Climate Change and the Himalayas

Presentation at Rivers for Life 3

Shripad Dharmadhikary
Based on Study Done for
International Rivers
Himalayas
 Mountain ranges that separate the
Indian sub-continent from the Tibetan
plateau
 An arc 2,400 km long
 Across Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan
 Often Called the Third Pole
 Source of Ganga, Indus, Brahamaputra
 A Global Heritage
Massive Dam Building Plans
 Vast Store of Water
 High Slopes, Fast moving rivers
 High Hydropower Potential
 Plans for over 80,000 MW capacity in
the next 10 years
 Himalayas could be the area with
highest concentration of dams in the
world
 Hydropower Potential
Total Claimed Capacity Already % Capacity
Potential Developed Remaining
(MW) (MW) to be
Developed
Bhutan 23,760 1,488 93.74 %

Nepal 44,000 561 98.73 %

Pakistan 41,722 6,444 84.55 %

India 118,210 26,376 77.69%

(Himalayan)
India (Rest) 30,491 19,641 35.58%
 Hydropower Projects
In MW (Number of Projects in brackets)
Existing Under Proposed
Construction

Nepal 545 84 26,324

(15 ) (2) (37)

Pakistan 6,385 1,405 33,769

(6) (7) (35)

Bhutan 1,480 15,693

(5) (16)

India 15,208 17,765 93,615

(74) (37) (318)
Climate Change
 Huge impact on Himalayas – warming
higher in Himalayas than global average
 Will alter the fundamental assumptions
of dam building program - water flow in
the rivers
 Impacts not considered in dam building
 Many Himalayan rivers have significant
flow generated from glacial and snow
melt - 70% of the summer flow of the
main Ganga, Indus and Kabul
Impacts in Himalayas
 Many uncertainties but broad impacts
clear
 Increased in extreme events
 Leading to flash floods, landslides,
debris flow
 Increased variability in river flows
 Much lower lean season flows, lower
total flows
Increased Glacial
Melting
 Glaciers melting is accelerating
 Glacial melt will lead to initial increase in river
flows - raising concerns of safety of the dam,
increased flooding and submergence
 Subsequent depletion or disappearance of
glaciers will lead to much lower flows,
especially lean season flows - impacting
performance
 Massive negative downstream impacts
especially in lean season with several hundred
million people potentially affected in the plains
of Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra
 Increased Threats of
GLOF
 Increased threats of Glacial Lake Outburst
Floods (GLOF)
 As Glaciers melt, they can form lakes behind
temporary dams of ice and moraine
 Flash floods result when these dams fail
 Climate change will increase the threat of
GLOF
 Increase in frequency of GLOFs already
seen in Nepal and Bhutan
 Increased
Sedimentation
 Increased silt loads in rivers due to
 higher proportion of precipitation falling as
rain rather than snow, with higher erosion
 Increase in extreme events and intensities of

precipitation
 Melting of permafrost
Country Specific
impacts
 Nepal, Bhutan, India, Pakistan
 Increased frequency of GLOFs can threaten
dams, population centres
 Increased flow can threaten proposed
hydropower dams
 Pakistan – increased flow in Indus basin can
exacerbate the problem of flooding
 Pakistan – later, dramatic decline in flows …
conceivable by a “terrifying” 30-40%
 India – fall in lean season flow can threaten
millions of people in the Ganga-Brahmaputra
plains
High Level of
Uncertainty
 Large gaps in knowledge of short and
long term impacts
 Impacts of water flow, safety, hazards
 Downstream impacts
 Need to allow flexibility in planning to
take care of knowledge gap
 Large dams will lock huge levels of
resources, block other options
Large Dams Dangerous
Solutions
 As climate change increases variability
in river flow, large storage dams
suggested as solutions to even out high-
low flows
 This is a high risk, high cost wrong
choice because:
Large Dams Dangerous
Solutions
 Climate change will increase threats to dams
from flash floods, initially increased high
flows, GLOFs
 Increased variability in rivers means higher
storage required, more cost
 Much lower low season flows, or lower total
flows means under-performance of dams
 High social and environmental impacts of dams
 Uncertainty in climate change effects, large
dams represent high cost, inflexible response