Arab J Geosci (2016) 9: 292
DOI 10.1007/s12517-016-2308-y
ORIGINAL PAPER
Landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS and weighted overlay
method: a case study from NW Himalayas, Pakistan
Muhammad Basharat 1 & Hamid Raza Shah 1 & Nasir Hameed 2
Received: 14 June 2015 / Accepted: 5 January 2016 / Published online: 31 March 2016
# Saudi Society for Geosciences 2016
Abstract Landslide susceptibility map is very important for
engineers, geologist, and land use planner for prevention and
mitigation of landslide hazard in the area. This paper presents
landslide susceptibility analysis for the part of tehsil Balakot,
NW Himalayas, Pakistan. In this study, topographical, geo-
logical and remote sensing data were collected and processed
using geographic information system (GIS) and ERDAS
Imagine software. Nine influential causative factors for land-
slide occurrence were used for this purpose. The causative
factors that influence the landslide occurrence include slope,
aspect, curvature, elevation, lithology, land cover, faults, road
network, and hydrology. These factors were analyzed for con-
struction of thematic data layers. Numerical weight for each
factor was assigned by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
using Pairwise Comparison Method. The landslide suscepti-
bility indices were derived using weighted overlay method
(WOM). As a result, landslide susceptibility map was pro-
duced in GIS. The susceptibility map classified the study area
into very high, high, moderate, and low susceptible zones. The
results of the susceptibility mapping were verified using the
landslide occurrence. The verification results revealed 76 %
accuracy. The validated results showed good agreement be-
tween landslide occurrence and produced susceptibility map
of the area. Susceptibility map prepared by weighted overlay
* Muhammad Basharat
basharatgeo@yahoo.com
1
Institute of Geology, University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir,
Muzaffarabad 13100, Pakistan
2
Planning & Development Department, Azad Jammu and Kashmir,
Muzaffarabad 13100, Pakistan
method is validated for landslide hazard, mitigations, and land
use planning for future construction in the area.
Keywords Landslide susceptibility . GIS . Analytic hierarchy
process . Weighted overlay method
Introduction
Throughout the world, landslide is recognized as a disaster in
mountainous region and responsible for huge social and eco-
nomic losses. Particularly, earthquake-induced landslides are
significant threats for the inhabitants of mountain areas in
terms of casualties, infrastructure damages, and destruction
of property (Keefer 1984). For instance, 2005 Kashmir earth-
quake and 2008 Wenchuan earthquake have triggered thou-
sands of landslides in the vast area (Sato et al. 2007; Owen et
al. 2008; Dai et al. 2001; Xu et al. 2014; Basharat et al. 2014).
The earthquake-induced landslides caused large number of
fatalities and damages (Petley et al. 2006; Dai et al. 2011;
Gorum et al. 2011).
In developing countries like Pakistan, landslides pose a
significant threat for the mountain areas of northern
Pakistan. Particularly, the young Himalayan mountain in
Pakistan is well recognized due to their inherently unstable
nature of rocks. The active seismic zones, high steep slopes,
unfavorable geological conditions, and monsoon rainfall
make the northwestern part of Himalayas one of the most
hazard-prone areas in the world. During the 2005 Kashmir
earthquake, a large number of landslides were triggered in
the northern part of Pakistan and Kashmir region (Owen et
al. 2008; Kamp et al. 2008; Basharat and Rohn 2015). The
death tolls of 26,000 people were reported directly or indirect-
ly associated with 2005 Kashmir earthquake-induced land-
slides (Petley et al. 2005). The Hattian Bala rock avalanche
292 Page 2 of 19
was the largest landslide related with this earthquake that cre-
ated two landslide dams and resulted 595 fatalities (Dunning
et al. 2007; Basharat et al. 2012). Moreover, Balakot and its
surrounding areas were badly affected due to massive land-
slides and caused huge damages in terms of loss of life and
communication link (Jadoon et al. 2015).
To minimize the risk associated with landslide hazard,
modern and emerging techniques like high-resolution sat-
ellite data, digital elevation model (DEM) and geographic
information system (GIS) are very important in determin-
ing the landslide susceptibility map, hazard analysis, and
risk assessment. Despite their importance, the initial step
for landslide mitigation and management is preparation
and compilation of landslide inventory. The landslide in-
ventory provided the systematic information regarding the
locations, type, movement, and distribution of landslide in
Fig. 1 Location map of the study area, NW Himalayas, Pakistan
Arab J Geosci (2016) 9: 292
the area (Spiker and Gori 2000; Chacon et al. 2006).
Visual interpretation of high-resolution satellite data and
application of DEM are used for developing landslide
inventory maps. Furthermore, geospatial tool had great
importance for preparation of digital database and
updating information regarding landslides. After prepara-
tion of the landslide inventory, the second step is the
production of landslide susceptibility map that includes
the factors affecting the landslide distribution such as
slope, elevation, land cover, aspect, and lithology.
Several research works all around the world regarding
the landslide susceptibility and hazard zonation were car-
ried out. Different approaches were used by different re-
searchers (Nandi and Shakoor 2010; Feizizadeh and
Blaschke 2013; Schleier et al. 2013; Ahmed et al. 2014).
The validity of susceptibility maps was based on the
Arab J Geosci (2016) 9: 292 Page 3 of 19 292

quality of presented data, the techniques and methodology
adopted, and working environment during the construc-
tion of the model. The process of construction of the the-
matic layers involves several qualitative and quantative
approaches (e.g., Soeters and van Westen, 1996; Aleotti
and Chowdhury 1999; Guzzetti et al. 1999). Initially, re-
searchers produced susceptibility maps based on qualita-
tive overlaying of topographical and geological attribute
to landslide inventories (Nielsen et al. 1997). Later, more
sophisticated and modern techniques such as bivariate and
multivariate statistical methods, logistic regression analy-
sis, artificial neural network (ANN), and Analytic
Hierarchy Process (AHP) were used for susceptibility
mapping (e.g. Feizizadeh and Blaschke 2013; Ahmed,
2014). The main difference among these approaches de-
pends on the given value of numerical weight for the

Fig. 2 Tectonic map showing the

main structural features in the
northwestern part of Himalayas
(compiled and modified after
Calkins et al. 1975; Baig and
Lawrence 1987; Basharat et al.
2014)
292 Page 4 of 19
causative factors of landslides. However, high-resolution
satellite data and GIS have also gained significant impor-
tance for construction of thematic data layers used to
produce the valid susceptibility mapping. The produc-
tion of landslide susceptibility map describes the prone
area where landslide may occur in the future. Therefore,
the susceptibility maps of the area are very important
for effective management of landslide hazards and fu-
ture planning.
This paper presents landslide susceptibility analysis for
the part of tehsil Balakot, NW Himalayas, Pakistan, in
order to reduce the landslide damages in the future (Fig.
1). The study area was selected because it was one of the
worst landslide-affected areas during and after the 2005
Kashmir earthquake. Moreover, a large extent of landslide
occurrence in this area was undocumented. This research
Fig. 3 Geological map of the
study area (compiled and
modified after GSP)
Arab J Geosci (2016) 9: 292
was an attempt to produce landslide susceptibility map
and indicate the hazard zones that are susceptible for land-
slides in the future.
Study area
Geographically, the study area is located between latitude 34°
33′ 1″ N and longitude 73° 20′ 60″ E and comprises an area
about 740 km2 (Fig. 1). Tectonically, the area is prone for
landslides due to active tectonics, high seismicity, complex
geology, and steep topography. Topographic features of the
area are mainly mountainous, undulated terrain, and high re-
lief. The shallow landslides on steep slopes are the common
phenomena in the area.
Arab J Geosci (2016) 9: 292
The relief of the area ranges between 500 and 4000 m. In
general, area has variable climatic conditions. The tempera-
ture ranges between −1 and 43 °C. Towards north in Kaghan
Valley, weather is sewer cold and receives heavy snowfall on
the mountains in winter. On the other hand, weather is very
pleasant in summer. The average rainfall of the area is between
1000 and 2000 mm per year.
The Kunhar River is the main river which starts from lake
Saif-ul-Malook and flows from northwest to southeast. It
merges with Jhelum River just about 10 km at Rara from the
Muzaffarabad, capital of Pakistani Administrated Kashmir
(PAK). Besides several small and large streams, there is a
major river Kunhar that drains and irrigates the major part of
the land.
Tectonically, Balakot and its surrounding area are a
part of the NW Himalayan fold and thrust belt (Kazmi
and Jan 1997). Western Himalayas marks a bend in the
Himalayan trend termed as the Western Syntaxis and
consists of two syntaxial bends (Wadia 1957). One in
the north, involving Higher Himalayas and the Kohistan
Block, is termed as Nanga Parbat Syntaxis (NPS); the
other one in the southern bend, involving the Lesser
and the Sub Himalayas, is termed as Hazara-Kashmir
Syntaxis (HKS; Calkins et al. 1975). The study area en-
compasses the southern bend (HKS) of western
Himalayas.
Fig. 4 Flow chart showing the steps involved before and after preparing the final product of susceptibility map
Page 5 of 19 292
The HKS is a NW-trending regional scale antiformal
structure that folds the Lesser and Sub Himalayas and also
to some extent the Higher Himalayas. Unlike the anti-
clines, where younger rocks lie in the limb and the older
rocks lie in the core. But the HKS contains the youngest
rocks in the core and older rocks enclose around the
limbs. All major thrusts including Main Boundary
Thrust (MBT), Panjal Thrust (PT), and Main central
Thrust (MCT) are refolded by this structure (Fig. 2).
The MBT, PT, Jhelum Fault (JF), and Muzaffarabad
Fault (MF) are significant active tectonic features in the
core of HKS (Baig and Lawrence 1987). The thrust zone
between MBT and PT is narrow along the eastern limb
and wider in the western limb of HKS (Baig and
Lawrence 1987).
Geologically, the area is situated close to the MBT
a nd P T a n d f al l s in th e d o m a i n o f t he H K S .
Stratigraphy of the area shows rock units having an
important geological control on the mass movement ac-
tivities. Along HKS, the Panjal Formation is
sandwiched between the MBT and PT. The Cambrian
Panjal Formation has been thrusted over the Miocene
Murree Formation along the MBT (Khan 1994). At
the eastern limb of HKS, the PT marks tectonic bound-
ary between Precambrian Tanol Formation and the
Carboniferous-Triassic Panjal Formation. The Cambrian
292 Page 6 of 19 Arab J Geosci (2016) 9: 292

Mansehra Granite is intruded into the Tanol Formation. Precambrian Hazara Formation. Murree, Kuldana, and
On the other side along the western limb of the HKS, the PT Muzaffarabad formations lie in the core of the HKS (Calkins
separates the Precambrian Tanol Formation from the et al. 1975; Bossart et al. 1988; Greco 1989; Baig and Snee

a
b

c d

Fig. 5 Thematic layers used for landslide susceptibility mapping, a slope map layer, b aspect map layer, c curvature map layer, d elevation map layer
Arab J Geosci (2016) 9: 292 Page 7 of 19 292

1995). The rock sequence of the presented study area in- Carboniferous-Triassic Panjal Formation, Paleocene-
cludes the Precambrian Hazara and Tanol formations, Eocene Kuldana Formation, and Early Miocene Murree
Cambrian Muzaffarabad Formation and Mansehra Granite, Formation (Fig. 3).

a b

c d

Fig. 6 Map layer used for landslide susceptibility mapping, a fault buffer layer, b road buffer layer, c hydrology buffer layer, d lithological units map layer
292 Page 8 of 19
Landslide causes and associated factors
Various causes and factors involved in triggering landslides
include morphological, topographical, and geological aspects.
The occurrence of landslide differs from location to location.
Landslides triggered by the 2005 Kashmir earthquake have
the highest rate of occurrence in Balakot and its surrounding
areas (Kamp et al. 2008). An adverse geologic structure, ac-
tive tectonics, severe climatic conditions, and high seismicity
may affect the slope stability in the area. These causal factors
make the area prone to landslides. The landslides in the study
area lie mainly on the mountain slopes of 20° to 60° and have
a width of 10 to 500 m. They are categorized as rock fall,
debris fall, rock slide, and debris slide (Owen et al. 2008).
The size varies from few cubic meters to thousands of cubic
meters. The majority of landslides are shallow failure of steep
slopes. The deep-seated landslides are far less frequent than
shallow slides (Basharat et al. 2014).
In the present study, nine landslides associated control-
ling factors such as land use, slope, aspect, elevation,
curvature, distance from fault, hydrology, road network,
and lithology were considered for landslide susceptibility
mapping. Land use/land cover and steep slopes are con-
sidered as important factors for the initiation of landslides
along with the major driving forces like earthquake and
rainfall. The landslide occurrence in areas at different el-
evation and the distance from the road and drainages were
also considered as controlling factors due to undercutting
action of road or drainages that may affect the stability of
slopes. The distance from the fault and lithology are also
an important causal factor for triggering landslides and
landscape evolution. Both factors play an important role
in the preparation of landslide susceptibility map.
Materials and methods
Data sources and material
To develop landslide susceptibility map, a variety of research
techniques were used. The satellite imageries of SPOT-5
(2.5 m resolution), acquired immediately after the 2005
Kashmir earthquake and Google Earth satellite imageries
2013, were used for the identification of the landslides in the
area. The landslides were identified doing the visual interpre-
tation of satellite images by using criteria based on where
vegetation cover was removed. This criterion is helpful for
visual interpretations or detection of landslides using satellite
imageries. Nine causative factors such as slope, aspect, curva-
ture, elevation, lithology, landcover, faults, road network, and
hydrology related to the occurrence of landslides were select-
ed to produce landslide susceptibility map. Most variables like
slope, aspect, curvature, and elevation were derived from the
Arab J Geosci (2016) 9: 292
Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection
Radiometer (ASTER)-based DEM (30 m × 30) using
ArcGIS 10.1. Moreover, these maps were classified into dif-
ferent classes according to the requirement using natural
breaks (Jenks) method. Parameters not obtained from the re-
mote sensing data and DEM like geology, fault, road network,
and hydrology were taken by compilation of a previous work
done (Hussain et al. 2004; Kaneda et al. 2008). All maps were
georeferenced and projected Universal Transverse Mercator
(UTM-43N) using World Geodetic System (WGS). Field
visits were conducted for ground truth of landslide inventory,
prepared from satellite imageries. The processes of producing
landslide susceptibility map were followed by several qualita-
tive and quantitative approaches. Several steps were taken
before and after preparing the final product of susceptibility
map as shown in Fig. 4.
Construction of thematic maps
Slope, aspect, curvature, and elevation maps were classified
into different classes using natural breaks method in GIS
(Fig. 5). The faults, road, drainage, and water body layers
were digitized from topographic sheet obtained from GSP
on 1:50,000 scale. The proximity to fault, road, stream, and
river was created using 50-m buffer zone. The distance buff-
ering from all these layers were calculated using BEuclidean
distance^ technique in GIS. It gives the distance for each cell
in the raster to the closest source (Fig. 6). The Euclidean dis-
tance tools give information according to Euclidean or
straight-line distance. Euclidean distance is calculated from
the center of the source cell to the centre of each of the sur-
rounding cells.
Lithological map of the study area was compiled (after
Hussain et al. 2004 and Kaneda et al. 2008) for this research
work (Fig. 6d). The vector layer of lithological map was con-
verted to raster layer for compatibility to other rasters in ac-
cordance to the requirement of the weighted overlay tool pro-
vided in the ArcGIS software.
Table 1 Pairwise
comparison matrix scale Importance Definition
(Saaty 2008)
1 Equal importance
2 Weak
3 Moderate importance
4 Moderate plus
5 Strong importance
6 Strong plus
7 Very strong
8 Very very strong
9 Extreme importance
Arab J Geosci (2016) 9: 292 Page 9 of 19 292

Reclassify or
Define the
Determine
significant
transform the
Weight
the input
Add or
combine
weighted linear combination (WLC). Other methods are
problem data within a Analyze
layers
layer layers the layers purely statistical in nature such as bivariate statistical
analyses (BSA) and the multivariate statistical approach
Fig. 7 Steps involved in weighted overlay method (Source ESRI (MSA; Ayalew et al. 2004). In contrast, the main draw-
ArcMap Help)
back of this method is only failing to assign appropriate
weightage.
Landslide susceptibility mapping technique

In this study, multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) method was
used for landslide susceptibility mapping. MCE is a
decision-making-supportive procedure in order to obtain
a single-composite resultant by using a set of event- con-
trolling parameters (Malczewski 1999). MCE combines
these criteria to build a single composite. A single com-
posite is obtained by assigning weight values to each at-
tribute. The expert opinion, field scenario, local variabil-
ity in geology, and land cover pattern get importance in
this method. There are a number of various methods used
in MCE, some of them qualitative in nature such as the
Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP; Saaty 1990) and
Analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
The AHP is a theory of calculations through pairwise compar-
isons of different factors and based on the expert judgments to
gain priority scales (Saaty 2008). It involves a matrix-based
pairwise comparison of the contributing factors for landslid-
ing. For this study, in a pairwise comparison matrix, each
factor was rated between 1 and 9 against every intersecting
factor, when the factor on the vertical axis was more important
than the factor on the horizontal axis. Conversely, when the
factor on the vertical axis was less important than the factor on
the horizontal axis, the value varies between 1/2 and 1/9

Fig. 8 Map showing landslide

distribution within the study area
292 Page 10 of 19
(Saaty 2008). Both weight values and rating values were
assigned through expert knowledge and field observations
and calculated through pairwise comparison matrix using a
common rating scale. It is also necessary total weight must
be one. Pairwise comparison matrix scale is shown in Table 1.
In order to understand the consistency of judgments, a consis-
tency ratio was also calculated.
Weighted overlay technique
The weighted overlay technique is defined to develop a map
using overlays of several raster layers by giving weight of
each raster layer according to their importance (Saaty, 1990).
Weighted overlay method was used to produce landslide sus-
ceptibility map for this study because it is a reliable technique
for this purpose. Weights are assigned to each raster layer
either externally and internally according to their relative
Fig. 9 Examples of landslide
events in the study area
Arab J Geosci (2016) 9: 292
importance determined by expert opinion. External weight
or weight values mean overall weights of all layers which
must be equal to 100, and internal weights or rating values
are referred to class values. Weight values and rating values of
each event-controlling factors were calculated using AHP. The
steps were involved in weighted overlay method (Fig. 7). All
raster layers were added to weighted overlay tool for suscep-
tibility analysis after assigning weights to the model. Finally,
susceptibility map was obtained through weighted overlay
method using ArcGIS software.
Accuracy assessment
Accuracy assessment is pre-requisite to verify the perfor-
mance of obtained susceptibility map produced by
weighted overlay method. The landslide spatial points
obtained during field surveys were used to judge the
Arab J Geosci (2016) 9: 292 Page 11 of 19 292

accuracy of the map. A spatial analysis between land- a b

35
slide events and susceptibility map was taken into ac-

Landslides %
60 30
25
count for this purpose. The distribution of these land- 50

Landslides %
20
slide events was calculated in all zones of the suscepti- 40 15
10
30
bility map. If the highest number of the landslide events 20
5
0
fall within the high and very high susceptible zones, then 10
0
this would indicate a good agreement; on the other hand, 0-15 15-30 30-45 45-73
if most of the landslide events fall within the low and Slope (degrees) Slope aspect
moderate susceptible zones, then it shows low accuracy
rate. c d

Landslides %
50 50

Landslides %
40
40 30
Landslide inventory map and spatial distribution analysis 30 20
10
20
10
0
0
The landslide inventory map was prepared based on visual concave convex
interpretation of SPOT-5 and Google Earth satellite imageries Slope curvature Elevation (m)
using GIS 10.1 (Fig. 8). A total of 703 landslide events were
identified using satellite imageries covering an area about e f
35
740 km2. Figure 8 shows that landslides were mainly distrib- 16 30

Landslides %
14 25
uted along the fault and hydrology and near the roads.

However, the high concentration of landslides was found
along the fault, followed by steep slope and land cover. The
landslide inventory was not used as a parameter in the con-
struction of susceptibility map of the area. However, this in-
ventory was used for spatial analysis and the verification anal-
ysis of the susceptibility map.
For ground truth verification, the location points of
landslides were collected using the Global Position
System (GPS) device during field visits (Fig. 9). A total
of 140 landslide events distributed within the study area
were verified using landslide inventory map. In order to
judge the accuracy of the landslide inventory map, the
accuracy assessment was calculated by dividing the num-
ber of verified landslide locations from the inventory map
over the total number of landslide locations collected dur-
ing field surveys. Therefore, known locations of land-
slides were compared with landslide inventory map pre-
pared based on remote sensing data. A total of 105 (20 %)
field verified landslides (out of 140) were correctly
matched with the interpreted landslide from remote sens-
ing data. Hence, overall accuracy for the inventory map
was calculated about 75 %.
Landslide inventory map has been used for landslide spa-
tial distribution analysis. Controlling factors including slope
gradient, slope aspect, slope curvature, elevation, distance
from the fault, and lithology show the relationship between
landslide number and area (Fig. 10). The largest number of
landslide events occurred on the slope between 30° and 45°
(54.3 %). The second larger number of landslides was found
on slopes between 15° and 30° (25.4 %), and less landslides
were found on slopes between 45° and 73° (13.51 %)
(Fig. 10a). Most of the landslides were observed on
slope gradient between 15° and 45° (79.7 %). Majority
of the landslides are distributed in southern direction
Landslides %
12 20
10 15
8 10
6
4
5
0
2
0
Distance to fault (m) Geological formations
Fig. 10 Causative controlling factors. a Slope angle; b slope aspect; c
elevation; d slope curvature; e distance from fault; f lithology
(32.7 %), followed by southeast (21.9 %), southwest
(18.9 %), and western directions (11.9 %). On the other
hand, small number of landslides occurred in eastern
(7.2 %), northwestern (3.8 %), northeastern (2.7 %),
and northern directions (0.71 %) (Fig. 10b). It was ob-
served that the convex curvature and concave curvature
range between 49 and 51 % landslides, respectively,
showing a slight difference of landslide densities along
convex and concave curvature surfaces (Fig. 10c). Most
landslide events occurred between 1000- and 1500-m
elevations (42.8 %). About 73 % landslides occurred
at elevation below 2000 m, while 27 % occurred be-
tween 2000- and 4000-m elevations (Fig. 10d).
The analysis of landslide distribution with respect to
distance from fault shows that the number of landslide
decreases with increase in distance from faults. But the
landslide concentration is increasing close to the faults,
showing a decrease in landslide numbers with increase
in distance from the fault (Fig. 10e). The relationship of
lithology with landslide number and area shows that most
of the study area is occupied by Tanol and Murree forma-
tions. Only 12 % of the area is surrounded by Panjal
Formation followed by other formations. High density
(33 %) of landslides occurred in Tanol formation followed
by Murree and Panjal formations, whereas, less landslides
292 Page 12 of 19
occurred within Muzaffarabad, Hazara, Mansehra,
Abbottabad, and Kuldana formations (Fig. 10f).
Land cover map
The land cover map is one of the important controlling
factors for landslide occurrence because mass wasting de-
pends on the type of land. Pre-processing of the acquired
Landsat 8 Satellite image of 17 September 2014 was car-
ried out using built-in tools (Haze & Noise Reduction)
available in ERDAS Imagine software. The resultant at-
mospherically enhanced image augmented relatively bet-
ter visual interpretation. In order to prepare land cover
map, the Landsat8 image of 17 September 2014
(30 m × 30 m) with 10 % clouds was obtained from the
Fig. 11 Map showing the land
cover types
Arab J Geosci (2016) 9: 292
official website of USGS. The map was prepared by using
a supervised classification tool in ERDAS imagine 2013.
A total of six classes were identified representing different
land cover types that include snow land, barren land, for-
est, urban land, water bodies, and grass land (Fig. 11).
In order to achieve good accuracy of land cover map
and resolve some cases of class confusion, recoding and
statistical filtering process were applied in ERDAS imag-
ine 2013. The recoding tool changes the pixel character of
a selected class area permanently into another class pixel.
Each recoded class area was verified through Google
Earth, and new values were inserted to a column. As a
result, an improved land cover map was obtained. The
second step to improve recoded land cover map was the
process of statistical filtering. This process removes the
Arab J Geosci (2016) 9: 292 Page 13 of 19 292

Table 2 Accuracy assessment result for landcover map random points for each class (John et al. 2002). The sec-
Classes Random Correct Incorrect Accuracy % ond step was to compare/verify random points with the
points points points ground truth points. The ground truth points were obtain-
ed from field surveys using GPS device. A total of 120
Snow land 20 15 5 75 points were compared with the classified land cover map
Barren land 20 16 4 80 and an error matrix was generated. About 79 % accuracy
forest 20 19 1 95 of the land cover map was obtained. The results are
Urban land 20 12 8 60 shown in Table 2. Internal class accuracy and overall ac-
Grass land 20 15 5 75 curacy was calculated by dividing the total correct points
Water bodies 20 18 2 90 with the total number of points in a matrix.
Total 120 95 25
Landslide susceptibility map

In order to produce the landslide susceptibility map, it is neces-

salt grain effect hence smoothens the classes to give better
appearance. Majority filter of 3 × 3 was selected to merge
the isolated pixels to their nearest classes.
After the preparation of land cover classes, an accuracy
assessment was done. For accuracy assessment of land
cover map, the first step was to generate 120 points ran-
domly on the classified land cover map, minimum of 20
sary all attributes were constructed and weighted by using AHP
method. Then, assigning the weight and rank values for each
raster layer and their classes was based on expert opinions.
Spatial analysis of each parameter with respect to landslide dis-
tribution and field observations were also considered for expert
judgment. Pairwise comparison matrix for the weight values and
their results are shown in Table 3. A consistency ratio for weight

Table 3 Pairwise comparison matrix, consistency ratio, and weights of each data layers
Aspect North Northeast East Southeast South Southwest West Northwest % Imp

North 1.0 2.55 1

Northeast 3.0 1.0 5.792 2

East 5.0 1.0 1.0 8.143 3

Southeast 7.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 22.42 6

South 9.0 6.0 5.0 1.0 1.0 29.47 7

Southwest 8.0 5.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 1.0 16.56 5

West 5.0 1.0 2.0 0.5 0.3 1.0 1.0 11.07 4

Northwest 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 3.99 1

1000- 1500- 2000- 2500- 3000- 3500- 4000- 4500-

Elevation[m] 0-1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 4858 % Imp

0-1000 1.0 11.2 3

1000-1500 4.0 1.0 28.8 7

1500-2000 3.0 1.0 1.0 22.5 6

2000-2500 1.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 16.1 5

2500-3000 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 7.75 2

3000-3500 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.0 3.69 1

292 Page 14 of 19 Arab J Geosci (2016) 9: 292

Table 3 (continued)
3500-4000 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 5.35 2

4000-4500 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 0.3 1.0 2.55 1

4500-4858 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.14 0.2 0.3 0.25 1.0 1 2.05 1

Slope[°] 0-15 15-30 30-45 45-73 % Imp

0-15 1.0 6.42 2

15-30 5.0 1.0 27.75 6

30-45 7.0 2.0 1.0 53.45 7

45-73 2.0 0.5 0.2 1.0 12.36 5.0

Landcover Snow Barren land Water Urban land Forest Grass land % Imp

Snow 1 4.2 2

Barren land 5 1 40.1 8

Water 0.5 0.14 1 2.2 1

Urban land 3 0.33 4 1 17.1 4

Forest 0.5 0.25 3 0.5 1 9.1 2

Grassland 4 0.5 5 2 3 1 27.3 5

Lithological

Units Abbottabad Hazara Kuldana Mansehra Murree Muzaffarabad Panjal Tanol % Imp

Abbottabad 1.0 3.59 4

Hazara 4.0 1.0 11.39 5

Kuldana 1.0 0.2 1.0 2.75 1

Mansehra 2.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 7.56 5

Murree 7.0 4.0 9.0 5.0 1.0 30.1 8

Muzaffarabad 6.0 2.0 7.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 22.91 7

Panjal 1.0 0.5 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.2 1.0 4.97 5

Tanol 5.0 1.0 6.0 2.0 0.5 1.0 4.0 1.0 16.68 5.0

values was calculated by using a methodology given by Saaty found less than 0.10 (Table 3). It shows that assigned weights
(1990). For this study, the calculated CR for all the cases was were appropriate and assessments were reliable.
Arab J Geosci (2016) 9: 292 Page 15 of 19 292

Table 4 Pairwise comparison matrix, factor weights, and consistency ratio of the thematic data layers

Attribute Aspect Elevation Faults Lithology Land cover Hydrology Roads Slope Curvature Weights

Aspect 1.0 0.0264

Elevation 2.0 1.0 0.0377
Faults 8.0 7.0 1.0 0.3090
Lithology 6.0 5.0 0.3 1.0 0.1559
Land cover 5.0 4.0 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.1102
Hydrology 3.0 2.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.0439
Roads 4.0 3.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.0 1.0 0.0775
Slope 7.0 6.0 0.5 2.0 3.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 0.2200
Curvature 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.0 0.0191

It was found that the highest weight was assigned to fault
followed by slope steepness and geology. Land cover, road
network, and hydrology were also found effective. The other
layers such as aspect, elevation, and river were found as less
influential (Table 4).
After applying the AHP technique on raster data layers, the
resultant map was reclassified into four susceptible zones as
very high, high, moderate, and low (Fig. 12). Very high sus-
ceptibility zone covers about 15.83 % of the total area, while
about 53.36 % area was classified as high susceptible zone. In

Fig. 12 Landslide susceptibility map derived from weighted overlay method

292 Page 16 of 19 Arab J Geosci (2016) 9: 292

Table 5 Area of susceptibility map classes Table 6 Comparison of

landslide susceptibility Index value Landslides found
Classes Area (km2) Area % index with the observed
landslides 8 0
Low susceptible 24.72 3.33 7 0
Moderate susceptible 197.66 26.67 6 8
High susceptible 395.4 53.36 5 50
very high susceptible 117.37 15.83 4 101
Total 741 100 3 50
2 2
1 0
contrary, moderate susceptible zone covers about 26.67 % of 0 0
the total area and the remaining 3.3 % area was classified as Total 211
low susceptible zone (Table 5).

Validation of susceptibility map
After obtaining the susceptibility map of the study area, the
next step was to find performance through a predictive tech-
nique. For this purpose, many predictive techniques can be
used for accuracy assessment of landslide susceptibility
modeling. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves
are usually used to determine the threshold value for landslide
susceptibility mapping (Brenning 2005). It is considered a
method for evaluation of accuracy and effectiveness of the
model (Ahmed 2014; Lee 2005; Fawcett 2006). ROC curve
is a graphical plot that shows the performance of the model. It
is based on the true positive rate (TPR) and the false positive
rate (FPR; Swets 1988). FPR defines how many incorrect
positive results occur among all negative cases, while TPR
defines how many correct positive results occur among all
positive cases. An important measure of the accuracy of the
analysis is the area under curve. The area under curve (AUC)
indicates the accuracy of the model (Ahmed and Rubel 2013;
Mathew et al. 2007). The interval of accuracy level of the
model has been classified by Pradhan et al. (2010) and Zare
et al. (2012). The most ideal model shows a curve that has the
largest area under the curve (AUC). An ideal model presents
an AUC value close to 1.0, whereas a value close to 0.5 indi-
cates inaccuracy of the model (Fawcett 2006). A ROC curve is
better than another if it is closer to the upper left corner
(Pradhan et al. 2010; Zare et al. 2012).
For this study, the ROC curve was produced by plotting
TPR at y-axis against FPR at x-axis with definite threshold
value or cutoff value for accuracy assessment (Fig. 13). The
produced landslide susceptibility map was compared with
known landslide locations through ROC curve (Table 6). A
total of 30 % landslide points were used to check the accuracy
rate of the landslide susceptibility model. So, 210 landslide
location points were collected randomly and compared with
eight levels of susceptibility map, and curved was produced
(Fig. 14). In the presented study, threshold value was obtained
in four classes and the area under curve is 0.76 which shows
an accuracy of 76 % for the final susceptibility map. This
shows very good result for prediction purposes (Fig. 14).

Fig. 13 Assessment of
susceptibility map performance ROC Curve
based on ROC 1

0.9

0.8

0.7
TRUE POSITIVE RATE

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
FALSE POSITIVE RATE
Arab J Geosci (2016) 9: 292 Page 17 of 19 292

Fig. 14 Map showing different levels of susceptibility. 0 = low susceptible; 8 = very high susceptible
292 Page 18 of 19
Conclusions
The landslide susceptibility map for the part of tehsil Balakot
was produced using weighted overlay method and Analytic
Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique. Nine important causative
factors of landslide occurrence were considered for construction
of thematic data layers using GIS. The numerical weight for
each factors were assigned by AHP. The landslide susceptibility
indices were calculated using weighted overlay technique, and
finally, landslide susceptibility map was produced using GIS.
The landslide susceptibility map classified the study area
into very high, high, moderate, and low susceptible zones.
The landslide susceptibility reveals that most of the study area
(69 %) falls in high and very high susceptibility zones due to the
prevalence of faults, very high steep slopes, and lithology.
Therefore, those areas which are near the faults and on steep
slopes are unsafe for future construction and other develop-
ments. The areas which are composed of Murree and Tanol
formations are also highly unsafe for construction purposes.
On the basis of these results, the Balakot city, Garlat, Hangrai,
and Paras areas are proposed unsafe and are likely to be prone
to landslide in the future. In contrast, one third of the study area
(31 %) falls in low and moderate susceptibility zones. The low
susceptible zone is safe for construction purposes; however,
moderate susceptible zones require some geotechnical investi-
gation before any construction.
The result of the susceptibility mapping was verified
using the landslide occurrence, and the verification result
revealed 76 % accuracy. The validated result showed
good agreement between landslide occurrence and pro-
duced susceptibility map of the area. Therefore, obtained
susceptibility map is validated for landslide hazard, mit-
igations, and land use planning for future construction in
the area.
Moreover, the susceptibility map of the investigated
area provides sufficient information about present and
future landslides for public, engineers, and planners to
mitigate construction issues caused by landslides.
Remedial measurements can be applied for high/very
high zones by engineering techniques using this suscep-
tibility map.
Acknowledgments We are grateful to the Institute of Geology,
University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, for providing research
facilities and transportation during field visits. We sincerely thank
for the anonymous reviewer for his valuable suggestions that im-
proved the manuscript.
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