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Learning objectives
At the end of this chapter, and having completed the essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
• analyse optimal physical and financial investment in perfect capital
markets and derive the Fisher separation result
• justify the use of the NPV rules via Fisher separation
• compute present and future values of cash-flow streams and appraise
projects using the NPV rule
• evaluate the NPV rule in relation to other commonly used evaluation
criteria
• value stocks and bonds via NPV.
Essential reading
Grinblatt, M. and S. Titman Financial Markets and Corporate Strategy. (Boston,
Mass.; London: McGraw-Hill, 2002) Chapter 10.
Further reading
Brealey, R., S. Myers and F. Allen Principles of Corporate Finance. (Boston,
Mass.; London: McGraw-Hill, 2008) Chapters 2, 3, 5, 6 and 7.
Copeland, T. and J. Weston Financial Theory and Corporate Policy. (Reading,
Mass.; Wokingham: Addison-Wesley, 2005) Chapters 1 and 2.
Roll, R. ‘A Critique of the Asset Pricing Theory’s Texts. Part 1: On Past and
Potential Testability of the Theory’, Journal of Financial Economics 4(2)
1977, pp.129–76.
Overview
In this chapter we present the basics of the present-value methodology
for the valuation of investment projects. The chapter develops the net
present-value (NPV) technique before presenting a comparison with the
other project evaluation criteria that are common in practice. We will also
discuss the optimality of NPV and give a number of extensive examples.
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Introduction
Let us begin by defining how we are going to think about a firm in this
chapter. For the purposes of this chapter, we will consider a firm to be a
package of investment projects. The key question, therefore, is how do the
firm’s shareholders or managers decide on which investment projects to
undertake and which to discard? Developing the tools that should be used
for project evaluation is the emphasis of this chapter.
It may seem, at this point, that our definition of the firm is rather limited.
It is clear that, in only examining the investment operations of the firm,
we are ignoring a number of potentially important firm characteristics.
In particular, we have made no reference to the financial structure or
decisions of the firm (i.e. its capital structure, borrowing or lending
activities, or dividend policy). The first part of this chapter presents what
is known as the Fisher separation theorem. What follows is a statement
of the theorem. This theorem allows us to say the following: under
certain conditions (which will be presented in the following section), the
shareholders can delegate to the management the task of choosing which
projects to undertake (i.e. determining the optimal package of investment
projects), whereas they themselves determine the optimal financial
decisions. Hence, the theory implies that the investment and financing
choices can be completely disconnected from each other and justifies our
limited definition of the firm for the time being.
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Chapter 1: Present-value calculations and the valuation of physical investment projects
Figure 1.1
The financial investment allows firms to borrow or lend unlimited
amounts at rate r. Assuming that the firm undertakes no physical
investment, we can define the firm’s consumption opportunities quite
easily. Assume the firm neither borrows nor lends. This implies that
current consumption (c0) must be identically m, whereas period 1
consumption (c1) is zero. Alternatively the firm could lend all of its funds.
This leads to c0 being zero and c1 = (1 + r) m. The relationship between
period 0 and period 1 consumption is therefore given as below:
c1 = (1 + r)(m – c0 ). (1.1)
This implies that the curve which represents capital market investments is
a straight line with slope –(1+r). This curve is labeled CML on Figure 1.2.
Again, we have on Figure 1.2 plotted the optimal financial investments for
two different sets of preferences (assuming that no physical investment is
undertaken).
Figure 1.2
Now we can proceed to analyse optimal decision-making when firms
invest in both financial and physical assets. Assume the firm is at the
beginning of period 0 and trying to decide on its investment plan. It is
clear that, to maximise firm value, the projects undertaken should be those
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with the greatest return. Knowing that the return on financial investment
is always (1+r), the firm will first invest in all physical investment
projects with returns greater than (1+r ). These are those projects on the
production possibility frontier (PPF) between points m and I on Figure
1.3.1 Projects above I on the PPF have returns that are dominated by the 1
The absolute value of
return from financial investment. the slope of the PPF can
be equated with the
Hence the firm physically invests up to point I. Note that, at this point, return on physical
we have not mentioned the firm’s preferences over period 0 and period investment. For all points
1 consumption. Hence, the decision to physically invest to I will be taken below I on the PPF, this
by all firms regardless of the preferences of their owners. Preferences slope exceeds that of
the capital market line
come into play when we consider what financial investments should be
and hence defines the
undertaken. set of desirable physical
The firm’s physical investment policy takes it to point I, from where it can investment projects.
borrow or lend on the capital market. Borrowing will move the firm to
the south-east along a line starting at I and with slope –(1+r); lending will
take the firm north-west along a similarly sloped line. Two possible optima
are shown on Figure 1.3. The optimum at point X is that for a firm whose
owners prefer period 1 consumption relative to period 0 consumption (and
have hence lent on the capital market), whereas a firm locating at Y has
borrowed, as its owners prefer date 0 to date 1 consumption.
Figure 1.3 demonstrates the key insight of Fisher separation. All firms,
regardless of preferences, will have the same optimal physical investment
policy, investing to the point where the PPF and capital market line are
tangent. Preferences then dictate the firm’s borrowing or lending policy
and shift the optimum along the capital market line. The implication of
this is that, as it is physical investment that alters firm value, all agents
(i.e. regardless of preferences) agree on the physical investment policy that
will maximise firm value. More specifically, the shareholders of the firm
can delegate choice of investment policy to a manager whose preferences
may differ from their own, while controlling financial investment policy in
order to suit their preferences.
Figure 1.3
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Chapter 1: Present-value calculations and the valuation of physical investment projects
The prior objective is the net present-value rule for project appraisal. It
says that an optimal physical investment policy maximises the difference
between investment proceeds divided by one plus the interest rate and the
investment cost. Here, the term ‘optimal’ is being defined as that which leads
to maximisation of shareholder utility. We will discuss the NPV rule more
fully (and for cases involving more than one time period) later in this chapter.
The assumption of perfect capital markets is vital for our Fisher separation
results to hold. We have assumed that borrowing and lending occur at the
same rate and are unrestricted in amount and that there are no transaction
costs associated with the use of the capital market. However, in practical
situations, these conditions are unlikely to be met. A particular example is
given in Figure 1.4. Here we have assumed that the rate at which borrowing
occurs is greater than the rate of interest paid on lending (as the real world
would dictate). Figure 1.3 shows that there are now two points at which the
capital market lines and the production opportunities frontier are tangential.
This then implies that agents with different preferences will choose differing
physical investment decisions and, therefore, Fisher separation breaks down.
Figure 1.4
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Chapter 1: Present-value calculations and the valuation of physical investment projects
You can see the present and future value concepts pictured in Figure 1.2.
If you recall, Figure 1.2 just plots the CML for a given level of initial funds
(m) assuming no funds are to be received in the future. The future value
of this amount of money is simply the vertical intercept of the CML (i.e.
m(1+r)), and obviously the present value of m(1+r) is just m.
The present and future value concepts are straightforwardly extended
to cover more than one period. Assume an annual compound interest rate
of r. The present value of $100 to be received in k year’s time is:
Activity
Below, there are a few applications of the present and future value concepts. You should
attempt to verify that you can replicate the calculations given below.
Assume a compound borrowing and lending rate of 10 per cent annually.
a. The present value of $2,000 to be received in three years time is $1,502.63.
b. The present value of $500 to be received in five years time is $310.46.
c. The future value of $6,000 evaluated four years hence is $8,784.60.
d. The future value of $250 evaluated 10 years hence is $648.44.
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Once we have calculated the NPV, what should we do? Clearly, if the NPV
is positive, it implies that the present value of receipts exceeds the present
value of payments. Hence, the project generates revenues that outweigh its
costs and should therefore be accepted. If the NPV is negative the project
should be rejected, and if it is zero the firm will be indifferent between
accepting and rejecting the project.
This gives a very straightforward method for project evaluation. Compute
the NPV of the project (which is a simple calculation), and if it is greater
than zero, the project is acceptable.
Example
Consider a manufacturing firm, which is contemplating the purchase of a new piece of
plant. The rate of interest relevant to the firm is 10 per cent. The purchase price is £1,000.
If purchased, the machine will last for three years and in each year generate extra revenue
equivalent to £750. The resale value of the machine at the end of its lifetime is zero. The
NPV of this project is:
Activity
Assume an interest rate of 5 per cent. Compute the NPV of each of the following projects,
and state whether each project should be accepted or not.
•• Project A has an immediate cost of $5,000, generates $1,000 for each of the next
six years and zero thereafter.
•• Project B costs £1,000 immediately, generates cash flows of £600 in year 1,
£300 in year 2 and £300 in year 3.
•• Project C costs ¥10,000 and generates ¥6,000 in year 1. Over the following years,
the cash flows decline by ¥2,000 each year, until the cash flow reaches zero.
•• Project D costs £1,500 immediately. In year 1 it generates £1,000. In year 2 there
is a further cost of £2,000. In years 3, 4 and 5 the project generates revenues of
£1,500 per annum.
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Chapter 1: Present-value calculations and the valuation of physical investment projects
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92 Corporate finance
Figure 1.5
Calculation of the IRR need not be straightforward. Rearranging equation
1.7 shows us that the IRR is a solution to a kth order polynomial in r.
In general, the solution must be found by some iterative process, for
example, a (progressively finer) grid search method. This also points to
a first weakness of the IRR approach; as the solution to a polynomial,
the IRR may not be unique. Several different rates of return might satisfy
equation 1.7; in this case, which one should be used as the IRR? Figure 1.6
gives a graphical example of this case.
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Chapter 1: Present-value calculations and the valuation of physical investment projects
Figure 1.6
The graphical approach can also be used to illustrate another weakness
of the IRR rule. Consider a firm that is faced with a choice between two
mutually exclusive investment projects (A and B). The locus of NPV-rate of
return pairings for each of these projects is given on Figure 1.7.
The first thing to note from the figure is that the IRR of project A
exceeds that of B. Also, both IRRs exceed the hurdle rate, r*. Hence,
both projects are acceptable but, using the IRR rule, one would choose
project A as its IRR is greatest. However, if we assume the hurdle rate is
the true opportunity cost of capital (which should be employed in an NPV
calculation), then Figure 1.7 indicates that the NPV of project B exceeds
that of project A. Hence, in the evaluation of mutually exclusive projects,
use of the IRR rule may lead to choices that do not maximise expected
shareholder wealth.
Figure 1.7
The lesson of this section is therefore as follows. The most commonly
used alternative project evaluation criteria to the NPV rule can lead to
poor decisions being made under some circumstances. By contrast, NPV
performs well under all circumstances and thus should be employed.
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Stocks
Consider holding a common equity share from a given corporation. To
what does this equity share entitle the holder? Aside from issues such as
voting rights, the share simply delivers a stream of future dividends to
the holder. Assume that we are currently at time t, that the corporation is
infinitely long-lived (such that the stream of dividends goes on forever)
and that we denote the dividend to be paid at time t+i by Dt+i. Also
assume that dividends are paid annually. Denoting the required annual
rate of return on this equity share to be re, then a present value argument
would dictate that the share price (P) should be defined by the following
formula:
∞ D
P= ∑ (1 + rt+i) i . (1.8)
i =1 e
re = D0 ( 1 + ) + g.
g
(1.10)
P
The first term in 1.10 is the expected dividend yield on the stock, and the
second is expected dividend growth. Hence, with empirical estimates of
the previous two quantities, we can easily calculate the required rate of
return on any equity share.
Activity
Attempt the following questions:
1. An investor is considering buying a certain equity share. The stock has just paid
a dividend of £0.50, and both the investor and the market expect the future
dividend to be precisely at this level forever. The required rate of return on
similar equities is 8 per cent. What price should the investor be prepared to pay
for a single equity share?
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Chapter 1: Present-value calculations and the valuation of physical investment projects
2. A stock has just paid a dividend of $0.25. Dividends are expected to grow at
a constant annual rate of 5 per cent. The required rate of return on the share
is 10 per cent. Calculate the price of the stock.
3. A single share of XYZ Corporation is priced at $25. Dividends are expected
to grow at a rate of 8 per cent, and the dividend just paid was $0.50. What is
the required rate of return on the stock?
Bonds
In principle, bonds are just as easy to value.
• A discount or zero coupon bond is an instrument that promises
to pay the bearer a given sum (known as the principal) at the end of
the instrument’s lifetime. For example, a simple five-year discount bond
might pay the bearer $1,000 after five years have elapsed.
• Slightly more complex instruments are coupon bonds. These not
only repay the principal at the end of the term but in the interim entitle
the bearer to coupon payments that are a specified percentage of
the principal. Assuming annual coupon payments, a three-year bond
with principal of £100 and coupon rate of 8 per cent will give annual
payments of £8, £8 and £108 in years 1, 2 and 3.
In more general terms, assuming the coupon rate is c, the principal is P
and the required annual rate of return on this type of bond is rb, the price
of the bond can be written as:4 4
In our notation a
coupon rate of 12
cP + p ( 1 + c) .
k –1
PB = ∑ (1 + rb ) i (1 + rb ) k
(1.11) per cent, for example,
i =1 implies that c = 0.12;
Note that it is straightforward to value discount bonds in this framework the discount rate used
here, rb, is called the
by setting c to zero.
yield to maturity of the
bond.
Activity
Using the previous formula, value a seven-year bond with principal $1,000, annual
coupon rate of 5 per cent and required annual rate of return of 12 per cent.
(Hint: the use of a set of annuity tables might help.)
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92 Corporate finance
Key terms
capital market line (CML)
consumption
Fisher separation theorem
Gordon growth model
indifference curve
internal rate of return (IRR) criterion
investment policy
net present value rule
payback rule
production opportunity frontier (POF)
production possibility frontier (PPF)
time value of money
utility function
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