HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING OF

STREAMFLOWS IN SATLUJ RIVER BASIN

USING SWAT

Presented by

Md Asif Iqbal
M. Tech. (Environmental Sc. & Engg)

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 Climate Change
• Global climate is changing in an unprecedented
manner
• Climate is changing mainly due to increasing
concentrations of carbon dioxide and aerosols
• Green houses gases lead to effect known as
greenhouse effect, which causes warming of earth
surface
• Climate change is anticipated to have significant
impacts on many aspects of natural environment
including water resources

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 Impact on water resources

• According to intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

• Frequency and magnitude of precipitation events likely
to change considerably (IPCC, 2007)
• Extreme events likely to become more frequent
• Potential impacts of climate change can put critical
infrastructure to risk
• Extent of global snow covered and glacierized area has
been altered due to climatic changes in many parts of
the world

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 Climate Change in India

• In developing countries like India, climate change

represent an additional stress on ecological and
socioeconomic systems that are already facing
tremendous pressures due to rapid urbanization,
industrialization and economic development
• With its huge and growing population, a 7500-km long
densely populated and low-lying coastline, and an
economy that is closely tied to its natural resource
base, India is considerably vulnerable to the impacts
of climate change

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 Climate Change in India

Three main reasons why India is highly vulnerable to

the impacts of climate change
• India is an agriculture-dependent economy and
monsoons are lifeline of agriculture
• Around 9000-12000 glaciers in the Himalayan region
are receding abnormally
• Carbon emissions from transportation sector are
currently at 10% but are likely to increase to 25% by
the end of next decade

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 Background

• The design of hydrological systems has traditionally

been carried out on the assumption that the available
flow records for a location reflect stationary climatic
conditions
• In view of the ongoing climate change, the temporal
distribution of water availability at reservoir sites is
likely to be impacted
• Assumption of stationarity of hydro-meteorological
data is not justified

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 Project Objectives

• The major objective of the present project is to

conduct hydrological modelling to evaluate
potential impacts of climate change in Sutlej River
basin
• Satluj is considered highly sensitive to the
impacts of climate change as it lies in the
Himalayan region
• More than 50% of the streamflow at Bhakra is
obtained through glacier and snowmelt thus
increasing the vulnerability of basin to climatic
changes
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 Project Objectives

• To carry out a review of literature related to

weather generating models and their application
to hydrologic processes
• To collect hydro-meteorological data from
different agencies
• To develop a hydrological model using SWAT that
can simulate hydrologic processes in the basin
under present and future climatic conditions
• To compare observed and simulated streamflows
at several hydro-meteorological stations in the
basin
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 Project Organization

• Chapter 1 Introduction
• Chapter 2 Literature Review
• Chapter 3 Description of Satluj Basin – the study area
• Chapter 4 Description of the SWAT model
• Chapter 5 Application of SWAT model for the
simulation of streamflows in Satluj River basin
• Chapter 6 Conclusions

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 The Satluj Basin

• Satluj river is a major river of the Indus system, which

originates from Mansarover Lake in Tibet
• Satluj river enters India near Shipkila at an elevation
of about 2530 m
• Satluj is one of the main sources of hydroelctric
power in Himachal Pradesh
• The total hydro-power potential of Satluj river basin
as estimated is 9728.25 MW out of which 5515.75 MW
is being harnessed through projects that are either
under operation or in construction stages.

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 The Satluj Basin

• The total catchment area of Satluj river upto Kol dam site is
53770 sq Km of which 16870sq km lies in India
• The elevation ranges from over 7700 m in Tibet to 500 m at
Kol
• Over 90% of the catchment lies above the elevation 1525 m
and as a result majority of precipitation in the basin is
snowfall
• Below 1525 m elevation rainfall is predominant
• The permanent snow line is at an elevation of 4500 m,
above which there are many glaciers and snowfields

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 Vulnerability of Satluj Flow to Temperature
and Precipitation Changes
• Flow from the River Satluj, a tributary of River Indus,
provides the basis for irrigated agriculture, which is
the mainstay of the economy of northern India
• Around 59% of runoff at Bhakra Dam situated on river
Satluj is derived from the melting of seasonally
accumulated snow and ice from glaciers (Singh and
Jain 2002)
• Flow magnitude and timing in the Satluj are, therefore,
vulnerable to changes in both temperature and
precipitation.

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Schematic of Satluj Basin

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The Satluj Basin

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Hydropower Schemes in Satluj Basin

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Hydropower Potential for Different Rivers in
the Basin

S. No Rivers Identified Potential

(MW)
1. Satluj 9728
2. Beas 4293
3. Ravi 2181
4. Chenab 3301
5. Yamuna 960
Total 20464

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Major Hydropower Schemes in Satluj basin

S. No Name of Dam Installed Capacity

(MW)
1. Bhakra Dam 1325

2. Nathpa Jhakri 1500

3. Kol Dam 800

4. Rampur 412

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 Bhakra Dam
• The construction of this project was started in the year
1948 and was completed in 1963
• Bhakra Dam is the highest Concrete Gravity dam in
Asia and Second Highest in the world.
• It is 226 m high above the deepest foundation which
means that is more than three times the height of Qutab
Minar
• The total installed capacity of left bank power plant is
450 MW - 5 units of 90 MW each and of the right bank
power plant is 600 MW - 5 units of 120 MW each
• The dam uses the waters of Satluj River to supply
drinking and irrigation water

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Bhakra dam

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 Description of SWAT Model

• SWAT is the acronym for Soil and Water Assessment

Tool, a river basin or watershed scale model
developed by Dr. Jeff Arnold for the United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural
Research Service (ARS)
• SWAT is a continues time model that can be
effectively used for the assessment of hydrological
impacts of climate change

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Hydrologic Processes in SWAT Model

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 SWAT-GIS Interface
• The interface between the model SWAT and
ArcGIS is called ArcSWAT
• ArcGIS is used to calculate basic hydrologic
information for the model (i.e. surface slope,
water flow paths)
• ArcGIS calculates the position and the size of
the Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) and
prepares the necessary files which are used
by the SWAT model

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Watershed Delineation

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Basin Map Extraction with ArcGIS

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Soil Types

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Soil Map of the basin Based on FAO World
Digital Global Soil Map

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 Input Data

• Digital Elevation Data

• Landuse Data
• Climate Data

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 Input Data: Digital Elevation Model

• Digital elevation models (DEM) for the entire

globe, covering all of the countries of the
world, are available for download from
http://www.cgiar-csi.org/data/srtm-90m-digita
l- elevation-database-v4-1
• These data were derived using Shuttle Radar
Topography Mission (SRTM)
• The 90 m resolution topography data from
the SRTM –DEM was used as a basis for the
modeling process

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 Input Data: Landuse Data

• The land use data for this study was obtained

from the database of University of Maryland
• The Global soil map based on digital soil
map of the world having a scale of
1:5,000,000 has been used for modelling
• Soil Map for the basin was prepared using
the global soil map

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 Input Data: Climate Data

• The outputs of PRECIS - a high resolution

regional climate model developed by the
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
Research and the Met Office, United
Kingdom - have been used
• PRECIS data used herein was produced by
the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology,
India for the thirty grid cells covering the
entire Satluj River Basin with a resolution of
about 50 km x 50 km

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 Modelling Process

• Three steps
• 1. Calibaration
• 2. Validation
• 3. Application

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 Calibration

• The calibration of SWAT model was carried

out using the observed streamflow data at
Bhakra for the period 2000 to 2010
• A large number of parameters that describe
different hydrological conditions and
characteristics across the basin are included
in the SWAT model
• During the calibration, model parameters are
adjusted, in order to obtain model results
that correspond to observed values

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Calibration Results

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 Validation

• Validation of the model was carried out for

the data for the period 2001-2009.
• As was the case during calibration, the
model tends to overestimate peak flows
during validation period as well
• The simulated flows during the calibration
period closely matched the corresponding
observed flows, with less overestimation of
peak flows as compared to the validation
period

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Validation Results

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Simulated and Observed Streamflows at
Rampur

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Simulated and Observed Streamflows at
Suni

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Simulated and Observed Streamflows at
Bhakra

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Observed Versus Simulated Streamflows
• Observed streamflows at these stations have
been compared with the simulated
streamflows
• Streamflows are adequately simulated except
the peak flows, which appear to be
underestimated by the model
• Under-estimation of peak flows is evident at
all the three stations
• Model needs to be re-calibrated to overcome
this discrepency

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Streamflows Under Historic and Under A1B
Scenarion (Asif Insert the figure here)

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 Conclusions

• A review of literature related to application of

SWAT model in basins from different regions
of the world including India has been
presented
• The input data required to execute the SWAT
model has been prepared. This data can be
profitably used in future studies.
• A SWAT-based hydrological model has been
calibrated and validated

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 Conclusions

• Using the calibrated and validated model, the

streamflows have been simulated at three
different locations in the basin
• The SWAT has the potential to simulate
streamflows under the impacts of future
climate change in the basin
• The practical advantage of the model is that
it has the potential to aid in the development
of adaptation and mitigation strategies in the
basin

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