Synopsis

Hydrological Modelling Using SWAT

Submitted
by

Md. Asif Eqbal

10 EM 06
M. Tech. (Environmental Science and Engineering)

Under the Supervision of

Prof. Mohammed Sharif

Department of Civil Engineering

Faculty of Engineering and Technology
Jamia Millia Islamia
New Delhi
October 2012

1
 1 Hydrological Modelling Using SWAT

1.1 Introduction

The impact of global warming in the Himalayan region can be devastating

because 40% of all the people in the world get their drinking water supplies
from rivers and spring systems that are fed more than half by glacier and
snow melt waters. At Bhakra – a major reservoir in the basin, the contribution
of glacier and snow melt to the flows in Satluj is of the order of 60% (Singh
and Jain, 2002). Any changes in the streamflow pattern at Bhakra could
adversely impact the economy of the region mainly due to strong
dependence of agricultural activities on the waters released from Bhakra.
Key hydrological uncertainties in the response of any region to global
warming are normally incorporated through projections of future climate
scenarios in the region. However, incorporation of future climate projections
can cause a great deal of uncertainty in the output of hydrological models. An
ensemble of climate scenarios is, therefore, considered to be able to
evaluate hydrological impacts of climate change in a region.

1.2 Project Objectives

The major objective of the present project is to conduct hydrological

modelling to evaluate potential impacts of climate change in Satluj River
basin. Satluj is considered highly sensitive to the impacts of climate change
as it lies in the Himalayan region.

Specific objectives of the project may be outlined as follows.

 To carry out a review of literature related to weather generating

models and their application to hydrologic processes

2
  To collect hydro-meteorological data from India Meteorological
department, other Indian governmental agencies and international
sources of remote sensing data

 To develop a hydrological model using SWAT that can simulate

hydrologic processes in the basin under present and future climatic
conditions

1.3 Methodology

The data pertaining to streamflows shall be obtained from government

agencies such as the Indian Meteorological Department and Bhakra Beas
management Board. The efforts shall be to collect the data on a daily time
scale as most impact assessment models are driven by daily data. The
output of GCM’s and regional climate models (RCMs) for different points of
interest in the basin shall be obtained from international agencies such as
NASA, Hadley Centre, United Kingdom. Several sets of regionalised climate
scenarios shall be derived from the GCM outputs. Remote sensing data for
the basin will be obtained from international agencies. The hydrological
modelling to quantify streamflow at Bhakra and other locations shall be
carried out using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) – a river basin
scale model capable of simulating hydrologic processes. The SWAT model
will be calibrated, validated, and applied to perform continuous long-term
simulation on a daily time-step to predict streamflow for an ensemble of
climate change scenarios.

1.4 Likely Project Outputs

With the developed model, the uncertainty in the hydrological impacts of

climate change could be ascertained. The project will provide data sets that
could be used by other researchers in related studies. The ability to predict
future streamflow behaviour using the SWAT model is likely to enhance the
capability of water resource managers to plan and operate Bhakra reservoir
system with greater degree of efficiency and reliability. The proposed work

3
has the potential for providing valuable aid in developing efficient flood and
drought management strategies for the basin because of the ability of the
model to simulate hydrologic processes under present climate and also
under potential climate change scenarios.

4
1.5 References

Singh, P., Jain, S.K., (2002). Snow and glacier contribution in the Satluj river
at Bhakra Dam in the Western Himalayan region. Hydrological Sciences
Journal 47, 93–106.