[C-AE12- ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT]

The Impact of Population Growth on

Development Economics in Nigeria

Jasmine Erica S. Mercado

ACC 2C
 I. BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

The population is a critical factor in the development plans of any civilized society (Okafor,
2004). Furthermore, any nation’s economic growth is significantly dependent on the growth of its
population. In addition, if the population of a nation is well managed, it can be beneficial or
detrimental to any economy. For instance, China is the world's most populous country, but its
population has been well regulated, and it has aided in the growth of its economy. This is by
raising their productivity and creating low-cost labor which results in a positive effect on their
economy and making China one of the best economies in the world. However, if a country's
population is not well managed and controlled, it can lead to a rise in unemployment, violence,
and poverty, as well as misery in many households. Furthermore, since the conditions existing in
less developed countries are very different from those in developed economies, the effects of
population growth in less developed countries on economic development are not the same as
those in developed countries. As a result, the literature on Nigerian population growth has always
emphasized either the negative or positive effects.

Between 1965 and 2020, the population of Nigeria grew at a rate of more than 2%
annually (Varrella, 2020) and in 2021, Nigeria’s current population is 211,400,708 which grew by
2.55% compared to the previous year. Obviously, Nigeria's population is large, making it a "giant"
in comparison to other African countries, and is regarded as a country with the largest human
population in Africa. Moreover, the country's huge population means a large demand for goods
and services, as well as a large pool of human capital to grow.

Among many other factors causing unprecedented growth of population in Nigeria is the
birth rate and this has greatly affected the growth rate of the population. According to Ojewole
(2015), the rapid increase in the population of the country is caused by the relatively high fertility
level as portrayed by a total fertility rate of about 6.0 births per woman in the 1990s. However, the
fertility rate of Nigeria fell gradually from 6.0 births per woman in the 1990s to 5.2 births per
woman in 2021.
 Nigeria's rapid population growth is likely to have an impact on the country's economic
growth, as it affects a variety of socioeconomic factors. This study will therefore examine the
effect of the population growth on economic growth in Nigeria, particularly focusing on the
population growth rate, which is a major contributor to the rate at which population size
increases, especially in the context of Nigeria, where population size has continued to grow at a
rapid rate in recent years.

II. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

This study aims to point out the imminent and unavoidable impacts of the continuous
increase in human population in the economic development of Nigeria. As mentioned above,
Nigeria has a high fertility rate, and this evidence also indicates that the country's huge
population hampers the government's attempts to meet the people's basic needs. Further to that,
with a population of more than 211 million people and an annual growth rate of roughly 2%, a
significant portion of the country's wealth and resources is undoubtedly consumed rather than
accumulated as capital for development. As a result, development in the economy lags behind
population growth, resulting in a decline in the delivery of social services. This will inevitably
impede any progress made in the battle against poverty.

China is one nation that came close to experiencing Nigeria's fate but was able to
overcome it by making major measures such as limiting the birth rate. China's government limited
childbirth to one per family, which has resulted in lower infant mortality, which is currently
inversely observed in Nigeria and other third-world countries. If nothing is done to stop the rapid
population increase, the resulting consequences of this growth will continue to change the
Nigerian environment continuously. These consequences are currently experienced mostly in
energy consumption, air pollution, and human congestion. Hence, the need for this present
research study wherein its objective is to investigate the effect of population growth on Nigeria’s
economic growth.
 III. RELATED LITERATURE

Nigeria became relevant in world economic history as a result of abundant natural

resources, which range from crude petroleum (oil and gas) to rich water resources, vast fertile
arable land, and abundant forest resources (Ekpebu & Ukpong, 2013, as cited in Esu & Udonwa,
2016). Nigeria has achieved significant economic growth rates for a developing nation. According
to Oguenleye et al. (2018), the economic growth rate of Nigeria was the highest in the third
quarter of 2015 being 9.19%, though it could be argued that Nigeria's GDP rebasing in August
2014 contributed to that. However, Nigeria’s large and fast-growing population suggests that it
may have played a role and needs to be continuously explored in research if Nigeria is to achieve
higher growth rates in light of its vast resources.

Factors Affecting Population Growth

The birth rate has been recognized as a factor in determining whether the population of a
country, such as Nigeria, rises or declines. This has to do with the rate at which women give birth
in a given environment. Many factors have contributed to the rise in the birth rate. According to
Theodore (2019), improved medical care and equipment are one of them. In comparison to
decades ago, medical care and facilities are improved, but not sufficient. Improved medications
and immunization programs have significantly decreased baby, child, maternal, and other sources
of mortality, resulting in a lower birth rate. Another factor is early marriage most especially in the
northern part of Nigeria (Amadi, n.d., as cited in Theodore, 2019). Women in most third-world
countries, especially in Nigeria, marry at a young age. Since women have the ability to have more
children due to their long childbearing years, early marriages appear to result in a high birth rate.
In addition, according to Ojewole (2015), many African households are patriarchal, hierarchical,
and polygamous, which continues to perpetuate women's low status in African communities. As a
result, most women have little, if any, influence over their lives in the communities they care for.
That is why when a woman marries, she assumes a low status in the eyes of her husband's
extended family, which is normally elevated by having a lot of children. Hence, the population
increases.
 Old age security also encourages people to have large families, according to Theodore
(2019). People who are secure in their old age are more likely to have big families. People want a
large family because they believe their children can provide for them when they are older. They
assume that the greater the number of children, the greater the likelihood of a better life in old
age. Another factor given by Theodore (2019) is the increase in the material well-being of some
families. When people have a lot of money, they don't think about how many children they want
to have. Many people have large families as a result of their wealth, resulting in Nigeria's high
birth rates.

Related Empirical Studies

Given that the effect of population growth on economic growth has always been a source
of debate among economists and given Nigeria's high rate of population growth, Tartiyus et al.
(2015) evaluated the impact of population growth on economic growth in Nigeria from 1980 to
2010. The findings revealed a positive relationship between economic growth (as measured by
GDP growth) and population, fertility, and export growth. However, findings also showed a
negative relationship between economic growth (as measured by GDP growth), life expectancy
and the crude death rate. It was recommended that Nigeria's average population growth rate be
maintained because it was found to have a positive impact on economic growth during the study
period and that measures be taken to reduce the country's crude death rate because it has a
negative impact on economic growth.

Adewole (2012) investigated the impact of population on Nigerian economic development

from 1981 to 2007. Between 1981 and 2007, population growth had a positive and significant
effect on economic growth as measured by Per Capita Income (PCI) and Real Gross Domestic
Product (RGDP) in Nigeria. Moreover, in the presentation and evaluation of the results of the
study by Ojewole (2015), it was observed that unemployment, interest rate and inflation rate have
a negative impact on GDP while the population has a positive impact on GDP.
 According to Ukpong, Ekpebu, and Ofem (2013), a rise in population can lead to poverty,
whereas a growth in a country's GDP can help to alleviate poverty, particularly when combined
with other variables that improve people's well-being. Although poverty can be attributed to a
variety of factors, they argued that if a country's population continues to grow without efficient
investment in human capital development and adequate development in economic sectors such
as agriculture that would improve people's livelihoods, any increase in population will inevitably
lead to an increase in poverty in the economy.

Furthermore, in the study Michael, Usang, Nelson, Etim, Onah and Chukwudi (2014) the
examining the effect of population explosion on family standard of living in Calabar, Nigeria, they
revealed that the factors that cause population explosion in a country such as poverty, illiteracy,
and religion, can affect the standard of living of people.

IV. FINDINGS

Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Growth

There are differing viewpoints on the desirability of population growth, with some
researchers claiming that rapid population growth is a serious problem and others claiming that it
is not (Afzal, 2009). While a significant number of studies such as Adewole (2012), Ojewole (2015),
and Tartiyus et al. (2015) find population growth to have a positive effect on economic growth, the
negative consequences of growing population for economic growth on account of poverty,
pollution, and unemployment, among a range of problems and societal issues resulting from
increasing populations in developing countries such as Nigeria, are widely recognized, and
population growth can therefore have a negative impact on economic growth. Studies such as
Dao (2012) and Okwori, et al. (2015) however argue that population growth has no significant
effect on economic growth.
 Given the contrasting findings regarding population growth and economic growth, the
fact of high poverty and unemployment in Nigeria, which were 7.2 % and 7.8 % in 2014, as
illustrated by the Central Bank of Nigeria (2014), and despite this, the declaration of Nigeria as
Africa's largest economy in 2014 due to GDP rebasing in 2014, indicates that more research on
population patterns and effects is clearly needed. This is especially true given Nigeria's continued
high population growth rate but the lack of signs of a slowdown or decline in economic growth.

Impact of Population Growth on Nigerian Economic Development

Population growth has two effects on economic development: it either supports economic
growth in rich economies or it retards economic growth in poor countries like Nigeria.

The rapid growth of the population will create a large demand for goods and services.
This will create a market for various commodities and services. . Food, clothing, and shelter will
be in higher demand. Furthermore, there will be an increase in the demand for children's
materials. A significant number of children are always present in a fast rising population.

Furthermore, according to Jhingan (2005), population growth has a negative impact on

per capita income. Population expansion has a three-fold effect on per capita income: It tends to
increase the pressure of people on land; it tends to raise the cost of consumer goods due to the
scarcity of cooperating factors to expand their supplies; and it tends to decrease capital
accumulation since expenses rise as the number of family members grows. The adverse effects
of rising per capita income on economic development are greater if the percentage of children in
a country's total population is high, such as in Nigeria. Children cost the economy a great deal of
money in terms of time and effort in raising them. That is why investment is the key to economic
development. However, in Nigeria, the resources are limited.

The researcher have found that rapid population growth has been identified as a major
factor that could affect future consumption. Rapid population increase, according to the
SCOFSNAS (1972), as quoted in Adediran (2012), limits the pace of increase of gross national
product by lowering the amount of saving and capital investment in the means of production. As
explained above, a growing population will stimulate demand and change investment patterns. A
large children population means large production of materials needed by the children. Many
producers will start to produce children's goods while the government will start providing more
facilities for children's welfare. Moreover, it is also found that the increasing population will also
increase the dependency ratio and workers will have more mouths to feed. There will be greater
dependents on the working population which in turn will be a social burden and economic liability
on the working population. Having met their basic needs and that of their dependent children will
leave little or nothing left out for them to consume. This will reduce their savings and capital
formation and will affect the socio-economic development of Nigeria.

Without increasing production, the demand will increase at a high cost of living. In
addition, many people will be buying few goods which will lead to upward movement of
commodity prices. Due to the increasing cost of living in Nigeria, people are demanding more
goods and services. Another effect of a rapidly increasing population is the low level of income
per head. The rapid increase in population will reduce the amount of income per head and as a
result, there will be a lower standard of living. And in Nigeria, it leads to consumption of sub
standard goods and inferior commodities generating a situation whereby many people live in
ghetto or slum areas. The consumption of substandard goods and inferior commodities leads to
the outbreak of diseases and epidemics in many parts of the country. Also, high population
growth without corresponding economic and social growth will lead to the over-reliance on social
services, which are already under-developed. To avoid this, the government has to plan to
improve the existing facilities and increase their spending on their maintenance.

V. CONCLUSION/RECOMMENDATIONS

Nigerian population is growing rapidly without corresponding growth in socio-economic

development. Rev. Thomas Malthus wrote about the possible impacts of a rapidly rising
population many years ago. As explained by him, he clarified that when population growth
outweighs food availability, population growth is stifled by war, disease, famine, and other factors.
Malthus’s proposition is relevant to the Nigerian situation. Economic and social development is
harmed by rapid population growth. Any increase in economic growth will be eaten up by the
population, which, as Malthus predicted, will have negative consequences for the people. Hence,
the need for this study.

On the basis of the findings of the present study, a number of policy recommendations
are made. Firstly, the Nigeria government should ensure that Nigeria’s rising population is
channeled into areas of the economy where they may be more fully utilized in bringing about
high rates of economic growth for the country. The government should make a concerted effort
to check population growth rate because any population growth that occurs too fast will have
diminishing returns or create a circumstance where economic growth is stagnating. In addition,
efforts should be made by the government and other concerned institutions to solve the
problems of unemployment, underemployment, inadequate social amenities etc. Furthermore,
the Nigeria government should increase access to affordable health care services so as to
reduce death rates since it negatively affects the population and therefore will negatively affect
Nigeria’s efforts to achieve increased economic growth.

Environmental law should be thoroughly enforced through task forces. The multinational
companies and other industries with tendencies to generate pollution should be forced to carry
out environmental impact assessment and put in place mitigation measures before carrying out
production. Also, improving the economic status of women would lead to improved financial
standing which could allow them to have fewer children. Women should be encouraged to be
educated; this will make the delay in marriage to occur naturally. Family planning is another
effective means of regulating birth. Awareness campaigns should be intensified in the country.
Finally, sufficient infrastructure including health and education should be provided by the Nigeria
government for a growing population as the population increases and makes a valued
contribution to economic growth.
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