
to the wealthiest regions. Internet of Things and Artificial
Intelligence are mainly
implemented for individual and 14
5 corporate gains. L I F E B E L O W WAT E R
GENDER EQUALITY 90% of coral reefs experience
Lack of access to contraception annual bleaching events.
and education keeps fertility rates Deep sea mining disrupts
high in the least aquatic ecosystems.
developed countries.
46 2050 SCENARIOS
DECLINED IMPROVED
47
The world in 2050 is shaped
by three decades of gradual
societal improvement,
coupled with half-hearted
environmental stewardship.
48 2050 SCENARIOS
2050 SCENARIOS
Humans Inc.
49
HUMANS INC.
51
HUMANS INC.
52 2050 SCENARIOS
53
HUMANS INC.
Timeline
2020
2030 2035
PERUVIANS VOTE FOR ANOTHER FOOD CRISIS
UBI HITS MOZAMBIQUE
Peru votes for the introduction of Food crisis resulting in severe
Universal Basic Income, the first famine hits Mozambique, forcing
South American nation to do so the population to rely heavily on
food imports
54 2050 SCENARIOS
2040 2047 2048
AMBULANCE FLEET CITRUS GROWING LIMA RUNS DRY
S TA N D S S T I L L R EG I O N E X PA N DS Lima runs out of potable water, the
Seoul experiences the coldest Citrus can now be grown third of the world’s largest cities
winter on record; its electric vehicle successfully in Scandinavia and three years in a row
stock stands still as batteries large parts of northern China
cease to work in such extreme and Russia
cold temperatures — this leads
to major disruptions of critical
services such as ambulance
and fire
2050
55
HUMANS INC.
Iqaluit, 2050
YUKA
Female, 23 years old
NATIVE TO REGION
AA IN FINE ARTS
Online degree
CERAMIC ARTIST
Customer Service
ET
Representative
LIVES ALONE
Cares for nearby
elderly family
INTERESTS
Art, music,
indigenous culture
It was easy to forget that it didn’t exist three years running late, and even when she does duck through
ago. Yuka weaves her way through groups of partying here it’s not usually this bad. It’s not even 8am yet but
settlers, the smell of cheap beer and vomit making her the parties are still raging, and then Yuka remembers
wish she’d brought her government-issued breathing why and curses herself for being so careless. It was the
mask. No marsh fires today though, air quality alerts solstice yesterday, 22 hours of continuous sunlight.
were all green and yellow when she left the house, the The Midnight Sun parties will go on until dusk finally
first time in weeks. comes, or the settlers get tired and give up, whichever
comes first.
Some guy, huge and very drunk, probably a miner or
a port worker, steps backwards without looking and Yuka understands the workers and their need to party,
nearly knocks her off her feet. Yuka regains her balance but their excess still infuriates her. She gets it, they
without slowing her pace, keeping her head down, and come from all over the world, from places that are
ignoring the disgruntled shouts from behind her. Don’t struggling, trying to find a new future for themselves.
even glance back, not worth the hassle. She usually Oil workers from a Houston that’s been abandoned
avoids Enterprise Square unless, like today, she’s to storm flooding, crop pickers from drought hit
56 2050 SCENARIOS
Californian towns where the farms have shrivelled Sure, it’s changed a lot, but it’s not all bad, Yuka
up and died. One day a factory worker came in to the reminds herself. In many ways she knows she is lucky.
shop to buy shoes and told her that the island he’s from For a start, the increase in jobs has enabled investment
doesn’t exist anymore, lost beneath the rising oceans. in new infrastructure, lowered the cost of food and
Yuka can’t remember its name. But yeah, she gets allowed for more leisure time. She only needs to work
it, they come here to find work and with the hope of part time at the shop because the city became so rich
finding clean air, open spaces, food that hasn’t been that it now gives everyone a UBI payment every month.
grown in a lab. And money, lots of it. They want to let It’s enough to cover rent, which means Yuka can spend
their hair down, celebrate their new fortune. Yuka just a few hours every day in the pottery studio working on
wishes sometimes that they’d do it somewhere else. her ceramics. She obtained her college degree through
completely free online courses that didn’t cost her a
It feels worse now, but if she’s honest it’s been this penny, they even covered the journeys to the classes
way for as long as she can remember. At least since down in Vancouver. She’s got an apartment in one of the
she finished high school. There’s this weird cultural new high-rise condos overlooking the bay, huge and all
memory passed down from the elders of when the city to herself, filled with all the latest gadgets and a TV the
was still just a village, when there were only a few length of the wall. A little countertop robot prepares and
thousand people here, most of them natives, and you cooks food, another vacuums and mops the floor. Plus,
knew everybody’s name. But that was decades ago, when the ice melted they dropped that big pipe into the
before Yuka was even born. Now it’s close to a million sea, so that one day – when Yuka was a teenager – she
and rising. It’s funny how you can feel nostalgic for a suddenly had crazy-fast internet. All the bandwidth she
way of life you’ve never had, she thinks. could ever need, TV and movies from every continent,
and for the first time Yuka felt connected to the world,
It all started when the snowfields melted, and when outside Nunavut. She watched in ultra-high-def as
the sea stopped icing over. Suddenly there was fertile people queued for drinking water in Rio and trudged
land to grow crops, and the ships could get in all year through streets inundated by the ocean, yet again, in
round. First, they built that huge automated container Miami. It made her realise that however crazy Iqaluit
port just outside of the town, so they could bring goods seemed, she was one of the lucky ones. It was changing,
in from China and Russia, and cheap oil from Alberta. but it would always be her home.
Then the agricorps rolled in, snatching up the newly
exposed, unclaimed prairies to grow fruit and crops Yuka is nearly at the store when a sound surprises her,
under vast plastic tents. The port started getting bigger, and two women stumble from a doorway. One of them
more automated. The city started growing. At some is coughing uncontrollably, spit and snot splattering
point, when Yuka was still young, there was all that the sidewalk. She crosses the street to give them a wide
fuss when they found that large rare earth deposit out berth. It’s probably nothing, probably just too much
to the north west. Within a couple of years, the Chinese partying, but it unnerves her. She’s heard stories from
and Canadian mining companies had dropped enough the agricultural workers of people getting sick with
money into the province to convince the leaders to let fevers that they never recover from, the rumours that
them turn Iqaluit into a Special Economic Zone, and the melting permafrost released something else along
from there it snowballed. Migrant workers from all over with the fertile ground: ancient diseases and prehistoric
the world, though mainly from the rest of Canada, the viruses that have been lying dormant for millennia. She
US, Mexico, even Russia flooding in to work on the pulls her hood up even higher, wishing again that she’d
farms, in the mines, or the new electronics factories. brought her breathing mask.
Soon there were more containers flowing out of the
port, sending cattle and fruit to the south where it’s
too dry to grow it anymore, and magnets and batteries
to the cities where the power networks have been
abandoned to the heat and floods.
57
HUMANS INC.
Key indicators
This page describes how the 17 UN SDGs would fare in this scenario. The scale indicates the level to which each
UN SDG has been achieved, compared to 2019. The dark coloured circle is the mean level of achievement while the
lighter coloured horizontal range indicates the variance.
1 5 9 13
NO POVERTY GENDER EQUALITY I N D U S T R Y, C L I M AT E AC T I O N
Poverty is at an all-time low. Unpaid care and domestic work is I N N O VAT I O N A N D Arctic sea ice continues to be lost
Social state principles experience covered by welfare in most of the INFRASTRUCTURE at 12% per decade, driving sea
a renaissance with a new world. Economic development and Short-term thinking has rendered level rise. Decarbonisation actions
welfare economy. Automation education reduce fertility critical infrastructure vulnerable are limited, and ineffective, and
and machine learning enable rates globally. to changing climatic conditions. global temperature has exceeded
the implementation of a global Investment in research and the 2°C target.
6
universal basic income. innovation is high yet focused
C L E A N WAT E R on adaptation.
14
S A N I TAT I O N
2
Vanishing glaciers have left L I F E B E L O W WAT E R
ZERO HUNGER billions of people water insecure. 10 Warmer sea temperatures
Climate change reduces crop Reliance on desalination is REDUCED INEQUALITY disrupt ocean circulation patterns,
yield in the world’s breadbaskets, commonplace globally. The wealth gap has decreased altering global weather systems.
yet agricultural technology and due to effective development Ocean acidification degrades
GMOs improve crop resilience. strategies, yet persistence of the northern fisheries.
7
Global hunger and food deserts extractive economy hurts the
have declined. AFFORDABLE AND most marginalised.
CLE AN ENERGY 15
Reliance on fossil fuels is LIFE ON LAND
3 11
sustained yet renewables Tropical forest cover has been
G O O D H E A LT H A N D continue to increase in the share S U S TA I N A B L E C I T I E S reduced to 3% of what it would be
WELL-BEING of generation. Advances in oil AND COMMUNITIES without human destruction.
Advances in medicine have recovery technology Government spending on housing
increased life expectancy to expand reserves. and city services is high, yet
76 years and decreased infant extreme weather events impact 16
mortality, yet extreme service provision. PEACE, JUSTICE AND
weather takes many lives, 8 STRONG INSTITUTIONS
particularly in the Global South. DECENT WORK AND 65% of governments are
ECONOMIC GROWTH 12 democratically elected. Civil
Job security is high and RESPONSIBLE liberties and freedom of press are
4 employment levels are healthy. CONSUMPTION AND by and large upheld.
Q U A L I T Y E D U C AT I O N People decide if and how PRODUCTION
Education levels increase globally they work. Economies are
due to increased spending. 90% consumption-based. 17
of adults’ complete secondary PA RTN E R S H I PS FO R
education and 25% pursue tertiary. THE GOALS
Interstate conflict is low due to
global economic interdependence.
International institutions have
limited influence.
58 2050 SCENARIOS
DECLINED IMPROVED
59
2050 SCENARIOS
Comparisons
60 2050 SCENARIOS
9.6bn 9.5bn 9.8bn 9.9bn
global population global population global population global population
low wealth gap high wealth gap high wealth gap low wealth gap
61
62 2050 SCENARIOS
2050 SCENARIOS
Conclusion
63
CONTRIBUTORS M E D I A I N S P I R AT I O N
Andy Sheppard POST ANTHROPOCENE
Anne Kovachevich Metropolis (1927)
Annie Gibbons Soylent Green (1973)
Chris Furneaux Food Inc. (2008)
Chris Luebkeman 2081 (2009)
Christina Lumsden Brave New World (1932)
Devni Acharya
Elisa Magnini GREENTOCRACY
Esme Stallard Ecotopia: The Notebooks
Francesca Birks and Reports of William
Francesco Pizzutilo Weston (1975)
Gereon Uerz Island (1962)
Hannes Lagger
Helen Davis EXTINCTION EXPRESS
Heleni Pantelidou Interstellar (1975)
Ian Gardner Mad Max (1979)
Ingrid Chaires Code 46 (2003)
Jackson Kao WALL·E (2008)
Jim Burridge Idiocracy (2006)
Jim Johnson
Jo da Silva HUMANS INC.
Joe Smith The Martian (2015)
Jonelle Simunich Ready Player 1 (2018)
Jorge Barbeito Blade Runner 2019 (2019)
Josef Hargrave
Jules Lipman
Kate Wood
Kim West
Lynne Miles
Marcus Morrell
Martin Shouler
Matthias Geipel
Melissa Ruhl
Nicole Perez
Nigel Tonks
Rainer Zimmann
Rebecca Goldberg
Sarah Gillhespy
Simon Delves
Steven Lloyd
Stuart Cannon
Tim Whitely
Tom Gray
Yannick Lenormand
Zoe Metcalfe
64 2050 SCENARIOS
IMAGE CREDITS
Cover image: David Marcu on Unsplash Arctic background: Adam Excell on Unsplash
p 4-5 Jack Antsey on Unsplash Ocean oil rig: Erik Christensen, Wikimedia Commons, CC BYSA 3.0
p 6-7 Will Turner on Unsplash Farmers: Zhengfan Yang on Unsplash
p 10 Shawn Ang on Unsplash Migrant camp: Al Jazeera English, Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0
p 12-13: © Arup / Brogan Jones Migrants: Joegoauk Goa, Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0
p 14-15 Chuttersnap on Unsplash Brick Road: Alfonso Cenname
p 17 Robert Bye on Unsplash Crop aerial: Alex Wigan on Unsplash
p 18-19 Arctic map: Heraldry, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0
Glacier: James Eades on Unsplash B&W water: Aga Putra on Unsplash
Polar Bear: Brian McMahon on Unsplash China flag: Denelson83, Wikimedia Commons, Public Domain
UNSDG Goal 13: UN Development Group Russia flag: Zscout370, Wikimedia Commons, Public Domain
Netherlands: Darloti Dan on Unsplash Arctic Landscape: Ikocarevmelt on Unsplash
Sand: Andrew Buchanan on Unsplash Desert Landscape: Wolfgang Hasselmann on Unsplash
Indonesia: Ifan Bima on Unsplash Student (left): Laika Notebooks
Crain image: Elvir K on Unsplash Student (right): Yuvraj Singh on Unsplash
Flowers: Laurentiu Iordache on Unsplash Housing structures: Patrick Schneider on Unsplash
Individual Flower: Hector J Rivas on Unsplash Mining: Bart Van Dijk on Unsplash
Rhino: Dylan Mullins on Unsplash Lunar landscape: Nasa, Public Domain
Plastic Patch Art: © Algalita Marine Research and Baby: Chi n Ph on Unsplash
Education and Captain Charles Moore p 44 BBH Singapore on Unsplash
Art viewer: Ioana Cristiana on Unsplash p 48-49: © Arup / Brogan Jones
Child: Zach Vessels on Unsplash p 50-51 Ivan Bandura on Unsplash
p 20 Hendriyan David on Unsplash p 53 Ishan Bandura on Unsplash
p 24-25: © Arup / Brogan Jones p 54-55
p 26-27 Carl Nenzen Loven on Unsplash Solar Panel: Chuttersnap on Unsplash
p 29 Justin Aikin on Unsplash China flag: Denelson83, Wikimedia Commons, Public Domain
p 30-31 Peruvian Workers: Danielle Pereira, Flickr, CC BY 2.0
Plant: Igor Son on Unsplash Resilient Building: Pierre Châtel-Innocenti on Unsplash
Fish: Marcel van der Hoek, Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0 Mozambique Food Crisis: AMISOM Public Information, Flickr, Public
Bread icon: Teuku Syahrizal, Noun Project Domain
Food icon: Maxim Kulikov, Noun Project Food Imports: DVIDSHUB, Flickr, CC BY 2.0
Water / fruit icon: Atif Arshad, Noun Project Imports: Jeffrey Blum on Unsplash
Work garage: Samuel Zeller on Unsplash Fruit truck: Fikri Rasyid on Unsplash
Teleconference screen: Format, Pexels Worker conditions: Goutam Ganguly on Unsplash
London: Marcin Nowak on Unsplash Background city: ASaber91, Flickr, CC BY 2.0
Hong Kong: Yun Xu on Unsplash City underwater: Fineas Anton on Unsplash
Los Angeles: Pedro Marroquin on Unsplash Water: Matteo Bernardi on Unsplash
B&W building: Carl Nenzen Loven on Unsplash Russia flag: Zscout370, Wikimedia Commons, Public Domain
Additional plants: Josh Calabrese on Unsplash Thermal Earth Image: NASA / Goddard, Public Domain
Marine preserve (left): Bastian Pudill p 56 Eduardo Dutra on Unsplash
Marin preserve (right): Ant Rozentsky p 62 © wmaster890
GCX HQ: Tiomothy Swope on Unsplash Location: Alfredo @ iconsalfredo.com, Noun Project
Rally: Joe Frazier Photo, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0
Rally leader: Vlad Tchompalov on Unsplash
p 32 Ty Williams on Unsplash
p 36-37 © Arup / Brogan Jones
p 38-39 Erik Odiin on Unsplash
p 41 Sebastian Pichler on Unsplash
p 42-43
Background city: Sophai Valkova
Geodome: Matthieu Joannon on Unsplash
Seedlings: Andrej Lisakov on Unsplash
Individual Plant: Roman Synkevy on Unsplash
65
P U B L I C AT I O N S
Visit www.arup.com/ageingcommunities
DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Drivers of Change investigates the key global issues and trends driving change
across the world. The Drivers of Change app examines the top 25 drivers of change
impacting our societies and markets across 10 topics, from climate change to
urbanisation to poverty.
Visit www.driversofchange.com
Visit www.arup.com/rethinking-timber-buildings
Visit www.arup.com/citiesalive
66 2050 SCENARIOS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Authors
Stephanie Schemel
Jonelle Simunich
Chris Luebkeman
Adam Ozinsky
Riley McCullough
Lola Bushnell
Project Management
Jonelle Simunich
Copy Editors
Jennifer Greitschus
Tom Butler
Designers
Mark Pearsall
Emily Clements
Eleanor Tomlinson
Billy Searle
Illustrations produced by
Brogan Jones
ABOUT ARUP
Arup is the creative force at the heart of many of the world’s most prominent projects
in the built environment and across industry. We offer a broad range of professional
services that combine to make a difference to our clients and the communities in
which we work.
We are truly global. From 80 offices in 35 countries our 15,000 planners, designers,
engineers and consultants deliver innovative projects across the world with creativity
and passion.
Founded in 1946 with an enduring set of values, our unique trust ownership fosters
a distinctive culture and an intellectual independence that encourages collaborative
working. This is reflected in everything we do, allowing us to develop meaningful
ideas, help shape agendas and deliver results that frequently surpass the
expectations of our clients.
The people at Arup are driven to find a better way and to deliver better solutions for
our clients.
67
We live in a world characterised by increasing complexity and uncertainty. Climate change, biodiversity loss
and resource scarcity threaten future generations. Meanwhile, digital technology, urbanisation and changing
demographics will continue to transform communities, business and economies. The future will be determined
by our ability to address today’s environmental challenges and social changes and to meet the needs of nearly ten
billion people by 2050.
2050 Scenarios: Four plausible futures presents visions for the world in 2050 to inform discussions on future
social, technological, economic and environmental conditions. The scenarios are intended to develop a vocabulary
and framework to help us envision different plausible futures. They help to identify and visualise what is worth
striving for and what to avoid. Ultimately, they are intended to challenge assumptions and inform key decisions on
the design and planning of the built environment.