International Journal of Erosion Control Engineering Vol. 7, No.

3, 2014

Invited Commentary

Models for Prediction of the Effects of Hydrological and

Basin Characteristics on Reservoir Sedimentation for Water
Management in Thailand

Kosit LORSIRIRAT1
1Expert of Hydrology, Royal Irrigation Department (811 Samsen Rd., Bangkok 10300, Thailand)
E-mail: kositrid@gmail.com

Owing to recent climate and land use changes, which affect reservoir sedimentation, reductions in reservoir
capacity and shortening of reservoir lifespan have occurred. Meanwhile, water resource management and
planning strategies have becomes less effective. Such issues are likely to worsen unless sediment
deposition can be predicted precisely and sedimentation can be prevented or controlled appropriately.
Accordingly, a model for predicting changes in reservoir capacity due to changes in hydrological
characteristics is necessary.
The present study aims to assess the factors contributing to reservoir sedimentation in Thailand and to
derive a predictive model of reservoir sedimentation using geomorphological factors and forest cover from
25 reservoirs throughout Thailand. In particular, mathematical statistical models predicting reservoir
sedimentation (RS) were formulated through multiple regression analysis using data from these 25
reservoirs.
The results of the study demonstrate that sediment volumes range from 0.0072 to 4.7218 million m3/year,
with an average of 0.49 million m3/year. Six variables were found to have a significant effect on
sedimentation in the model: annual volume of inflow (Q), average annual rainfall (R), drainage area (DA),
relief ratio (Sr), compactness coefficient (Kc), and stream length ratio (Si). The most applicable equation
for predicting RS for reservoirs in Thailand appears to be as follows:
RS=exp{3.19007 + 0.00176R - 0.00087DA - 0.00065Cap + 0.03364WSA + 16.44675Sr - 1.29256Kc -
1.07294Si} R0.99986 DA0.00014
This equation produced the highest adjusted R2 (0.9125) with the smallest standard error of estimate
(0.4963) and highly significant in prediction. Thus, this model can be applied to predict annual
sedimentation in other reservoirs in Thailand.
This equation can also be applied to forecast the volume of sediment deposition in other reservoirs and
ascertain the real water supply of a given reservoir. Accordingly, it can achieve reductions in operational
costs through reservoir capacity surveys, reducing government budgets by an average of 1,900,000 baht per
project, and can reduce the time required for each survey by an average of 14 months. The prediction
results can be used in the simulation of reservoir operations, improving the efficiency of irrigation
operations and ensuring the sustainable management of water resources.

Key words: basin characteristics, prediction, reservoir sedimentation

1. INTRODUCTION generating sediment transportation and deposition

One of main problems affecting water resource
development projects is reservoir sedimentation,
which reduces the useful capacity of reservoirs.
Accordingly, water resource development and
planning cannot be successful unless sediment
deposition can be prevented and controlled. Such
planning will be reliable only if the factors
are known and if the effects of these factors on
annual sediment volume delivered to reservoirs can
be constrained.
Most of the sediment deposition in reservoirs is
generated by surface erosion in upstream areas. The
amount and transport processes of this sediment
depend on onsite erosion, which is controlled by
rainfall energy and land use changes, drainage

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geomorphology, inflow, overland and stream slopes, Table 1 Locations and characteristics of reservoirs in this study
basin area, and soil type. To date, no studies have Coordinates Sediment
Reservoir Surveyed
Yield
investigated reservoir sedimentation in Thailand, Name Latitude Longitude Year (mcm/y)
and only a few offices are responsible for water Lumtakong 101.5823 14.8621 2521-2527 0.3570
resources development projects. Additionally, most Lumprapleang 101.7012 14.3816 2526-2534 1.8235
previous studies have investigated the lifespan of Subpradu 101.7060 14.8489 2522-2526 0.0993
reservoirs based on historical data, paying little Lumchamuag 102.4917 15.0883 2506-2529 0.0072
attention to the impact of land-use changes. Huajarakaemak 103.0534 14.9129 2506-2529 0.0246
To ensure effective watershed management, Hautalad 103.0880 14.8831 2499-2529 0.1230
sediment transportation to reservoirs should be Lamnangrong 102.7671 14.3019 2514-2535 1.4056
investigated with consideration of changes in Hauwangnang 104.2243 16.3671 2530-2535 0.1297
drainage morphological factors and forest Haukang 103.6915 16.5337 2523-2530 0.7276
Haukan 104.6117 17.1403 2523-2535 0.0558
conversion. In this regard, previous studies have
Haukilek 104.5732 16.3577 2499-2524 0.1956
concentrated on methods of resurveying to construct
Banpet 102.3090 16.3569 2523-2535 0.1039
contour maps of reservoirs in order to determine
Nongkow 101.0369 13.1239 2526-2532 0.2593
their remaining capacity. However, this method
Mabprachan 100.9580 12.9361 2523-2532 0.1992
cannot be applied to forecast the volume of Kawrakum 102.4249 12.2646 2515-2523 0.0639
sediment deposition in other reservoirs and is not Klongbueng 99.7105 11.9306 2525-2540 0.0117
cost effective. Furthermore, this method provides no Yangchum 99.6873 12.0777 2523-2539 0.0975
input into the reduction or mitigation of reservoir Pranburi 99.7956 12.4682 2511-2539 4.7218
sedimentation through watershed management. Maekad 99.0388 19.1587 2528-2546 0.0169
Keiwlom 99.6254 18.5218 2515-2545 0.1930
2. OBJECTIVES Haupadang 101.0917 16.4525 2520-2544 0.0792

According to the development plan for the study
region, water demand will increase in future, and the
aim is to reach optimal efficiency in water resources
management. Therefore, better understanding of
reservoir sedimentation conditions is one of several
important issues. The main objectives of this study
are as follows:
(1) to investigate the effects of drainage
morphological factors and forest conversion on
reservoir sedimentation;
(2) to develop a model to predict increases in
sediment volume; and
(3) to derive equations to predict the sediment
volume to be deposited in planned or
unmeasured reservoirs and investigate
management implications in watershed areas for
the reduction of reservoir siltation.
3. METHODOLOGY
3.1 Data collection
Available data and information related to
sedimentation in reservoirs in Thailand, such as
hydrological data, maps, physical factors, forest
cover, and other related data have already been
collected by the Hydrology Division, Office of
Hydrology, Royal Irrigation Department, Ministry
of Agriculture and Co-operatives, Thailand, and by
the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand.
The samples are shown in Table 1.
The considered parameters were investigated as
follows.
(1) Increases in sediment volumes in reservoirs (RS)
were observed by the Royal Irrigation
Department (RID) and Electricity Generating
Authority of Thailand. The reservoirs were
surveyed within the given time period using the
range line method leveling from bench marks to
the cross-section line, and echo-sounding of the
depth of the bed below the water level was
conducted to establish reservoir contour maps.
Based on the original volume and capacity of
each reservoir, any decreases in its sediment
capacity could be determined by comparing the
survey results with the base map, averaged over
the survey time period.
(2) Annual inflow (Q), reservoir capacity (Re), and
water surface area (WSA) were obtained from
the Hydrology Division of RID.
(3) Rainfall data (Ra) were provided by rain gauges
situated at the reservoir meteorological station,
averaged over the time period of the reservoir
resurvey.
(4) The percentages of watershed classes (WSC1 to
WSC5; Tangtham and Chunkao [1990]) by area
were obtained from a watershed classification
map, (1:250,000).
(5) The stream length ratio or sinuosity (Si) was
measured from a topographic map at 1:50,000
scale. In particular, the main stream length from
the most remote point of the main stream to the

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outlet (l) was found and divided by the straight
distance between these points (L).
(6) The relief ratio (Sr) was obtained from a
topographic map at 1:50,000 scale, based on the
altitude difference between the highest and
lowest points of the basin (h) divided by the
straight distance between these points (L).
(7) The compactness coefficient (Kc) was
determined from a topographic map at 1:50,000
scale, from the drainage area enclosed by the
perimeter of the basin (P), divided by the
perimeter of a circle (2,nr) with the same area as
the basin.
3.2 Model formulation
Multiple regression analysis was applied to
analyze the relationship between increases in
sediment volumes in reservoirs (RS) and drainage
morphological factors and forest conversion. The
following factors were investigated.
RS = f (Q, R, DA, Cap, WSA, Sr, Kc, Si) (1)
where
RS = annual sedimentation in reservoir
Q = annual volume of inflow
R = average annual rainfall
DA = drainage area
Cap = capacity of reservoir
WSA = water surface area
Sr = relief ratio
Kc = compactness coefficient
Si = stream length ratio
The correlations between the dependent (RS)
and independent (Q, R, DA, Cap, WSA, Sr, Kc, Si)
variables were determined based on the coefficient
of determination (R2) and the F-test ratio. The data
analysis of the affirmation recompilation used the
open source package, R program. Both stepwise and
full model regression analysis were employed to
obtain the prediction models.
4. RESULTS
4.1 Data collection
Data were collected from the Royal Irrigation
Department (RID) and the Electricity Generating
Authority of Thailand (EGAT). The collected data
include annual sedimentation in reservoirs (million
m3/year; RS), annual volume of inflow (million
m3/year; Q), average annual rainfall (mm; R),
drainage area (km2; DA), capacity of reservoir
(million m3; Cap), water surface area (km2; WSA),
relief ratio (Sr), compactness coefficient (Kc), and
stream length ratio (Si), as shown in Table 2. The
annual sedimentation in reservoirs was found to
vary from a minimum of 0.0072 (mcm/y) at
Lamchamuag reservoir (northeast) to a maximum of
4.7218 (mcm/y) at Pranburi reservoir (southern).
The average sedimentation rate was found to be
approximately 0.49 (mcm/y).

Table 2 Data collected in this study

No. RS Q R DA Cap WSA Sr Kc Si
1 0.36 258.74 922.43 1346.05 323.96 1.36 0.02 2.11 1.45
2 1.82 208.72 1250.30 820.00 108.00 0.52 0.03 1.76 1.48
3 0.10 65.76 901.50 174.57 26.78 4.12 0.03 1.54 1.37
4 0.01 62.52 1293.50 160.66 23.28 5.31 0.00 1.66 1.22
5 0.02 23.49 1141.10 156.41 21.05 5.28 0.00 1.53 1.35
6 0.12 68.00 1425.20 125.00 15.49 10.44 0.00 1.26 1.43
7 1.41 154.63 1240.90 464.87 120.48 4.64 0.01 1.94 1.37
8 0.23 1642.96 1720.00 2097.00 1967.13 12.78 0.01 1.80 1.36
9 0.17 28.33 1309.50 79.60 13.60 1.77 0.00 1.35 1.10
10 0.94 76.21 1294.80 232.29 26.85 1.61 0.00 1.28 1.65
11 0.25 46.11 1130.20 149.94 18.18 4.17 0.00 1.27 1.22
12 0.13 20.10 1118.30 65.00 11.46 10.45 0.04 1.53 1.32
13 0.73 54.53 1256.70 145.22 23.33 2.68 0.01 1.34 1.80
14 0.06 13.58 1411.80 21.92 10.52 2.36 0.01 1.19 1.21
15 0.20 37.64 1559.90 77.95 25.41 3.20 0.03 1.55 1.28
16 0.10 28.33 1004.40 180.00 19.41 4.82 0.02 1.22 1.31
17 0.26 16.35 1108.10 51.95 17.44 8.84 0.06 1.49 1.49
18 0.20 16.04 1246.00 39.06 13.01 7.25 0.03 1.26 1.08
19 0.06 75.00 2145.80 36.13 22.99 11.70 0.02 1.46 1.53
20 0.01 27.34 1142.40 128.65 21.93 2.31 0.06 1.28 1.89
21 0.10 68.41 922.20 373.57 30.44 1.55 0.04 1.36 1.67
22 4.72 253.82 822.40 2016.23 312.79 1.40 0.02 1.88 2.00
23 0.02 353.32 1083.30 1280.72 264.70 1.25 0.03 1.55 2.24
24 0.19 608.08 1092.90 2695.45 106.22 0.71 0.02 1.80 1.43
25 0.08 26.12 917.20 88.86 18.80 2.89 0.07 1.57 1.92

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Table 3 Correlation matrix

Rxy RS Q R DA Cap WSA Sr Kc Si
RS 1 0.06 -0.25 0.41 0.08 -0.28 -0.08 0.41 0.33
Q 0.06 1 0.25 0.75 0.95 0.27 -0.18 0.45 0.04
R -0.25 0.25 1 -0.15 0.27 0.56 -0.33 -0.15 -0.29
DA 0.41 0.75 -0.15 1 0.59 -0.18 -0.11 0.66 0.28
Cap 0.08 0.95 0.27 0.59 1 0.37 -0.16 0.40 0.02
WSA -0.28 0.27 0.56 -0.18 0.37 1 -0.05 -0.10 -0.33
Sr -0.08 -0.18 -0.33 -0.11 -0.16 -0.05 1 0.01 0.44
Kc 0.41 0.45 -0.15 0.66 0.40 -0.10 0.01 1 0.13
Si 0.33 0.04 -0.29 0.28 0.02 -0.33 0.44 0.13 1

4.2 Relationships between reservoir Table 4 Results of the multiple-regression analysis

sedimentation and geomorphological factors between reservoir sedimentation and drainage
Relationships between reservoir sedimentation morphological factors and forest conversion
and drainage morphological factors and forest Model F-value p-value R-squared
conversion were analyzed using a correlation 1 2.9861 0.0298 0.5989
matrix, as shown in Table 3. 2 3.6259 0.0142 0.5989
Of the factors contributing to reservoir 3 4.4554 0.0062 0.5976
sedimentation, the relationship between the 4 5.4385 0.0029 0.5887
compactness coefficient (Kc) and RS exhibited the 5 7.0327 0.0011 0.5845
highest correlation (0.4148). Similarly, the 6 8.7428 0.0006 0.5554
correlation between water surface area (WSA) and
RS produced a correlation coefficient of 0.4064, 0.5989. To increase R-squared, the data were
whereas the relationship between the annual volume transformed by dividing RS and R by DA and then
of inflow (Q) and RS produced the weakest taking the log of the result. The models were then
correlation (0.0601). Thus, the correlations of RS fitted with the raw data, as shown in Table 5.
with the other factors can be considered low, with
Model 1:
all coefficients less than 0.5.
 RS    R 
Model 1: ln   3.19007  0.99986 ln 
RS = -1.2506 - 0.0092Q + 0.0006R + 0.0019DA  DA    DA 
+ 0.0054Cap + 0.008WSA - 6.549Sr + 0.2073Kc + 0.00176R - 0.0087DA - 0.00065Cap
+ 0.4427Si (2a) + 0.03364WSA + 16.44675Sr - 1.29256Kc
Model 2: + 0.4427Si (3a)
RS = -1.2490 - 0.0092Q + 0.0006R + 0.0019DA Model 2:
+ 0.0054Cap - 6.7231Sr + 0.2073Kc + 0.4404Si  RS    R 
ln   3.22310 0.99627 ln 
(2b)  DA    DA 
Model 3: + 0.00193R - 0.00093DA - 0.0005Cap
RS = -0.9329 - 0.0094Q + 0.0006R + 0.002DA + 17.76575Sr - 1.28415Kc - 1.17092Si (3b)
+ 0.0055Cap - 6.2157Sr + 0.3997Si (2c) Model 3:
Model 4:
RS = -0.4561 - 0.0099Q + 0.0006R + 0.0021DA  RS    R 
ln   3.56842 1.00087 ln 
+ 0.0058Cap - 3.5083Sr (2d)  DA    DA 
Model 5: + 0.00168R - 0.00109DA + 17.13437Sr
RS = -0.6583 - 0.0099Q + 0.0007R + 0.0021DA - 1.31905Kc - 1.11690Si (3c)
+ 0.0058Cap (2e)
Model 6: Table 5 Results of the multiple-regression analysis
RS = 0.2661 - 0.0087Q + 0.0018DA + 0.0052Cap between reservoir sedimentation and drainage
(2f) morphological factors and forest conversion with
transformed RS and Q
The results of the applied multi-regression Model F-value p-value R-squared RMSE
analysis are presented in Table 4.
1 31.64461 0.0000 0.9406 0.4024
All 6 of these models can be considered
2 36.74304 0.0000 0.9380 0.4110
significant, with p-values less than 0.05. The highest
3 40.39870 0.0000 0.9309 0.4344
R-squared was found for Model (1), with a value of

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All 3 of the models presented in Table 5 can be
considered highly significant, with p-values less
than 0.05. Model (7) produced the highest
R-squared (0.9406) and the lowest RMSE (0.4024).
Therefore, the best fitted model for this data set is as
follows:
 RS    R 
ln   3.19007  0.99986 ln 
 DA    DA 
+ 0.00176R -0.0087DA -0.00065Cap
+ 0.03364WSA +16.44675Sr -1.29256Kc
+ 0.4427Si
Thus, the most appropriate model to describe
reservoir sedimentation is as follows:
RS = exp{3.19007 +0.00176R -0.00087DA
- 0.00065Cap +0.03364WSA +16.44675Sr
- 1.29256Kc -1.07294Si}  R0.99986  DA0.00014
5. CONCLUSIONS
This study aimed to assess the factors
contributing to reservoir sedimentation and derive a
predictive model of reservoir sedimentation using
geomorphological factors of 25 reservoirs in
Thailand. Mathematical statistical models for
predicting reservoir sedimentation were formulated
through multiple regression analysis using data from
these 25 reservoirs, correlating sedimentation with
various hydrological and physical factors and forest
cover variables. The results can be summarized as
follows.
1) Sediment volumes of 25 reservoirs in Thailand
were surveyed by the Royal Irrigation
Department and the Electricity Generating
Authority of Thailand. The annual rate of
sedimentation was found to vary from a
minimum of 0.0072 (mcm/y) at Lamchamuag
reservoir, Nakonratchasima, to a maximum of
4.7218 (mcm/y) at Pranburi reservoir,
Petchaburi. The average sedimentation rate was
found to be approximately 0.49 (mcm/y).
2) Multiple regression analysis was adopted to
determine the relationship between annual
sedimentation in reservoirs (RS) and various
geomorphological factors. Variables including
annual volume of inflow (Q), average annual
rainfall (R), drainage area (DA), reservoir
capacity (RC), water surface area (WSA), relief
ratio (Sr), compactness coefficient (Kc), and
stream length ratio (Si) were employed in the
modeling. The most appropriate equation for RS
prediction for reservoirs in Thailand was found
to be as follows: RS = exp{3.19007 + 0.00176R
- 0.00087DA - 0.00065Cap + 0.03364 WSA +
16.44675 Sr - 1.29256Kc - 1.07294Si}  R0.99986
 DA0.00014,
where
RS = annual sedimentation in reservoir
R = average annual rainfall
DA = drainage area
Cap = capacity of reservoir
WSA = water surface area
Sr = relief ratio
Kc = compactness coefficient
Si = stream length ratio
(4)
This model was selected because it produced the
highest adjusted R2 (0.9406) with the smallest
standard error of estimate (0.4024) and highly
significant in prediction. Thus, this model can
be applied to predict annual sedimentation in
(5) other reservoirs in Thailand.
3) The cost of surveying the storage capacity of
reservoirs is extremely high (about 2 million
baht for each reservoir). However, the selected
model can be used to predict annual
sedimentation and will allow application of a
virtual water management model that will
optimize irrigation water management.
6. SUGGESTIONS
1) To allow the model described here to be applied
in future studies, reservoirs should be selected
based on their rating curves (i.e., the curves
defining the relationship between their water
level and water).
2) A future study will consider land use and its
effects on soil erosion and sediment transport to
downstream areas.
3) This case study was based on data from 25
reservoirs, which are insufficient for a robust
mathematical statistical analysis. Therefore,
future case studies should use data from at least
50 sites to achieve a high level of statistical
confidence.
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Received: September 1, 2013
Accepted: July 31, 2014